Dan Amoss, CFA, is managing editor for Strategic Short Report and a contributing editor to Whiskey and Gunpowder. Dan joined Agora Financial from Investment Counselors of Maryland, investment adviser for one of the top small-cap value mutual funds over the past 15 years. As a buy-side analyst, Dan refined his value investing approach by meeting with corporate executives and sell-side analysts and writing proprietary research for the fund’s management team.
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Sep 17th, 2008 |
By Dan Amoss |
Category: Commodities
It has been a brutal couple of months for commodities investors. Prices may have temporarily overshot fundamentals on the upside in June. But the opposite situation now exists. The commodity sector wipeout of the last two months has obliterated any froth or excess. And now, prices may overshoot to the ...
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Tags: commodity bull market, commodity hedge funds, commodity markets, commodity sector wipeout
Posted in Commodities |
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Aug 21st, 2008 |
By Dan Amoss |
Category: Macro Economics
“You know, you saw subprime go first, and then, on a slight lag, you saw home equity, and now in the lag, you’re seeing prime go. And it’s exactly the same loss factors. But remember, the components of where we are in the states…[are] very different. And we started doing ...
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Tags: capital shortfalls, financial stock rally, Mutual Funds, short selling
Posted in Macro Economics |
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Aug 5th, 2008 |
By Dan Amoss |
Category: Macro Economics
Last year, I devoted several issues of my Strategic Investment service to the web of structured finance. I think it paid off.
Since then, banks and brokerage stocks were punished. Energy and material stocks have soared-thanks to the Fed’s inflation campaign. Fed officials have taken their ability to devalue the U.S. ...
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Tags: credit crisis, Fed inflation, financial market speculation, George Soros
Posted in Macro Economics |
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May 28th, 2008 |
By Dan Amoss |
Category: Macro Economics
Since the rescue of Bear Stearns on March 17, the Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index has rallied 20%. The shares of Lehman Brothers have rocketed more than 30%. These dramatic rallies support the popular thesis that “the worst is over” for the financial sector. But these dramatic rallies also provide attractive ...
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Tags: Bear Stearns, Federal Reserve, investment banks, Lehman Brothers, lending facility
Posted in Macro Economics |
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Mar 19th, 2008 |
By Dan Amoss |
Category: Macro Economics
THE GOVERNMENT CANNOT BEND THE ECONOMY to its will, as most economists appear to believe. The economy is infinitely complex, and instead bends to the will of billions of spending and investing choices. Yet some economists still try to tweak the economy if it does not suit a political agenda, ...
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Tags: free market, investment cycles, paper money, the Fed
Posted in Macro Economics |
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Jan 18th, 2008 |
By Dan Amoss |
Category: Emerging Markets
THINK OF THE LAST TIME YOU BOUGHT A HOUSE or refinanced a mortgage. How did you decide on where to get your mortgage? Many mortgage shoppers who compare quotes online discover a stunning array of choices.
This development has placed consumers in the driver’s seat when it comes to choosing a ...
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Tags: Bankrate Inc, internet mortgage shopping, short sale
Posted in Emerging Markets |
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Jan 10th, 2008 |
By Dan Amoss |
Category: Oil
PEOPLE ARE AMAZED BY NUMBERS. Benchmarks and records can have huge psychological effects on the way people view a problem. So why are people so slow to react to this new milestone?
Oil has finally reached $100 per barrel, yet few people on the distant end of oil supply lines are ...
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Tags: Export Land Model, oil exporting, OPEC, U.S. imported oil
Posted in Oil |
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Dec 17th, 2007 |
By Dan Amoss |
Category: Macro Economics
BANKS AND OTHER FINANCIAL COMPANIES OPERATE with lots of leverage. This is good for bank shareholders when times are good, but very bad when loan losses start impairing assets.
If a bank were to invest its capital 6% in mortgages on an “unlevered” basis, its return on equity would be 6% ...
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Tags: bank repairs, subprime lending, subprime mortgage lenders
Posted in Macro Economics |
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Nov 29th, 2007 |
By Dan Amoss |
Category: Commodities
A LITTLE GIRL SITS IN A MOVIE THEATER chomping on a piece of bubble gum. She begins to blow a bubble, bigger and bigger, eventually eclipsing her view of the screen. Lost in the fantasy and action on screen, the girl continues to expand the bubble oblivious to the consequence ...
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Tags: eastern european real estate, real estate bubble
Posted in Commodities |
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Nov 5th, 2007 |
By Dan Amoss |
Category: Currencies, Macro Economics
IMAGINE THAT YOU RECENTLY borrowed your friend’s car and now you can’t seem to find it. It wasn’t stolen, it wasn’t towed, you’ve simply misplaced it. You’re in trouble, and your friend is definitely going to be angry. Isn’t now the best time to also tell him any other bad ...
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Tags: 'kitchen sink' quarters, bank rate cuts, investment banks
Posted in Currencies, Macro Economics |
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