Dan Amoss 
Dan Amoss, CFA is managing editor for Strategic Investment and a contributing editor for Whiskey & Gunpowder. Dan joined Agora Financial from Investment Counselors of Maryland, investment advisor for one of the top small-cap value mutual funds over the past 15 years. As a buy-side analyst, Dan refined his value investing approach by meeting with corporate executives, sell-side analysts, and writing proprietary research for the fund’s management team.
Dan brings to Strategic Investment the unique experience of an institutional background and a drive to seek out the most attractive investments within favored "big picture" trends. He develops investment ideas for SI readers with a global network of geopolitical and macroeconomic analysts. Dan holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation, a professional designation widely recognized within the investment community. Details about the CFA Program can be found here: http://www.cfainstitute.org/cfaprogram/viewbook/site/whatis/whatis.html |
ARCHIVES
03/19/2008 - A Keynes Mutiny
Greg’s Note: Does the Fed try to regulate the market, or is it the other way around? Strategic Short Report’s Dan Amoss believes that the government does not have the power to bend an economy, yet it certainly seems as if the Fed believes it does. We’ve seen even more rate cuts and inflation could soon be sweeping through our economy, sending our dollar even farther down. 01/18/2008 - A Short Story
Greg’s Note: Today, Strategic Investment’s Dan Amoss is launching his Strategic Short Report. In his new service, Dan will provide readers with the knowledge and tools they’ll need to successfully play the stock shorting game. Here is an example of a company Dan spotted a few months ago that seemed like an ideal short candidate. 01/10/2008 - The End of the Petrodollar Trade
Greg’s Note: Speculation on the oil market has been unchanged for the past several years. Strategic Investment’s Dan Amoss explains why the way people speculate on this highly volatile and lucrative market is wrong and needs to be reexamined. Will $100 oil finally convince people to change their thought process, or are things going to stay this way forever. 12/17/2007 - We Can Rebuild It
Greg’s Note: Everyone is talking about the financial companies that have gotten themselves into a lot of trouble over the subprime mortgage problem. Were they stupid? Maybe. Were they reckless? Definitely. Dan Amoss has decided to get off their back for one minute and offer some advice on how they could fix themselves and their businesses. There’s a lot of work to be done, and something better happen soon. 11/29/2007 - A Real Estate Bubble Where? It May Surprise You…
Greg’s Note: We’ve seen it happen a few times here in the last decade. When a market expands as rapidly as some do, they are bound to burst. We don’t seem to learn from our mistakes, and as Strategic Investment’s Dam Amoss tells us, the rest of the world doesn’t either. There are more real estate bubbles on the way, and plenty investors may soon fine themselves taking a bath. 11/05/2007 - Everything and the Kitchen Sink
Greg’s Note: Bank announcements have been grim, rate cuts have come, and we shouldn’t expect things to get better anytime soon. Dan Amoss dissects some of the misleading information we’ve received from investment banks and how it has turned out to be much worse than anticipated. Will the rate cuts help, or are we just in for more and more inflation? 10/18/2007 - Bernanke’s Choice
Greg’s Note: Dan Amoss is here with another chilling tale from the Fed. The subprime mortgage villain is back, and he’s brought borrowed liquidity with him. These two working together could threaten to bring the entire banking system to its knees. Something has to be done, and only one man can do it. 10/11/2007 - Inflation Hedges
Greg’s Note: Dan Amoss returns today with a shot of Whiskey for the bloated banks of America. He says that lenders everywhere are suffering from the housing bubble fallout, and they’ll be afraid to let anyone borrow from them in the near future. And any government bailout is sure to fail. But Dan also suggests a few things you can do to protect your assets. 09/27/2007 - The Future of Iraq’s Oil Production
Greg’s Note: Strategic Investment’s Dan Amoss explores how government intervention in oil production has nasty effects. He starts out in Iraq and then casts his gaze to Venezuela, Nigeria and Kazakhstan affects the world’s oil supply. 09/13/2007 - Indigestion on Wall Street
Greg’s Note: Strategic Investment’s Dan Amoss returns to cast an analytic gaze at the overarching arm of credit creation. It seems that every possible stream of future cash flow has recently been spackled together in a securitization and then sold off to the highest bidder. This brings Dan to discuss an interesting idea from George Soros — now it seems that the financial markets have started to shape the real economy, rather than vice versa. That seems pretty darned odd — reminded me of that part of quantum physics where the act of observing something tiny fundamentally altered the tiny thing… 08/02/2007 - Offshore Drillers Refinancing
Greg’s Note: Strategic Investment’s Dan Amoss returns with more analysis on offshore drillers. He thinks that you’ll see more leveraged recapitalization and consolidation in the sector – and if not, you’ll see private equity firms step in. He details the recent Transocean and Global Santa Fe merger and makes the case that the offshore drillers are still pretty cheap – especially when you take into account their promising future cash flows. 07/11/2007 - Costs Spiral for LNG Projects
Greg's Note: Strategic Investment's Dan Amoss offers his analysis on America's domestic natural gas picture. First, he covers the possibility of increasing imported gas from places like Russia, Canada and Iran. Large increases in imports seem unlikely in the near future. So he concludes that the demand for gas will be met with increased domestic drilling — especially in "unconventional" fields. And, you guessed it — such an increase in domestic drilling ought to bode well for drill rig makers and drilling services companies… 06/25/2007 - Corruption Smothers Oil Industry in Iraq
Greg’s Note: Strategic Investment’s Dan Amoss provides you with a look at how rampant corruption has decimated the Iraqi Oil industry. In the ethnically Kurdish north, massive siphoning and smuggling has destroyed the vast network of pipelines. Further, in the Shia dominated south, tens of millions of dollars worth oil get smuggled every week. And then there’s the massive Iranian influence in Basra… Finally, Dan takes a look at the underground status of Iraqi Oil production. 06/13/2007 - Big Growth Opportunities in Wellhead Equipment
Greg’s Note: The other day I found $25 in a pocket of my dirty shorts. Disregarding the fact that I owed it to Jim Amrhein, I went out and spent it on pinball and vodka. Made for a nice little respite. You might be surprised to find out that, with new technology, we can now wring “forgotten” oil and gas out of old fields. Kind of like that $25. Strategic Investment’s Dan Amoss presents his take on this “enhanced oil recovery” below. 06/07/2007 - From Russia With Love
Whether it’s reasserting control over strategic energy supplies, allegedly ordering the assassination of enemies like Alexander Litvinenko, or silencing all dissent in the press, Russian President Vladimir Putin is behaving like a classic James Bond villain. He claims to be taking these actions for the benefit of the Russian people, but I suspect he’s looking out for himself and his buddies. 05/16/2007 - Dhandho Investing in Commodity Companies
Greg’s Note: Can a commodity company have a moat? What if commodity prices eventually go down, approaching the cost of production? Strategic Investment’s Dan Amoss addresses those questions today, providing specific analysis of Mittal, BHP Billiton and the Brazilian iron giant CVRD. 04/26/2007 - Beware of Windfall Profits Taxes
Greg's Note: Dan Amoss from Strategic Investment returns today to discuss the global oil picture. He notes that, historically, technology hasn't reversed depletion in an oil field. He then points out that oil doesn't take its price as a "pure" commodity -- many other factors such as fear, politics and taxation make their ugly way into a barrel's cost. He then turns to the prospect of further political nastinesses in Nigeria, Venezuela, Algeria and beyond. 04/05/2007 - Leverage Blackens a Blue Chip
Greg's Note: Strategic Investment's Dan Amoss returns with a continuation of his analysis on New Century Financial Corp. The once strutting "New Shade of Blue Chip" has filed for bankruptcy, plummeted from the NYSE, dropped about 95% and has now settled on the pink sheets. What a mighty fall. Dan examines the problems with "asset-light" companies that overleverage themselves. And then he turns to the banks willing to lend to these "New Blue Chips." 03/23/2007 - Levered Technology, Unlevered Drillers
Greg's Note: Strategic Investment's Dan Amoss returns today with an extension of the private equity discussion opened by Byron King earlier this week. He compares Motorola and offshore drillers - and closes with a bit of polite advice for the private equity guys. 03/02/2007 - Revisit Fundamentals When the Market Panics
Greg's Note: What an odd week in the markets! Devoted to continuing coverage of the absurdities in life, Whiskey presents a macro-tinged analysis of this week's strange activity from Strategic Investment's Dan Amoss. 02/15/2007 - Accounting Reflects Housing Market Reality
Greg's Note: Are you worried about what might happen to subprime mortgages if the housing market continues to slide? Strategic Investment's Dan Amoss thinks the subprime lenders -- and their insurers -- ought to worry, if not outright panic. He details specific subprime lenders and a much-talked-of merger between two massive mortgage insurance co's. 01/09/2007 - Holding the Housing Market Bag, Part II
Greg's Note: Here's Strategic Investment's Dan Amoss with the second and final part on the risks in the private mortgage insurance industry. He looks at a specific company today, dissecting the numbers and reveals a very interesting type of investment: "return-free risk." Usually people want it the other way around. 01/08/2007 - Holding the Housing Market Bag, Part I
Greg's Note: Today Strategic Investment's Dan Amoss returns with the first of a two-part series on the private mortgage insurance industry. First he explains the origin of the private mortgage insurance market in America. He also points out that that industry seems to "hold the bag" if the housing market turns sour in the near future. 11/22/2006 - Peak Oil & Gas, Energy Cornucopia, and Reality, Part II
Greg’s Note: Today Dan Amoss returns with the second and final part of his series on Peak Gas. He details the gas drilling-production treadmill and points out that reserves decline even as more wells get drilled. Then he asks whose nat-gas forecast we ought to believe: The CEO of an aggressively expansive exploration and production company, or the rosy predictions coming out of CERA. 11/21/2006 - Peak Oil & Gas, Energy Cornucopia, and Reality, Part I
Greg's Note: Strategic Investment's Dan Amoss returns to throw his analysis on Peak Gas into the Whiskey mixer. He joins with Byron in the rebuttal of Peak Oil & Gas critics CERA. Dan compares geopolitical challenges to shaky reserve data. He ponders whether or not the international oil & gas markets follow the efficient market theories. Finally, he looks back to recent prognostications from CERA - and judges whether they ended up correct. 10/20/2006 - Paper Money and Energy Demand, Part 3
Greg’s Note: Dan Amoss returns with his third and final missive on the connection between fiat currency and energy demand. He specifically turns to state-controlled oil companies, which control the majority of world production. He dissects PETROBRAS, with an eye to whether or not they’ll use their future free cash flow for profitable exploration and production. Is PETROBRAS a good long-term investment? 10/09/2006 - Paper Money and Energy Demand, Part 2
Greg's Note: Dan Amoss returns with his discussion of the connection between fiat currency and Peak Oil. What happens when rampant dollar inflation intertwines with the global energy markets? After all, oil is priced in U.S. dollars. Can foreign central banks afford to continue stockpiling Treasuries and dollars? After addressing these questions, Dan compares private oil majors with quasi-private, partially state-owned oil companies. Specifically, he looks at Exxon versus PetroChina...and talks about their prospects as long-term investments. 10/02/2006 - Paper Money and Energy Demand, Part 1
Greg's Note: Dan Amoss returns today to offer you a report on the recent developments in the natural gas market. He attacks from the starting point of fiat currency in a free market - and how that combination can beget some strange stuff. Is the demand side of the natural gas and oil industries truly free? How can fiat currency help stoke the price of a commodity in a free market? What's a better allocation of genius - crunching price data in a hedge fund or learning geology to find more natural gas? 09/01/2006 - Are Homebuilder Stocks Actually Cheap?
Greg's Note: Strategic Investment's Dan Amoss returns to ask us whether homebuilder stocks are a rosy value...or a whorish value trap. He takes a look at Toll Brothers and asks if we've reached a bottom. This is a superb complement to Mish's housing analysis featured in these pages. 08/09/2006 - Revisiting the Energy Drink Bubble
Greg's Note: Dan Amoss returns with a follow-up to his last Whiskey shot on Hansen Natural. He's too humble to mention it, but a crafty W&G subscriber read Dan's previous essay and took it upon himself to short the stock. The reader wrote in to tell us he made a 27% gain in 6 days. Pretty darned good methinks. Nice work, guys. In any case, Dan explains how Hansen shed about 35% this Monday after announcing enviable quarterly results. He uses this example to explain some common earnings-time investor mistakes. 07/21/2006 - Stock Options and Fiat Currency
Greg’s Note: Whiskey’s newest correspondent Dan Amoss returns today to connect stock options grants and the Federal Reserve’s unstated penchant to inflate. He even slips in a corollary to the Constitution…Who suffers when options dilute shareholder value? Who suffers when inflation dilutes purchasing power? Dan addresses those questions. He also has a timely analysis of Braodcomm, which took quite a pummeling today upon missing earnings. 06/26/2006 - Bubbles in Natural Gas or Energy Drinks?
Greg's Note: What's more important to America over the long term - natural gas or energy drinks? Today, Strategic Investment's Dan Amoss returns to shed some light on that question. He describes the important differences between bull markets and bubbles with a discussion on investing vs. speculating. We return to the tech bubble of the late 90's and ask if we see a similar phenomenon in a red-hot energy drink stock...which brings us to this final question: "Do you buy stocks, or merely rent them?" 06/02/2006 - Wealth Creation and Asset Inflation
Greg's Note: Dan Amoss from Strategic Investment returns to share his thoughts about creating wealth through the housing market. He's also going to talk about capitalism, Miami condos and the credit-driven bubble. E-mail your thoughts on all these to your travel weary managing editor here: greg@whiskeyandgunpowder.com 05/03/2006 - "A Chicken in Every Pot and a Car in Every Garage"
Greg's Note: Today you have a new Whiskey contributor. His name's Dan Amoss, and he contributes to Strategic Investment, Whiskey's flagship investment newsletter. We're punching up our "investment cred" over here at Whiskey HQ, and Dan's status as a CFA will make Mish feel a bit less lonely in these spirited pages. Below, Dan discusses the difference between investment and speculation by detailing the Great Depression and today's infatuation with twisted credit derivatives. Then, he drills down to real-world examples by analyzing of 2 stocks. | 
