Dan Amoss, CFA, is managing editor for Strategic Short Report and a contributing editor to Whiskey and Gunpowder. Dan joined Agora Financial from Investment Counselors of Maryland, investment adviser for one of the top small-cap value mutual funds over the past 15 years. As a buy-side analyst, Dan refined his value investing approach by meeting with corporate executives and sell-side analysts and writing proprietary research for the fund’s management team. Dan has made appearances on MarketWatch, and was quoted in Corporate Finance Review, a Thomson Reuters publication.
We’re fast approaching the critical 1,040 “support” on the S&P 500 – below which technical analysts tell us there is a dark abyss that includes a retest of the March 2009 lows.
The idea goes: If the S&P falls below 1,040, then we’re likely to revisit the lows below 700. Who ...read more
1. What’s the best way to short the S&P 500 right now, considering its volatility?
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Dan: I approach short selling the way a value investor approaches buying: find stocks with huge disparities between price and intrinsic value. Only with short selling, you’re looking for stocks priced at least 50% to 100% ...read more
Gary Gibson: Dan, you said the summer should be the best environment for short selling since 2008. That implies a lot of declining stocks. How bad is the outlook for stocks really and why?
Dan Amoss: Okay, well I start from the assumption that most economists and analysts are ignoring the ...read more
Be Prepared for the Best Short Market in Years
Shorting stock is probably one of the most unusual ways to make money on Wall Street. And I think the best way to explain it is with a story.
Say a friend lets you borrow his brand-new car for an extended time. So ...read more
Get Ready to Profit from a Summer of Decline
First, let me make this perfectly clear:
Shorting a stock is NOT taking money out of someone else’s pocket.
You are NOT doing anything to make the stock fall in value.
And you are NOT profiting from someone else’s misfortune.
Instead, short selling is about taking ...read more
Most money managers have misdiagnosed what’s currently driving the global economy. The multiple that investors are willing to pay for next year’s earnings means more than any sentiment polling.
The forward P/E multiple on the broad stock market is not nearly as high as it was during the Internet bubble, but ...read more
Nearly every economic and corporate development over the past few months has been translated into a reason to buy stocks.
But underneath the elation over Dow 10,000 lies the palpable feeling that this rally is to be “rented,” not “owned.”
As cool weather descended upon the Northeast U.S., risk appetites started to ...read more
The FDIC is considering tapping its emergency line of credit with the Treasury. FDIC Chair Sheila Bair recently hinted after a speech at Georgetown University that all options are on the table when it comes time to replenish the dwindling Deposit Insurance Fund. We’ll find out more in the next ...read more
Always follow the oil market closely, because it will impact the fundamentals of many businesses -- including those we are selling short.
Drivers in the U.S. no longer determine the global price of oil. So oil prices can remain high despite a weak labor market -- as we saw in the ...read more
With vacation season ending in the Northern Hemisphere, we’ll start to see analysis rooted in experience and common sense driving stock prices. Through much of the summer, trading has been dominated by “quant” funds that are prone to “garbage in, garbage out” decision systems. You can see it in the ...read more
