12/29/2005-The Arrows of Fate, Part I
By Byron King
Greg's note: In a previous article entitled "A Hole In The Ground," published March 29, 2005, our intrepid correspondent Byron King informed us that none other than John Wilkes Booth, the man who assassinated President Abraham Lincoln, had spent time in the oil fields of Titusville, PA back in the 1860s. In this article, Byron revisits Titusville, Mr. Booth, the American Civil War, and the events surrounding the assassination of the 16th President of the United States. As Byron quotes the Chinese proverb, "There Is No Armor Against... 12/27/2005-The Underground Economy
By Mish Shedlock
Greg's note: In the following article, Mish takes a look at the underground economy. How robust is it anyway? Are illegal aliens costing us jobs? What plans are there to do something about it? What about Bush's "amnesty plan"? Is Bush serious? Are the Democrats any more serious? In the meantime, what can we expect? Mish attempts to answer those questions and more. Read on and find out. 12/25/2005-Liberty or Safety..?
By Greg Grillot
MERRY CHRISTMAS. Your editor praises and thanks Jesus. Alas, I am not so forgiving as He...so today I will forget all Holiday Cheer and make the case for impeaching the President. 12/23/2005-The 29th Day
By Justice Litle
Greg's note: Here's Whiskey ally Justice Litle with a revealing piece on the approaching "endgame." He defies the drooling Panglossian optimism that tells us to "hold in there - we'll figure something out. We always do!" He paints a picture of the post Peak Oil world. It seems inevitable...so what can we do? Let's profit... 12/22/2005-The Impending American Petrocalypse
By Jim Amrhein
Greg's note: Here's Jim on oil, and our precarious supply position. Specifically he talks about how supply narrowly outstrips demand - and how demand should shoot past supply early next year. He details 4 large threats to oil supply, dubbing these threats "chokepoints." 12/21/2005-Oil Supply Disruptions
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's note: In the following article, Mish ponders oil supply disruptions. 2005 witnessed Rita, Katrina, recent explosions in the United Kingdom, and pipeline disruptions in Iraq. What's next? Can anything else go wrong or have we weathered the storm? Mish takes a look at some very real and very scary possibilities. Read on and find out. Please e-mail any responses to your crude managing editor: greg@whiskeyandgunpowder.com 12/20/2005-Inflation Monster Captured
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's note: Mish is now claiming the "Inflation Monster" has been captured. Has he gone mad, or is there a better explanation? What about the price of oil and natural gas and housing and food? Shouldn't the Fed act to rein in rising costs? What about "price stability"? Bernanke likes "inflation targets" like the ECB. Is that really a good thing? What about the "Deflation Monster"? Has he been captured? Mish attempts to answer those questions and more. Read on and find out. 12/18/05-Oil, Gold and New Ways to Profit
By Dan Denning
Greg's note: Here's your weekend Whiskey. Below, Dan Denning analyzes the ratio between the price of crude and gold. As you might expect, he sees the price of both of those material assets rising over the long term. But what's that mean for the dollar - and what's the dollar got to do with the battle of Bastogne? 12/14/05-The Bra Boys and The Lebs
By Dan Denning
Greg's note: Here's Dan Denning with an analysis of the riots in Sydney. Looking for the origin of such loutish behavior, Dan consults the writings of James Madison in the Federalist Papers. With elections in Iraq in just a day, it's a good time to talk about Federalism and "faction." Little did we know it might apply to Western societies too. Madison shows that we can't eradicate social unrest without eradicating liberty. Nor can we insist on everyone having same opinion. The only way to get everyone to have the same opinion is to shoot the ones who think differently. 12/13/05- A Tipping Point on Jobs
By Mish Shedlock
Greg's note: Once again, Mish returns to look at jobs. GM, Ford, and now J.P. Morgan have all announced huge job cuts. Still, the November jobs report showed a gain of 215,000 jobs. Was this a strong report? What about the death of the U.S. consumer? It's been widely talked about for years, but hasn't happened yet. Does that mean it won't happen? How many jobs will be affected in a housing slump? Mish takes a look at Ameriquest Mortgage Co.'s recent decision to slash 1,500 jobs, and then looks ahead to what's next. Lots of questions, but as usual, Mish has answers. Read what he has to say and see if you agree. By the way, Mish talked about jobs and other things on his latest podcast on HoweStreet.com. Here is the link. Please e-mail any responses to "A Tipping Point on Jobs" to your blues moanin' managing editor: greg@whiskeyandgunpowder.com
12/12/05- The Big Three
By Mish Shedlock
Greg's note: In the following article, Mish looks at auto sales. GM and Ford are both slashing workers. GM: 30,000 - Ford: 6,500. Is that enough? Is it too much? What about future demand? Does cutting workers mean lowering output? What about GM bonds? Are they at risk, and if so, by how much? How much cash on hand does GM have? Can GM weather a Delphi strike? Mish answers those questions, but has an important question of his own that he does not know the answer to. See if you can answer Mish's question in bold at the end of this article. Please e-mail any responses to "The Big Three" to Greg Grillot: greg@whiskeyandgunpowder.com 12/10/2005-The Fall of China...and What it Means For America
By Chris Mayer
Greg's note: Here's the first Weekend Whiskey! I've got a couple exciting things for you today, so please read the whole thing and shoot me an e-mail with any opinions or complaints about this latest addition to the Whiskey repertoire...what better way to inaugurate our new shot than an essay from our buddy Chris Mayer. He takes a look at China's past and the nature of empires...and then asks what's in store for China's future...as always, send e-mails to your unbathed managing editor here: greg@whiskeyandgunpowder.com 12/8/2005-Bad Money Drives Out Good Science
By Byron King
Greg's Note: It has been about one year since we published our first Whiskey & Gunpowder. Looking back, we have written quite a bit about energy issues, and in particular about oil depletion. Byron King's first article, which is available in the archives, was entitled "The Ghost of Colonel Drake." In that article, Byron described the history of the world's first commercial oil well, drilled in Titusville, Pa., in 1859, and asked if the dawn of the oil age can teach us anything as we begin to appreciate that there is a dusk out there. 12/7/2005-Housing Peaks in Fresno (and other places...)
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's note: Mish emphatically claims housing has peaked. Has it? Some recent reports say Mish is wrong and we glide into a plateau. Are national averages and year-over-year gains the way to look at it, or is there more behind the manic "Mish Madness"? In this article, he takes a good, hard look at Fresno, Calif. 12/6/2005 - Stated Income Fraud
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's note: In the following article, Mish attacks his favorite subject: housing.
How much fraud is there and what does it mean? What about stated income loans?
Mish has some good sources, so don't just take his word for it -- read what a national mortgage broker has to say about fraud in the industry. 12/2/2005 - Tomorrow's "Air" Traffic Control
Greg's Note:Here's Jim, dishing out another heaping plate of scorn to the privacy-impinging surveillants that surround us at all times. Below he details how certain cellular phones - through the seemingly helpful goal of tracking collective traffic patterns - could easily track an individual's movement. 11/30/2005 - Bernanke's Looming Emergencies
Greg's note: Here's Dan Denning with a cheery essay on our economic future under Bernanke. Whiskey readers with us from the beginning will remember that we launched this dainty little e-letter off Dan's newsletter, Strategic Investment. In any case, Dan opens with baseball - and how unlikely it is for a pitcher to throw a perfect game - 1 in 15,000. 11/29/2005 - Is It 1966 Again?
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's note: In the following article, Mish looks at the situation in Iraq and wonders: "Is it 1966 again?" Mish makes a strong case for it based on a comparison between what Republican Sen. George Aiken said in 1966 and what Congressman John P. Murtha, D-Pa., is saying now. The parallel certainly is striking. 11/28/2005 - Subprime Lender Cutting Jobs
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's note: In the following article, Mish discusses still more evidence that housing has peaked. What say the experts, anyway? Mish offers up a slew of opinions from both sides. The newest ominous evidence, however, is a key subprime lender cutting 10% of its work force. What about credit lending? How easy is that? Be sure to read on, because Mish has some humorous anecdotes to tell. 11/23/2005 - A ROADMAP TO FINANCIAL RUIN!
By Dr. Marc Faber
Greg's Note: It is one of my most cherished goals in life to someday pay a visit to the offices of Dr. Marc Faber in Chiangmai. If I can tear myself away from one the world's great natural wonders-beautiful Thai women-I'm sure to be party to an accurate preview of the world's economic and monetary future. But why wait!
11/18/2005-Fire In The Hole
By Byron King
Greg's Note: Byron King and I, plus two other strapping twenty-something Agora Financial editors and Byron's two children, recently traveled to Titusville, Pa., at the kind invitation of one of our Whiskey readers. Byron is an old oil field hand, been there - done that. But the rest of us wanted to see the Pennsylvania oil patch from the ground up. And did we ever! We were out in the wild woods, home to black bear and brown bobcat, stomping our way from one old oil well to another. What a trip! 11/15/2005 - Can GM Be Saved?
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's note: In the following article, Mish wonders if GM can be "saved." GM is at a 52-week low, its bonds are being smashed, and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. is not happy about its pension funding. Meanwhile, GM chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner has repeatedly declared that "bankruptcy isn't an option." Is bankruptcy an option? Heck, is bankruptcy the only option? Mish not only answers those questions, he also proposes five steps to "save" GM. Is he serious or is he off his rocker? 11/10/2005 - Legends of the Fall
By Jim Amrhein
Greg's note: Here Jim shoots a volley right to the Gunpowder party of our sweet namesake. Not that he dislikes Whiskey…but below, as is his wont, he uncovers at least two seeming ironies implicit in the animal
rights crowd. 11/09/2005 - The Trade Summit
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's note: In the following article, Mish discusses the recent failed trade summit in Argentina. The goal was lofty: to establish a free trade zone from Alaska to Chile. The summit ended without an agreement. What went wrong? Did Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez sink the effort, as some are reporting, or are there other factors at play? How does France fit into the world trade picture? What about the United Kingdom? Mish attempts to answer those questions and more. 11/07/2005 - The Education Gap
By Mike Shedlock
A CNN ARTICLE is asking, "Is the U.S. Becoming Hostile to Science?" Let's take a look at a few snips... 11/05/2005 - Crash Protection
By Byron King
PEAK OIL, PEAK OIL. Dad, how come you talk about Peak Oil all the time?" said my daughter. We were driving along the back routes of Pennsylvania's scenic Mercer County... 11/03/2005 - The Presidents Advisory Panel on Tax Reform
By Mike Shedlock
The panel's recommendations are a very good start at reform, but the proposals could in theory be even simpler (i.e., a flat tax or consumption tax). However, the modifications suggested by the panel... 11/02/2005 - Mussolini
By Byron King
HIS FULL NAME WAS Benito Amilcare Andrea Mussolini. He was born in the small village of Predappio, in Provenza Forlì, on July 29, 1883. He died at Giulino di Mezzegra, near Como, on April 28, 1945... 11/01/05 - Keep One Eye on the U.K.
By Mike Shedlock
KEEP WATCHING the news in the United Kingdom. The reason is simple. We seem to be following in the same economic footsteps, delayed by about a year or so... 10/28/2005 - Housing Evidence
By Mike Shedlock
"THE EVIDENCE SUGGESTS that people will borrow to buy this housing bubble until lending literaly seizes up," writes Russ Winter on Silicon Investor. Indeed. Let's take a look at some of that evidence... 10/24/2005 - One Nation, Under Dogma, Part II
By Jim Amrhein
Greg's note: Here's Jim's shot back to the detractors and supporters of his last Whiskey column called "Divided by the Divine…Again." 10/26/2005 - War and Empire
By Byron King
Today I write of an ancient war, that between Athens and Sparta. My source, if you do not already know what I am about to say, is a writer known as the "first historian," the incomparable Thucydides. 10/25/2005 - Can't Lose vs. Cashing Out
By Mike Shedlock
Whether or not Barrack has the right catalyst or not (personally, I think pure exhaustion caused by falling real wages will be the reason), the question has to be asked: Who would you rather believe? 10/24/2005 - One Nation, Under Dogma (Part 2)
By Jim Amrhein
There wasn't supposed to be a "Part 2" of this essay… However, we got so much feedback of all types (and from all sides) on One Nation, Under Dogma that my fellow editors and I felt that a "second coming" of sorts was warranted. Why? 10/18/2005 - The Saga at Delphi
By Mike Shedlock
The writing was on the wall last week when executives at Delphi asked the United Auto Workers union for substantial concessions, including a cut of more than two-thirds to wages and benefits, according to a union official's letter sent to Delphi UAW workers. 10/17/2005 - Ben Bernanke, "Inflation Fighter"
By MIke Shedlock
Some ideas are just too stupid to not comment on. Hyping $Ben Bernanke as an inflation fighter is one of those ideas. It's not just one person who lost his mind, either. Both Tom Schlesinger, executive director of the Financial Markets Center, and Mark Zandi, Economy.com chief economist, have simultaneously gone off the deep end in proposing that "Helicopter Drop" Bernanke is an "inflation fighter." 10/13/2005 - Oil Priced In Euros. Would It Matter?
By Mike Shedlock
What would happen if oil were priced in euros? Lately, everyone seems to be making a big deal out of that idea. Some people even think the war in Iraq was started because of a threat from Saddam Hussein to price oil in euros. 10/12/2005 - Personal Bankruptcies Soar
By Mike Shedlock
Mish takes a look at soaring bankruptcies. Is Katrina to blame? How about Rita? What happens down the road? Are more bankruptcies coming? What role does the credit card industry play in all of this? Mish answers those questions and more. Is Mish right or wrong? 10/11/2005 - Focus on Autos
By Mike Shedlock
Mish takes a look at the state of U.S. auto manufacturing, notably GM and Ford. Are they on the right track? What are all the problems at GM and are they solvable? GM says its pension plan is 100% funded. Is it? 10/06/2005 - The Wisdom of Richard Fisher
By Mike Shedlock
Mish takes a look at what Fed Governor Richard Fisher yaps about. Does he make any sense? Are interest rates headed higher, and how do his comments compare with those of Ben Bernanke? It seems that Fisher spews mostly nonsense, but says a few things that Mish sees as highly accurate. Does Fisher himself have any idea what he said? 10/05/2005 - Divided by the Divine...Again
By Jim Amrhein
Jim discusses the separation of church and state, citing the San Francisco ruling last month that the recitation in public schools of the Pledge of Allegiance as currently written is unconstitutional, because it contains an endorsement of religion in violation of the constitutional principle of "separation of church and state." 10/04/2005 - Will the Housing Bubble Fizzle or Pop?
By Mike Shedlock
Mish explores the question whether the housing bubble will fizzle or pop. Mish also takes a look at the consensus view that a soft landing is likely both in the United States and the United Kingdom. Are the coastal markets all we really have to worry about? Rising wages seem to be the key. Let's take a look. 09/29/2005 - Rita
By Mike Shedlock
Everyone breathed a sigh of relief when Rita hit. Was the damage really that minimal? Mish provides a few pictures to look at. Mish also takes a look at consumer sentiment and natural gas prices in the wake of Rita. The answers do not seem to be all that pretty and there was even more damage than meets the naked eye. Unfortunately, the full effects of Rita and Katrina have not yet been felt. There is another storm brewing and that one is financial. It will affect what everyone has to pay to heat their homes this winter. 09/28/2005 - Thoughts on the Davis-Bacon Act
By Mike Shedlock
Mish takes a look at the Davis-Bacon Act and the history behind it, and also takes a look at some of the articles critical of President Bush suspending the act in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Is Bush to be blamed for taking advantage of hurricane victims, as Sen. Edward Kennedy and others suggest, or was Bush justified in doing so under the "national emergency" clause? Mish takes a look at both sides 09/26/2005 - Depletion
By Byron King
Our intrepid correspondent Byron King sent us some thoughts on a recent article in The Rude Awakening by our colleague Eric Fry. And in the process, Byron shares with us some of what geologist M. King Hubbert told him many years ago. Can you spell "depletion?" 09/22/2005 - Why Has Gold Been Soaring Recently?
By Mike Shedlock
In the following discussion, Mike "Mish" Shedlock takes a look at why gold has started to soar of late. Mish provides a short version as well as a detailed longer version for those who want to know what is really happening behind the scenes... 09/19/2005 - Greed and Obfuscation in America's Atlantis
By Jim Amrhein
Jim writes about New Orleans, which has for years been nicknamed "the city that care forgot," owing to its mix of both opulent glamour and extreme decadence. How morbidly appropriate a moniker now, given the systemic failure at all levels to deal with Katrina's wrath. The most obvious question, of course, is this: Why wasn't New Orleans better prepared for the disaster everyone knew was coming someday? 09/14/2005 - Thoughts on Savings, Part II
By Mike Shedlock
Following is the second half of a two-part discussion about savings. In this follow-up, Mish takes a look at Ben Bernanke's viewpoint that there is a glut of savings and the problem is not that the United States is spending too much, but that the rest of the world is not consuming enough. This part will also take a look at the growing national debt and the impact of Katrina and offer some final comments on the cash flow of consumers. 09/13/2005 - Thoughts on Savings, Part I
By Mike Shedlock
Following is Part 1 in a two-part discussion about savings. In the following discussion, Mish takes a look at what savings are, as well as some charts and other supporting evidence of the unsustainable nature of a U.S. savings rate that has now gone negative. Part 2 will take a look at Ben Bernanke's viewpoint that there is a glut of savings and the problem is not that the United States is spending too little, but that the rest of the world is not consuming enough. Part 2 will also take a look at the growing national debt and the impact of Katrina and offer some final comments about the cash flow of consumers. 09/12/2005 - Are We Headed for a "Credit Derivatives Event?"
By Mike Shedlock
Mish addresses whether or not we are headed for yet another derivatives catastrophe. Mish reviews the current state of affairs in the derivatives world and then takes a look back at the massive derivatives failure at Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), a nearly disastrous event that shook the financial world. The results may startle you. 09/09/2005 - One Last Oil Boom...
By Byron King
Our intrepid correspondent Byron King has paid another visit to Titusville, Pa., the birthplace of the world's oil patch. Inspired by the Ghost of Col. Edwin Drake, Byron reflects on booms and busts as the world bumps up against the absolute geological limits of the "Peak Oil" phenomenon. 09/08/2005 - In Re: John Roberts, Part III
By Byron King
This is the week when Judge John Roberts was supposed to go before the Senate Judiciary Committee for his confirmation hearing on his nomination to sit on the U.S. Supreme Court. This has changed with the death over this past weekend of Chief Justice William Rehnquist. Now Judge Roberts has been nominated to the position of chief justice of the United States Supreme Court. Our intrepid correspondent Byron King has a few more thoughts on the subject. 09/07/2005 - Gimme Back My Bullets, Part II
By Jim Amrhein
Here's the second part of Jim's volley on our right to bear arms. Analyzing a tragic, despicable crime, he points out that the media and left wing pointedly misconstrued the situation. Jim goes on to give a persuasive -- and perhaps to some, controversial -- discussion of what he thinks is our most important (and also most threatened) right... 09/06/2005 - The Train They Call the City of New Orleans, Part II
By Mike Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock takes a good hard look at the good, the bad, the ugly, and the stupid about Hurricane Katrina and the devastation it caused in New Orleans and elsewhere. Part 1 focused on the good and the stupid. Part 2 below will focus on the bad and the ugly. Part 2 will also take a look ahead and see what the impacts down the road will be. 09/01/2005 - The Train They Call the City of New Orleans
By Mike Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock takes a good hard look at the good, the bad, the ugly, and the stupid about Hurricane Katrina and the devastation it caused in New Orleans and elsewhere. Part 1 focused on the good and the stupid. Part 2 below will focus on the bad and the ugly. Part 2 will also take a look ahead and see what the impacts down the road will be. 08/30/2005 - The World's Most Dangerous Economic Minds
By Chris Mayer
The 29th economic symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City began Thursday night in Jackson Hole, Wyo. This is a highly exclusive group of people; entrance is by invitation only. There are only about 100 attendees. I like to call it a Gathering of the World's Most Dangerous Economic Minds. 08/29/2005 - Concern Over Oil
By Mike Shedlock
By popular request, Mike "Mish" Shedlock takes a good, hard look at oil. Are oil prices too high? Is there an inventory supply glut? Should oil prices be targeted via interest rate policy? Mish attempts to address these questions and more starting with a brief discussion about "peak oil." 08/26/2005 - Letters to the Editor: Harvard and Empire
By Byron King
Some of Byron's recent articles have generated a lot of mail. Byron reads what you send me to send to him. He thinks about what you have to say, and in this article, he replies and comments. 08/25/2005 - Slouching Towards a Currency Crunch
By Sean Brodrick
As Sean looks at charts of major currencies lately, he notices that the old trends are changing. It seems that the U.S. dollar is growing increasingly weaker as the Canadian dollar grows stronger. 08/23/2005 - Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom Part II
By Mike Shedlock
Mish takes a look at lending practices and fraud in the real estate business. This is part 2 of a 2-part expose addressing lending practices, fraud, and credit rating agencies. This part takes a good hard look at credit rating agencies and Fannie Mae, and also includes an earnings report surprise from a mortgage loan originator. 08/22/2005 - History and its Footnotes
By Byron King
What do the history of salt, the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, and Tsar Alexander II of Russia have to do with a bereaved mom down in Texas protesting the war in Iraq? Byron shares his thoughts on all of the foregoing, and more. 08/18/2005 - Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?
By Mike Shedlock
Mish takes a look at lending practices and fraud in the real estate business. He even has a national mortgage broker willing to speak on the record about some of the fraud that he has seen. Right now, no one cares. Rest assured that nearly everyone will care when this trash heap explodes. Following is Part 1 of a two-part expose. 08/17/2005 - A Discussion With Androcles
By Mike Shedlock
Mish responds to Androcles, (Andy), a poster on one of the stock message boards that he runs. Unlike others who think hyperinflation is coming in conjunction with a housing crash, Androcles argues that the economy is stronger than anyone thinks on account of the underground economy, and that there will be no housing bust because of that. 08/16/2005 - Gold's Honest Discipline
By Mike Shedlock
This is Part 1 in a series of articles by Mike "Mish" Shedlock on money supply, gold, the definition of money, and other related topics. There is no set time frame for these articles, but please be sure to follow along as Mish attempts to wrestle with these serious issues. This installment will deal with the sad state of affairs in our current fiat system with reckless expansion of money backed by nothing, to the detriment of the masses. 08/15/2005 - In Re: John Roberts, Part II
By Byron King
In a previous article in Whiskey & Gunpowder, we told you that our intrepid correspondent Byron King was a Harvard classmate of Judge John G. Roberts, the man recently nominated by President George W. Bush to be a justice of the U.S. Supreme Court. Here, he continues with his story. 08/09/2005 - A Real Morale Booster on Jobs?
By Mike Shedlock
Mish wonders how firing people boosts morale within a company. He then ponders how trade jobs related to housing will remain strong even if new home construction takes a tumble. He ends with a musing on investment demand for Gold. 08/04/2005 - In Re: John Roberts, Part I
By Byron King
It turns out that our intrepid correspondent Byron King was a Harvard classmate of Judge John G. Roberts, the person recently nominated by President George W. Bush to be a justice of the U.S. Supreme Court. He comments on his former classmate for the sake of history. 08/03/2005 - King Fahd, Hummers, and Horrific Explosions
By Sean Brodrick
Sean discusses Monday's spike in oil prices, the death of Saudi Arabi's King Fahd, and the horrific explosion and fire at BP's refinery in Texas City. The real question, though, is what this means for India and China. 08/02/2005 - What Housing Bubble?
By Mike Shedlock
Neil Barsky, managing partner of Alson Capital Partners, LLC, wrote an absurd opinion piece about housing in the Commentary section of the July 28 online issue of The Wall Street Journal in which he claims there is no housing bubble. Mish responds with vehemence. 07/27/05 - Gun Control: Showdown at the PC Corral
By Jim Amrhein
Today Jim tackles gun control. Analyzing a tragic, despicable crime, he points out that the media and left wing pointedly misconstrued the situation. Jim goes on to give a persuasive -- and perhaps to some, controversial -- discussion of what he thinks is our most important (and also most threatened) right... 07/26/2005 - Oil Shock
By Sean Brodrick
Sean details the somewhat dismal possible (probable?) future of oil, explaining that the disconnect between what oil experts are saying and what oil is actually doing is widening to Grand Canyon proportions. 07/25/2005 - Thoughts on the RMB Repeg
By Mike Shedlock
On July 21, China repegged the RMB to a basket of currencies. Mish gives his opinions on the subject, and offers up those of Kathy Lien, Mark Hulbert, and Stephen Roach as well. 07/22/2005 - A Beautiful Mistake
By Byron King
We did not know that the government of China had allowed, on a limited basis, its citizens to own the mineral rights to oil under their lands. So it came as news to us that the government of China had recently seized several thousand oil wells from private owners in a province west of Beijing. 07/21/2005 - Inflationists Respond
By Mike Shedlock
Mike responds to several individuals who have entered the "deflation debate," including Robert Blumen, and David Petch. Mike counters their arguments and announces he still expects to see a prolonged period in which deflation is predominate. 07/19/2005 - The Rise To Ruin
By Dan Denning and Marc Faber
Dan discusses the decline of civilization, and the conflicts occurring between the West and China. Then, Dr. Marc Faber points out that slower global growth (precipitated by a China slowdown) is not necessarily deflationary. In fact, Dr. Faber makes a compelling case for why inflation is a matter of time, regardless of low long-term bond yields and the Fed's conundrum. 07/13/2005 - The Kondratieff Cycle
By Mike Shedlock
Mish discusses the Kondratieff cycle of deflation, and the implications of the K-Cycle for our economy right now. Look at the end of the article for Greg's Note, which includes a roundtable e-mail discussion between himself, Chris Mayer, Dan Denning, Justice Litle, Byron King, and Addison Wiggin. 07/12/2005 - Risk Management, OPM, and Volatility
By Mike Shedlock
Mish explores the following question in depth: How do risk management, other people's money, and volatility interrelate? He also warns against the practice of selling options in this market. 07/08/2005 - UK/US Housing and the Coming Liquidity Trap
By Mike Shedlock
Mish writes about how unemployment in the UK could further undermine the country's fragile housing market, and how the US could follow in suit. He also discusses silver and gold positions, and how to profit from them. 07/06/2005 - Union Oil Fever
By Byron King
Leave it to our intrepid correspondent Byron King to find a connection between the Pennsylvania oil patch of the 1860s and 1870s and the recent effort by the China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) to take over Unocal. Darned if one of the founders of the former Union Oil Co. was not a contemporary of Col. Edwin L. Drake. 07/01/2005 - The Deflation Debate Heats Up
by Mike Shedlock
Mish gives 10 reasons why hyperinflation is coming. He throws down the gauntlet (again) in the great "flation" debate...now there's a whole box of prime beef on the line... 06/29/2005 - Oil: The 1970s Redux
By Chris Mayer
Chris describes the origin and early history of the Middle Eastern oil industry (as opposed to Byron's meme of Pennsylvanian oil.) Chris goes on to describe the outrageous wealth that the Mid-Eastern oil sheiks accumulated when the price of oil rose in the 1970s...but what happened to all of that oil money? 06/28/2005 - The New American Feudalism
By Jim Amrhein
Jim writes about a Supreme Court ruling that states have the right under the "eminent domain" provision of the law to force the sale of privately owned property directly to private-enterprise interests in the name of a region's economic prosperity. What this means is that you've just lost all your rights to whatever real estate you've worked and struggled so hard to secure for yourself and your posterity. 06/24/2005 - Global Warming: Chronicle of a Disaster Foretold
By Marc Faber
Marc Faber discusses a heated topic, global warming. He gives a history of the science and what political leaders have done to rectify it, and suggests what needs to be done in reaction. 06/22/2005 - Oil: Looking In All the Right Places
By Byron King
Byron presents us with an article about the early days of an oil boom, except this boom is happening in the here and now. It involves some rock formations of Pennsylvanian age, but not those located within the Keystone State. Instead, Byron introduces us to ancient geology and current events up in the Maritimes of eastern Canada, the northeast part of the North American continent. 06/20/2005 - Inflation: Touching Sentiment
By Mike Shedlock
Mish lists questions that he would like inflationists to address and asks how -- with falling wages and stagnant jobs -- the demand for money AND the willingness to lend it can be infinite. He also further probes recent commends made by the Fed. 06/15/2005 - There Ought (Not) To Be a Law
By Jim Amrhein
Jim discusses the plethora of federal legislation in existence, a great deal of which is outdated, irrelevant, and unknown. He poses the question: what is the point of having so many laws if most of us don't even know what they are? 06/14/2005 - Exceptional Conditions, and the Housing Bubble/Point-Counterpoint
By Mike Shedlock
Mish ponders the existence of a housing bubble in the US, and discusses the economics of the European Union. He discusses the symptoms of ECV (exceptional condition virus), and whether the US is in danger of catching this strain. 06/13/2005 - Thoughts on Volatility
By Mike Shedlock
Mish analyzes volatility by comparing yields on corporate junk bonds and 10 year Treasurys. Then he lambasts various elaborate credit specualtion tools... 06/09/2005 - Stupid Comments by the Fed (and Others, Too)
By Mike Shedlock
Mish pokes some fun a the Federal Reserve bankers - and then he jabs Donald Rumsfeld in an entertaining piece about the recent abundance of stupidity in the markets. 06/08/2005 - The Battle of Tsushima: The Sound of the Guns
By Byron King
Byron continues his narrative of the events at Tsushima, which culminated in the military engagement of the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905. Byron also begins to explain why, directly or indirectly, a century later, we are still living with the consequences of that far-off war, and in particular of its last battle in the Tsushima Straits. 06/03/2005 - Same Data - Different Interpretation
By Mike Shedlock
Mish argues that deflation, not inflation is in the cards for America. In this essay he takes on Jim Puplava, a prominent inflationist, and shows that the data actually supports the deflationary viewpoint. 05/31/2005 - Illegal Immigration: This Land is Your Land - Even If It Isn't...
By Jim Amrhein
Jim looks at the problems in society and the economy that are caused by illegal immigration. He then explains the origin of the Minuteman Project, and what happened in Arizona. 05/26/2005 - Curing Bubble Blindness
By Justice Litle
The cover of FORTUNE features the words "REAL ESTATE GOLD RUSH" in bold caps. Meanwhile, The Washington Post reports that even Playboy Bunnies are turning in their tails for real estate licenses and one out of every four houses bought last year was, ahem, investment property ("speculative purchases" is just too crass for polite company). 05/25/2005 - The Battle of Tsushima: Odyssey to Tsushima
By Byron King
The engagement at Tsushima controlled the destiny of Asia for many decades thereafter. And it is not overstating the case to divide much of the history of the modern world between that which occurred before Tsushima and what occurred afterward. 05/24/2005 - Escalated Nonsense
By Mike Shedlock
Mish argues that placing tariffs or limiting Chinese exports is a short-sighted idea that won't have the beneficial effecet that the protectionists think it will. In fact, Mish thinks tariffs are a terrible idea... 05/19/2005 - Consumerism: The Problem With Saturated Markets in Western Societies
By Marc Faber
Concerning the phenomenon of saturated markets, Richard Tomkins published recently a very interesting column in the Financial Times entitled, "Shop until you stop: The problem of consumer satiety" (April 12, 2005). 05/18/2005 - Will the Government Sell Bread?
By Mike Shedlock
Mish notes that the office of Housing and Urban Developments wants to get in on the subprime mortgage lending business to compete against the commercial lenders in this spehere. He also points out more chilling aspects of the massive housing bubble. 05/12/2005 - The Influence of Alfred Thayer Mahan: Naval History
By Byron King
Alfred Thayer Mahan's book on sea power included his observations on naval issues and his deductions, conclusions, and theories, all of which were so remarkable as to be astonishing. Or one might also say that in 1890, Capt. Mahan told a lot of people exactly what they wanted to hear. 05/11/2005 - China Courts Economic Disaster
By Chris Mayer
It is widely acknowledged that China is keeping its currency artificially cheap. By doing so, it is alleged that China is giving its exporters an unfair advantage against struggling U.S. manufacturers, who are having their lunch eaten by cheaper Chinese imports. 05/10/2005 - National ID Cards: Driving Toward the United State of America
By Jim Amrhein
Jim discusses the possibility of a National ID Card, and what its implications would be. Imagine if one card could give the others access to the lives, travels, readings, purchases, and medical histories of U.S. citizens. 05/05/2005 - End of the Line for the Disruptive Technology of Its Day: the Railroad
By Dan Denning
Congress passed the Social Security Act on Aug. 14, 1935. But it had yet to be challenged -- and upheld -- by the Supreme Court. Based on the court's ruling on the Railroad Retriment Act, the prospects for Social Security and other pieces of Roosevelt's socialist agenda did not look good. Indeed, the court rapidly struck down other New Deal initiatives. 05/04/2005 - The Locality Must Yield
By Dan Denning
Dan takes you through the legal history of Social Security. Its early opponents on the Supreme Court correctly forecast that giving the federal government the power to levy taxes and regulation for the promotion of the "general welfare" would inevitably lead to unlimited requests by firms and political groups for special favors. 05/03/2005 - When a House is Not a Home
By Marc Faber
With the exception of the incorrigible optimists, most financial observers know that at some point, the excessive credit creation in the United States will backfire and lead to some sort of a crisis. But that is where our knowledge stops. We don’t know what might be the catalyst for the crisis, when it might happen, or in what form it might manifest itself. 04/28/2005 - The Myster of Mr. Wu and the 12-Cent Lighters
By Greg Grillot
In China, Greg tries to answer the following questions:
1. How did Mr. Wu's pension jump 900% in 13 years when the average rate of inflation loomed under 5% annually over the same time period?
2. How can you buy a disposable cigarette lighter in Beijing for 12 cents?
3. Why does the love of my life have to pay back the money she borrows on her credit cards? 04/27/2005 - Innovators of the World, Unite!
By Dan Denning
The A380 finally made it off the ground today. I had my doubts that the behemoth would actually be airworthy. In fact, I didn't think it would make it off the ground. But there it was, up in the French sky, all 421 metric tons of it. 04/26/2005 - Surveillance: Keeping "Track" of Trust
By Jim Amrhein
In a small town in CA, children in grade school are required to wear radio-trackable ID badges while on school grounds. Jim explores the idea of GPS systems monitoring everyday people. 04/22/2005 - There Was Never A Good War or a Bad Peace: Ben Franklin
By Byron King
As with so many other aspects of his life, Benjamin Franklin -- the most distinguished scientific and literary American of his age -- was also the very first American diplomat. He was not the second or the third, but the first -- the pathfinder of American diplomacy, as of so much else. 04/20/2005 - Old Mistrust, New Dependence
By Dan Denning
Japan and China have a simmering argument left over from World War II. But it really goes back thousands of years. In its current incarnation, it's an argument over who will be more important to Asia's future. All the signs point to China's emergence. But both countries have a lot at stake. 04/15/2005 - Water, Water Everywhere, but Enough to Drink?
By Kevin Kerr
Safe water is scarce, and demand is surging for cultivators of nature's most important resource. Yes, oil is important, but not as important as staying alive. Water is something we take for granted, and it's a growing problem that nobody talks about at length. 04/14/2005 - Courting Infamy
By Justice Litle
he Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 stands as perhaps the most destructive example of boneheaded protectionism in U.S. history. There is even a memorial Web page at the U.S. State Department site. 04/13/2005 - Easy Money
By Marc Faber
What these U.S. monetary policies failed to do, however, was to lift capital spending and produce gains in private sector employment. (The U.S. government, on the other hand, has added almost a million jobs since 2000.) In fact, capital spending is still below the level of 2000 and, as a percentage of GDP, is at one of its lowest levels ever. 04/07/2005 - Woodrow Wilson's World
By Byron King
During his two terms as president of the United States, Woodrow Wilson inalterably changed the face of not just the United States, but of the world. The community of nations today represents a world still spinning on a Wilsonian axis. 04/06/2005 - Eurotrash
By Justice Litle
The euro is a wonderful idea, floated by a charming group of countries. Many thought it would never happen, that it couldn't be pulled off even if it did happen, that the transition would be a nightmare. 03/31/2005 - Demography Is Destiny
By John Mauldin
Now let's look away from the United States, and focus on the rest of the world. If we think the retirement problems facing the United States are severe, then the facts suggest the rest of the developed world is facing a major crisis. Over the next few decades, we are going to see a shift in economic and political power that is simply staggering in its implications. 03/29/2005 - Oil: A Hole in the Ground
By Byron King
It was not just a good oil well; it was a great one. From its first days of production, the well flowed at a rate of more than 300 barrels per day of Pennsylvania-grade crude petroleum. Each of those barrels of amber-colored liquid sold for about $10, equal to half an ounce of gold back in those pre-Civil War days in the year 1860. 03/28/2005 - Animal Rights: "Righting" A Wrong
By Jim Amrhein
In this article, Jim makes a bold statement: Animals have no rights. Humans have rights because we guarantee them to each other, but no animals do any such thing. 03/23/2005 - Innovation, Savings, and Demand
By Justice Litle
What do these developments have in common? They are all focused on natural resources, and they highlight the intersection of three key forces that form the heart and soul of capitalism. What are those three forces? Drumroll, please...they are innovation, savings, and demand. 03/22/2005 - Stagflation Rides Again
By Marc Faber
Today's essay from Dr. Marc Faber is timely. The early market reaction to the Fed's decision to raise rates a quarter of a point is telling. Gold fell. Bonds fell. And stocks fell. The market sees inflationary pressures at a time of lukewarm economic growth, or what we call stagflation. 03/21/2005 - Peak Oil: Geology is Destiny
By Byron King
Peak Oil is a real phenomenon, based on hard science. Ignore it at your peril. At root, the Peak Oil guys are right. How can I emphasize it properly? OK, they are "right, right, right." Everybody else is "wrong, wrong, wrong." These latter folks -- who are wrong, by the way -- are the equivalent of the violin section that played at the burning of Rome. 03/16/2005 - The Gods Must Be Crazy
By Fred Sheehan
Here's an essay from Fred Sheehan, frequent contributor to Marc Faber's Gloom Boom and Doom Report, detailing the recent history of the Nobel Prize winners in economics. Like Byron's transcontinental railroad through earth history, Fred deftly unearths a common thread woven through the many of the Prize holders... 03/10/2005 - U.S. Oil Consumption: Pollution Absolution
By Jim Amrhein
Jim explains why oil consumption is actually good for the environment, and clears up some misguided assertions about U.S. oil consumption. 03/09/2005 - The Sea Change in Monetary Thought
By Chris Mayer
For a long time, it was financial orthodoxy that a strong nation needed a strong currency. And a strong currency was one that could be redeemed in specie -- metals like gold and silver. Indeed, it was seen almost as a moral mandate, and a proud country pointed to its currency as a sign of its strength. 03/01/2005 - Geology: The Last Foot of Rail, the End of the Line
By Byron King
If you want to think about geology, Vancouver is as good a place to ponder Earth science as any town in any land. The mountain cores of Vancouver and environs are remarkable products of Mesozoic sediment deposition and Tertiary uplift, a fancy-sounding way of characterizing the past 300 million years or so of Earth's history. 02/22/2005 - Of Nukes and Ammonium Nitrate
By Byron King
In the arcane world of deciphering diplomatic language, particularly when it comes from the North Koreans, having "manufactured nukes" may or may not be the same thing as "possessing nuclear weapons." Still, the North Korean government has made an important public announcement about an important strategic development, and serious people must take it seriously. 02/11/2005 - Surveillance: Attack of the Cultural Marxists
By Dan Denning
Jim's piece yesterday pointed out vital economic networks can be appropriated, regulated, and exploited by the government, usually to the disadvantage of you and me. There may be plenty of innocent reasons for government interest in GPS. But the logical conclusion of government regulation of the nation's telecommunications network is government control over that network. 02/08/2005 - Surveillance: GPS=Governmental Power Swipe?
By Jim Amrhein
Jim discusses the government's use and abuse of GPS, or Global Positioning System, and the connection between terrorism and GPS. He explains that GPS system opens the door to what may soon amount to continuous surveillance of everyone. 02/02/2005 - Barrels of Oil, Miles of Mud
By Byron King
This was, in retrospect, a monumental achievement and a date that would change the destiny of the world. But no one understood it at the time. So Drake's well, just down the road from the sleepy village of Titusville, Pa., was, more than anything else, a local curiosity. 01/31/2005 - Home Equity: Easy Cash
By Byron King
Byron discusses the massive, and growing, business of lenders convincing homeowners to borrow funds that are secured by the value of their real estate. The WSJ states that "home equity originations climbed 35% last year to a record $431.3 billion" and that "lenders are looking for new ways to boost this market." 01/25/2005 - The March of the Progressives
By Chris Mayer
In 1900, William Jennings Bryan ran for the office of president of the United States. His campaign was largely one of anti-imperialism. Just two years before, the country was embroiled in a conflict with the aging ex-superpower that was Spain. America's spoils from that war included various territories once under Spanish rule. Bryan thought that the United States had better not be in the business of empire. 01/20/2005 - The Road To Damascus
By Dan Denning and Lore Rees-Mogg
Dan Denning and Lore Rees-Mogg voice their opinions on what will happen in Bush's second term, now that he is no longer accountable to voters. They discuss Iran and the Iraqi elections, and probable outcomes. 01/18/2005 - Anatomist of a Revolution
By Dan Denning
Which comes first, then, capital or innovation? Foster suggests that innovation is not possible without capital. But he also shows that it takes innovation to nurse an illiquid capital asset like real estate into a liquid war chest for the development of business and the creation of new jobs and wages. 01/14/2005 - Dr. Doom's Forecasts
By Marc Faber
Here is an exchange of letters Marc Faber had with the economist and deflationist Gary Shilling. In Dr. Faber's reply he covers a lot of ground. It includes the prospects for a war with Iran, a military conflict with China, and the industrial infrastructure needs of Asia. 01/11/2005 - Oil Wells and Family Trees
By Byron King
Edwin Drake's oil well, drilled not far from this small town in 1859, is credited as having ushered in the modern industrial era. Singular as it may be in history, however, the modern industrial era was not just waiting in the lobby of time, fully dressed and ready to march onto the world stage at the curtain call of the Colonel. 01/06/2005 - Risk and Insurance: Disaster Futures
By Avinash Persaud
Avinash poses the question: can a country take out financial insurance against macro-risks like currency instability or global terrorism? He begins by discussing the link between the personal insurance you and I take out every day and financial futures markets. 01/03/2005 - When Currency Empires Fall
By Avinash Persaud
Today, the spoils of reserve currency status are more clearly visible than ever before. If your currency is a reserve currency, you can pay for things by writing checks, which nobody cashes. You can spend more than you earn to a far greater extent than anyone else. | 
