If you’re a supporter of the bill, you’d point to its benefits: Poor adults will get Medicaid. Low-income families will get federal subsidies to buy insurance. Small businesses may get tax credits. Kids will be able to stay on the parents’ policy until they turn 26. Seniors get additional prescription drug coverage. People with pre-existing medical conditions can’t be denied or dropped.

While no one is really against any of those things, the elephant in the room (or boa constrictor in the bed) is how those things are going to be paid for. Here’s how: the “wealthy” will pay higher taxes; businesses with 50 or more employees will have to insure them or pay a penalty; individuals will have to pay a fine if they don’t buy insurance; premiums will rise for many who already have insurance; and seniors with Medicare Advantage policies could lose those plans or pay more to keep them.

Regardless of how you feel about the bill, the fact is that taxes are going up, and not necessarily just on the “wealthy.” The healthcare plan will cost $940 billion over the next decade, almost $100 billion a year.

I haven’t read the 2,407-page bill (almost twice as long as the Gutenberg Bible), but there are plenty now who have. Here’s a summary I compiled, from various sources, that outlines the tax ramifications of what is now the law of the land.

Assuming the Senate passes the package of changes, the biggest tax increases will be in Medicare payroll taxes. Those take two forms, both starting in 2013:

• Singles earning more than $200,000 and couples earning $250,000 will pay 0.9% more on wages and self-employment income.

• All investment earnings will be taxed an additional 3.8%. This includes capital gains, dividends, and interest, the first time in history the Medicare tax is applied to them.

But keep in mind that the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of this year, which will push the Medicare tax on capital gains to 23.8% in 2013 on these earners. Dividends, currently taxed at the top rate of 15%, will be taxed as ordinary income, with the top rate scheduled to rise to 39.6% (from 35%).

This means that the tax on dividends could go as high as 43.4% when the new Medicare tax goes into effect in 2013. (Obama has proposed a top dividend tax rate of 20%, so if Congress enacts his proposal, the top tax rate for dividends would “only” rise to the 23.8% level in 2013.)

You may think you’ll escape this tax if you’re not “rich.” But it’s those darn Unintended Consequences politicians never seem to think about that could still sting you. For example, the 3.8% Medicare surtax could snag you if you happen to sell some real estate for a big gain.

The other major tax increase is the one imposed on health insurance plans that are more generous, the so-called “Cadillac” health plans. And this tax increase doesn’t just apply to high-income earners; those state and union workers that lobbied for better health coverage instead of big pay increases are going to find they’re included with the “rich” in a new excise tax. Starting in 2018, family insurance plans valued at more than $27,500 ($10,200 for individuals) would pay a 40% tax above that level.

Ouch.

And there’s other ways you’ll be taxed, particularly through the magic of “passing it on to the consumer.”

For example, pharmaceutical manufacturers will pay an annual fee based on their market share starting in 2011; same for health insurers, starting in 2014. A 2.3% excise tax on the sale of medical devices will start in 2013. A 10% excise tax on indoor tanning services goes into effect this July.

How will all these businesses afford the additional tax? They won’t. You’ll pay it, through higher prices.

Further, were you one of those who incurred medical expenses above 7.5% of your income, thus allowing you to deduct them? That ceiling will be 10% starting in 2013. (It remains 7.5% for those over 65.)

There’s more, most of it in the form of greater restrictions, increased penalties, and higher fines on various entities, businesses, health plans, or individuals. But what I especially cringed at was this: the bill vastly expands the responsibilities of, and gives greater strength to, the IRS. The agency will hire as many as 16,500 additional auditors, agents, and other employees just to enforce all the new taxes and penalties.

Specifically, the bill will empower the IRS to do the following: verify citizens have “acceptable” health care coverage; impose fines up to $2,085 or 2% of income (whichever is greater) for failure to purchase “minimum essential coverage”; confiscate tax refunds; and increase audits.

The upshot is that this will force many taxpayers to be more conscientious of monitoring their income and tax withholding.

Perhaps most damaging to the government’s plans is if the bill leads some to ask the Ayn Rand/Atlas Shrugged questions: What if I just stop being productive? What if I stop working once my income approaches the threshold? What if I invest less so that I stay under the limits? [Your editor has already started asking these very questions and wonders why anyone with the means doesn’t prepare a potentially permanent residence outside of the U.S.—ed.]

And last, here’s the time bomb that could trump the tax concerns: none of these taxes are indexed to inflation. Since the bill fails to index to inflation the exemption threshold for the Medicare taxes on both earned and unearned income, it’s almost certain many taxpayers will get to these tax levels a whole lot quicker than they think.

What this essentially means is there is now more incentive on the part of the government that we have inflation. If inflation reaches 10% at some point, which is below the 14%+ rate it hit in 1980 and far below any hyperinflationary level that’s possible, the $100,000 earner gets to the magical $200,000 level in seven-and-a-half years. From the government’s perspective, it makes the printing of money a lucrative affair.

Regards,
Jeff Clark, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report
for Whiskey & Gunpowder

March 25, 2010

Healthcare Is a Tax Plague was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.

Building a core position in gold bullion is a smart goal, to be sure, and a strategy Casey Research has been advising for years. However, ignoring the price you pay for gold could be seen as foolhardy; sure, it’s insurance, but isn’t price part of the consideration when you shop for insurance?

So, who’s right?

The World Gold Council just released their 2009 annual report on gold trends. From the densely populated pages of interesting data, there’s one compelling tidbit I gleaned that may shed some light on the buying behavior of gold investors.

Overall investment in gold was 7% higher in 2009 than 2008. This is significant when you consider that demand in the fourth quarter of 2008 – during one of the worst financial meltdowns in history – was so great that shortages of physical metal abounded everywhere. And yet investors bought more gold in 2009 when investor fear about global financial uncertainty was subdued.

Further, 2009 total funds invested in all forms of gold exceeded 2008 by 20%, and the average price was 11.6% higher. In other words, investors were buying gold even though the price wasn’t necessarily “low.” To be sure, that’s a broad statement. But the fact remains that year-on-year, more gold was purchased at higher prices when the markets were less scary, than when the price was lower and Hank Paulson was on CNBC every 15 minutes pontificating on how to save America’s financial system.

This isn’t to suggest one shouldn’t pay attention to price. And the data doesn’t identify how many of those who purchased gold last year were first-time buyers, as certainly there were newcomers to the sector that contributed to higher demand. But it begs the question, who would continue to buy gold when the price is higher?

Whoever doesn’t own enough, that’s who. The gold I bought last month was certainly higher priced than what I paid in 2008. But I’m trying to position my assets for protection from eventual dollar debasement and rising inflation. So perhaps focusing more on acquiring sufficient ounces to withstand a storm rather than stubbornly buying none, waiting for “cheaper” prices, however you define that, is a better mindset. Not owning enough gold is equivalent to holding a million-dollar mortgage and having a $10,000 life insurance policy. It won’t help much when you really need it.

Of course we should pay attention to price. But the trick is not letting that distract you from buying what you need. You’re not buying gold bullion as a speculation (although we expect to make a bundle on our holdings), but as a sound form of cash in an environment where government has no respect for a balance sheet and sees inflation as the only way out of its black hole of debt. During periods of inflation, the government does fine; it’s the citizens that suffer from the lost purchasing power of their savings. It’s clear our currency is being debased. What’s your plan of defense?

For those diligently accumulating gold, how do you know when you have enough? Check your anxiety quotient. If Ben continues printing money or Obama promises more goodies than he has the money to pay for, and you remain calm, then you likely have adequate gold. These are the investors who can afford to be stubborn about price as they build their holdings. In my opinion, this is where we all want to be.

What form of gold should you buy? It depends on why you’re buying it. If you understand gold’s role in history, owning a physical form will come naturally to you. If you see the threat of inflation on the horizon, or you worry about what is being done to the dollar, you’ll own both coins and an ETF. If you’re worried about possible exchange controls someday, you’ll consider a Perth Mint Certificate. And the more gloomy your outlook about the global economy, the greater the percentage of all forms of gold you’ll buy.

That said, we maintain a bias toward physical ownership. GLD and other gold ETFs are fine and do offer protection. But the custodian isn’t going to airmail gold to you when you cash in your shares; having the “hard money” in your hand gives you the freedom an ETF cannot. In our book, owning physical gold, in the form of one-ounce coins, is where your first dollar should go.

I remember when my wife and I decided it was time to get life insurance. We’d just had our kids, and it was time to play grown-up. Given what 5,000 years of history has taught us about the value of gold, and given what’s happening at this moment in history to our currency, are you playing grown-up with your investments?

Regards,
Jeff Clark, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report
for Whiskey & Gunpowder

March 8, 2010

Price Per Ounce or Total Ounces Owned was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.

The reason there are so many “reasons” is because gold is unlike any other asset. It…

• responds to its own supply and demand
• protects against short-sighted government actions and interventions
• is a bellwether of market sentiment and economic outlook
• protects against currency devaluation and inflation
• is global
• is one of the most beautiful metals ever found in the earth’s crust
• is a store of value
• is timeless
• is money

How many assets can you say have all those characteristics?

In spite of gold’s recent correction, the reasons haven’t decreased. In fact, the case for holding gold is stronger than ever. And over the past two weeks, a few “reasons” have surfaced that have fallen mostly under the radar. These, I believe, portend a higher gold price. In fact, it is catalysts like these that could end up in our children’s history books that, in retrospect, were obvious to see…

1. For the first time ever, China has invested in GLD, the gold exchange-traded fund. Their sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corporation, recently invested $155 million in the ETF. The amount represents only 0.05% of the sovereign funds’ $300 billion, meaning there’s a lot more where that came from.

Those mainstream lemmings who predicted China was done buying gold now have to deal with the reality that this move more likely signals they are closer to the beginning — and not the end — of a long-term strategy to diversify into gold.

2. The Prime Minister’s Office in India is creating a stream-lined process so that the country’s state-owned corporations can “aggressively pursue the acquisition of strategic mineral resources.” The Indian government, normally known for thick-layered bureaucracy, has created a centralized body that will have “rapid strategic and decision making powers.” This is telling, both from the perspective that they see some urgency to the matter, and that the acquisition targets are minerals.

Given the country’s historic propensity to own gold, it’s not a stretch to think the yellow metal will be high on the list of “strategic investments.” Recall their government purchased almost half the IMF gold for sale last year in one fell swoop.

The upshot? Don’t be surprised to soon hear of India following China’s lead of buying precious metal companies and resources.

3. “Iran is now a nuclear state,” declared President Ahmadinejad last week. The Islamic republic has produced its first batch of high-level enriched uranium, which they claim is solely for electricity purposes but can also be used to create material for atomic weapons if enriched to 90%. In response, the U.S. imposed new sanctions, and the U.N. is considering adding more of its own sanctions, too.

The West recently proposed that Iran export its uranium for enrichment and then have it returned as fuel rods for a reactor. Iran demanded changes to that plan, which were rejected, so claimed they had “no choice” but to start enriching to higher levels on their own. “God willing,” declared Ahmadinejad, “daily production will be tripled.”

I’m sure this will all just blow over, right?

4. The U.S. government must inflate. Here’s another reason we think that sooner or later inflation trumps deflation… by 2020, government economists project that entitlement benefits (Social Security, Medicare, etc.), along with interest payments on the national debt, will devour 80% of all federal revenues.

This assumes entitlement benefits don’t grow, which, of course, they are. The overall national debt, meanwhile, will rise to 100% of GDP within a few years, an alarming level by any measure. Even Moody’s warned that our credit status could lose its triple-A rating if the nation’s finances don’t improve, an unheard-of prospect just a few years ago.

So, we’re abruptly fleeing our debt-adding habits, right? As you probably heard last month, Obama signed legislation that raised the cap on government debt from $12.4 trillion — already close to being breached — to $14.3 trillion to permit more borrowing. As Doug Casey has pointed out numerous times, this is the exact opposite of what the government should be doing and will have serious inflationary ramifications.

There’s only one way out: devalue the dollar to reduce the debt burden. And the direct result of that is a rising gold price. We may very well see another round of deflation, but the endgame is inflation.

What I would point out is that any one of these reasons would be sufficient for wanting to put some gold in your portfolio. It’s the cumulative effect that’s potentially scary, one that argues we should be overweight precious metals at this point in history. The reasons are numerous and, in my opinion, overwhelming.

Regards,
Jeff Clark
Senior Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report

February 23, 2010

1,001 Reasons to Own Gold was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.

To start, here’s something that will make you better informed than the typical traditional broker: take a look at where gold is currently being dug up around the world.

Tally it up, and North America accounts for only 16.3% of total global gold production. In other words, 83.7% of all the new gold every year comes from outside our continent.

Further, of the 15 largest gold deposits in the world, only five are in the U.S., Canada, or Mexico. Meaning, two-thirds are in regions where you don’t get cell phone coverage and the natives don’t speak your language.

The picture gets even sharper when you see the regions where production is increasing, vs. areas where it’s declining.

Several countries where gold has been traditionally mined, such as South Africa, Australia, and the U.S., are suffering production declines, while other areas, like China and South America, are just now starting to rev up.

In other words, not only is more gold being dug up outside our borders, more is being found there, too.

This has obvious implications for the gold stock investor who recognizes that the momentum is clearly behind the emerging countries. One geologist told me that some of these prospects are like Nevada was 100 years ago; wide open and full of gold deposits just waiting to be discovered.

Yes, there is risk, but the political winds are shifting in a more pro-mining direction here as well. In the U.S., for example, some members of Congress continue to promote a bill that could dramatically harm mining in the states, while China and many parts of South America are opening their doors to foreign companies. What would you rather invest in – a country trying to woo your investment dollars or one that is scheming to find new ways to take more of them away from you?

Gaia the Earth Goddess didn’t ask where we wanted our gold and silver deposited. And it is the underexplored – and in some cases the unexplored – regions that offer the most potential for new discoveries, greater production, and thus, higher investment returns.

Regards,
Jeff Clark
Editor of Casey’s Gold & Resource Report

February 17, 2010

Sooner or Later, You’ll Invest Abroad was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.

Money magazine’s January/February edition ran an article near the rear of the issue titled, “Coming Down with Gold Fever.” The author paints a decidedly negative picture of gold, going so far as to compare gold’s rise to some of history’s greatest asset bubbles (tulips in the 1630s, Internet stocks in the 1990s). The article is so blatantly biased and inaccurate that I decided to have a little fun with my rebuttal.

I affectionately refer to the gold debunkers as “Bert.” You judge if this author is worthy. What follows are the article’s claims, along with my advice on How to Talk to a Nincompoop (HTTTAN)…

“Gold is now the world’s ‘it’ investment.”

HTTTAN: You’re absolutely right! A few cable TV commercials clearly signal the world has latched on to gold and is dizzy with excitement. The bestsellers at my local bookshop all scream with titles about gold. The radio waves are sparking with talk about buying, storing, testing, and securing all the different options with gold. And all those live newscasts from the lines outside gold shops across the country are really getting old.

►If gold were in a mania, it would resemble the dotcom craze of 2000, where companies with no profits traded at 400 times earnings; when investors were leaving their brokers to chase the latest tech stock; and where everybody and their brother’s dog was talking about the hot technology stock they just doubled their money on. None of that is happening now.

Besides, there’s a good reason investors have been buying gold: it outperformed most other investments last year.

And gold stocks tripled the performance of the Dow, more than doubled that of the S&P, and outran the Nasdaq.

“The price of gold is the only thing rising… gas costs less than it did a year ago.”

HTTTAN: Well, my blood pressure rose when I read your article – does that count? And whew, I’m glad I misread my DirecTV bill announcing higher monthly charges. Higher fees from my bank? Must’ve had my glasses off while checking my last statement. So, are you suggesting we wait till there’s rampant inflation before we buy gold?

►To start, the national average gasoline price rose from $1.70 to $2.70 a gallon over the past year, a 58% increase. The data disproving this blatantly inaccurate and misleading claim is available free on the Internet. If you want to talk about things rising, how about the monetary base that more than doubled over the past 18 months to nearly $2 trillion, the steepest increase ever.

When you think of inflation, you apparently think “higher prices.” News flash: price inflation stems from monetary inflation, and monetary inflation has ballooned. Price inflation is a tidal wave building off the coast. Don’t get caught sipping piña coladas on the beach.

And you’re right: gold is the only thing that’s been rising over the past decade! Ergo, that’s been the place to be with a meaningful portion of one’s investments.

Gold is doing what it’s supposed to do: rise in times of crisis!

“Gold isn’t that inexpensive. And who says it’s guaranteed to return to old highs?”

HTTTAN: Who says?! How about the laws of economics! My teenage son even understands this: the more you print of something, the less each one is worth. And as the dollar continues deteriorating, gold will continue rising. And gee, Wally, they can’t print gold.

►Adjusted for inflation, gold’s peak at $850 in 1980 would equal about $2,300 today, more than double its current price. Guaranteed? Of course not. Where would I find a guaranteed investment? But I’ll put the 5,000-year history of gold ahead of anything that is touted as “guaranteed” in the popular press.

“Even China is wary of gold prices rising too much.”

HTTTAN: Huh? China’s recent comment that they may not buy much gold right now was referring to their desire to get a better price, not a change of heart. In fact, there are so many articles about how the Chinese want gold that it’s hard to catalog them all.

►Liu Yuhui, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said last quarter that China might again scale back purchases of U.S. debt on concerns the dollar will decline. And this after their holdings were already lower in November than they were last July. Is it possible the Chinese – and the myriad other governments concerned about what U.S. leaders are doing to the dollar – will stop buying gold for protection? Anything is possible, but it’s far more likely that they’re just getting started, considering that just 1.9% of their foreign reserves are held in gold. I think even Money magazine agrees with the merits of diversification.

And this just in: An ING survey reports that 45% of investors in Asian markets (excluding Japan) picked gold as their most favored tool to protect their returns from inflation, more than any other asset.

“Only a small number of sophisticated investors are getting in on the action.”

HTTTAN: You mean like some of the most successful hedge fund managers in the world? Wait – are you suggesting we follow your advice instead? I’ll consider that when you show me that article warning of a market top in ‘08 and urging your readers to get out. Instead, I seem to recall your magazine’s giddiness as the market peaked. Perhaps that explains why many “sophisticated” investors use your magazine as a contrary indicator.

► Investment management firm Moonraker reported in a 2009 survey that 20 out of 22 fund managers interviewed bought physical gold for personal investment because they fear quantitative easing programs may lead to inflation. In other words, not only are they buying gold in their funds, they’re stashing some at home.

Further, central banks are now net buyers of gold for the first time in 22 years. And last quarter it was reported by the Financial Times that the world’s wealthiest families are also switching to gold. ”Two-thirds of the 100 respondents to a survey by the Family Office Channel, a new website, said that super-rich families are now more likely to invest in gold and other commodities.”

“Since 1974, when restrictions on Americans’ owning gold were lifted, stocks have actually done a better job beating inflation than gold has.”

HTTTAN: You’re kidding, right? You actually know someone who has held a stock since 1974? I suppose we could contact Warren Buffett and get a couple names. Otherwise, get real: there’s a time for everything, and right now is clearly the time for precious metals.

► Doug Casey made a fortune investing in gold stocks in the mid-’90s during a mini bull market in gold. Generational wealth was created during the late ‘70s gold run. I have colleagues that have already retired from gains they made in gold stocks this past decade.

“Ask yourself how long this delirium can last.”

HTTTAN: Until people like you start telling readers to buy gold, that’s how long. And, delirium? Tsk-tsk, your envy is getting embarrassing.

►There has been little involvement by the general public in the current gold bull market. While there are many examples of this, perhaps the best one is that your magazine doesn’t recommend buying it and really never has. And when you finally do, that will be my signal to start selling. I might as well thank you now.

There’s actually more, but you get the idea. When I finished the article, I couldn’t help but wonder what Bert is really trying to sell us here. He’s clearly either biased, blind, or bought.

Because otherwise, he truly does meet the definition of my Grandma’s favorite word.

Regards,
Jeff Clark
Senior Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report

February 3, 2010

How to Talk to a Mainstream Nincompoop About Gold was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.

First came Enron, with $65.5 billion in assets, going belly-up and becoming the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history at that time. Chairman Kenneth Lay said that Enron’s decision to file bankruptcy would “stabilize the company,” but over the next five years the company was completely liquidated. The stock went from a high of $84.63 in December 2000 to a whopping 26¢ one year later.

And what had we been told by the media? Fortune magazine dubbed Enron “America’s Most Innovative Company” for six consecutive years. A well-intentioned friend wanted to give me a gift subscription to the magazine for Christmas; I choked on my cocktail and luckily he assumed my drink was too strong. In the end, you can thank Enron for bringing us the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, a ghastly financial reporting regulation for which compliance is grossly expensive, and — stop the presses! — hasn’t prevented similar repeats.

Next came WorldCom filing for bankruptcy in 2002, their assets of $103.9 billion dwarfing Enron’s. “We will use this time under reorganization to regain our financial health and focus, while operating with the highest integrity,” assured CEO John Sidgmore. Was his eggnog spiked? Today, WorldCom stock certificates have been spotted as doilies under pancake house coffee mugs signifying it’s decaf.

Tyco, Adelphia, Peregrine Systems… it’s a crowded field around this time. But their stories of fraud and greed and mismanagement get boring after awhile.

Bear Stearns set us all up for the Big Meltdown of 2008. It was B.S. (no, I mean Bear Stearns) that pioneered the asset-backed securities markets, and we all know how that turned out. Later we learned that as losses mounted in 2006 and 2007, the company was actually adding to its exposure of mortgage-backed assets, gearing itself up to 35:1. With net equity of $11.1 billion supporting $395 billion in assets, B.S. carried more leverage than a streetwalker’s push-up bra.

And during it all, Bear Stearns was recognized as the “Most Admired” securities firm in a survey by Fortune magazine (there’s that Lower Manhattan tabloid darling again). Frequent sightings of company executives on country club fairways assured the public that all was well. And CEO Alan Schwartz told us there was “no liquidity crisis for the firm” and insisted he “had the numbers to back it up.” His company was sold four days later to JPMorgan Chase at $10 per share, a 92% loss from its $133.20 high. Perhaps his numbers were prepared by ex-Arthur Andersen employees.

Lehman Brothers, the 158-year-old investment bank, was next and still today holds the title as the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. L.B. succumbed to 2007’s Word of the Year, “subprime,” and its $600 billion in assets all went poof! In just the first half of 2008, before the meltdown, Lehman’s stock slid 73%.

And what did CEO Dick Fuld tell us in April of that year? “I will hurt the shorts, and that is my goal.” He must have been referring to the attire of his tennis club buddies, because the ones who actually got hurt were numerous other banks, money market funds, institutions, hedge funds, REITs, brokers, private and public trusts, foundations, government agencies, foreign governments, employees, and investors.

Moving on to the largest U.S. government bailout recipient by far, AIG’s troubles spawned my favorite placard of the decade: seen outside their Manhattan offices stood a sign that simply read, “Jump!” Maybe its creator heard what I did from AIG’s financial products head Joseph Cassano: “It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one dollar in any of these [credit default swap] transactions.”

He must have substituted his prescription eyewear with those giant New Year’s Eve glasses, because the government sunk $180 billion into the company and it still had to be split up and the assets sold to the highest bidder. I’m sure that his non-flippant comment had nothing to do with him making CNN’s “Ten Most Wanted Culprits” list in 2008.

GM, with $91 billion in assets, filed for bankruptcy in the summer of 2009 and is now largely owned by the U.S. and Canadian governments (i.e., taxpayers). The $19.4 billion in federal help wasn’t enough to keep the nation’s largest automaker out of bankruptcy. But don’t despair: the government is pouring another $30 billion into GM to fund “reorganization operations.”

GM shares? Bye-bye. For 83 years GM had been a member of the prestigious 30 Dow Industrial stocks. It managed to survive the Great Depression but not this decade’s Greater Depression. Yet chairman Ed Whitacre had insisted, “I remain more convinced than ever that our company is on the right path and that we will continue to be a leader in offering the worldwide buying public the highest quality, highest value cars and trucks.” I wonder what he thinks now that the stock is named “Motors Liquidation,” trades only on the pink sheets, and sells for about 50¢?

Topping off our list is the infamous Bernie Made-off (er, Madoff), who scammed $65 billion over 20 years from unsuspecting institutions and wealthy investors. But don’t be too upset, because the number is probably half that amount. Hey, the alleged size of the losses comes from his own ledger book, and should we really trust his balance sheet? Dubbed the largest Ponzi scheme ever, I beg to disagree, as you’re about to see…

By now you are probably wondering… what’s bigger than all these? He’s covered the major frauds and scams of the past decade — what could possibly be left?

To quote my favorite sleuth, Hercule Poirot, “When all the facts are laid before me, the solution becomes inevitable.”

Here are a few clues…

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on July 16, 2008, that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are “adequately capitalized” and “in no danger of failing.” Then-Secretary Treasurer Henry Paulson declared on August 10, 2008, “We have no plans to insert money into either of those two institutions.”

• Both Fannie and Freddie were nationalized 28 days later, on September 8, 2008. Ben Bernanke claimed on February 28, 2008, “Among the largest banks, the capital ratios remain good and I don’t expect any serious problems of that sort among the large, internationally active banks…” Henry Paulson added on July 20, 2008, that “It’s a safe banking system, a sound banking system. Our regulators are on top of it. This is a very manageable situation.”

• Since the recession started in December, 2008, 144 banks have failed. Paulson informed us on April 20, 2007, that “All the signs I look at show the housing market is at or near the bottom.”

• The number of foreclosures skyrocketed shortly thereafter and will now any day surpass those during the Great Depression. Ben Bernanke announced on June 20, 2007, that “[The subprime fallout] will not affect the economy overall.”

• Less than one year later, the stock market crashed, losing 53% of its value, and is still down 25% despite one of the biggest bounces in history.

Those in charge of our country’s finances not only failed to see the crises developing and then bungled the handling of the recovery, they’ve deliberately misled us about what they’re doing to our currency. In spite of emphatic promises, flowery speeches, pat-on-the-back assurances, and continual reassurances, here’s what they’ve actually done to the dollar:

• Since September 1, 2008, the monetary base has ballooned from $908 billion to $2.0 trillion. The current monetary base is now equal to bailing out General Motors 23 times.

• Bailout funds in 2008 and 2009 total $8.1 trillion. That’s almost 78 WorldComs. It’s over 123 Enrons.

• U.S. debt has risen sharply, from $6.2 trillion in 2002 to $12.1 trillion today. That’s over $39,000 per citizen.

• David Walker, the comptroller general of the Government Accountability Office from 1998-2008, warned that the U.S. is on the hook for $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities. Independent analysts peg the figure at near twice that. Whatever the number, it is incomprehensibly large. The only way we will meet these liabilities is to print the money and inflate them away.

We’re bailing out corporations that should fail, making financial promises we can’t keep, and adding layers of debt we can’t possibly repay. And the real killer is, if we don’t have the cash, we just print it. It is, by any reasonable account, the “blunder that will plunder” the next several generations. It is changing America permanently, and the problems will persist long after you and I are laid to rest. Bottom line: after all the bailout programs, housing initiatives, rescue efforts, stimulus schemes, bank takeovers, wars, unemployment benefit extensions, and numerous other promises, the biggest financial deception of the decade is what the U.S. government is doing to the dollar. Nothing else even comes close.

This reckless activity has spooked our foreign creditors, weakened our global standing, diluted our currency, is punishing savers and retirees, and ultimately sets us up for a level of inflation this country has never seen before.

Yet, what is the guardian of our economy and money telling us now?

“Will the Federal Reserve’s actions to combat the crisis lead to higher inflation down the road? The answer is no; the Federal Reserve is committed to keeping inflation low and will be able to do so. In the near term, elevated unemployment and stable inflation expectations should keep inflation subdued, and indeed, inflation could move lower from here.” (Ben Bernanke, December 7, 2009).

This is pure rubbish. If inflation could be controlled by just thinking stable inflation thoughts, then Ben should be able to grow a full head of hair by just thinking scalp follicle thoughts. This is so ridiculous, it’s insulting.

Government actions make a mockery of their words; what they say and what they do are diametrically opposed. It’s clear that inflation is not a question of if, but when.

Any level-headed individual has to conclude that there will be a steady — and likely accelerating — decline in the dollar’s purchasing power. It’s inevitable.

The great masses don’t quite understand it yet, but they will. There will be no escape from the cold, hard slap in the face citizens will receive when a high level of inflation arrives. And when it does, it will make a mockery of any opposing viewpoint.

So the question before you is simple: Will you be a prepared survivor for what lies ahead, despite what our government leaders tell us, or will you be a complacent victim of the biggest financial deception of the decade?

For me, there’s only one solution. Don’t kid yourself into thinking a man-made asset will protect your purchasing power. This is the time to be overweight gold and silver. I advise letting them serve their purpose for you.

Regards,
Jeff Clark
Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report

January 11, 2010

The Biggest Financial Deceptions of the Decade Have Nothing on the Fed was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.

Elmer Sutton’s eyebrows shot up when he saw the ad proclaiming gold stocks might make you wealthy.

It sounded like the perfect solution for his stock portfolio, loaded with investments going nowhere. He vaguely recalled hearing a little about gold, but if what the ad said was true, he thought he could make a killing.

So he called the broker and made an appointment for the next day. The broker seemed very knowledgeable and took the time to explain why he felt gold stocks were one of the best investments right now. He said this was not a get-rich-quick scheme, but that if you stuck with it, you could see potentially enormous profits. It sounded good. Elmer wrote a check for $2,500, and the broker bought three gold stocks for him.

The very next day, gold took a big drop and his spankin’ new gold stocks sold off hard. Not only that, there were riots in South Africa, where one of the companies was located. Elmer was instantly disgusted. He was losing money yet again. This time, however, he’d play it smart and get out before he lost it all – something his wife made sure he understood – so he hastily called the broker and told him he wanted his money back.

“Elmer, you can’t do that,” the broker told him. “This isn’t Woolworth’s.”

“I’m not buying them!” he yelled to the broker and slammed the phone down. Elmer wanted out, and that was that. He wasn’t about to lose any more money in the stock market.

Three years later, long after he’d forgotten about that broker, newspaper headlines were screaming about gold. Everyone at the party Elmer attended the night before was talking about how well their gold stocks were doing. His co-workers bragged about the good deals they were getting buying gold and silver coins. Everyone was talking about precious metals.

Elmer panicked; he didn’t want to be left behind. He scrounged around the house until he found the original confirmations of the trade he’d broken with “that broker”: 1,500 shares of Grootvlei at 35¢, 500 Anglo American at $2.50, and 1,000 Leslie at 50¢. He grabbed his newspaper and saw that Anglo was up 500% since then, and the others were paying dividends – this year alone – totaling more than he would have paid for his shares in 1976.

As the newspaper went limp in his hands, he had a vague recollection of the broker he met with and quickly tracked down the phone number. “I want to buy some gold stocks,” he breathlessly panted to the secretary answering the phone. She said the broker wasn’t in, and that while they would be happy to buy a stock for him, they were actually recommending investors sell their gold stocks.

Elmer couldn’t believe it. How ludicrous! Everyone he knew was buying, and he was personally acquainted with many people who were getting rich. He pushed on. “Look, everyone’s into gold right now. It’s on the front page of the paper, for crying out loud. So I want to buy some gold stocks right away.”

“That’s fine, sir, but I think you should talk to the broker first,” the secretary replied. “We really don’t recommend you do that.”

“I don’t care!” Elmer screamed, which he didn’t mean to do, but panic was setting in. “What’s this clown’s name anyway?”

“Doug Casey,” she replied.

Please Don’t Crowd the Emergency Exit

This true story explains how Doug Casey bought gold stocks at the very bottom of the market, as he took on those abandoned shares from Elmer. But today’s lesson underscores what Doug Casey saw back in the late 1970s: there’s certain to be a rush into gold and silver, and buying before Main Street catches gold fever is the only way to play this trend.

Because when Midas fever hits, prices will explode to the upside, for both the metals and the stocks. How do we know that?

First, let’s look at gold. If we added up all the gold ever mined on the planet, its total value would equal no more than $5 trillion at today’s prices. Yet, look at how this compares to the debt and bailouts and other monetary mischief of current governments…

Let’s make this chart very clear. Of the $5 trillion in gold ever mined…

• The U.S. government has thrown over twice as much at the economy in the past 12 months.

• The U.S. debt is more than double this amount so far this year.

• Total global government bailouts are almost four times larger (and this is a conservative figure; one estimate puts it at $24 trillion).

I intended to include annual gold production as one of the comparisons, but the chart isn’t big enough and neither is your monitor: 2008’s global gold production equaled about $73 billion, and to make that figure discernable on the chart would require the Global Bailouts bar to hit the ceiling above your head. That’s how small the gold market is.

The implications are undeniable: when the greater public rushes into gold – whether in response to inflation, dollar woes, war, whatever – the price will be forced up by an order of magnitude.

A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Dollars

While physical gold will protect our wealth, it’s the gold stocks that can potentially make us wealthy.

Once again, to get a sense of the Lilliputian size of the gold industry, I compared it to several other leading industries and stocks.

The value, as measured by market capitalization, of all gold producers around the world is less than Walmart’s. Every gold stock would need to nearly double just for the industry to match ExxonMobil. The oil and gas industry is about 12 times bigger.

When your neighbors and relatives and co-workers and friends all start clamoring to buy gold stocks, the pressure on prices will be enormous, rocketing our positions upwards.

Meanwhile – and admitting we’re first and foremost gold bugs – the picture for silver is even more dramatic. The potential for silver stocks is jaw-dropping.

If the gold industry is tiny, then silver’s $9 billion market cap makes it a nano industry. The entire silver industry is over 21 times smaller than gold’s! If gold explodes, silver will go supernova.

Consider these macro-facts about a micro-market and what they reveal about silver’s enormous potential:

• There are over 200 companies in the S&P 500 with a market cap larger than the entire market of silver producers

• There are five times more gold stocks than silver.

• Total silver production in 2008 was valued around $10.3 billion (at today’s prices). That represents just 1.5% of the $700 billion bailout last year, and 0.006% of the current U.S. monetary base.

• Of the 20 largest silver producers, only five actually call themselves a “silver” company, due to the fact that about 73% of all silver mined is a byproduct of other metals mining.

Any flood into the silver market would overwhelm it. In other words, the rise will be stunning. While it’s not going to happen tomorrow, I strongly suggest you get on board before that rocket ship takes off.

Just putting these charts together stirred my feelings of restlessness, making me anxious for the mania in precious metals to arrive. But the timing is not up to us. Be patient, because if you’re invested in gold and silver and the respective, high-quality stocks, you’re on the right side of this trend.

Regards,
Jeff Clark
Senior Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report

November 20, 2009

Gold Mania Means a Niagra Falls of Dollars Through a Precious Metals Market Garden Hose was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.

So, what was his reasoning: technical analysis of wave counts? falling demand? a telling ratio? sun spots? No, he noted that upscale department store Harrods in London began selling gold bullion and coins “over the counter,” ergo, the top was in. Nice try, “Bert,” but this is amateurish. You really shouldn’t be playing with the big boys if that’s the basis of your call.

Yes, gold will someday put in a top, and since the gold price is largely determined by psychology, the end of the bull run will be marked by behavioral types of signals. But calling a top in gold now is like declaring that WWII was over because the Allies won a small skirmish in early 1942. To have made such a statement, based on a small, isolated event, ignored the greater forces that had yet to play out and would have made any journalist or military strategist look foolish indeed.

And here’s why Bert looks equally silly today…

If the top were in, we’d be in the midst of an all-out Mania. Are we? Do you get the impression there’s a rush into gold by the greater public right now? Are headlines blazing the covers of major magazines pronouncing gold as the new investment king? Has Wall Street gone gaga over gold and silver? I ask because these are the true signs that a trend has entered its final blow-off top and would signal it’s time to get out.

I decided to put Bert’s prognostication to the test, and I invite you to play along.

First, I struck up casual conversations with my friends, neighbors, relatives, acquaintances, my wife’s co-workers – heck, even my seatmates on airplanes – angling to learn how much gold they were hoarding, about the killing they were making in gold stocks, and how they were getting rich from all their precious metal investments. (In fairness, I had to exclude my dad, who is an award-winning gold panner, but he’s the only one.)

I found no one – not one person – who is actively investing in anything gold or silver, let alone rushing to buy or hoard the stuff. I had two people who confided that they did own gold, but in both cases it was inherited. A few were curious how they would go about doing such a thing, and fewer asked if I thought they should. Most everyone looked at me blankly when I asked; they didn’t seem to know what I was talking about. When I got a reaction like that, it was pointless to ask about gold stocks. Of the handful I did ask, most had never heard of Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold producer.

Now ask yourself the same thing: how many of your family, friends, neighbors, and co-workers are buying gold and silver coins? Are any of them giving you hot stock tips about a fantastic gold producer, or telling you about the latest gold discovery made by a company in China? Have any fellow investors told you they’re dumping their brokers because they can select gold stocks better on their own? Anyone telling you they’re going to night school to learn the gold mining business?

Next, I surveyed a large sampling of print media looking for some of these signals that Bert surely had spotted. Over the past couple weeks, not one of the major business magazines I reviewed had anything on the cover about gold or silver. Further, there were no articles on precious metals, such as the best ways to buy or store all this gold everyone is buying.

One magazine ran an article about ways to prepare for inflation, and gold wasn’t even mentioned! I did see an ad from the U.S. Mint in another, along with a couple small ads in the back that said they had the best prices on bullion (right beside the teasers for buying a Russian wife), but that was it. Even the portfolio allocation models recommended in the articles I read made no specific mention of precious metals (one recommended a “resource” fund, but their discussion of it was centered around energy investments).

Other than the articles you seek out, how many mainstream magazines do you see extolling the virtues of gold and silver on their cover? How many bestsellers are prominently displayed at your nearest bookstore that scream at you to buy gold stocks? Are you getting fed up with all the junk mail you get about gold and silver?

Last, I went out of my way to look for stories on gold and silver on TV and radio. About all I could find were the same ads that popped up after last year’s Super Bowl commercial by Cash4Gold. A couple programs quote metals prices, and I was able to find another that actually used the word “gold” in a sentence. It might just be me, Bert, but I can’t find any news anchors talking about the latest gold discovery or that “must own” gold stock. No in-depth special reports from investigative journalists on the hot Canadian junior mining sector. Nothing on my radio about the best ways to store all the silver every smart investor has been buying.

How about you – are you feeling bombarded by TV and radio ads and segments on precious metals? Do you have the clear impression gold and silver are the hot new investing trend around the world? Are you Tivo-ing certain TV shows because of all the great info they provide about picking the next great gold stock?

If we were in a Mania, Bert, all of this would be happening. But it’s not. Those who buy gold coins in the U.S. are still largely viewed as members of a fringe group. There is no public discussion on gold, no insider tips on the latest hot gold stock, no special reports on how to store all the bullion you’ve collected. The psychology isn’t on our side yet. One signal does not a Mania make.

Last and perhaps most important, Bert, are you sure the dollar is done falling? You’re absolutely convinced we won’t see price inflation? Our current debt load won’t pose any future problems? No more worries about foreigners buying all that debt? Obama and Bernanke really have saved the day?

Bert, send me your shorted gold positions, I’ll buy them from you. And although the gold price could see a correction in the near term, and several more along its journey to “the top,” remember that battle in early1942 and all that had yet to occur before the war was over.

And one more thing: when you finally become breathless to buy gold stocks, I just might be ready to sell them to you.

Regards,
Jeff Clark

November 6, 2009

Why Gold Has a Long Way to Go was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are 6.783 billion earthlings. Meanwhile, CPM Group, a highly respected industry organization, estimates there are 4.8 billion ounces of above-ground gold in the world. And this includes jewelry, electronics, and dental. So, even if everyone around the world volunteered to have their chain, cross, or tooth melted into a coin, we’re already short. Those towards the end of the line are out of luck.

However, it’s worse than that. Of all the physical metal ever mined…

• 2.1 billion ounces, or 43%, is found in jewelry, decorative, and religious items.
• Private stock – gold already held by various private parties – accounts for 1.1 billion ounces.
• Official reserves (central banks, IMF, etc.) stand at 1 billion ounces.
• Industrial use accounts for 530 million ounces.

Very little of this is likely to come available for purchase in coin form. After all, you’re not selling any of your gold, and neither are many banks or institutions. Most everyone is buying.

So for those who don’t yet have a gold coin (or you greedy investors who want more than one), this pretty much leaves us with mine production and scrap sources.

CPM forecasts that total new supply in 2009 will be around 122 million ounces. Only a small percentage of this is made into gold coins and bars, but if all of it were, it would amount to less than two one-hundredths of an ounce, or about half a gram, for every man, woman, and child on earth this year. A product of this dimension is about half the size of that small button on your shirt collar.

Since this supply is only available annually, it means 0.018% of the global population – one in every 55 people – could buy a one-ounce gold coin this year. Or, said differently, it would take 55 years before everybody had one, assuming the population never increased (it is) and supply never decreased (it is).

But it’s worse than that. Actual 2009 coin production will be around 5 million ounces (excluding medallions or “rounds”), leaving two one-hundredths of a gram of gold (or 0.3 of a grain) available this year for each of the planet’s inhabitants. This is about half the size of the sesame seed that fell off your hamburger bun at dinner last night. It means that only 0.0007% of earth’s citizens – or one in 1,356 – can buy a one-ounce gold coin this year, and it would take 1,356 years for everyone to get one.

How’s that for a supply squeeze?

But it’s worse than that. Demand continues rising. Gold is more frequently in the news, attracting more customers every day. Hedge funds, which never before considered gold, are now buying physical metal (Greenlight Capital actually sold $500 million of GLD and bought physical gold). Central banks are net buyers of gold for the first time in 22 years. China is running TV ads encouraging its citizens to buy gold and silver. Last month Russia bought more gold than they actually produced. In a recent survey, 20 out of 22 fund managers bought physical gold for their personal investments. In other words, some investors are already scrambling to get it… and in big quantities.

But it’s worse than that. Most of the ramifications of the money printing and dollar debasement haven’t even surfaced yet. How will the general public react when the dollar is crashing and standards of living are threatened? What will they do when milk and gas prices surge to twice what they are now? How will the greater collective respond when they lose faith in government interventions? Where will they invest when they see gold and silver prices screaming upward and don’t want to be left behind?

The panic into gold by the general public hasn’t begun yet. Available supply is scarce and will get smaller. There won’t be enough.

Better get your speck while you can.

Regards,
Jeff Clark
Senior Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report

September 28, 2009

What if Everyone in the World Wanted a One-Ounce Gold Coin? was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.

Before you tell me I’m wrong, let me ask it this way…

• If inflation returns, or even hyperinflation…
• If the economic crisis persists and gets worse…
• If uncertainty and fear continue, and chaos and rioting begin…
• If stock markets languish or suffer another meltdown…
• If the recovery spending of the world’s governments proves futile…
• If government interference in the economy continues to increase…
• If the value of the U.S. dollar takes a major fall…
• If world recovery from the current recession/depression takes years…
• If you’re still wondering whether you have enough “safe” money…

Would you feel you own enough gold?

If all those things come to pass, I suspect many of us, including myself, would wish we had a few extra gold coins or bars stashed away.

So let’s assume you answered “No” to my question and need to add some ounces to your collection… is now a good time to buy?

The Best Time to Buy Gold?

Before glancing at the chart below, if you had to pick the month with the weakest average gold price, which would you select?

In our current 8-year bull market, June has seen the lowest return for gold. In other words, it’s been, on average, one of the best times to buy.

How does this compare to the bull market of the 1970s?

In the last great bull market, summer also was a good time to buy gold (although April was even better.)

What about gold stocks?

Since 2001, July and October have been the weakest months for gold stocks, as measured by the AMEX Gold Bugs Index, and the best times to buy.

However, keep in mind that these are price tendencies and not certainties. There were Junes when gold was up, and some Julys when gold stocks were up. Meaning, avoid using this chart for trading purposes or in anticipation of an immediate gain. Instead, use it to prepare for possible gold price weakness ahead. And if the weakness shows up, treat it as a buying opportunity and add to your holdings to position yourself for the next leg up in the bull market. Consider that this summer could be the last chance to buy gold for three figures.

Don’t lose sight of where we are at this point in the recession – in an intermission in the bad economic news. When it becomes apparent that the good ole days aren’t coming back, sentiment – and markets – could move rapidly. And gold is one of the best forms of capital that can protect you in a financial Armageddon. That gold was up in 2008 is a reminder of its protective power.

How much gold should you have? Continue to accumulate physical gold until you can honestly say you don’t care how many dollars Ben Bernanke prints.

Having physical gold in your possession is always a good idea in times of economic turmoil – there is no “uncertainty hedge” like it. But to actually make money, you should also look at premium gold stocks. Our current favorite has been so consistently successful that we call it “48 Karat Gold.”

Regards,
Jeff Clark

June 24, 2009

When is the Best Time to Buy Gold? was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.