Most money managers have misdiagnosed what’s currently driving the global economy. The multiple that investors are willing to pay for next year’s earnings means more than any sentiment polling.
The forward P/E multiple on the broad stock market is not nearly as high as it was during the Internet bubble, but ...read more
This Stock Market Rally Is Rented, Not Owned
Oct 19th, 2009 | By Dan Amoss | Category: Featured, Investing Strategies
Nearly every economic and corporate development over the past few months has been translated into a reason to buy stocks.
But underneath the elation over Dow 10,000 lies the palpable feeling that this rally is to be “rented,” not “owned.”
As cool weather descended upon the Northeast U.S., risk appetites started to ...read more
GDP’s Debt to Credit
Sep 23rd, 2009 | By Dan Amoss | Category: Featured, Macro Economics
The FDIC is considering tapping its emergency line of credit with the Treasury. FDIC Chair Sheila Bair recently hinted after a speech at Georgetown University that all options are on the table when it comes time to replenish the dwindling Deposit Insurance Fund. We’ll find out more in the next ...read more
Inflation and Oil Prices: Our Next Move
Aug 28th, 2009 | By Dan Amoss | Category: Energy, Featured, Oil
Always follow the oil market closely, because it will impact the fundamentals of many businesses -- including those we are selling short.
Drivers in the U.S. no longer determine the global price of oil. So oil prices can remain high despite a weak labor market -- as we saw in the ...read more
REITs Racing to Bankruptcy
Aug 27th, 2009 | By Dan Amoss | Category: Featured, Macro Economics
With vacation season ending in the Northern Hemisphere, we’ll start to see analysis rooted in experience and common sense driving stock prices. Through much of the summer, trading has been dominated by “quant” funds that are prone to “garbage in, garbage out” decision systems. You can see it in the ...read more
Bank Accounting Fudges Loan Losses
Aug 13th, 2009 | By Dan Amoss | Category: Featured, Investing Strategies
Investors often assume dangerous, unnecessary risks by owning stocks on the basis of sloppy economic and financial analysis. For each stock you own, you should frequently reassess the reasons for owning it. Also, you need to remain on the lookout for signals that the future operating environment for a particular ...read more
Banking, the Federal Government and the Free Market
Jun 23rd, 2009 | By Dan Amoss | Category: Featured, Morning Whiskey
This week's big market development was the announcement of proposed reforms for the flock of federal regulators that apparently "supervise" the banking system. You wouldn't know there was much supervision going on based upon the events of the past year.
Predictably, we're likely going to see the addition of another big ...read more
Stock Strategies: Random Predictions for 2009
Jan 12th, 2009 | By Dan Amoss | Category: Commodities, Featured
I’m happy to turn the page on 2008. We had a great streak of profitable trades in Strategic Short Report, but it still was a stressful, painful year to be an investor. Even if you’re far more patient and disciplined than most investors, you still were punished in 2008.
Dozens of ...read more
Strong Resource Companies Will Survive… The Dollar May Not
Oct 9th, 2008 | By Dan Amoss | Category: Currencies, Economics, Macro Economics
Out of the thousands of hedge funds in existence, hundreds are closing up shop and liquidating, if the latest trading action was any indication. Many of these hedge funds should never have been started to begin with, because their illusory gains during the credit bubble were too often made with ...read more
Government Regulation of Short Sellers
Sep 23rd, 2008 | By Dan Amoss | Category: Economics, Macro Economics
“Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes her laws.”
— Mayer Amschel Rothschild
Let’s observe a moment of silence to mourn the slow demise of capitalism in the U.S.
Our government is now overtly manipulating the stock market. We have “crossed the Rubicon.” We can no longer ...read more

