Ding, Dong, the Bear Is Dead
TownHall had an hysterically funny — from my perspective–article Sunday a week ago. As a kindness I will not reveal the columnist’s name because not said author will cringe in months to come over the nonsense uttered.
The producer of the screed’s triumphant cry is…”Ding, Dong, the Bear is dead!”
Old piece of country wisdom: when you shoot a dangerous predator reload your weapon and take your own sweet time before approaching the presumed carcass. With your gun at the ready when you finally decide it is safe to assume the b’ar is actually dead. It may turn out the thing was only stunned — or it could have been playing ‘possum.
Don’t go riling a wounded animal up; let the adrenalin die down first. Yours and its.
Sure, we’re tired of the Bear but the market does not run to our wishes, so let’s be a little cautious. A genuine new Bull will be good for at least eighteen months and it is far better to forego the chance of capturing the market version of golf’s hole in one by calling the bottom exactly and jumping on your chosen stocks lest we find we have leapt imprudently to a ledge halfway between top and bottom with no way out but down (or averaging down.)
Let some braver soul stroll up and kick the bear, because I’m not going to do it.
From my side of the table the proposal gets a solid nix. My soul reaction (sic) is relatively polite surprise and shaking my head at the naivete of the intrepid who rush out to add to the old adage, “There’s a lot of money in the Stock Market. I know; I put a bunch of it there myself.”
Okay, so the Spring Fling has continued through the long hot summer, the Dow is up handsomely, and a pack of Statists who don’t know a round lot from a round up are shouting “Green shoots, ho!” from the Crow’s Nest.
In time, they will choke on those crows who are watching the absurd proceedings with interest.
The whole premise is ludicrous. The Bear is dead because losses have slowed in the durable goods sector, not counting transportation? The Bear is dead because a “jobless” recovery “is still a recovery?” The Bear is dead because connected players have trillions of electronic dollars stuffed in their computerized vaults? The Bear is dead because new job loss claims are down 20% from the stats of the last many weeks? All of which, as I recall, were revised upwards later? The Bear is dead because one of America’s most famous investment firms managed to lose another 15% of what’s left of ten thousand I overlooked two years ago when I meant to get totally out of the market? How can anyone be down to $4750 when the market is up 48% in recent months? Ted managed.
All of that is on a par with the wisdom of “You aren’t jobless if you have been looking unsuccessfully for more than six months or if you are drawing unemployment insurance!”
I didn’t have to listen to the hype coming out of Washington to ascertain whether or not I were interested in government bailouts. I find it equally easy to resist happy cries of, “C’mon in! The water’s fine!” when the swimmer isn’t in a nice, big, clear, chlorinated, filtered, and skimmed pool but has jumped, inexplicably, into one of the lakes here on the ranch.
If anyone asked I would advise against such a course. Our lakes contain a fascinating assortment of wild life I would not care to encounter personally. No, I do not know that there are still leeches in our West lake, but I do know they were there fifty years ago and I see no reason to suppose they have moved on. You can see snakes and snapping turtles. Big fish come out of there, and while we don’t have any alligators, it would be unpleasant to step on a catfish. I know. My mother did it, long ago, and ended up having to visit the hospital to have the spiny fins removed.
“If you can’t see your way clearly, don’t step into it,” sounds like an excellent guideline to me.
I have every reason to suppose that the current financial climate is just as full of disgusting, painful, and dangerous entities and a plethora of particularly potent phenomena and petrifying possibilities, along with, perhaps, putrescent products, to go alliterative on you.
Nope, I’m going to stay right here hunched over my ancient computer (my only “lightning” offer recently took eight seconds to initiate and was on the board for an eternity: thirteen seconds) trolling for bargains in Reed & Barton and terrific trades in Towle. I don’t intend to play “Let’s feed it to Mikey!” by plunging in stocks. Signature chuckle…literally, many times old, slow technology we understand is far more efficient than the latest model with Vista, which I unplugged after two frustrating days. Figuratively…stick with what we know.
A jobless recovery…a jobless recovery…rolling that around on my experienced intellectual tongue, I’m going to spit it out inelegantly. A “jobless” recovery is a concept so inane and insane that only a Keynesian Statist who has never even patronized, far less run, a hot dog stand could come up with such a phrase.
You all know that I’m a technical analyst when it comes to the literal Stock Market and that I use my own bizarre brand of pragmatism when it comes to finding places to park stored value safely. My son is the Finance major with an MBA, and I don’t know if even he mucks around in P/E. I’m the Philosopher and Counselor who “reads” behavior and reeks of common sense.
You can’t have a “jobless” recovery for reasons so basic a reasonably bright pre-schooler can discern them. People without jobs cannot consume more than the most meager basics, if those. The jobless cannot make payments on credit card debt or mortgages. They do not buy new cars even during the tragi-comedy which lasted less than a week, the duration of the destructive (literally) “Cash for Clunkers” program.
Statists come up with cute slogans for their idiotic ideas. America took a very large capital loss, destroying billions of dollars’ worth of perfectly good used car parts for a Green victory. That was the purpose of the drill: to ensure that other older cars would be harder to repair. To reduce the inventory of usable radiators and hubcaps, transmissions and dipsticks. It “worked” so well Congress has thrown twice as much money in the pot to see how many more can be induced to give up workable cars in return for lesser vehicles which will never make back their cost in gas savings.
What concerns me isn’t what I see and advise you to do, it is what I see and back away from telling you for reasons ranging from the fact that this is an investment site, not a political one, although those factors are definitely intertwined inextricably, to not wanting to look like more of a domestic errorist (If I put in the T it will trip an automatic program to have this e-mail read by some bureaucrat I would prefer not to benefit from such wisdom as I have) than Janet Napolitano already says I am. The same day an overeager columnist declared the Bear’s demise, the Daily Bell, out of Switzerland, mentioned in print something I had known about for a couple of weeks. I believed it the first time a source sent it to me, and have had two different reports come across my screen prior to then.
Let’s make this hypothetical…what would your analysis and reaction be if you were told that large amounts of cash were being stuffed into diplomatic pouches with instructions, “Purchase all the local currency needed for a year’s operations?” Well…perhaps that the government thought it could save money because the current price is low? Snigger. Uh…that anticipated rising JP4 prices would curtail flights? Perhaps that electronic transfers of digits were not likely to be honored in host nations? Really reached for that one..who would dream of refusing USD..particularly considering the splendid reception of the last couple of offerings of US bonds? (Pretty much, we’re printing the things and selling them to ourselves, paying for them with money we printed ourselves. At last, a true perpetual motion machine. The world’s taste for fiscal cotton candy appears to be waning.)
How about if accumulating foreign currency is linked to a projected shortage of bank services, as in the anticipated imposition of bank “holidays?” That makes sense, the “holidays,” which would be “closures,” of course, have been on the table sporadically for a while…and just to make the matter more deadly, potentially, are usually linked with official devaluing of the dollar. Uh-oh. That one has a ring of plausibility to it greater than ding, dong, the Bear is dead.
You don’t need my (possibly paranoid) decision that the two best things we can do with money are to get it out of banks and to turn it into durable goods with all due dispatch.
I am definitely putting my remaining funds where my fears are. If Jesse James raids the banks he isn’t going to find much of mine to steal. Now, if Sherman marches through raping the pigs and stealing the chickens he’s going to do pretty well, at least on the first pass through. Yuh cain’t bury the livestock, but you could be hiding the smoked hams and great-grandfather’s gold-headed walking stick. And your clunkers.
Y’all do as you deem best, but here at the Whiskey Outpost the big pit over on th’ South Forty isn’t to bury the Bear in. We’re going to have a pig roast–and all my instincts say that so is the market!
Regards,
Linda Brady Traynham
August 11, 2009
P.S.: It is said that “Hindsight is 20-20,” which is another very large piece of nonsense. Few people ever figure out what happened in most instances. They do not learn from experience. A pertinent example is those twin debacles, the policies of FDR and the purported efficacy of socialized medicine.
The US is heading to the Greater Depression and our dear leader is determined to foist not only Canadian-style medical practices on us, but also the biggest “budget” deficit since the world began, the business-killing tax known as “Cap & Trade,” and the destruction of the small farmer and rancher under the noble title of the Food “Safety” Act, while Congress is hoping to add a VAT. I’ll discuss the everything-less “recovery” soon.
Linda Brady Traynham
Linda Brady Traynham is a former editor and analytical project report writer and is now a Whiskey & Gunpowder field correspondent on a ranch in the Republic of Texas. She studied Counseling at Boston University and got her Masters degree in Philosophy from the University of Hawaii.
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How many times have you heard me say, “These things just happen to me?”
My new Foreman hit town tonight at 5:15, long after this article went out. Over dinner at the best steak house in town, conveniently on the way home, I discussed having him check out the dams and silting on our two lakes. The man is a former SEAL, so this makes sense, right?
I said that I thought he probably needed more than swim fins, arm floaties, and a little plastic spade and pail, and asked his opinion on whether a dry suit would be sufficient, or if a full wet suit would be better, and added that I didn’t suppose he needed a bathysphere. Of course I talk to the Foreman like that. He has a fine sense of humor and being a nut is a prerequisite for a job around here.
He didn’t even choke over a porterhouse steak that was all but hanging off the edge of his plate but replied that from the reports he had received on the lakes he not only advised a full wet suit but underwater lights!
I had hoped to get him to call me “Boss Lady,” ’cause it jest sounds so danged Texan, but durned if he didn’t go to callin’ me “Miss Linda” as the rest of the hands do. Ah’ll tell you again that it is THEIR idea. Shucks. I had visions of gettin’ me one of them thar de-vided suede riding skirts an’ a quirt…well, okay, so I’m ‘funning. He’s going to train a horse to pull my glossy black doctor’s buggy, and we’re all on the lookout for a side saddle! Seriously. I’ll probably end up riding Bonnie Blue with an English saddle. Hey, by the time you put a rotund little old lady on a big Western saddle she’d look like Humpty Dumpty straddling the great wall of China. As long as it has been since I have riden I’ll be be lucky not to end up on a leading rein.
To get back to the subject, you don’t have to be a frogman or a “web foot,” as I am told I can refer to him reasonably politely (The guys still won’t tell me what other Navy types call SEALs when ladies are not around, although I learned that my darling Charles can be referred to with some decorum as a “bubble head.”) to see that the market and the political-economic-social system are about as easy to deal with at present as our lakes. Don’t go in without full protection and a way to shine extra light on any stock that catches your eye. It is not difficult for even someone with no training to see that even an expert is going to want all the protection he can get!
Uh…what is it I said that is too dull to comment on and not even harsh enough to provoke a Statist?!
LBT
The reason you’re not getting any comments, except from those of us who know that you know what you’re talking about, is that most refuse to remove the blinders that they’ve been wearing. Granted, blinders are very useful under certain conditions…particularly when it involves a horse pulling a buggy…but under other conditions that you so aptly describe, it can have especially destructive results.
When up comes to a recently …and presumably…deceased b’ar or wild boar, blinders can get you dead in a hurry. Or at least a resident in the local hospital for an extended stay. On an economic front, those who buy into the idea that the bull market is back have conveniently ignored the fact that the b’ar is only napping, deciding how much of that lucious looking backside he wants to devour when he awakens.
Love your analysis, comments, humor, pithy sayings and prognostications. Hang in there and don’t let the lack of comments get you down.
Thanks. Doesn’t get me down, it’s just more fun when we start dialogues. Sorry you don’t like my work. Hugs, Linda
,,,,”who would dream of refusing USD..particularly considering the splendid reception of the last couple of offerings of US bonds? (Pretty much, we’re printing the things and selling them to ourselves, paying for them with money we printed ourselves. At last, a true perpetual motion machine. The world’s taste for fiscal cotton candy appears to be waning.)”
That’s all you really need to know to see what’s coming. I love the perpetual motion machine reference, but I’m afraid that concept too is an illusion, like the greenshoots….
Maybe someday after TSHTF, those of us who have covered our posteriers can get together and cook up some of those catfish. Statist of course will not be welcome…
So, Linda, did you ever take my advice on purchasing that used Jaguar car on the cheap? Tell us, how is that little gem turning out to be? How do you like the idea that when it quits for no particular reason and then it may or may not run well for a while and then quits again? How do you like the idea that your favourite mechanic must send you a substantial bill to fix it as he spent so much time on it researching the many idiosynchrasies of the cat known as Jaguar that he himself lost a lot of revenue by not working on other jobs but could not bring himself to charge you for the real hours he spent on it? And of course the cycle starts all over again after it runs very well for a period of time. Great feeling going to town in a nice looking used Jag that is not quite so cheap any more, but heck the neighbors won’t know this will they? By the time you realize it is a money pit, you will very glad to give it to someone, maybe your mechanic who will disown you if you do! Hah, I own three of these lovely older ladies, but it is just a hobby for me to see who can outsmart who, the lady cat or me.
Anyway, so commenting on the Canadian Health Care System, who is doing better financially, Canada or the USA? The proof is in the pudding as the old saying goes. BTW, I enjoy reading your stuff, well it is corny sometimes but……. Best Regards, CanadaNorth
Jack, you wrote: “who would dream of refusing USD..particularly considering the splendid reception of the last couple of offerings of US bonds? (Pretty much, we’re printing the things and selling them to ourselves, paying for them with money we printed ourselves. At last, a true perpetual motion machine. The world’s taste for fiscal cotton candy appears to be waning.)”
That’s all you really need to know to see what’s coming. I love the perpetual motion machine reference, but I’m afraid that concept too is an illusion, like the greenshoots….IT WAS DEFINITELY TONGUE IN CHEEK. I KEPT THINKING OF STARBELLY SNEETCHES.
Maybe someday after TSHTF, those of us who have covered our posteriers can get together and cook up some of those catfish. Statist of course will not be welcome…WAHOO, THAT’S A VERY FINE IDEA. THE STATIST WILL BE OUT GRUBBING ROOTS, AT BEST.
I HAD REALLY INTENDED TO COME IN HERE AND WHOMP UP A LITTLE FANTASY ABOUT SOME CITY SLICKERS WHO FIND THEMSELVES OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF NOWHERE TRYING TO SURVIVE WITH NO KNOWLEDGE AT ALL. WE SCRAMBLE LIKE CRAZY, OURSELVES, AND HAD A CASE OF OAK LEAF POISONING THIS WEEK. OUR SWEET ABDUL, THE BULL-BULL EMIR (AMOUR) (A MOOER) IS GETTING OUT OF THREE DAYS IN THE VET’S HOSPITAL TOMORROW. WE LEARNED THE HARD WAY WHAT GOATS DO TO TREE BARK (WE’RE HAVING TO FELL 5 TREES IN THE YARD), AND WOE BETIED ANYONE WHO LETS AN ANIMAL OF ANY SORT NEAR A GREEN HOUSE OR THE GARDEN. WHAT SORTA PLACE YOU GOT, AND WHAT ARE YOU DOING TO PREPARE? THANKS FOR WRITING. LINDA
Hi, Canada! Good to hear from you again.
So, Linda, did you ever take my advice on purchasing that used Jaguar car on the cheap? Tell us, how is that little gem turning out to be? CHUCKLE…I THINK WE’VE BOUGHT ANOTHER JAG OR TWO, ANOTHER DIESEL MERCEDES, AND A PAIR OF DIESEL TRUCKS, SINCE THEN, ONE OF THEM A REPO TRUCK!How do you like the idea that when it quits for no particular reason and then it may or may not run well for a while and then quits again? WELL, I WOULDN’T LIKE IT AT ALL, BUT FORTUNATELY I HAVE THREE FELLOWS WHO KNOW A THING OR TWO. I’D THINK OF A FUEL PROBLEM, FIRST, CRUD IN THE LINES OR SOMEWHERE. I ASKED CHARLES AND HE SAID THAT AFTER HE HAD CHECKED THE FUEL SYSTEM HE WOULD SEE IF THE COMPUTER IS OVERHEATING.
How do you like the idea that your favourite mechanic must send you a substantial bill to fix it as he spent so much time on it researching the many idiosynchrasies of the cat known as Jaguar that he himself lost a lot of revenue by not working on other jobs but could not bring himself to charge you for the real hours he spent on it? And of course the cycle starts all over again after it runs very well for a period of time. SYMPATHY ON BOTH SIDES. CHUCKLE. CHARLES JUST EXCLAIMED, “HOW ARE YOU GETTING INVOLVED IN ANSWERING…” HE KNOWS I STILL THINK THINGS HAVE CARBURETORS. Great feeling going to town in a nice looking used Jag that is not quite so cheap any more, but heck the neighbors won’t know this will they? By the time you realize it is a money pit, you will very glad to give it to someone, maybe your mechanic who will disown you if you do! Hah, I own three of these lovely older ladies, but it is just a hobby for me to see who can outsmart who, the lady cat or me. ADDICTIVE, AREN’T THEY?!
Anyway, so commenting on the Canadian Health Care System, who is doing better financially, Canada or the USA? BOTH ARE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE. The proof is in the pudding as the old saying goes. BTW, I enjoy reading your stuff, well it is corny sometimes but……. Best Regards, CanadaNorth CORNY?! YOU LOUSE! ROFL. HEY, I WRITE FOR FUN, AND MY SIMPLE JESTS AMUSE ME.
WE STILL HAVEN’T REPAIRED THE HARNESS AND TAUGHT A HORSE TO PULL OUR BEAUTIFUL, GLOSSY BLACK DOCTOR’S BUGGY. WHAT ARE YOU UP TO OTHER THAN TRYING TO TAME CATS? I HAD A 528E ONCE THAT OBJECTED SO TO BEING TAKEN OVER THE ROCKIES THAT PLATOONS OF LITTLE GERMAN ELVES COULDN’T COAX THE GAS GAUGE INTO WORKING…LINDA