Pound up…

Euro down…

Aussie pulling back…

Canadian giving way…

Yen losing ground…

October is coming to an end, and we haven’t really seen hide nor hair of any terrifying market moves or monstrous returns to the old days of dollar safety, when anything that even had a scent of risk was spurned as foolhardy investing.

But as of now, the dollar has been tanking and anything that is paying a higher interest rate has been soaring, thanks in part to the hawkish comments and actions by the Reserve Bank of Australia, but mostly due to the boneheaded actions of the United States.

Any way you put it, when a man shows up and says, “Hello! I’m from the government and I’m here to help” — RUN. As fast as you can. RUN.

We are following in the footsteps of Japan. Should this continue, we will have to replace our Stars and Strips with a new flag, ”The Land of the Setting Sun.”

No Happy Ending for the Dollar

We’re now at a 9.8% unemployment rate, and we lost a jaw-dropping 263,000 jobs in September. Now it’s true this isn’t the 700,000 we were losing not so long ago. But it still is not awe-inspiring evidence of a recovery.

The euro’s meteoric rise was on the G-7’s agenda this week. But before we start jumping up and down for joy as the powers that be begin pushing the euro back down (and the dollar up), I must confess that I smell a rat.

The folks at the European Central Bank have not been too worried about the strengthening euro up to this point. That could always change. But for now, they seem to be enjoying this appreciation. For them it acts as a nominal rate increase, which will keep inflation in check should it appear. But don’t get me wrong. Central bankers are men just like us (only often with a lot less common sense). They can get blinders on and only see things a certain way. After all, don’t all humans usually see things the way we want to see them? And this can handicap them when it comes to reading the data — the same way it can handicap us. Should they allow the euro to rise too much and too early, it will crush their budding recovery… much to their surprise and chagrin.

That being said, the dollar is in a bad way. Aside from the sheer size of its GDP, and the fact that historically it has managed to pull its fat out of the fire, I’m not sure what we can look at currently to construct any happy outcome for the dollar. That’s it, plain and simple.

The Dollar Will Be Let Down Gently

But nothing, not even the dollar, falls all at once. Hence all this jawboning about the euro (and yen, while were at it) being too expensive. None of these foreign economies can afford to let the dollar fall too much, too quickly. Thus, if they continue to badmouth the strength of their own currencies, it buoys the dollar and gives them opportunities to get out at a better price. But they can’t dump too much on the market all at once. If investors get wind of that, the big boys will have a harder time getting their target price.

So it seems to me that we should be looking for another return to dollar strength. That would play right into the hands of foreign economies that are looking to quietly unload the dollar. It is also the reason I don’t think we should look for the dollar to go into freefall — it is simply too costly for our trading partners. I believe they will do all they can to allow themselves an exit at a decent price.

No matter what may happen to the dollar’s reserve status in the decades to come, it will retain this status for a long, long time. Thus in this great tug of war between the currencies, there will always come periods when the dollar will be viewed as too cheap, and those who need it for continued trading purposes will not be able to resist the drive to buy it.

No Dollar Strength from This “Recovery”

For our last note, let me reassure you, dollar strengthening will not come as a result of the recovery we are supposedly in.

The stimulus has not performed as promised. A quick look at the figures from last November to the present will reveal it was no panacea:

Unemployment
November ’08: 6.6%
October ’09: 9.8%  (up 50%)

GDP
November ’08: $14.3 trillion
2nd quarter ’09: $14.1 trillion (down .25%)

Housing starts
November ’08: 655,000
October ’09: 590,000 (down 10%)

Food stamps participants
November ’08: 31.1 million
July ’09: 35.9 million (up 15%)

Home mortgages underwater
November ’08: 15 million
October ’09: 25 million (up 66%)

Deficit
November ’08: $450 billion
October ’09: $1.5 trillion (up 300%)

Looking for a Dollar Bounce

Let’s sum up. I am looking for a bounce in the dollar (and I have been since mid- September). I thought that perhaps the fall season might be enough to bring it on. That hasn’t happened. That’s not the same as saying it isn’t in the cards. We are now in the midst of the new equities earnings season. J.P. Morgan produced stellar figures that pumped risk appetite into the market strong and hard. Other corporations may not be able to do as well.

It seems to me that this rally is already on thin ice. At any rate, the dollar will bounce. It will likely end up being a bigger move than most anticipate and it will be fueled by fear and short covering. Then, when the big boys have had enough, the course will be reversed, fundamentals will resume their place, and the dollar will begin its drift toward the nether regions once again.

It is a treacherous pathway before us, but it should yield us some really nice profits if we position ourselves accordingly.

Due to the increased interest in currencies, the NASDAQ now offers an easy way for anyone to play up to ten currencies against each other. Click here to for the full fact sheet on the NASDAQ currency options. So you can do your positioning to take advantage of the coming strength in the dollar…and in the dollar’s ultimate decline.

Regards,
Bill Jenkins

October 22, 2009

Dollar Strength Then the Decline Resumes was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

They talking, of course, about the Australians decision to hike their central bank index rate. And instantly the howls of recovery were on the lips of all the pundits.

But the recovery at large is still not on the horizon.

We may be facing a serious battle with deflation, and that the evidence is all around us, Australia notwithstanding. And now we have seen more than just anecdotal evidence.

A few days ago, the United Kingdom, which has been struggling with a weakening currency, released inflation numbers far below expectations. Not only was inflation lower than expected; the figures were actually negative.

What does that mean? Well, when inflation numbers turn negative, that is deflation. And England wasn’t alone.

The number one economy in the Eurozone, Germany, released numbers that said the same thing. Prices are not increasing, they are decreasing… and at a surprising rate!

That’s contrary to conventional wisdom, which says that the bloated money supply should be raising prices. But as I explained last week, that money supply isn’t natural — it’s being created on a whim by the central back and being pushed into its member banks.

From there, it is being held against the mountain of derivative losses, bad loans and investments, instead of flowing into the economy at large through lending.

That lack of lending is what’s preventing inflation. It won’t show up until the money is released to the public. Until then, the money supply has not effectively changed or expanded… and we’ll continue to see deflation.

Deflation, in turn, will lead to longer periods of extended “non-growth” and lower interest rates — at least in the places where they can be lowered. Where they cannot be lowered, “stimulus ad nauseam” will remain the protocol of the day.

But, of course, a flat-broke country can’t stimulate unless it can borrow. We are not like China with $2 trillion in reserves. Staying afloat requires borrowing unparalleled in history. The problem is, now that we aren’t buying the world’s widgets, the world is far less inclined to loan us anything. After all, that’s the way the game has been played. They lend to us — we buy from them. And everybody was happy. But you just can’t borrow forever.

So if deflation is going to be the name of the game, what happens to the currency markets?

Thomas Jefferson Fears the Federal Reserve

To answer that question, first we need to determine which currencies are going to move in which direction. That will continue to unfold over time. But it will likely lead to the currencies of the West doing a slow gyrating dance. Neither currency is better than any of the others, so they will just move back and forth until one of them gets their debt and banking situation under control.

Very possibly, the first nation to get rid of its central bank will be the first to really break out.

Because as we all should be well aware by now, central banks exist for one purpose and one purpose only: to bailout their banker buddies who, in the pursuit of greater profit, have made risky loans… to bail out large industries in order to preserve the job base… and to make sure that the taxpayers foot the bill. They will masquerade it in the best of terms, but at the end of the day, we are paying for their foolish business practices.

The sooner we do away with a central bank, the richer we all will be. This is not our first experiment with a central bank in the United States, but it has been our most costly. Our forefathers vehemently opposed the idea of a central bank for just this reason.

They believed that such a cartel would rape and pillage the public and increase poverty on a massive scale, until there is nothing left to take.

“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies,” Thomas Jefferson wrote. “The issuing power of money should be taken away from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs. The modern theory of the perpetuation of debt has drenched the earth with blood and crushed its inhabitants under burdens ever accumulating.”

Amazing, isn’t it? Here’s a man who, two centuries ago, understood why central banks brought themselves into existence. The Federal Reserve in the United States has done nothing to improve our lot and has done everything it can to extort our wealth by the tax of inflation, then to export it to economies and dictators who live like massive welfare recipients off of the taxes your fathers have paid, and you continue to pay, and your children will have to pay.

And it will remain like this until the Fed is abolished again. As I mentioned, the population of the United States has closed more than one central bank. Former presidential hopefuls even lost their bids to the White House over their stand in favor of a central bank. Until such a day as we are sufficiently educated again to see them as a menace to our wealth and way of life, until we take it in hand to dismantle the Fed as it is, we will continue to suffer the expropriation of our hard-earned money to those who act as our overlords.

Problem is, I seriously doubt that will happen within our lifetimes. Look how long it’s taken us just to consider a bill that audits the Fed.

In the meantime, I recommend you take your capital to the place it’s treated best.

That specific place, however, is yet to be determined. Will it be Australia — the first ones to hike rates? Will be China – the almighty ones holding a financial nuclear option?

I can’t say for sure.

But I can say that, over the long run, it won’t be the greenback.

If you’re looking for a way out, diversifying your savings into another currency through the FOREX markets is an easy way to do it.

Regards,
Bill Jenkins

October 15, 2009

Who Needs a Central Bank? was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

The Pause That Refreshes

We saw a short reversal in the recovery trade that has benefited the risk currencies, especially Australia, New Zealand and the Eurozone. As of last Tuesday morning when I began this column, the risk push is back on: The euro and Kiwi are pushing new yearly highs with the Aussie hot on their heels. Poor Canada got dumped on due to its poor retail sales but will likely fall back in line.

Let’s look first at the euro. This really looks like a gasping market. It resembles all those that make higher highs on a relentless basis. And when you talk about relentless, the mighty euro sure fits the bill. Until Monday, the euro had not seen two down days in a row for the entire month. That’s remarkable.

But the real question is, does that movement arise from its own strength, or is it something else? I have long been a proponent of an impending euro disaster — and I’ve positioned my paid Master FX Options Trader readers accordingly.

The one thing that would forestall my forecast of disaster would be an intermediate recovery. Please notice two words in that previous sentence — “forestall” and “intermediate.” The euro disaster is not over — it has only been delayed. Like all excesses, it must eventually come to light and be dealt with. A foundation can only be undermined for so long before the structure it supports has to topple.

That’s what has been going on in the United States. And without a doubt, the euro problems are much, much bigger. Moreover, the European Central Bank’s remedies thus far have not been nearly as effective as they have been in the United States. But the second item of note — “intermediate” — is the type of recovery that will allow the Eurozone to gloss over their immediate problems.

Thus it looks like “business as usual” for European banks and businesses. During the boom-boom years, the systemic problems of the Eurozone were easily glossed over. If we can return to that sense of “normalcy” — and believe me, that’s what every central bank is working toward — then the euro and the U.S. dollar will continue to part ways. Mainly because the U.S. problems are all exposed and out there for everyone to see. The Eurozone has managed to weather the storm, keeping its central bank rates higher than the U.S. rates, so it has all the appearances of not needing the drastic measures that America has taken. Ipso facto, it must not be in as bad shape as its North American counterpart.

But the way things seem is not always the way they are. Everybody has to pay the piper, and what you sow is what you reap. There are NO exceptions. So when we sow thievery and oppression, crushing economies to benefit the friends of central bankers, there will be hell to pay. And I’m not just using a figure of speech.

So then, the euro has posted a new high. It doesn’t have the internal strength on its own to continue higher. But as “good” recovery-style news comes out, they keep the Ponzi going.

So what will be the real drive going forward? Let’s take a look.

The Dollar Carries On

First of all, the U.S. dollar is in danger of becoming the currency of choice for the new “carry trade.” We’ve discussed this before, but it’s worth mentioning again — especially for new readers.

Plainly put, the carry trade is when a trader borrows money in a currency with a low interest rate, then uses the proceeds to buy a currency with a higher interest rate. So even though he has to pay interest on the currency he borrowed, he’s making even more in interest with the currency he bought.

Since the interest rate difference is so small, the carry trade is only worthwhile if it involves a tremendous amount of cash. That’s why it’s generally done by the really big, big players. Here’s an example of how it works.

Say an institutional investor borrows a bunch of dollars at a .25% interest rate. Then he uses those dollars to buy, say, Australian dollars, which are paying a 2.75% interest rate. So, he’s losing .25% on the dollars he borrowed, but making 2.75% on the Australian dollars he bought. And he earns that in perpetuity. He doesn’t have to do anything. It just keeps earning money day after day.

For years this has been done with the yen, as it always had the lowest rate of interest. It helped to keep the yen very cheap, which is exactly what the Bank of Japan wanted. It hoped the cheap currency would expand their perpetually receding economy.

Now this same scheme is being done to the dollar. So far, it’s only been in “bite-sized” chunks — but only because no one is very sure if the world economy is out of the woods. Still, unless more bad news comes, this is a profitable trade.

Also, higher interest rates tend to attract more money going forward (as all the scared money comes back into the market) — so the higher-yielding currencies also appreciate against the lower-yielding ones. Therefore, the investor makes a double boon: the interest and the appreciation.

So the big institutions have an interest in depressing the dollar. Any gain in strength or interest rates threatens the easy money of the carry trade.

But, as noted, the institutional players aren’t the only ones who want to keep the dollar down.

Bad Politics = Bad Currency

As I mentioned, the Bank of Japan was all too happy to let the yen carry trade go on, since a weaker currency was seen as a way out of its economic mess. The U.S. government is essentially taking the same route. Without a doubt, it is complicit in driving the dollar lower.

Like in Japan, a cheaper currency helps service ever-increasing debt (I’m certain they have long since abandoned any prayer of paying it off). And the indebtedness is increasing at a faster rate than at any time in history. As long as the major economic power wants to see its currency cheaper, it will do whatever it takes to get that done.

By the time you read this missive, the Fed will be ending their two days of meetings to determine what to do about U.S. interest rates. If you haven’t already heard the answer, what do you think it will be? It is important to formulate an answer to that with all the evidence before you, because it will give you an added insight into how the central bank works. Here’s my answer. They will not be raising rates.

Now that, of course, is no new revelation. But what will they do looking ahead? When will they start earnestly looking at raising rates? The answer to that question lies in our own recovery.

While data appear to show that the economy might be coming out of recession, unemployment is still at multiyear highs and is not decreasing. Housing numbers are improving, but they will NOT be coming back to what they were. All the weight put on housing starts, new purchases, purchases of existing homes, new permits issued, etc., are all a smokescreen. And if not intentionally an “illusion,” it certainly will not make a difference to the economy. Here’s why…

Under the “old economy” (two years ago), a house was a store of value. We all implicitly knew that our savings were not “safe” in a bank, and if they were, they certainly were not growing to keep pace with inflation. So we invested in real estate. I don’t mean that everyone went out and bought rental properties or tried to flip houses. What I really mean is this:

If you ever refinanced your house and took “cash out,” you invested in real estate. If you ever used a home equity loan or a home equity line of credit — you invested in real estate. The unwritten assumption was that your house would continue to increase in value, even as you were using the equity. We became a nation of equity spenders. Treating our homes like ATM machines, we attempted to increase our wealth by means of a bubble market. Even if you didn’t think you understood the nature of a bubble market, implicitly, or even instinctively, you did.

Spending a house’s future earnings meant that we believed our money would be worth less in the future than it is now. We believed its value was decreasing. (Incidentally, we were right.) But we were on the “safe side of the bet.” Because we would spend valuable dollars now, but repay our bill with less valuable dollars later. This is why a 30-year mortgage in a centrally managed and inflationary economy is such a good deal. You lock in today’s price, but pay it off with increasingly inflated money. It is that very inflation that makes your house go up in “value.” Any reasonable consideration would conclude that a house is not as “valuable” after 30 years of living in it. It must depreciate, because it “wears out.” Anybody who has ever owned a home knows this to be true. Defer just a few years of maintenance, and it will soon overwhelm you. Before long, you begin to wonder if you own the house, or if the house owns you.

But in the end, when houses were all in debt up to their value, and many far more than their value, we stopped investing in real estate. Mainly because we couldn’t afford it any more. Either our payments were already too high, or our equity was too low. At any rate, when people stopped “investing,” the residential market began crashing. It will not return to what it was, and vainly hoping for more increases in housing numbers to do that will only bring to pass the old proverb, “He that sows to the wind will reap the whirlwind.” In other words, vain hope isn’t gonna save the farm.

Getting back to the moral of our story, the government, which will not control or reduce its spending, can only raise taxes, cut services or inflate the currency in order to get us out of this mess.

Of course, raising taxes or cutting services are the easiest ways for a politician to lose his or her job. So the third option is always exercised. If done properly (according to prevailing monetary theory), it will be painless, and the effects of inflation will be partially offset by the ever-popular cost of living increase. That way everyone shares in the illusion that they are “keeping up with” inflation. But that’s all it is… an illusion.

So we’re up to two entities with a vested interest in keeping the dollar down — the institutional investors who want the carry trade to continue, and the U.S. government, which needs a weak dollar to plaster over its massive debt.

And the dollar has yet another enemy…

Neither a Borrower Nor a Lender Be

It’s easy to overlook, but when you buy bonds, you’re buying debt. You are loaning the issuer your money and getting their interest rate as your profit. Corporate bonds represent the debt of individual companies. When you buy Treasury bills and the like, you’re buying the debt of the U.S. government.

No nation in the world sells more debt every single month than the United States. Because of our existing budget (that’s using the term very loosely), we are forced to borrow money every 30 days. To pay Social Security, welfare, medical payments, elected officials and bureaucrats, the military, foreign aid, student loans — anything and everything that gets money with a federal stamp on the check.

And we have to borrow it. Somebody has to give us their money with the expectation that they are going to get it back, plus interest (uninflated).

Now, imagine your neighbor asked you to loan him some money, promising to pay it back with interest. A week later, all that money has been spent… so your neighbor asks for another loan. And another. Then another. How much longer would you keep lending him money? Even if he continues to pay the interest he owes you, you still have to wonder how long before he needs to borrow money just to pay the interest he owes you for borrowing the money.

That’s why everyone I know is casting a wary eye on America’s “neighbors” — the countries holding much of the U.S. debt. With our massive spending plans and dim economic outlook, other nations must be worried about our ability to repay our debt. What will we do when the Chinese stop buying? What will happen when the European Central Bank stops buying? What will we do when Japan stops buying? Will the government stop spending even then?

One way or another, the you-know-what is going to hit the fan. Oddly enough, however, foreign investment is higher this year (43.1%) versus last year (only 27.1%). That’s a year-over-year increase of 60%!

So instead of being worried, the U.S. government feels invincible. Foreign countries will always be happy to buy our debt, it thinks, so there’s no reason to adjust our destructive spending plans. It’s like giving more liquor to an alcoholic to sooth his tremors — a short-term fix that doesn’t do anything to solve the problem. Make him feel good enough, and soon he won’t feel anything ever again.

If I were you, I’d position my short-term and long-term currency savings accordingly.

Regards,
Bill Jenkins

September 30, 2009

The Euro, the Dollar and the Future of the Forex was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

It’s also the time of year when the Jenkins family winds up plans for an October vacation. This year my family and I are planning a big trip to Orlando. Can’t wait to go. Hoping the pinched nerve that I have suffered with most of the summer will be under control by then.

But as entrancing as all of that news may be, I have something bigger on my mind today.

Setting the Stage: The Big Picture

As just about everyone knows, the stock market crashed in a big way in 1929. Analyst Nick Guarino reminds me that it rallied 15 times before it hit bottom fours years later, having lost 90% of its value.

And the truth is, when adjusted for inflation, the market didn’t break even again until 1960. (If you’re a “buy-and-hold” investor, you MUST account for inflation. It is the single biggest “invisible” tax in our wonderful Fed managed economy.)

But before people could get too happy with making money again, along came President Johnson and the “Great Society.” I don’t know who it was so great for — the market began crashing again in ’66. Once again, adjusted for inflation, it didn’t get back to breakeven for another 30 years.

So, 30 years from the Great Depression to the Great Society. Then 30 years from the Great Society to the Great Depression II. Each of the peaks resulted in 10-15 years of declines. Of course, they didn’t fall straight down. That’s the “trick” of the whole deal.

Each rally draws in a few more people, a little more money, until there are no suckers left. Then when the bottom hits, it has takes 15-20 years to “recover.”

It will take a very long time to recover from what we’ve been hit with: Exxon/Mobil lost two-thirds of its profits… that’s 66%! The “World’s Company,” GE, saw a 47% collapse in profits. Toyota, the recession-impervious carmaker, posted its largest yearly loss EVER and is looking at losses this year, too. Insurers have been hit. Computer giants have taken a whacking. Even Disney is down over 25% in the third quarter.

These are not “bumps in the road.” They are “driving off a cliff.” By some estimates, inflation-adjusted earnings are down 90% in the last 20 months.

We are now in just the second year of this disaster. We are witnessing an almost perfect copy of the first Great Depression. And there are more nasty little secrets in the economy, waiting like ticking time bombs to explode. We will see more businesses in trouble, more banks failing, more foreclosures and more commercial real estate losses.

At the end of June alone, there were over 5,300 commercial properties in the United States in default. That’s more than double the number from the end of 2008 — and there are still six months to count. Still think American companies are recovering? What will a 300% rise in commercial defaults do for jobs? Profits? Banks?

So don’t let the recovery pundits fool you, even though they’re out in force.

Setting the Stage: Zooming in Our Focus

No doubt you’ve heard the optimists: “The Recession is over.” “The Recovery has begun.” “Better get in on the ground floor now if you hope to recover all that retirement money you lost last year.”

Just look at the evidence, they say:

* Markets up 50%. In the greatest bull run since the Great Depression, stock indices are forging higher. The numbers are swelling. Ride the wave!

* Housing numbers are turning north. Over the past six months, there have been some the fall in some housing numbers are slowing, and some have turned up. Building permits. Existing home sales. New home sales. New housing starts. Pending home sales. Hmmm… nice!

* Manufacturing looks like it’s exploding. Yesterday the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index posted a stronger-than-expected rise at 52.9. Well above expectations, and well into the 50+ territory that signals expansion. Looking better and stronger than it has in 2 years. It would be a mistake to bet against it!

But you probably know what I’m going to say right now: Don’t believe a word of it!

The September Syndrome

No market goes up forever. Isn’t that one of the first lessons we learn when chasing a bull market?

This one is no different. Could it go higher? Sure. But just how far can you stretch a rubber band? Eventually, it is going to snap back.

And, as it happens, we’re heading right into “snapback” season.

Historically, the month of September is the worst month for stocks. Hands down. Indices fall more in this month on average than in any other month of the year.

In fact, the S&P has declined in 11 of the past 20 Septembers. You may be inclined to say, “That’s not so impressive.” But an average decline of 10 points is something worth noting. Additionally, 40% of those falls consisted of declines that were 75-125 points. That’s huge. No other month has such an anomaly. And it seems to me that this September may be ripe for the picking.

In fact, the first day of September was a real whopper. And Monday (although technically an August day) was not so august for U.S. equities. Thus, as the calendar turns over, we have two days in the down column. Today is not looking so good, either.

But as bad as September is, October has the reputation for being a real bloodbath. It certainly possesses a number of the largest down and crash days. But in order for a crash of monumental proportions to take place, there has to be some lofty level from which to fall.

I get physically sick when people tell me how they are moving (what’s left of their money) back into equities. I try to reason with them; I try to warn them. It breaks my heart to see pensioners barely getting by. You remember all the drama from recent years, how we were told that the elderly were forced to choose between food and medicine? Do you remember the seniors who were reportedly sharing their cat’s food so they could buy their prescriptions?

And that was during the go-go boom years. I cringe when I think of what lies ahead for them.

Will it start this fall? Has the band stretched far enough? Has Wall Street suckered in all the money that will venture out into the street? That’s all they’re after. Draw everyone out of the woods. Get all those who believe that it’s time to buy and hold into the game again. A 50% rally? Child’s play! This time the Dow is headed for 18,000!

Better tread carefully. This is without question the area of thinnest ice. One misstep by the government, a foolish line slip or a negative surprise, and the entire “recovery” falls like a house of cards.

Keep your money, and your exits, close… and don’t be afraid to take profit.

Regards,
Bill Jenkins

September 3, 2009

Suckers Rallies and the September Syndrome was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

This has been quite a month so far, with healthcare taking center stage in the national debate. There have been rallies, shouting, fights and town hall meetings with unbelievable attendance. And, a line that I’ll bet the president wishes he could take back.

Addressing that he wants us to believe that private insurance will still be available and that you will still have options, President Obama commented, “If you think about it, UPS and FedEx are doing just fine, right? No, they are. It’s the Post Office that’s always having problems.”

Is that really what he intended to say? Does that really offer any rational support for setting up a government insurance program? He admits that the government-run postal service is failing, while its private competitors are thriving. Now, I know that public speakers are famous for their gaffs, but that one directly contradicts what he’s trying to say!

Support for the plan appears to be at an all-time low — according to a recent poll by a Rasmussen, down to just 42%.

But let’s get to the news and some longer-term commentary for the day. According to a Wall Street Journal poll, 98% approve of Ben Bernanke being re-appointed for four more years at the helm of the Federal Reserve. Citing the importance of continuity, he was given overwhelming support for bringing us through the recent difficult times.

Really?

SAME PLAY, DIFFERENT ACTS

One book I recommend reading is The Creature From Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin. It is an excellent treatment of the origin and goals of the Federal Reserve. I am surprised at the number of people who have never even heard of this book. It ought to be required reading in all civics classes — if they even teach that stuff anymore. Actually, I was shocked when a friend who I highly respect in our industry recently commented to me that he was just reading this for the first time.

So if you’ve never read it, get a copy. It’s available in plenty of places online. The book is a large one, and intimidating to those who are only occasional readers. But it is well worth the effort, and a real eye-opener as to why things have played out the way they have over the last year and a half.

Tracing the founding of the central bank in the United States, Griffin clearly demonstrates how and why it was formed, and how it is functioning EXACTLY as planned. The Federal Reserve is not America’s first attempt at a central bank, but all others were eventually shut down because they were recognized for what they really are — an attempt to create a cartel of bankers who, with Congressional support (even though they are not a federal agency), constantly overextend themselves in the pursuit of higher and higher profits. And when the game is up, it uses its Congressional “connection” to foist the losses onto the American taxpayer.

It always occurs with the same themes: “Too big to fail”… or “The first domino to fall in a nationwide/worldwide catastrophe.”

Each successive failure became more massive than the previous one, and a strategy emerged — start discussing amounts of money so big that the average citizen was simply mind-boggled by the size of them. As generations of public dis-education came home to roost, people increasingly believed that economics was the realm of governments rather than markets. And with that fallacy came the ingrained idea that money comes from the government, so it is the only entity able to create the resources to “correct” gargantuan fiscal shortfalls.

Of course what “everyman” missed was that the government’s creation of money out of nothing simply fleeced the citizenry in the form of the hidden tax of inflation.

Let’s take a quick and closer look at this sordid history.

I catalogued for you recently one of the failures of the central bank. It was purportedly established to stop market crashes and end recessions. But we have seen recessions in ’53, ’57, ’69, ’75 and ’81, the crashes of ’21 and ’29, the Great Depression I, Black Monday in 1987 and the current lollapalooza of 2008-?

But one of the Fed’s other foundational reasons for existence was to reduce competition from outside banks, as previously mentioned. It also planned to foster an attitude of easy lending, perpetual indebtedness and constant loan rollovers and interest charges. Then when the jig is finally up, and the indebted families, corporations or nations can no longer even afford the interest payments, the debt burden will be passed to the unsuspecting taxpayer by way of inflation.

Since the inception of the Fed, the game has been managed very well. Smaller banks were allowed to fail, just as they are now. This gives the appearance of “letting the market work.”

Let’s look at some of the worst of the big bailouts, just so you can see get a grasp of what has happened, what will happen and how that affects your money.

SAVING BAD BUSINESSES BY STEALING YOUR MONEY 

Penn Central was the nations’ leading railroad prior to 1970. And it was a pretty egregious example of how far bankers were willing to go to bilk money out of a cash cow.

Penn starting getting deeply into debt. Its loans were rolled over, and more money was forwarded to keep operations going, which included servicing interest on their current debt. But as things got worse, the huge banks who were in on the play, which included Continental Illinois, Chase Manhattan, Chemical Bank, Manufacturer’s Hanover and First National City, agreed to continue the loans only if the banks’ officers were put on the railroad’s operating board.

So essentially, the bankers lent themselves money and were in cahoots with the whole game. Also, they were privy to information about the railroad and its stock far ahead of the public. They used this information for their own private profit as the railroad bit the dust. Public records showed that the top executives saved themselves more than $1 million dollars by the sale of stock ahead of the public. A million saved is a million earned.

After all the banks who were called in to support the railroad with cash funds were given complete assurance that the Fed would guarantee the loans, the bailout was a done deal. Immediately all the unionized employees of the failing enterprise were given 13.5% raises. In the end, the Fed authorized loan guarantees of $125 million.

This was never really intended to solve the problem, and a year later the railroad was nationalized and its passenger service became Amtrak. It is a government-run enterprise to this day and continues to operate at a massive loss… only staying open with further governmental subsidies.

The freight side of Penn Central became Conrail, with the government owning 85% of its stock. Fortunately it was sold in a public offering in 1987, staged an impressive comeback and operates at a profit.

At the same time, defense giant Lockheed was also on the edge of bankruptcy. It was $400 million in debt, and Bank of America, along with several other smaller banks, were anxious to keep the milk flowing. Eventually, they marshaled an army of interested parties and went to Washington. They claimed that tens of thousands of jobs would be lost, along with suppliers and subcontractors who would be forced into bankruptcy if Lockheed were allowed to fail. So the government gave them an additional $250 billion in guarantees. That increased their total indebtedness 60%.

Of course, the government had a not-so-secret desire to see Lockheed pay off these debts, and the only way it could do that would be to earn more money. So the company became the chief winner of no-bid contracts and recipients of other governmental work. In the meantime, other defense contractors suffered, since they were essentially pushed out of the whole process in the rush to save Lockheed.

In the mid-’70s, New York City was pursuing the same path. Waste and overspending abounded in this gigantic welfare experiment. By 1975, NYC had sold so many bonds, the market was flooded with them, and there were no more lenders. Well, almost no more. Chase Manhattan and Citicorp were the banks that were benefiting the most from interest paid on these debt, but when the day finally came that interest payments were halted, both bankers and city leaders put together a caravan to Washington, D.C.

Same game plan: Threats of halting essential services… no firemen… no police… no garbage pickup. Rioting and anarchy in the streets. Spreading disease. In New York City? This could have international repercussions.

Out came the federal checkbook and draft was made for $2.3 billion, double what the city already owed. Even though there were a number of conditions placed upon the loan to balance the NYC budget and get a surplus to pay off these debts, none of them were ever honored. The city remains in debt to this day.

Then there was Chrysler for $1.5 billion.

Unity Bank, which eventually cost taxpayers just under $4.5 million.

Commonwealth Bank of Detroit, which enjoyed a $1.5 billion fed bailout — then was eventually sold to First Arabian Corporation, a firm funded by Saudi princes.

First Pennsylvania Bank was carrying $328 million in questionable loans, $16 million more than the entire stock float of the company. They received a $325 million loan from the FDIC.

Continental Illinois was the nations’ seventh-largest bank. It had assets of $42 billion, thousands of employees around the globe and an annual income of $254 million by 1981. Unfortunately, its stellar growth was based on shaky loans to risky businesses and foreign governments who could not obtain financing anywhere else.

Its stock was doing wonderfully, and it was named one of the five best-managed banks in the country. But as they began to reap the risk they had sown, the worlds’ first electronic bank run began. Customers were blissfully unaware, but the biggest depositors began withdrawing their funds, and the business was rumored to be in trouble. Creditors raised their interest rates to the banks and began withdrawing funds. In just four days, Continental’s withdrawals were so heavy, they were forced to go to the Fed for a $3.6 billion loan to cover them. Several banks extended a 30-day line of credit, but it was of no use. Within a week, the bank’s outflow ballooned to over $6 billion.

In the end, Continental’s liabilities (including those off-book) totaled $69 billion. Only about $3 billion of that was FDIC insured. The final bailout was more complicated than I can go into here. But just know that the bank was bailed out, and the taxpayers were stuck with the bill.

Then comes the subprime fiasco of 2008. Notice the fact beyond debate, that the Fed did not come to the rescue of the subprime borrowers. Nope — it rescued the banks. It was for this purpose that it was designed, and it continues in its mission today.

All in the name of preventing catastrophe, protecting the public and providing “liquidity” to the markets.

The multibillion-dollar bailout engineered last year is only chump change to what it will eventually cost the taxpayer. Protect the banks — fleece the public.

So what does all this have to do with us and options? Allow me to bring it home…

THE FED DOESN’T EXIST TO HELP YOU

The key point here is that central banks do not exist for the good of economies. They do not exist for the good of citizens. Their sole purpose is to keep the game going, and to profit from it as long as possible. After that, they clear out, leaving the taxpayers to pay off their debts. Their protection and enhancement of economies and citizens is just a means to end. As long as it helps the profits roll in, helping others is fine. But in the end, they will foist responsibility to others.

So we have to expect central banks to do whatever will profit the most and keep the game going. But, of course, in the end, you reap what you sow. It’s true for all men, including central bankers.

The fact that 98% believe that Ben Bernanke should be re-appointed to his post is evidence of the widespread misunderstanding of what he and his predecessors have done.

Regards,
Bill Jenkins

August 17, 2009

The Fed is Stealing Your Money was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

Today I have something new for you that I heard over the weekend. It may not be news to everyone, but its implications could be staggering.

As a father of seven whose children are all grown, I look to get frequent doses of youth from my grandchildren. They are a perpetual delight! This week’s insight comes to us courtesy of my grandson, Jack.

It started when my son-in-law, John (Jack’s Dad), celebrated a birthday recently. One of his gifts was a greatly needed new wallet.

In the spirit of kind giving, John passed his old wallet down to his son Jack.

“Here, Jack,” he said. “You can be like daddy and use this to put your allowance in and keep it safe.” He slipped his $1 allowance into the billfold. (I’ll let you guess Jack’s age based on the size of his allowance!)

Jack smiled warmly as he thanked his dad for his new present. He then proceeded to throw the dollar bill on the floor (where he left it in worthless shame) and began stuffing his new wallet with his sizeable Pokemon card collection. “This will be just right for holding all my cards!” he exclaimed.

There you have it. In the eyes of the next generation, the Almighty USD shall be replaced with the Japanese Pokemon currency. (And I’ll bet you thought it was going to be something Chinese!)

OK, maybe not Pokemon cards… but the story does represent what is happening to the dollar in a childlike way.  Jack may not know yet the “value of a dollar” (a phrase likely to perish as meaningless in years to come), but he does realize that there are things of value in his community… his community being the other little boys in his school class.

The fact of the matter is this: the USD is the world’s reserve currency by default. It is simply so by the function which it currently serves. It was not made the “World’s Reserve Currency” by some multinational edict out of the G-8, G-20, UN or IMF.

Nor do they have the ability to do so in the future. They may make such statements, and they may indeed produce a currency, but that does not guarantee its place as the premier money of the world.

Such statements are like a prisoner who is locked away for life saying, “I think I will choose to stay in jail.” He’s made a decision. He’s made his decision known. He acts on his decision. But it doesn’t change anything.

In the end, a currency only works if it is a real store of value.

Let’s say Jack takes his new wallet full of Pokemon treasure into school. But as a good capitalist, he also takes his allowance. Assuming the boys in his class also share the same mentality, how many of his friends’ cards can he buy for a buck? Zero.

In their “community,” cards are more valuable than cash. He is only going to get a coveted card from a friend, if he can offer him something that the friend perceives is of greater value. Perhaps a single card, or a whole slew of them together.

Such is the essence of the barter system, or any new currency system. If it is not a store of value, then you might as well try buying something with dirt!

At any rate, I hope I don’t live long enough to see the day that Pokemon becomes the new currency. If it does, Jack may have to take over the weekly wrap-up to explain the difference between a Pikachu and a Jigglypuff (who comes up with these names?).

Regards,
Bill Jenkins

July 28, 2009

Pokemon Currency Trumps Dollar was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

But some things are for sure and provide “reasonable markers” to see what a currency is doing. One of my “favorites,” although I hate to call it that, is the “civil unrest factor.”

Across the Eurozone riots and outbreaks of violence have been touched off by escalating economic problems and disagreements between members and neighbors. People involved in civil unrest are a multifold problem. First, they have too much time on their hands because they are not working. Jobless citizens, especially in a heavily socialist culture, are a continual drag on the system. Second, it costs money to keep repressing social upheaval — presenting another drag on the system. Additionally, the passions and fears of men being what they are, such activities tend to draw in more normally productive folks as the snowball gains speed and volume.

Here in the United States, we are not facing such difficulties (yet). This means a more reasonable system of work and distribution of goods and labor. All in all, this is good for a culture, the body politic and the economy. As a result, it also breeds greater confidence in the currency. And when all is said and done, investment money will go where there is a reasonable likelihood of return, even if the return may be lower.

Specifically, there are several exotic currencies that have offered high rates of return for speculative investors and traders, like the Brazilian real and the Indian rupee, just to name two. But it is difficult to place large sums of money there simply for the sake of the wild swings in value. A high interest rate is no good if the principle of the investment is destroyed by currency depreciation.

This is what has been good up to this point in the recession/depression for the U.S. dollar. And if this continues to unfold over the next year or two in similar fashion, this would still produce U.S. dollar strength compared to the euro simply by the “fear factor.”

Additionally, as I have tried to show, the situation in Europe is actually more severe than in the United States. I believe in the end that will make them copy, at least percentage wise, the same devaluing practices that have happened here. Should that occur, it would once again be advantage-USD.

If, in addition to those previous considerations, one or more of the countries leaves the Eurozone, I think the fear and disturbance that would produce again favors the U.S. dollar.

Longer term, I have to wonder if the euro has what it takes to survive this crisis. I have no doubt that the United States will emerge out the other side with all 50 states still members of the Union. I don’t know that such can be said for the European Union.

At the end of the Mel Gibson movie, The Patriot, there is a shot of Lord Cornwallis overlooking the field of battle as the colonists finish the rout of the British at Yorktown. He says, “How could it have come to this? Everything will change. Everything HAS changed.”

When I look at the dollar, I feel the same way. What we have done may be past the point of no return, the point of repair or recovery. The next generation may well find that the U.S. dollar has gone the way of all fiat currencies before her. What will replace it? I can’t say. But in the present environment, more shocks to the system will ultimately favor the dollar… at least for the time being, because it is supported by stability. And in unstable times — stability draws the highest premium.

Now let’s end with a look at my favorite currency, the Australian dollar.

Aussie Firm Despite Chinese Unrest

The Aussie dollar chart looks remarkably like the euro — going back to the beginning of June. All things considered, that’s rather remarkable given the relative strength of the Aussie economy compared to the Eurozone. Nevertheless, fundamentals will eventually rule the day, and though we may have to wait it out a bit, we look for the Aussie to rebound in the future.

One of the difficult parts of the equation at this point is the widely reported and detrimental riots in China’s western Urumqi (pronuonced U-rum-CHEE) province. Ethnic fighting between Muslims and Chinese citizens has threatened to overpower the police force.

As you know, Australia’s success going forward is inextricably tied to China. So worries about riots in one part of the country can certainly be detrimental in other parts as well. Even though the violence in other provinces may not be ethnically related, once a group of people feel they have been wronged and have the sheer numbers to overpower a military or police crackdown, all heck can break loose.

Remember, there is significant fear of unrest all over China as the depression sets in. The people were just getting their first dose of “la dolce vida,” only to have it stripped away. And gone are the days when they trusted their government to provide for them. Now it is beginning to look more like the enemy than a loving “big brother.”

For now, though, the Aussie dollar hasn’t been impacted by the fray. It has been well supported at the 78.25 level. A strong close below 78 on the daily chart would invalidate that forecast, and likely lead to more downside. We’ll just keep our eyes open.

Regards,
Bill Jenkins

July 20, 2009

Dollar Bad, Euro Worse was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

From it we draw the historic words, “That these United Colonies are, and of right ought to be free and independent States…” The resolution was tabled for the day and taken up on June 8.  But because some of the colonies, including Maryland, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Delaware, had not authorized their delegates to vote for independence (imagine that: politicians who are faithful to their constituents) the congress recessed for three weeks for the men to return home to find their colonies’ will.

Before recessing however, the congress appointed the famous Committee of Five, John Adams (MA), Benjamin Franklin (PA), Thomas Jefferson (VA), Robert Livingston (NY), and Roger Sherman (CT), to produce a document that laid out the case for independence.  The committee tasked Jefferson with the writing of the document, and the bulk of the work was his.  After his initial draft, he presented it to the committee, who made only minor revisions.  Then it was off to the Congress, where the debate really commenced.

The Congress re-convened on June 28, 1776.

It had been a hot spell in Philadelphia.  Jefferson records that on his way to what is now known as Independence Hall, he stopped to look at a thermometer.  Even in the early morning, it was already 80 degrees and rising.  Inside the hall, which was all closed up to avoid the heated debate being heard in the streets outside, some have estimated the temperatures at 100 degrees.  In the humid, bug infested convention, (there was a livery stable next door), the temperature was not the only thing rising.

Jefferson’s own design was to create a document that by its plainness and simplicity would be instructive and convincing, with arguments so plain and straightforward that none could contest them as they set forth the case for independence.  Hoping to create a document that would convince those who read it, not the least of which were many fence-sitting colonists, he listed a long section of the crimes of the King against the colonies, many of which were eventually omitted.  He also had written a substantial portion on the illegitimacy of the slave trade in MEN (capitalization was Jefferson’s).  That too was eventually stricken from the finished edit.

There were those who refused to vote.  There was even an abstention from New York in the final tally.  The young nation was being stressed at every seam in that hot, humid hall.

But on July 2, 1776, the cornerstone of the new nation had been formed.

A day later, July 3, future president John Adams wrote to his wife Abigail the following words.

“The second day of July, 1776, will be the most memorable epoch in the history of America.  I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated by succeeding generations as the great anniversary festival.  It ought to be commemorated as the day of deliverance, by solemn acts of devotion to God Almighty.  It ought to be solemnized with pomp, and parade, with shows, games, sports, guns, bells, bonfires, and illumination, from one end of this continent to the other, from this time forward forever more.”

His spirit was right, even if his timing was off by a couple days.

What was once memorized by grade school children as a world-shaping piece of literature is now known by very few modern students.

However, it’s final lines bear repeating…

“And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of the Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.”

Of the 56 men who signed the Declaration, some names are still common among us:  Franklin, Jefferson and Hancock.  But the remaining 53 have been largely forgotten.  What kind of men were they?  What did they stand to gain from this Revolution?

They ranged in age from 23 (Edward Rutledge of South Carolina) to age 80 (Ben Franklin of Pennsylvania).  24 of them were lawyers or judges, 11 of them were merchants of various kinds, nine were farmers, and the remaining members were ministers, doctors, and statesmen.

With just a handful of exceptions, these were all men of substantial education, property and public standing.  As compared with the rest of the populace of the 1700’s, they had blessings, eases, and pleasures in life enjoyed by very few.  All of them had more to lose, than they had to gain.

John Hancock, who already had a bounty of 500 pounds on his head, was one of the wealthiest of the signers.  From a family of considerable wealth, he inherited his mercantile fortune from his Uncle, Thomas Hancock.  He was educated at Harvard, and had all that life could give him at the time.  Yet he signed his signature with such size and flourish, that “it might be read without spectacles.”

He was not alone.  The fever of liberty was running at a high pitch.  Yet each of them knew the risks.  Treason was punished by hanging.  And the consequences did not end with themselves, but extended to their families as well.  And there was already a massive English fleet docked in the harbor at New York.

And Hancock’s actions did not go unnoticed by the British.  Nor did the those of the other suspected signers.  All of them became ferociously hunted.  Delegates from New York, William Floyd, Philips Livingston, Louis Morris, and Francis Lewis, each had their homes destroyed.  Mrs. Lewis was captured and brutalized.  Though later exchanged for two British prisoners, she never recovered.  The Floyds were able to flee from New York into Connecticut, where they lived as refugees for the next seven years.  Upon their return, they found nothing left of their estate.  Livingston, whose large possessions were confiscated, died two years later still working in Congress.  Morris was deprived of his family for the next seven years.

Delegate John Hart of New Jersey, attempted to come home to see his dying wife, but was turned back by soldiers.  As she lay dying, soldiers destroyed his livestock and burned his farm.  He was hunted from pillar to post.  When the manhunt finally relented, he returned to find his wife dead and buried.  His 13 children had been taken away.  He died three years later absolutely broken, never seeing his family again.

Judge Richard Stockton rushed home from Philadelphia to evacuate his wife and children.  Betrayed by a sympathizer to the Crown, he was torn from his bed where they were hiding in the middle of the night and subjected to a brutal beating.  He was jailed, starved, and finally released after becoming an invalid.  He did not see the end of the war or its victory, and his family was required to live off of the charitable help of friends and strangers.

The list goes on and on.  One heartbreaking, gutwrenching story after another.  Each of sacred honor, fortunes sacrificed and lives lost or forever altered.  Yet not one recanted.  Not one relented.  Not one failed to deliver on his pledge to the others.

And most remarkably, there was one man…a man who had the chance to see his family spared.  A man who could have saved his two sons if only he had rejected the colonial revolution and supported the King.  He was Abraham Clark of New Jersey.  Clark had two sons who fought for the new nation.  They were eventually captured and taken to the notorious British prison ship Jersey, where more than 11,000 American soldiers died.  The two suffered most severely for the “crimes” of their father, brutally beaten and starved.

Clark was offered his two son’s lives if he would just come out in support of the King.  To those of us who live so soft and comfortably 200 hundred years in their wake, it must seem astounding that with a broken heart, he said, “No”.

Life.  Fortune.  Sacred Honor.

Regards,
Bill Jenkins

July 14, 2009

The High Cost of Independence was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

In the simple press release that followed, we learned the Fed’s intentions remain the same. Its quantitative easing (QE) plans—that is the Fed’s buying of Treasuries to goose the economy—have not been expanded, nor have they been fully implemented. But if the economy forces their hand, they will!

After the Fed announcement, the dollar immediately sold off against the euro and the pound.

The end of June brought the third revision of the U.S. gross domestic product reading. It was revised to a slightly better figure than expected. In accordance with the trading patterns of late, strength returned to the dollar as its counterparts sold off strongly.

Then there was the massive Treasury auction, with a record number of Treasuries up for bid. Despite fears of no one showing up, the auction went off quite well. Bidding was strong and yields dropped from their recent highs. Of course, falling yields are bad for the dollar, so even though demand for U.S. investments held up, the dollar’s value fell.

That put the focus back on the euro and the pound, which gave the dollar a nice beating. But then on Tuesday the U.K.GDP numbers came out worse than expected. – and once again the dollar was the shining star.

Dizzy yet?

The currencies just keep vacillating from strength to weakness. The problem is, every time they show more strength, they quickly back off. It is hatefully referred to as a churning market. Lots of movement, but no real direction.

Lots to consider: GDP from Canada; Case-Shiller Home Price Index, consumer confidence, the ADP Payroll numbers, continuing jobless claims and non-farm payroll here in the United States; and rate announcements from the United Kingdom and the European Central Bank.

But the numbers you should keep a close eye on this week are the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ continuing jobless claims and the early holiday release of the non-farm payroll report (which is usually done on the first Friday of the month).

Crooked Math

Now, I’m not asking you to look at the numbers as a setup for a potential trade. It’s just that the numbers will highlight something I’ve been saying all along.

Here’s how it goes: The monthly report was expected to show a negative 350,000. That means we lost 350,000 jobs last month. However, the weekly figure will come in at a negative 600,000 (or so).

Funny, that. If have new jobless claims running at about 600K per WEEK, how can we only lose 350K jobs per MONTH?

Sometimes readers will complain about my politicizing the weekly wrap-ups in my newsletter. But doggone it, stuff like this really sticks in my craw. I have little confidence in the present administration, and I had little confidence in the last administration. And that’s just the start of it. I believe the mess we are in is the product of the last 100 years of administrations.

For far too long, our leaders have paraded themselves around in the most expensive of accommodations, spent our money like it is as plentiful as dirt, presumed to make intelligent decisions, and foisted them on the public as such when, in truth, they are no brighter than the emperor in his “new clothes.”

That bothers me. Immensely.

So when I complain about government intervention, I’m not specifically talking about the current occupiers of the White House or Capitol. (It just so happens the current administration has been big on intervention.)

For example, I’ve been asked what I meant by “the repressive taxation being currently inflicted on the citizenry.” “Where are the new taxes?” Essentially, I was being asked to point to a specific spending bill with accompanying taxes.

But that’s not exactly what I meant. My point was — and continues to be — this: whenever the “government” enacts a new law, it enacts a tax by default.

We have a current view of law that is “positivistic.” In other words, rather than making laws that restrict, we make laws that propose. There’s a huge difference. A negativistic view of the law is basically what we find in the Ten Commandments: Thou shalt NOT kill. Thou shalt NOT steal. Thou shalt NOT committ adultery. Each of them is negative or restrictive in nature.

Modern law, being positivistic, actually demands new behaviors. Thou shalt wear a helmet when riding a bicycle… Thou shalt wear a safety belt when riding in a car… Thou shalt provide insurance for former employees. Thou shalt produce cars with better gas mileage and friendlier emissions. Thou shalt purchase carbon credits for excessive pollution.

What’s all this got to do with taxes? Well, it costs money to enforce and police the new standards of behavior. They must be enforced and policed upon the entire population. Whereas the old laws were only enforced upon the minority who were murderers or thieves. In any “civilized” society, they are a minority, and the cost to enforce the law upon them, if it is done right, is miniscule.

But when you must police and enforce behavior across an entire population, the costs increase exponentially. That’s why with every new bill that is pushed out by Congress, taxes must go up. Unless we believe the Polyannic line that they will cut costs over here to pay for new “programs” over there!

Finally, without exception, I believe any taxation above 9.9% in toto is repressive and draconian. Only God is great enough to require 10%. [Any government that requires more has a lot of nerve—ed.]

Now, I say all that for this reason: These government statistics do not add up. When they don’t, we know they must be manipulated. If a government will manipulate its currency (which is downright theft), manipulating some monthly numbers will not cost them any sleep at night. And this month, at least in the weekly and monthly job figures, it will be out there for everyone to see who will look at it.

How does this play into your investment strategy? Well, if you were purely a technical trader, you’d say it doesn’t factor in at all. Technical traders only watch the charts and price action. Their mantra is, “Price action tells the whole story of the market.”

Now, I believe charts and price action have their place, but I would argue that it’s been stunted by the recent market. What should be good news for the dollar has often turned out to be bad news, and vice versa. Thus, if a trader is watching price action only, he would just be able to react to the markets reaction to the news, rather than trading what he thinks the market ought to do. So that’s why I think this kind of top-down, fundamental analysis should have a role in looking for investment opportunities.

And those fundamentals include studying the policies — and contradictions — spewing from the government.

Regards,
Bill Jenkins

July 9, 2009

DC and the Fed manipulating Interest Rates and Your Money was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

We have commented on their plans and purposes on numerous occasions. Now that the meeting has come and gone, let’s take a serious and sober look at what these countries are about, and why they are doing what they’re doing. Assuming that they are even doing anything at all…

First let’s look at the growth of these four dynamic economies. In the GDP growth department, last year India came in at 6.7%, Russia at 8.1%, Brazil at 5.08% and China a staggering 9%. Compare that to the United States’ -6.3%, and you start to get an idea about why they consider themselves superior to America and her economy.

No matter how much you may think those numbers are manipulated, the bottom line is that they are all ahead of the West by light years. They are in regions that were once shackled by the constraints of socialism and outright communism, and are just now breaking free into the light. (Meanwhile the United States is steadily advancing its war on capitalism by increasing debilitating taxation and regulation by the day!)

To put this even more into perspective, the United States has a GDP of about $14 trillion annually. Comparatively, Brazil is at $1.9 trillion, Russia at $2 trillion, India at $1.2 trillion, and China at $4.3 trillion. That means that the combined output of these four nations barely equals two-thirds of the United States.

The GDP per capita, where it is estimated what each person produces each year, also shows some marked disparity.

For the United States, GDP per capita is just under $47,000. Brazil is $8,200, Russia is $14,600, India is $1,000 and China is $3,200. Once again, in terms of output, the United States is far and away the leader, nearly doubling the output of the other four nations combined.

Additionally, the percentage of people in these countries that are below poverty level is shocking. The World Bank estimates that 42% of India’s population is below the poverty level; In China, 10%; Russia, 16%; Brazil, 22%. As that sinks in, also keep in mind that the World Bank defines poverty on an international scale as living on less than $1.08 per day

And not only are these people poor, there is no infrastructure in place to facilitate the increase of wealth among a large portion of their citizens.

Please note, I am not talking about wealth redistribution by government mandate. That will ALWAYS make the poor even poorer. As a matter of fact, it will make the rich poorer, also.

But as a rising tide does lift all boats, severe divergences in wealth from various parts of the population is indicative of markets that are not functioning “normally.” We see this in the United States as well, as government regulation interferes with properly functioning markets and facilitates the destruction of the middle class, leaving only the rich and the poor — not to mention a widening chasm between the two.

How do these relatively “poorer” countries get to call the shots? Why are they influencing policy discussions around the globe? Why do markets tremble when they speak? What is going on here?

You may remember the axiom of Baron Acton, “Power tends to corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Let us be careful here. Absolute power does not corrupt absolutely. God, of course, is exempt, however, in the world of men, it is indeed seemingly axiomatic that the more powerful a man becomes, the greater the temptation to corruption.

No place is this more true than in politics (except maybe religion!). And frankly, it doesn’t matter whence a man hails, what color his skin may be or even what language he speaks, the intoxicating effects of power are universal.

The four BRIC nations have been drinking deeply from this well. They want more power. They want more influence. They want more wealth. In short, they want more. They want what the United States has flaunted. They want the American dream. But they want it wrapped in a turban, served with fine vodka and no more white rice.

They’ve also learned the meaning of another English proverb: “Strike while the iron is hot…”

There is no doubt that that the international media often depicts the United States as an absurd mix between the playground bully and the dunce in the corner. When was the last time you heard an international story praising the U.S. position on anything? From economics to foreign policy, bureaucratic regulation to welfare statism, the United States has become the international piñata.

The fact is, many nations — especially BRIC nations — would like to increase their own amount of “loot” by beating it out of the United States.

The question is, can they do it? Can they decrease the usability of the U.S. dollar while increasing their own. The United States seems fairly determined to bring the first portion to pass by its own volition. The BRICs may not need much help in that arena. But does that automatically guarantee them a seat at the table? Does a U.S. decline mean, ipso facto, that any one, or all four, of these countries gets moved to the head of the class?

I’m not sure that question has been thought through. Frankly, I believe they just see an opportunity and figure they will jump on it. But only lightly. Because there are repercussions, and some of them are not so favorable.

As they’ve sent up a hue and cry for a supranational currency, I have to wonder if they have really learned any lessons at all. Their complaints have centered around a single manipulated currency at whose mercy they find themselves. They seem to intuitively know that a fiat currency system is flawed. It is flawed because men are easily corrupted.

After all, what good is the guilt of corruption, and who would want to bear that burden, unless they could effectively salve their conscience by the increase of wealth? In short, power is rarely of any use to men unless it results in more money. That’s what the United States is being accused of (and rightly so). We have taken our position of unquestioned strength and used it to create the illusion of wealth at home, at the expense of our neighbors. And now the neighbors don’t like it.

But what is their solution? More of the same. Another fiat currency. Actually, a currency made up of a basket of currencies. This should really strike us as hilariously funny, if it weren’t so sad. And by sad, I mean stupid.

It’s like draining bad oil out of a motor and replacing it with equally bad oil. Or like removing a tire that has a nail in it, only to replace it with one that is dry rotted. Or like trading a job you hate for one that will eventually kill you. Or like… well, I hope you get the picture. Essentially, the solution they have put forward is no different from the problem they’re attempting to repair.

And that’s not the only problem…

Here’s what I mean. Both India and Russia still receive foreign aid from the United States. They’re rather like a rebellious teenager who takes potshots at their parents while holding out their hands for cash and car keys.

Beyond that, consider that the BRIC nations hold over 30% of the U.S. Treasury market. That’s a lot of eggs in one basket. So when they start grumbling about policy, they can really strike a fire. On the other hand, upsetting the basket breaks a lot of their own eggs.

The problem is that they must measure their blows carefully. If memory serves correctly, it was China who fired the first shots across the bow of the U.S. economic state. But then, like a playground dog pile, Russia jumped on top as well. Then, lo and behold, the statements are retracted (or at least ameliorated!).

This has gone back and forth, and I imagine it will for some time, since they can ill-afford to knock the United States completely off its horse. To that end, the BRICs have discussed intermarket trading with each other while bypassing the U.S. dollar and talking about a new currency reserve.

Now this is some pretty braggadocio poppycock from upstart powers that “wannabe.” It was just a decade ago that Russia scored big on the international monetary scene by defaulting on a $40 billion dollar debt. (That was back in the day when a billion dollars actually meant something!)

If that were you or I, we’d still have that default on our credit report! And no one would let us forget it, no matter how well we had rearranged our household finances.

So then… have these four countries turned the corner financially? Have any of them got the economic muscle to merge the other three into a formidable monetary force against the United States? Let’s take a look.

Last year during the first leg of the global economic collapse, commodities took a real whack. So did the economies associated with their production and distribution. That means oil — and that means Russia and Brazil.

Even though the Russian stock market climbed more than 6,000% in the previous 10 years, it fell 80% in the eight months of crisis. 80%! While it was the worst of the BRIC alliance, Brazil fared little better. Its equities were down 60%!

And how about the other two BRICs in the wall? Indian stocks were down almost 65%, and Chinese companies… a whopping 73%!

We also now know that while Russia’s equities were tanking, so was their currency, the ruble. After losing nearly 60% of its value, the bleeding was only stopped when Russian authorities jumped in and sold nearly $200 BILLION worth of dollars to support their currency in crisis. That was nearly one-third of their currency reserves — up in smoke to defend an already overvalued currency.

Now, after all that, they start talking about the concept of buying one another’s bonds, and lessening their investment exposure in the United States.

Now let me ask you a simple question: If you had to buy the bonds of either the United States or Russia, which would make you feel safer? One that defaulted on their debt not so long ago and was just hemorrhaging the value of their currency in the last six months? I’m not saying that America is rock solid as an investment, but if you have to pick the lesser of two evils, who you gonna choose?

At this point the U.S. dollar index is hovering around 80 against the weighted basket of currencies by which its value is measured. Last June it was around 72.50 at its lows. That puts it up about 10% on the year.

Conversely, the rupee, real, and ruble, even after some recovery, are still down 35%, 25% and 35% respectively.

Also, consider that from top to bottom of the crisis moves, the ruble was down nearly 60%, the real nearly 70% and the rupee down 30%.

China, of course, has continued to peg its currency, the yuan / renminbi, to the dollar, so such fluctuations, “don’t exist.” Because when a nation, like China, pegs its currency to another nation’s currency, such as the United States, the foreign authorities continually buy and sell their own currency to keep it in a trading range against the other. That way it never suffers from severe fluctuation shock.

But when all is said and done, this betrays the fragility of each of their economies, and how connected they are to dollar based difficulties. So as they chop away at the tree, they had better be careful lest it fall on them.

It is hard to say what the future may bring in terms of changes, but even now, although the BRIC’s are referred to as an alliance or “federation,” the only two countries that have a trade relation of any substance with one another are Russia and China. India and Brazil see very little trading action with them, and are not even in their top seven in terms of import/export volume.

Just some things to keep in mind as we take a closer look at the news…

BRICs Buying Less Debt

Last week we talked about the Treasury Income Capital (TIC) figures, which shows foreign net purchases of long-term U.S. securities. Essentially, it’s a measure of how foreigners are funding U.S. debt.

The headline April TIC number fell to $11.2 billion from the $55.4 billion recorded in March.

Additionally, we’ve learned that the current account deficit for Q1 was a negative $101 billion. The TIC data for January through March showed foreigners funding only $40 billion of that deficit. That means effectively we were a negative $61 billion in the hole as a country for Q1. We are still paying our bills — so where did the money pay them come from?

In line with our theme for the week, China’s purchases of U.S. Treasuries decreased to $10.3 billion from $14.8 Billion. Russia and Brazil showed small outflows in April, which was similar to the past few months. But the biggest change came from Japan, which showed an outflow of -$1.2 billion, way down from the previous $23.2 Billion inflow.

While one series of number releases does not make a trend, one can’t help but wonder where this will lead. As we covered last week, there are only two destinations that I know. If foreign entities are unwilling to fund our deficits with the higher Treasury yields (up from 2.1% to 3.75%), one of two things will happen:

1. Yields have to go up more, raising rates across the spectrum from mortgages to loans to credit cards, thus inducing a second wave of “Credit Crunch”

2. Or foreigners will NOT fund our U.S. deficits. That means the Fed will purchase more U.S. Treasuries, and it means they will print more cash to do so.

Neither of these choices bodes well for the United States or the U.S. Dollar. Only time will tell us if April data was a fluke month or if it was a sign portending things yet to be.

But not all is dreary in the world. Our friend Chuck Butler over at EverBank had this to say:

“It seems that Australia’s government has decided to put government backing on state-issued bonds like the QTC’s (Queensland Treasury).

“This is HUGE for these bond issues, especially since Australian states were seeing downgrades in ratings! The country of Australia has a higher rating, so these bonds will also inherit that rating, since the government is backing them!

“However, this will tighten up the yield on these bonds, probably by about 10-15 basis points.

“Why is this important? If the QTC bonds now have a higher rating, more institutions will be able to buy them. That means more investments flowing into Australia, and more cash flows into Aussie dollars!”

The thing here is that in the long run, this is good for the Aussie dollar!

Thanks, Chuck! Notice he said, “in the long run.” Since that news broke last week, the Aussie dollar has been on a fall. But as soon as it firms up a bit, we’ll be jumping back on board!

And here’s a little good news from Stateside (especially for the Fed). Consumer inflation dropped 1.3% over the last 12 months, the biggest decline since 1950. What? No inflation in the United States? Hey, Ben! Keep those presses rollin’! We can continue to “stimulate.” Good Lord, deliver us!

Also, some other good news — continuing claims for unemployment finally dropped last week, ending their heartbreaking streak. Hard to say what this week will hold, so we’ll wait and see.

We will also be looking at the Treasury auction this week. The U.S. government will be issuing a record $104 billion of 2-year, 5-year and 7-year Treasury notes between Tuesday and Thursday. Traders are watching these auctions because of their sheer enormity and also because it will shed some light on whether bond buyers are willing to fund the growing U.S. budget deficit. If demand comes up short, the dollar could get whacked. But, as always, it is not that simple.

You can’t just sell the dollar if the auction appears weak. Because weak demand may drive up yield rates, which will be good for the dollar, as long as there are buyers. And as I’ve covered above, there are likely to be more dollar buyers than there are those who buy everything else.

Thus as we come to the end of our musings and examinations today, we are looking at consolidations taking place.

The euro has been locked in a down drifting channel but remains in a larger uptrend. And now it is hanging around a crossroad. Yogi Berra said once said, “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.” We are currently waiting to see which road the euro will take. Yesterday’s move up was unusually strong and uncharacteristic. We will watch to see if it was just short covering or a real rally beginning.

The pound can’t quite seem to make up its mind either. It has out-appreciated its European counterpart and moved higher. But we may see some weakness to come, as it is having difficulty pressing up at this level. If it breaks through, however, we could be in for another extended run.

The Aussie has drifted further down, but has not violated its 30-day lows. Just about time to take a new position here. But we need to wait for a bit more confirmation.

Today the Fed will announce interest rates. No one expects that they will be changed. But we do expect to hear something on the Fed’s view of the economy. In his last appearance before Congress, he stated in no uncertain terms that the deficits could not continue. Now deficits are not really his department. That is the domain of Congress. But if he hints at the fact that the existing Treasury buy-up is going to be stopped at $300 billion, this could be massive for the dollar. There are only two paths ahead of us.

Bernanke knows as well as any, that inflating the currency further will lead to dollar destruction. It is my feeling that as the dollar has seen a sell-off, that this month they are going to stand on the other end of the see-saw and talk up some dollar strength.

Regards,
Bill Jenkins

June 25, 2009

BRIC Nations Getting Bolder was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder