Where is the real bubble? Is it a bubble in commodities? Or a bubble in the people who buy them?

By the charts ye shall know them — bubbles, that is. The lines roll along nicely, calmly, along the bottom of the page, then all of a sudden, the line shoots up. When you see a chart like that, whether it is the price of tulip bulbs or shares in the South Sea Company, you know what will happen next. The line will go down!

What goes up must come down. A bubble is an extraordinary thing. And all extraordinary things tend to become less extraordinary over time. “Regression to the mean,” is what statisticians call it. The “mean” marks the territory that is normal. Whenever anything ventures into abnormal territory, chances are very high that it will soon come back on familiar ground.

Take an extraordinary person, for example. More than likely, his children and grandchildren will be more like everyone else than like him. It must be a terrible burden to be the son of an extraordinary man; people look at you like you were a dot-com stock in ‘99 — they expect something exceptional. Almost inevitably, they are disappointed.

Or take a Great Empire. What is an empire but an extraordinarily successful state? It stands out in history because it has managed to lord over its neighbors. Yet, what empire lasts? None…all regress to become commoners…ordinary nations.

Or take the weather. A rainy spell may last for a long time. But the more days it rains, the more dry days will be needed to bring the rainfall down to “normal” levels.

Regression to the mean is one of the surest bets an investor can make. Let prices go to extraordinary levels and he’s almost guaranteed that they will come back to normal. In markets, the regression to the mean principle is even more certain than it is in nature. Because extraordinary prices set in motion a series of actions and reactions that almost always bring them back in line. Highflying oil prices, for example, touched off a series of derriere-kicking trends and events.

On the supply side, the industry is spending 4 times as much on exploration and development than it did when the century began. The price of drilling equipment rentals has more than tripled. And now, believe it or not, a young man graduating from an Ivy-league college with a degree in petroleum engineering earns more money than a man who goes to Wall Street.

On the demand side too, changes are underway that cut the amount of oil used. The cure for high prices is high prices. Bubbles are self-correcting. The higher prices cause people to look for alternatives — or simply not use so much. US imports of oil went down over the last 12 years. And, for the first time ever, Americans were driving fewer miles.

Another track of the feedback loop is the economy itself. High oil prices work like higher interest rates or higher taxes — removing money from domestic commerce. The effect is to “cool” the economy…chilling demand for energy.

Elsewhere, substitutes for oil are being developed at breakneck speed — including wind, solar, and bio-fuels.

Regression to the mean works. Markets work. Lower energy prices seem a cinch.

But now we introduce an annoying fillip. While the bubble in oil prices was expanding…another, much bigger bubble was shaping up — and hardly anyone noticed.

Where? Just look in the mirror. At our own species. In the many, many thousands of years of our prehistory, we were hardly worth counting. There were tribes of us all over the globe…but they were small…barely holding their own against other species in the competition for food and resources. It took until about 1800 to get the population up to one billion. Worldwide. Then, man was a big winner. Numero Uno of creation. By 1930 another billion had been added. And another billion was added in the next 40 years. That brings us to about 1970, when the earth hosted about 3 billion two-legged yahoos. Since then, the population has more than doubled. The line shot up, in other words.

But we are a proud and egotistical race. As our numbers rise, we think the road will rise to meet us. What a shock it would be to find that the whole species was mean-reverting, just like everything else! What a surprise to find no road at all — that we are running off the edge of a cliff, like lemmings. More below…

Being in the right place at the right time is far more important than brains. Luck provides better investment returns than talent. Too bad. Because our luck seems to be running out.

George Soros has said the great credit expansion that was born with the baby boomers… and has lasted as long as we have… is now over. Not long after came word that the “end of abundance” is here too. That’s what it said on page 9 of the Financial Times. And then, Bo Diddley died. All the palmy trends of the boomer generation seem to be coming to an end.

Naturally, the world’s leaders were worried. They gathered in Rome that same week for the customary monkeyshines. Even Robert Mugabe — who is banned from traveling in Europe — put on a false mustache so he could dine out on the Via Veneto, leaving his lieutenants in Harare to beat and starve Zimbabwean voters. Poor Mugabe. Goebbels would have gotten a warmer reception at a meeting of Jewish orphans.

At 84, Mr. Mugabe is almost living proof of Haeckel’s biogenetic law. It maintains that the history of the individual rehearses the history of the species. In Mugabe’s long life, from prison cell to presidential palace, he is the history of revolution… a Kerensky and a Stalin… the liberation struggle’s saint and its monster, too… all in one. To black Africans he is a big disappointment. To whites he is proof that Ian Smith was right all along. When Ian Smith left the top man role in Rhodesia, the country was the ‘bread basket of Africa’ with a currency as strong as the pound. Now it is a basket case whose peoples’ bones stick out and whose dollars are already as worthless as a campaign promise.

But everything follows the same laws — from embryo to corpse… from boom to bust… from seed to fruit to rot… nothing escapes, neither an individual, an empire, a species, nor a market.

This is not the first time in our lifetimes that the world has seen this kind of show. In the ‘70s, Paul Ehrlich, like Malthus before him, foresaw a crowded, hungry world. In his popular book, “The Population Bomb,” he said hundreds of millions of people would starve to death. This was a world in which England couldn’t even exist; he said it would disappear by the year 2000. He was wrong about that. He was wrong about a lot of things. Julian Simon challenged him, arguing that a free economy always reduces real prices. On September 29th, 1980, the two made a famous bet — on whether the prices for 5 basic metals — chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten — would actually go down, inflation adjusted, in the following ten years — despite population growth. What happened? Simon won. On the 29th of September, 1990, the prices of all 5 were lower. Ehrlich settled up with a check for $576.07.

In theory, Simon will always win a bet like that; competition and technology always force prices down. But Ehrlich wasn’t wrong about everything. And Simon wasn’t right about everything. While one believed the weight of numbers would send the world to Hell… the other had a god-like faith that the market would always save it, guided by an invisible hand to progress and prosperity. But while Simon is right in theory, the invisible hand is not always the gentle paw that he imagines; it does not necessarily call out for more booze just because the crowd gets thirsty. In fact, sometimes it vanishes altogether, allowing a Mugabe to ruin a country… instead of permitting the free market to build it up.

Simon had the good luck to make his bet at the beginning of a major decline in commodity prices. Oil, for example, hit an all-time high over $100 a barrel, in current dollars, in December 1979. Ten years later, it was trading near $30. And by 1998, the price had fallen to $10. Had he made his bet ten years earlier or ten years later, he probably would have lost.

Back to the raw facts facing the Roman holidaymakers: Over their plates of crespelle all fiorentina, delegates will learn that high food prices are putting millions of people on the verge of starvation. Then, as they wash down their peposo with a tide of Barolo or Chianti Classico, they will reflect on how this came to be. The “green revolution,” someone will mention, seems to have run its course. (Out of politeness or imbecility, no one will mention the Fed’s easy money policies.) Ehrlich’s population bomb never exploded, they might come to believe, because irrigation, selective breeding, and the use of petroleum-based products greatly improved farm productivity.

But now, the green revolution has turned brown. It is as mature as the credit cycle… or Robert Mugabe himself. The water is running out. Opposition to bio-engineering is growing. And petro-chemical inputs are both less effective and much more expensive than they used to be. Result? In 1961, crop yields grew by 10% per year. Lately, they’ve increased less than 1% per year.

Meanwhile, in 1970, there was about 1 acre of arable land on the surface of the planet for every pair of feet. But the feet have multiplied — just like Erhlich said they would — from a bit over 3 billion people to more than 6 billion; and now the species is expanding like sub-prime debt. Just look at a chart. Human population looks just like the Nasdaq in ‘99 or oil in ‘08. This bubble-like population explosion, along with urbanization, highways, pollution, desertification and so forth, has cut the amount of farmland per person in half. Meanwhile, the number of people bellying up to the bar continues to grow by 11% per year — more than 10 times faster than crop yields.

Everyone wants a drink; but there’s only so much beer on tap. Who knows? This may be a good time to short the whole damned race.

Regards,
Bill Bonner

November 19, 2009

Editor’s Note: This article originally appeared in The Daily Reckoning as “Boomer Trends Coming to an End.” To view the original article, please click here.

Human Population Bubble and Regression to the Mean was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

And counter to our prediction of an imminent, counter-trend U.S. dollar rally, the dollar is most definitely not surging. Take a look at the chart below. We’ve been writing about the decline of the dollar for nigh on ten years. So we looked at a ten-year chart to tally up the damage. It is considerable.

Dollar Index Threatens New Lows

What’s at stake with the interpretation of this chart? If the dollar rallies on short covering from the dollar carry trade (a BIG if), then other “risk” assets like gold, stocks, and emerging markets would probably sell off.

The chart shows that the index’s 50-week moving average is set to cross below its 200-week moving average. That is mixed news. The first time it happened on this chart was back in early 2003. That was the early days of a long decline in the index. The second time, though the move failed to confirm the “flight to safety” rally of 2008 had staying power in 2009.

Once the fear that gripped markets in 2008 went away, the investment world sold the dollar and started borrowing en masse to buy other, higher-yielding currencies and assets (like the Aussie dollar and resource stocks). That’s where we are now.

But based on the chart, is the next move down in the dollar index a new low, which the crossing of the long-term MA by the short-term MA would suggest? Or is it a false move? Will the dollar quickly and violently rally for some reason (geopolitical perhaps) that currently remains unknown to the human beings of this world?

“It’s an interesting chart,” said our technical analyst Murray Dawes. “But it is not useful for timing your moves out of or into trades related to the dollar’s movement.”

“So you’re saying our chart doesn’t have any useful information from a trader’s perspective?”

“Not really.”

The one piece of important information communicated by our chart is that the dollar’s trend is down. But there IS a catch.

The catch is that when this many people are this uniformly bearish, everyone is probably wrong. Consider this a warning then, that a dollar rally is just the sort of thing that will lead to a correction in the gold price and the stock market. We won’t speculate on the sort of things that could lead to a dollar rally. But surely they’re out there and sooner or later they’ll come.

The other possibility is that the dollar is in its death throes and that this is the big one, in currency terms. That is such a momentous and disastrous event that people consider it both kooky and unlikely, not to mention undesirable to a predictable and comfortable world. But it IS possible.

And do you get the feeling that this kind of manic melt up rally is the sort of irrational frenzy that comes just before everything goes haywire? Haywire is not a precise financial term. So what do we mean?

We meant that the world enjoyed a 20-year economic relationship based on a fundamentally unbalanced global economy. Manufacturing capacity migrated to Asia where wages were lower. For awhile, this was mostly good news in Western countries. Goods got cheaper but jobs didn’t vanish.

Now the situation is not so pleasant. The world is awash in manufacturing over-capacity, especially in China. Wage deflation (in the Western world) looks like a long-term trend, leading to a lower standard of living. This wage deflation is occurring at exactly the same time that Western governments are encountering demographic crises of ageing populations.

We all knew the ageing of the Boomers would put pressure on public finances right around now. But no one reckoned on a global financial crisis further saddling the public balance sheet with debt. And no one reckoned that Western wages and incomes would be falling at just the time people needed them most. And no one reckoned that savers would lose the most from low interest rates on fixed income — even though those low rates are keeping the American housing sector on life support.

It’s a bit of global impasse. America’s needed structural adjustment has come. Households and businesses are reducing debt, trying to live within their means. But the net adjustment to the American balance sheet is not happening because public sector debt is growing so fast.

Meanwhile, the other obvious adjustment is that the Chinese currency ought to be allowed to strengthen. For political and social reasons though, China will not allow this. It means China is actually adding to its industrial over capacity. It is conjuring up the world’s largest ever bubble in fixed asset investment, including commercial real estate.

It is easy to see why China is reluctant to allow a stronger Yuan. Exports account for 39% of Chinese GDP. The Chinese economy, and probably the Communist Party itself, cannot survive on unleashed Chinese domestic demand. They need American markets. But American consumers — in addition to reducing debt — are now realising that the focus on finance over manufacturing from American policy makers has worked out for Washington and Wall Street, but not terribly well for the average American worker.

Where do we go from here? How about the blame game. U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner once blamed the Chinese for being currency manipulators. He back-tracked later. And yesterday, Liu Mingkang, the chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, had a go at America.

“The continuous depreciation in the dollar, and the US government’s indication that, in order to resume growth and maintain public confidence, it basically won’t raise interest rates for the coming 12 to 18 months, has led to massive dollar arbitrage speculation.” He is blaming the U.S. for fuelling a destabilising global bubble.

Of course that bubble is felt most acutely because China pegs its currency to the dollar. China is right to blame the U.S. for manipulating its currency to try and improve its competitive position. And China is right to worry about the value of its dollar-denominated assets in a world of exploding U.S. debt supply.

But China has put itself in this position. And here we are at the end of 2009 with a world still fundamentally un-adjusted to a new, workable currency arrangement. The world remains burdened by trillions in assets purchased with debt. Those assets linger on bank balance sheets, on government life support but fundamentally lifeless at fictitious book value prices.

And meanwhile, the China-US currency arrangement has fuelled a global bubble. The question is how it will end. In the U.S., the housing market looms as the Achilles heel of the economy. It could strike households, banks, and the government again in the next 12 months are more mortgages reset at higher rates (with lower home values).

If the event that pops this bubble comes from America, look for the supply of credit to the emerging world to dry up again. If the bubble pricking comes from China, what then? Well, China does everything big. So a Chinese bust would be world-class.

Regards,
Dan Denning

November 18, 2009

Editor’s Note: This article originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning Australia as “Dollar Rally the Sort of Thing that Will Lead to Correction in Gold Price.” To view the original article, please click here.

Will a Dollar Rally Lead to a Gold Correction? was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

Right. I usually don’t bother. Their complaint, of course, implies that we would do something about overpopulation if only we would recognize it. Which is absurd. What might we do about overpopulation here in the USA? Legislate a one-child policy? Set up an onerous set of bureaucratic protocols forcing citizens to apply for permission to reproduce? Direct the police to shoot all female babies? Use stimulus money to build crematoria outside of Nashville?

It’s certainly true that the planet is suffering from human population overshoot. We’re way beyond “carrying capacity.” Only the remaining supplies of fossil fuels allow us to continue this process, and not for long, anyway. In the meantime, human reproduction rates are also greatly increasing the supply of idiots relative to resources, and that is especially problematic in the USA, where idiots rule the culture and polity.

The cocoon of normality prevents us from appreciating how peculiar and special recent times have been in this country. We suppose, tautologically, that because things have always seemed the way they are, that they always have been the way they seem. The collective human imagination is a treacherous place.

I’m fascinated by the dominion of moron culture in the USA, in everything from the way we inhabit the landscape — the fiasco of suburbia — to the way we feed ourselves — an endless megatonnage of microwaved Velveeta and corn byproducts — along with the popular entertainment offerings of Reality TV, the Nascar ovals, and the gigantic evangelical church shows beloved in the Heartland. To evangelize a bit myself, if such a concept as “an offense in the sight of God” has any meaning, then the way we conduct ourselves in this land is surely the epitome of it — though this is hardly an advertisement for competing religions, who are well-supplied with morons, too.

Moron culture in the USA really got full traction after the Second World War. Our victory over the other industrial powers in that struggle was so total and stupendous that the laboring orders here were raised up to economic levels unknown by any peasantry in human history. People who had been virtual serfs trailing cotton sacks in the sunstroke belt a generation back were suddenly living better than Renaissance dukes, laved in air-conditioning, banqueting on “TV dinners,” motoring on a whim to places that would have taken a three-day mule trek in their granddaddy’s day. Soon, they were buying Buick dealerships and fried chicken franchises and opening banks and building leisure kingdoms of thrill rides and football. It’s hard to overstate the fantastic wealth that a not-very-bright cohort of human beings was able to accumulate in post-war America.

And they were able to express themselves — as the great chronicler of these things, Tom Wolfe, has described so often and well — in exuberant “taste cultures” of material life, of which Las Vegas is probably the final summing-up, and every highway strip, of twenty-thousand strips from Maine to Oregon, is the democratic example. These days, I travel the road up the west shore of Lake George, in Warren County, New York, and see the sad, decomposing relics of that culture and that time in all the “playful” motels and leisure-time attractions, with their cracked plastic signs advertising the very things that they exterminated in the quest for adequate parking — the woodand vistas, the paddling Mohicans, the wolf, the moose, the catamount — and I take a certain serene comfort in the knowledge that it is all over now for this stuff and the class of morons that produced it.

A very close friend of mine calls them “the yeast people.” They were the democratic masses who thrived in the great fermentation vat of the post World War Two economy. They are now meeting the fate that any yeast population faces when the fermentation process is complete. For the moment, they are only ceasing to thrive. They are suffering and worrying horribly from the threat that there might be no further fermentation. The brewers running the vat try to assure them that there’s more sugar left in the mix, and more beer can be made from it, and more yeasts can be brought into this world to enjoy the life of the sweet, moist mash. In fact, one of the brewers did happen to dump about a trillion-and-a-half teaspoons of sugar into the vat during 2009, and that has produced an illusion of further fermentation. But we know all too well that this artificial stimulus has limits.

What will happen to the yeast people of the USA? You can be sure that the outcome will not yield to “policies” and “protocols.” The economy that produced all that amazing wealth is contracting, and pretty rapidly, too, and the numbers among the yeast will naturally follow the downward arc of the story. Entropy is a harsh mistress. In the immediate offing: a contest for the table scraps of the 20th century. We’ve barely seen the beginning of this, just a little peevishness embodied by yeast shaman figures. As hardships mount and hardened emotions rise, we’ll see “the usual suspects” come into play: starvation, disease, violence. We may still be driving around in Ford F-150s, but the Pale Rider is just over the horizon beating a path to our parking-lot-of-the-soul.

It’s a sad and tragic process and, all lame metaphors aside, there are real human feelings at stake in our prospects for loss of every kind, but especially in the fate of people we love. The human race has known catastrophe before and come through it. There’s some credible opinion that “this time it’s different” but who really knows? We have our 2012 apocalypse movies. The people of the 14th century, savaged by the Black Death, had their woodcuts of dancing skeletons. Feudalism was wiped out in that earlier calamity but, whaddaya know, less than a century after that the Renaissance emerged in a wholly new culture of cities. Maybe we will emerge from our culture of free parking to a new society of living, by necessity, much more lightly on the planet and for a long time, perhaps long enough to allow the terrain to recover from all the free parking.

Regards,
James Howard Kunstler

November 17, 2009

Overpopulation in the USA and the Fate of the Yeast People was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

There are going to be a lot of disappointed people out there who will be suffering terrible losses and real pain in daily life. Societies don’t do well when the public falls into the broad despair that is the opposite of hope. That’s when the long knives and the tribal animosities come out and things get smashed.

Within the context of conventional party politics – the kind that has been baseline “normal” in the USA for a long time – we see this playing out in two factions that are increasingly out-of-touch with reality.  The Obama government has made itself hostage to a toxic form of pretense and lying. In order to sustain the wish for “hope” – if not hope itself – the President and his White House advisors along with his cabinet appointments, are pretending that the historical forces of compressive contraction are not underway.  They’re flat-out lying about the employment figures issued in the government’s name. They’re willfully ignoring the comprehensive bankruptcy gripping government at all levels. They refuse to bring the law to bear against “the malefactors of great wealth.” They appear to not understand the epochal energy scarcity problem the whole world faces, or its implications for industrial economies. Most of all, they persist in promoting the lie that this economy can return to the prior state of reckless debt accumulation (a.k.a “consumerism”) that has made us so ridiculous and unhealthy.

The trouble with self-delusion, either in a person or a society, is that reality doesn’t care what anybody believes, or what story they put out.  Reality doesn’t “spin.” Reality does not have a self-image problem.  Reality does not yield its workings to self-esteem management. These days, Americans don’t like reality very much because it won’t let them push it around. Reality is an implacable force and the only question for human beings in the face of it is: what will you do?  In other words, it’s not really possible to manage reality, but you can certainly choose to manage your affairs within reality.  We won’t do that because it’s too difficult. This harsh situation leaves the public increasingly with little more than bad feelings of discouragement and persecution

Reality unfolds emergently, and this ought to interest us.  For instance, I have maintained for many years that we are approaching the twilight of the automobile age – and the implications of this for daily life in the USA are pretty large. For a long time, I had assumed that this change of circumstances would proceed from our problems with the oil supply.  But reality is sly.  It has thrown two new plot twists into the story lately. America’s romance with cars may not founder just on the fuel supply question.  It now appears that our problems with capital are so severe that far fewer people will be able to borrow money from banks to buy cars at the rate, and in the way, that the system has been organized to depend on.  Our problems with capital are also depriving us of the ability to pay to fix the hypercomplex system of county roads, interstate highways, and even city streets that make motoring possible. What will we do?

For now, a cashless government gives out cash-for-clunkers, which is basically a self-esteem building program designed to make the government feel better about itself because it is ostensibly taking 11-miles-per-gallon cars off the road and replacing them with 27-miles-per-gallon cars, thus forestalling scary problems with climate change. It’s dumb of course, but the failure of leadership is comprehensive. Even the elite environmentalists at the Aspen Institute are preoccupied with finding new “green” ways to keep all the cars running.  They put zero effort into the idea of walkable communities, or restoring the railroad system, which will be the reality-based remedies for the car-dependency problem.

The extreme right is, if anything, even more childishly delusional. For them it comes down to “drill, baby, drill.”  They know nothing about the geology of oil – they don’t even believe that the earth is more than six-thousand years old, meaning they don’t believe in geology, period – but they are inflamed with the faith of eight-year-old children that we must have a lot more oil in the ground because this is America and God loves us more than people in other parts of the planet so it must be there. As their disappointment mounts, their childish ideas will turn cruel and sadistic. They’ll seek to punish anybody who believes that the earth is more than six thousand years old. The catch is, if they get into power in the election cycles ahead, they’ll be impotent and ineffectual even at persecuting their enemies.

In the meantime, American life will just wind down, no matter what we believe.  It won’t wind down to a complete stop.  Its near-term destination is to lower levels of complexity and scale than what we’ve been used to for a long time.  People will be able to drive fewer cars fewer miles.  The roads will get worse.  They’ll be worse in some places than others. There will be fewer jobs to go to and fewer things sold. People who live in communities scaled to the energy and capital realities of the years ahead are liable to be more comfortable. We’re surely going to have trouble with money. Households will drown in debt and lose all their savings.  Money could be scarce or worthless. Credit will be scarcer.

Both factions of American political life indulge in the fiction of control. History is reality’s big brother.  It is taking us someplace that we don’t want to go, so it will probably have to drag us there kicking and screaming. For starters, both reality and history will probably take us out to some woodshed of the national soul and beat the crap out of us.  That could be a salutary thing, since the crap consists of all the lies we tell ourselves. Once we’re rid of all that, we may rediscover a few things left inside our collective identity that are worth regarding with real self-respect.

Regards,
James Howard Kunstler

November 11, 2009

Hypercomplex Systems Will Fail Due to Scarcity of Energy and Credit was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

Here’s why healthcare (a.k.a. sick-care) costs cannot be reduced; the entire system is based on vast pools of “free money.” The corporate-America or union/government employee who goes to the doctor pays a few dollars for a visit and drugs; the “real cost” is of no concern. Ditto the “real costs” charged to Medicare and Medicaid.

The link between the “consumer” of healthcare and the provider has been broken for decades. There is no “free market” in healthcare–there isn’t any market at all. We live in a Kafka-esque nightmare system in which “some are more equal than others” and hundreds of thousands of dollars are lavished on worthless tests, procedures and medications for two reasons:

1.    Because there’s “free money” to pay the bills

2.    So-called “defensive medicine” in which worthless tests are administered to stave off random (sometimes valid, sometimes nuisance) malpractice lawsuits.

There is a solution so simple and so radical that it is “impossible” (and of course you’re reading it here): shut down insurance and all government entitlements, and return to the “golden era” of the 1950s when everyone paid cash for healthcare. Here are the costs of childbirth as of 1952 at one of the finest hospitals on the West Coast, The Santa Monica Hospital:

And here are the obstetrical rates:

Having a baby cost $30, which is today’s dollars is $244. A private deluxe room cost $23 or $187 in today’s dollars. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s inflation calculator, $1 in 1952 is $8.14 in 2009 dollars.

What does it cost to have a baby now? $10,000? Or is it $25,000? Who even knows?

I know all the reasons why “costs had to skyrocket”: we’re getting so much better care now, right? Actually, as measured by death rates and any other metric you want to select, there is simply no way to justify a 40-fold increase (or is it 100-fold?) in medical care costs. The returns on all the “miracles of modern medicine” are in fact exceedingly marginal– but nobody wants to talk about that.

In 1952, if something awful happened and a patient died, here was the response: “We’re very sorry.” Families weren’t outraged; they expected people to die and interventions were not expected to be miraculous every single time. Doctor Kildaire and all his imitators on TV had not brainwashed the public into reckoning that if someone died, a mistake had been made. They also hadn’t been brainwashed by the mental disorder known as “the American Legal System” into thinking that in every possible circumstance in life, there is liability, and the only question is where to pin it for the big bucks jackpot.

Stories about people suing doctors and hospitals for 5 times the value of a house ($1 million in today’s money would have been $120,000 in 1952, when you could buy a nice house for $20,000) simply did not exist in the 1950s. The cultural mindset that someone somewhere must be at fault and it’s a “right” to go after them did not exist. Since insurance was limited, there was no “free money jackpot” to go after, either.

I know you’re probably outraged at the suggestion that “modern safety nets” of insurance and entitlements are the cause of our ills, but follow this idea through:

With no insurance or government program to bill vast sums, then every clinic, doctor and hospital in the U.S. would instantly go broke. Someone would pick up the pieces for $1 or whatever the auction price happened to be and start charging people $50 for a visit to the doctor–not a “co-pay” which was accompanied by a bill for $500 or $1,500 or $15,000 to an insurance company or the government, but $50 cash–that would be the total cost. People might decide they did not need to see the doctor every time they got the sniffles. They might ask the doctor if an MRI was really going to help diagnose their problem or if it was gilding the lily.

As for malpractice, maybe the clinics/hospitals would be non-profits. Go ahead and sue the bejabbers out of them–they have no insurance and no cash. Go ahead and win a huge settlement: you’ll never collect because there’s simply no money. The non-profit folds and another one buys the clinic for $1. With no giant pot of “free money” to pillage, the pillaging goes away. Hospitals which sought stupendous profits would presumably charge more, and hence would have fewer customers. It would be up to the consumer.

The solution to malpractice is information, not lawsuits. Based on my conversations with the M.D.’s who frequent this site, here are some simple policy/regulatory steps which would have very low end costs:

1.    License all M.D.’s nationally so they don’t need to go through the absurd waste of time and money being licensed in multiple states.

2.     Make all information on clinics, hositals, surgeries, etc. public on the Web. Those doctors willing to take on the very ill will have more patients die than those who avoid the risky cases; it will be up to consumers to sort out the track record of the people who they choose to hire to attend to their health.

Something magical would happen to prices: they would drop to what people could afford to pay cash. Yes, those wonderful folks in the pharmaceutical industry could list their drugs for $10,000 a dose, but few would be buyers. Just as in other countries with no “free money” to tap, the price of that drug would quickly drop to $50. That, or the pharmaceutical companies can go bankrupt and let others fill the vacuum.

What would happen is simple: marginal care would vanish because few would be willing to pay for it. The cost of an MRI in China is a tiny percentage of the cost of an MRI in the U.S., and the machine and training of the technicians is the same; so why does it cost 25 times more for an MRI here? Because there’s a pot of “free money” available to tap.

If the entire system collapsed and everyone paid cash, the cost of an MRI would be $100 or so, regardless of any other conditions. Or, the owners of the MRI machines could declare bankruptcy, sell the machines at auction and let someone else provide the service to those who decided it was worth the expense.

But what about the “poor people” who can’t afford medical care now? Well right now they have to stand in line at emergency rooms–the most wasteful, inefficient system possible. Even “poor people” can afford a few dollars–there’s endless excuses provided yet how many “poor people” have cell phones, eat costly fast food, do costly illegal drugs, etc. etc. Everybody has choices; we’re not all deranged, and for those who are deranged, then clearly the government will have a role in their care when it exceeds the capacity of their family or if they have no family.

Everybody’s got an excuse in our current system, and perhaps that’s why it is morally and financially bankrupt. The U.S. (and certainly not Santa Monica) was not a Third World nation in 1952; people did not feel their healthcare was deficient or poor. There was simply no money to pursue marginal returns except perhaps for a few millionaires seeking exotic treatments. Fine, it’s their money; most died right along with the rest of us and at about the same lifespan.

As for “overall health” of the populace: what with the “diabesity” epidemic out of control due entirely to lifestyle changes, it’s hard to say we’ve gotten 50 times healthier as a result of our healthcare costs rising 50-fold.

When it comes right down to it, the current system is based on this premise: the average American is too dumb to figure out healthcare for themselves and so we need a gigantic structure of “experts” to figure out what should be done and what it should cost. It’s not even really “insurance” because everyone gets old, ill and then dies.

This has resulted in the most brutally inefficient and even cruel system possible, one in which the very elderly are milked for hundreds of thousands of dollars of “healthcare” in the last days or weeks of their lives while tens of millions get no care at all except at the emergency room. Since no one takes responsibility for their own health or healthcare costs, then people take poor care of themselves and thus many of our ills are self-inflicted. People save little to nothing for emergencies because they’ve learned to expect someone, somewhere, to pay for their healthcare. (It’s a “right.” Really? At whose expense? The Chinese who buy our debt?)

I know, I know–going to a market/cash system is “impossible.” But the irony is that’s where we’ll be in a few years, regardless of what anyone thinks or wants: “healthcare” in its present incarnation will bankrupt the nation just as surely as the sun rises.

Regards,
Charles Hugh Smith

August 5, 2009

Healthcare Solution: Go Back to Cash was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

The noodle company got itself into some trouble. To simplify the story greatly, it basically lost a lot of money using derivatives to bet on dollar-rupiah movements. The loss suffered was, in fact, more than the capital of the company itself. At one point, Das writes: “What this had to do with producing noodles was a mystery.”

Exactly!

Unfortunately, this kind of story riddles the markets today like worms in an otherwise worthy cut of swordfish. There are so many of these incidences and they are ruining companies and investors across the world. It takes a nasty crisis like the one we are in to expose all these things. And the rot is extensive.

I want to share with you three little-reported events and one historical example that all show how pervasive this mindless risk-taking became during the last few years. They would be almost comical if they weren’t true.

First, consider the sad example of several Mexican and South American companies that made, large, company-jeopardizing currency bets. For example, Mexico’s third largest retailer, Controladora Commercial Mexicana (COMERCIUBC: MXK), recently filed for bankruptcy after losing so much money speculating in the forex markets. What does currency speculating have to do with selling tortillas, milk and eggs? Nothing. That’s the point.

Similarly, Sadia (SDA: NYSE), a poultry producer; Cemex (CEMEXCPO: MXK), a cement outfit; and Gruma in tortillas – all lost huge amounts of money on currency bets. Aracruz Cellulose (ARA: NYSE), the much admired pulp giant of Brazil, owes more than $2 billion to its banks for making bets on currencies that went sour. What was once a great franchise has been brought to its knees. It will take years to pay that back and debt payments now make up 40% of its pre-tax earnings.

The second example of mindless risk-taking is the story of so-called “portable alpha.” Apparently, the brain trusts that run pension funds thought this strategy sounded like a good idea. What is it? I still don’t understand it fully. But it basically amounts to a leveraged bet on the stock market. If you lose, you lose big as many pension funds are finding out. So now the Pennsylvania state employees’ pension fund, for instance, will have to take a multi-billion bath on this exotic investment strategy.

As the Wall Street Journal reports: “The stock-market downturn could force the Pennsylvania state employees’ pension fund to make cash payments of $2.5 billion or more to trading partners on Wall Street.” The fund has only $27 billion in total. At least, it had $27 billion.

Several other funds have reported billion dollar losses on portable alpha strategies. I can only imagine how many more institutional investors are in the same boat. The people running these things and advising these people should all find other work.

The third example is so-called “accumulators,” which is another kind of tactic for placing highly leveraged bet on stocks, currencies or commodities. I don’t want to get into the details. It’s so complicated; it would take me a page to explain it. Just know that, like “portable alpha” if you are wrong, you lose big.

And yet all kinds of wealthy individuals and businesses have gotten wrapped up in these things. Accumulator losses are showing up in some unlikely places. For instance, VeraSun Energy Corp. (VSUNQ: OTC), which makes ethanol, filed for bankruptcy in part because of big losses on accumulators tied to the price of corn. Citi Pacific (CIY: ASX), a Chinese conglomerate, lost $2 billion on accumulator contracts linked to currencies.

Billions and billions of dollars lost on nonsense. There was no reason for anybody to buy these things – especially when they clearly did not understand the risks involved. The losses are so bad in Hong Kong that Any Xie, an independent economist, said recently that “Accumulators are ruining Hong Kong.”

I’ll offer one other example of this kind of recklessness that is both a historical and contemporary study: Goldman Sachs.

I just recently finished perusing Charles Ellis’ new history The Partnership: The Making of Goldman Sachs. I was particularly interested in the early history of Goldman Sachs. I thought I would come away thinking how Goldman Sachs used to be a simpler business. I thought Goldman’s history would show how it took prudent risks with adequate equity backing those risks. My conclusion would then be that the current crop of leaders at Goldman were just reckless and ruined a franchise that had been around since the 1880s.

In fact, that’s not what I learned at all. From Goldman’s earliest days as a commercial paper specialist it operated with minimal capital. All through its history, it has been a business that took big risks and often took huge losses. That Goldman even exists at all today is something of a financial miracle.

In reading this history, I was struck by how the company found itself in the soup again and again and again. In the 1920s, one of the biggest speculative busts was in investment trusts in which a small amount of capital supported a spider’s web of investments in other companies. Guess who had the biggest blow-up of them all?

Goldman was big in this through a subsidiary called Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation, which basically lost everything for its investors. Ellis writes:

“While all the investment trusts suffered, Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation – because it was so large and so highly leveraged…became one of the largest, swiftest, and most complete investment disasters of the twentieth century.”

The loss to Goldman Sachs itself was enormous. It basically wiped out thirty years of profits and eliminated the “fruits of all the labors of a generation.”

Fast forward to 1970 and the biggest bankruptcy in the country at that time. You find Goldman was waist-deep in it. Penn Central at the time of its bankruptcy in 1970 was the eighth largest corporation in the country. Again, Ellis writes: “the loss it [Penn Central] threatened to impose on Goldman Sachs was not only larger than any prior loss, it was larger than Goldman Sachs.”

And so it is today, that the company once again finds itself in the middle of yet another big crisis that threatens its very existence. I don’t know about you, but I have to wonder about all the brains at Goldman Sachs and all the people who say what a great firm it is. Seems to me, for such a bunch of supposed geniuses, they routinely shoot themselves in the foot, time and time again. You don’t find Berkshire Hathaway fighting for its life every decade.

All of these anecdotes scream at me to avoid the complex and the leveraged, which often means a potential for a mega-loss if you’re wrong. The problem is these kinds of bets infect many companies, as I’ve shown, even when they have nothing to do with the core business. Even otherwise seemingly simple enterprises, like making tortillas or producing chicken, have been hurt.

The advice I have is not novel, but bears repeating since so many seem to forget it. Stay away from anything you don’t understand. (All those folks who lost money with Madoff in his $50 billion Ponzi scheme would’ve saved themselves a lot of money just with this single insight.) And avoid excessive leverage. It’s one thing to lose money. It’s another thing to lose it taking on stupid and pointless risks.

Regards,
Chris Mayer

January 8, 2009

Mindless Risk Taking was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

The broad American public voted for “change” but they thought that meant a “changing of the guard.” Out with the feckless Bush; in with the charismatic Obama… and may this American life now continue just as it ever was. The change actually coming will be much more than they bargained for, namely our transition from a wealthy society to a hardship society. The sharp break is a product of our years-long failure to reckon with the energy realities of our time. We’re still confused about that, but it’s hard, otherwise, to ignore the massive disappearance of capital, asset values, livelihoods, domiciles, comforts, and necessities.

The price of oil is suddenly down to an astounding $40-odd per barrel. Those of us studying the Peak Oil story have said that the “bumpy plateau” years of peak production would be expressed in tremendous price volatility, and for exactly the reasons now evident — that the high-price phase would mangle advanced economies, that they would fall back in paralysis, then respond anew to oil price collapses by straggling up again, only to be crushed again when a resumption in demand for oil drove the price back up.

What was not so generally anticipated was the wholesale destruction of global finance in the first phase of this period. This has now occurred so comprehensively that we know the banking business will never be the same again. It has also accelerated other plot-lines in the story. One affects the global oil industry itself: a lack of capital to go forward with the new oil projects that were designed to mitigate the present depletions in old oil fields. The result of this quandary is as likely to be oil shortages in 2009 as much as an extremely sharp snap-back in oil prices. The oil markets themselves are changing in the face of financial disruption. Between pirates lurking off the Horn of Africa, and a shortage in letters-of-credit that enable the shipping of anything for delivery between nations, the allocation system is impaired. This affects poorer nations the most, and when they don’t get their oil shipments, conditions in these nations get worse. People lose incomes. Ethnic strife ramps up. All this will make it harder to move oil from the places where it is produced to the importing countries.

So much artificially-generated pixel “money” is being pumped into the system now that it will eventually overtake the quantity of capital currently vanishing in the form of exposed securities swindles, unwinding bad debt, and imploded worthless counter-party contracts. The pixel money will express itself as super or hyper inflation, lagging from 6 to 18 months from the time it was actually introduced in the form of bailouts. For the moment, money is moving into the presumed safety of US Treasury paper. Personally, the safety of this is not something I would presume. But in the current deflationary stage its hard to find any other place to park cash, and when asset values are crashing everywhere, cash is king. Gold is physically unavailable in the form that non-millionaires usually buy it in, ounce and half-ounce coins.

President-elect Obama has announced his intention to kick off a massive “stimulation” program when he hits the White House “running” in January. Early indications are that it will be directed at things like highway repair. If so, we will be investing long-term in infrastructure that we probably won’t be using the same way in ten years. But I doubt there is any way around it. The American public can’t conceive of living any other way except in a car-centered society. Anyway, some parts of our highway-bridge-and-tunnel system are already so decrepit that they pose a menace right now, and the clamor to direct “stimulation” there is already very strong — backed by all the fraternities of engineers.

Stimulus aimed at perpetuating mass motoring will be a tragic waste of our dwindling resources. We’d be better off aiming it at fixing the railroads (especially electrifying them), refitting our harbors with piers and warehouses in preparation to move more stuff by boats, and in repairing the electric grid. Unfortunately, our tendency will be to try to rescue the totemic touchstones of everyday life, things familiar and comfortable, regardless of whether they have a future or not.

The ominous forces gathering out there will defeat these efforts and everyday life will reorganize itself some other way consistent with the single greatest trend: the force of contraction. Every sign we see is pointing in that direction, from the inability of the earth’s ecology to support more human beings, to the dwindling of mineral and energy resources, to the destruction of farmland, to mischief in the climate. We just don’t know how badly things will fall apart in the meantime, or how kind (or cruelly) people will act in the process.

Mr. Obama would be most successful if he could persuade the public how much more severe the required changes are than they currently realize, and inspire them to get with program of retrofitting American life to comply with these realities.

Regards,
Jim Kunstler
www.kunstler.com

Change We’ll Get: Oil, Money and Strife was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

The recent jobs report is letting us know that the “Great Receding” is continuing.  The winds of change are a-blowin’.  The question remains, however, “What kind of ‘repairs’ will be made, and how will the market respond?”

We are now approaching 2 million jobs lost in the US.  The most in over 25 years.  The number came in at -533K, meaning 25% of all jobs lost were in the last month alone.  An interesting thing about receding tides and receding economies – as long as the winds keep blowing – they keep receding.  But even after the winds stop, things don’t return to normal right away.

It appears now that we are in for yet a deeper and longer recession than previously thought.  Each week that passes, more and more people say that exact phrase.  But let’s stop for a minute and review what we have at hand.

-A negative GDP

-A 50% cut in the Equity Market

-A new weekly high in the dollar

-2nd Highest Monthly Job loss in History

-Moving toward Highest Annual Job Loss in History

-A President-Elect who responds by saying that this catastrophe points out the need for more stimulus, job creation, and provides an opportunity to “transform the economy”. (translated, “God save us all…”)

The government has done such a good job with everything else they’ve touched, we just can’t wait to see what happens when they get their socialist mitts around the throat of a gasping economy.

While I hate to see such things as a “government transformed economy”, my first concern here is what will the market’s reaction be?  As long as the FX remains unfettered, we have the opportunity to be free marketeers.
When we look at the equity indexes we see that they have not hit a new low since around the 3rd week of November.  They are up 7 of the last 9 sessions, 6 of which are at or near their session highs.  A market bottom in place?  Or forming?  Let’s hold our horses.  If we compare this to a few elements of the Great Depression, some stark contrasts stand out.  Now I was not alive during that dour period of American History, so like you, I am dependant on the written accounts to guide me.  Unemployment was accounted as high as 25%.  Currently, it is 6.7%.  With a present loss of 1.9 million jobs, that would equal a total loss of nearly 6 million jobs if we were to reach a 25% unemployment rate.  So interims of sheer unemployment, we have only gone 1/3 of the way.

The next question is this. How about other fundamentals?  Are they likely to drive us further into higher unemployment?  Here’s one consideration.  As many seem to think it was WWII that got us from the Great Depression, we have to realize that the US government had at its disposal a much larger arsenal of economic weapons than it does now.  Essentially, as the gold standard was “relaxed”, government inflation could now assume a pedal to the metal position.  Government jobs were created at breakneck speed during the depression to get people back to work, with success based on this simple equation: More workers = more revenue.  The plan of course, was that what the workers produced would more than offset the cost of job creation and maintenance.  Wow! And the government could actually make a profit by employing this plan.  Holy Moses!  The government produce a profit?  What a wonderful idea!

Ok, enough of the sarcasm.  The point is, it didn’t work.  Were it not for massive inflation over the last nearly 80 years since then, we would not have the current illusion of wealth.  And this brings us to the next problem:  The illusion of wealth.  For most people wealth itself is “relative”.  Men always measure their wealth by what other men have.  We may never reach the levels of a Bill Gates or Warren Buffet…but most of us are not troubled by that.  We just want to know, that we have enough to care for ourselves by whatever standards we deem as being wealthy.  We also want to have more than our neighbors and co-workers.  Very few of us have a life goal of being the richest person in the world.  So our view of wealth is relative.  In the end, it isn’t really the money we want, or the house or boats or whatever.  We want the joy that such things bring us.  We want the “peace” that they offer us, that everything is going to be OK.  In the end, what we want from our wealth is the ability to enjoy our lives.  Philosophers and theologians have searched for millenia for the meaning of life.  King Solomon puts it this way.  “There is nothing better for a man, than that he should eat and drink and that he should make his soul enjoy good in his labor.  This I saw also was from the hand of God”.

I say all that to say this.  In America, the poorest among us are richer than 99% of all those who have ever lived in the history of mankind.  Yet we are still inclined to call them poor.  In contrast, we consider ourselves rich.  Not by just what we own, but because we have knowledge to increase our wealth.  We have our health.  We have a long life expectancy.  And up until recently, we had a better expectation for our children than we had for ourselves.  Because wealth is not only relational, it is generational.  We want to leave something to our children.  Something better than what we had.  It is becoming more and more apparent that this will not happen.

As the Fixer-Uppers of our time continue to manipulate and convolute the economies of the world, they cannot make it better unless they simply leave it alone.  But as that is not going to happen, we may have a lot of unfolding yet to do in this unwinding of mistakes.  Because the truth of the matter is, the markets are just like a bungee cord.  You can only stretch it so far before it shoots you in the opposite direction and there is nothing you can do. The markets will correct their inefficiencies, and all the manipulation in the world can’t stop it.  Just like the fool who petitioned congress to repeal the Law of Supply and Demand, only to find out that it is a law established by God, so will the modern tinkerers find that their “solutions” are ridiculous.

For us, we will continue to trade our trend.  Next week will bring us more opportunities.  So enjoy the weekend.

Until next time,
Bill Jenkins

December 10, 2008

Government Tries to Outrun Recession… Again was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

Enough about animals; let’s examine how America has, and is being killed.  In the main by two methods:  (1) Currency destruction, and (2) Weakening the populace.  The currency destruction is inseparably linked to the second method.  Before FDR, people used to plan for their retirement, save in sound dollars, own a home, or in a hundred ways, plan for old age.  Americans were strong, intelligent, hard working, and knew that if they didn’t plan for retirement and old age, they might die early.  Did it work?  Of course!  Naturally, the weak and stupid didn’t plan for their old age, and guess what?  They died early, which is as it should have been.  Just like stupid animals, they couldn’t survive if they didn’t act and plan properly.  An animal has to find a place to live, build a nest, store food, and the like.  People had to pay their debts, pay off their home, save money, and PLAN.  If they did, all was OK.  If they didn’t, they died early.  The human strain was kept strong by this method, just like in the animal kingdom.

What stopped this necessity to plan and save?  Social Security, for one.  Government would take care of the oldsters, and remove their duty and necessity to care and plan for themselves.  Government would force a deduction from their paychecks, put it away for them, and then when they retired, all would be well.  This, of course, weakened the populace.  They no longer had to plan, save, sacrifice, and work hard for their old age.  The weak no longer failed and died.  They lived, and continued to live, when they should have, by all logical means, been dead and buried.  By staying alive, they became and become a burden on the rest of the populace and families.  Does this sound coarse, mean, crude, and ungodly?  Maybe it does to you, but it is so logical.  The Social Security scheme, like all other government “plans” and bureaucracies, have ruined the value of the dollar.  Forced, compulsory, Social Security, like all other government entitlements, has become a disaster.  There are far more retirees than workers, and the original 1% deduction, now is close to 20%, still not enough, thereby weakening all of us.  As if that weren’t bad enough, government continues to lie about inflation, which it causes, so the welfare checks are far less than they should be; thereby screwing the supposedly well cared for recipients.  No one can live on a Social Security check today, even though we have all been forced to pay through our noses to support it.  The entire American citizenry has been made weaker, made unable to care for itself, and at the same time been stolen from in a wholesale manner.  Government then, is killing its citizens and itself at the same time.

Originally, there were no public schools.  Everyone taught their kids at home.  Literally, or in a private or religious school. Caring, smart parents taught them well, and the kids succeeded. America, a hundred years ago was far more educated and cultured than now.  By knowledge and skills of reading, math and other subjects, the eighth grader of a hundred years ago compares equally with today’s college student or maybe even graduate. This was without any public schools.  The stupid parents who didn’t teach or show caring, demonstrated it in their kids who failed in life, probably died early, and didn’t become a burden on the rest of society.  Next, there were thousands of one-room schoolhouses, paid for by the local populace, and these schools did very well, but it was the beginning of large public schools, which seem to be not much more than baby sitters.  Home schooling has once again become the smart thing to do by caring parents, because they realize that government schools are a disaster, like every other government scheme and “program.”  Public schools now consume three quarters of all property taxes, and do a lousy, expensive job.  Catholic parents usually send their kids to parochial schools which are in no way “public” and not paid for by taxpayers.  Wealthy parents may have sent, and still do, send their kids to private schools, not paid for by taxes, and they always did and still do a fine job.

Government schools had to fail, like all “programs” fail, because of inefficiency and cost.  The failure and cost of public schools is partially responsible for populating the streets of America with thugs, criminals, druggies, shoplifters, burglars, rapists, and all sorts of riff-raff, which should be dead, and maybe not have been born in the first place, probably. Trash, uneducated, uncaring people seem to multiply at enormous rates and cause a lot of crime, don’t they?  Cruel, ungodly, and coarse?  Maybe, but picture America if there had never been a public school, and every child had been home-schooled or sent to a private school, paid for by its parents, with little or no property taxes, and no terrible, microscopic educating in failing public schools.  There would be thousands and thousands of private schools operating for profit, and competing with each other for achievement, being used by parents who chose not to home-school.  No teachers unions and inept teachers.  There couldn’t be because competition in the market wouldn’t allow for it.  There would be schools specializing in cooking, engineering, language, math, or whatever the parents chose for their kids.  There would be an abundance of religious schools, paid for by churches and parents of pupils, but no drain on taxpayers of any kind, and superb education.

The public school systems, even in small towns like the one I live in, have proved to be expensive disasters.  Homeowners are being taxed severely to pay for these incompetent, inefficient, poorly educating, sinkholes of fading dollars.  So ingrained have public schools and Social Security become in the American mind, that most will disagree with my thesis.  They will moan and groan about how, “We have to care for old people and educate the children,” even though facts and logic prove that the opposite has happened, and cost a fortune in dollars and crime.  America has inflicted wounds on itself over the last hundred years, because the general public opinion is that, “People need to be helped and taught,” regardless of the cost or lack of success at either.  Perhaps 1% of America will agree with me on this first part, because they are so mind-numbed by government propaganda, the media, and the garbage they themselves have learned in classrooms of public schools.  Government and “programs” always come out ahead, and are painted as glorious and wonderful by the media, schools, and bureaucrats.  They are the opposite, and are partly responsible for the killing of America.  Once something gets started, regardless of the total illogic of it, such as public schools and Social Security, there is a zero chance of obliterating it, because so many have become dependent, and thereby weak.  How can a nation survive if it is weak?

Regards,
Don Stott
www.ColoradoGold.com

December 08, 2008

Public Schools and Social Security: Killing America, Part I was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

What do you make of this latest triage of the broken financial system? It keeps things ticking over. But how do you fix a nation that has too much debt by adding more debt? The U.S. government, through its various agency paramedics, is injecting money and buying equity all over the economic shop. But it’s not cheap.

Bloomberg tallied up the various commitments, loans, and guarantees made on behalf of the U.S. taxpayer by various Federal agencies and non-elected officials. It was not a small number. It came to U.S. $7.76 trillion, a vaguely patriotic sum, echoing the year the Declaration of Independence was proclaimed in 1776.

You can read the Bloomberg article as an explication of dependence. Or better yet, a pledge of eternal subservience to the power of debt. The $7 trillion plus figure is nearly half of annual U.S. GDP. Just under half of it — $3.18 trillion — is money tapped by financial firms through various auction facilities. It goes to rebuild balance sheets, rather than building factories, bridges, or new sources of power.

The Federal Reserve is the biggest instrument of this ramp up in commitments. The Fed has pledged $4.74 trillion on behalf of Americans. That’s 61% of the total amount, and $24,000 for every man, woman, and child in America (born free, but now everywhere in debt). More on this in a moment.

Here in Australia, local shares should get a boost from rising commodity prices (provided no more margin loans get called on insiders and short sellers cover). Oil was up $4.50 to $54.43 for a 9% gain on the day. Gold shot up nearly $30 to $821.90 for almost a four percent gain. Copper was up 6%, nickel 7%, zinc 6.4%, and tin 11.3%. And what, pray tell, may have led to that move?

Chinese monthly refined copper imports were up 15% in October, an eight month high. But what China gives it may also take a way. Cochilco, China’s state-run copper outfit, cut is forecast for copper prices in 2009. Where does that leave us with the base metals and with base metal shares? We asked Diggers and Drillers editor Al Robinson.

“China’s resurgent demand for raw materials is already surprising the market,” he wrote to us via e-mail from 2 metres away. “It reverted to ‘net importer’ status in all base metals for October, according to the London Metal Exchange (LME). China already needs more resources than it can get its hands on.”

“It’s buying more rock than it’s selling, in other words. That’s great news for the Australian resource sector in 2009.

“But this story goes further,” he adds. “China isn’t experiencing some sort of meek comeback, following the Olympic slowdown. It actually imported enough copper in October to offset the rest of the LME’s inventory rise. The ‘rest of the world’ may not be setting commodity demand ablaze. But China is already starting to fill in the gaps created by Western recession — on its own.”

While China fills the gaps, you may also start to see some short covering from traders who went short the base metals. That short covering could lead to big one day moves in the shares (which are appallingly over-sold). But it may not quite mark the bottom in metals prices. That’s going to be a function of supply and demand (with supply tightening as projects are shelved and demand idling).

The other thing to look for is bargain hunting. Investors and fund managers who liquidated long positions in the resource sector earlier this year to raise cash may begin nibbling if they find the right share at the right price. Take China for example.

Recently the Australian reported that “Rio may sell stakes to china to reduce debt.” Rio’s Chairman Paul Skinner was in Melbourne to discuss, among other things, the possibility of Rio selling assets or an equity stake to China Inc. in order to help pay off some of Rio’s U.S. $9 billion in debt that matures in 2009. Maybe Rio should first ask the Fed before giving up equity to China. Bernanke can be pretty accommodating, we hear.

And now it is time to bring that U.S. $7.76 trillion back into the picture and put it in the context of Australian resource equities. The Citigroup bailout deal prompted a rally in stocks and a rise in U.S. bond yields on Monday. The yield on two-year U.S. notes rose as the government auctioned another U.S. $36 billion of them into the market.

It’s hard to believe the Citigroup deal unleashed a lot of pent up bullishness on U.S. financial stocks. It’s easier to believe that the ever-increasing supply of U.S. government bonds is prompting investors who’ve rushed into them to look around for other, more desirable assets. Chinese investors, for instance, might decide than an equity stake in Rio Tinto — with its portfolio of iron ore, coal, and other assets — is a better investment than more promises to pay by the U.S. government.

Perhaps we’ve been hasty, though, in calling the pricking of the bond bubble in the past. It could be that the U.S. dollar becomes the clear winner in the global currency wipe out currently taking place. The dollar could end up being the preferred liquid currency in which to ride out the global crisis, despite the inflationary nature of U.S. monetary and fiscal policy.

If that’s the case, then the U.S. Treasury market will continue to suck up the world’s supply of available savings and capital the way a bush fire sucks up oxygen. A fire sucking up all the oxygen in a system leads to a massive destruction of life. Hence the Greek word “holokaustos.”

According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, a holocaust is a “sacrifice consumed by fire,” or, “a thorough destruction involving extensive loss of life especially through fire.” The holocaust of the Treasuries, then, is what we’re getting at. First crowd all the world’s capital into the U.S. bond market. Then burn it up.

Smart money generally goes where it’s treated best (for yield and capital appreciation). In times of fear, what’s safe is smart. And so now the world’s investors and savers have an interesting choice: is the U.S. bond market safer than cash? Is it smart to play it safe? Or are equities safer than bonds? Or are equity stakes in projects with tangible assets better bets still, even in a world with a shrinking economy?

Our guess is that the printing of the Treasuries (increasing in the supply of U.S. bonds to fund the mega bailout, fuelling the eventual inflationary fire) will gradually spook investors now and into 2009. The leading edge of bargain hunters may already be finding their way into over-sold resource stocks for refuge. And will they find it? Or will their courage end in more losses?

It wouldn’t be surprising to see big one-day gains in over-sold resource stocks in the coming months. But we reckon the real story is that investors are rethinking their long-term asset allocation and will execute a new strategy after reviewing their 2009 performance.

More cash, fewer shares. And of the money that remains in shares, it will probably be parked in long-term positions that are selling at cheap valuations, perhaps with a nice yield. Expectations will be lowered and time horizons-for equities anyway-will be lengthened. You’ll have to expect less and be willing to wait longer.

Not that being in the equity market during the most serious financial crisis since 1929 is a sure thing. We live in dangerous times. Not much is certain. But for investors, the actions taken by U.S. monetary officials are starting to lead to movements in global capital. This could signal the beginning of the bottom in commodity prices, and the beginning of bargain hunting in resource shares.

Regards,
Dan Denning

Parting Shot: Well, you can’t say you haven’t been warned. You know full well that the fed is gathering wood and squirting accelerant all over the place. They are going to make sure this currency burns till there is nothing left.

Possible Holocaust in U.S. Bonds was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder