Comments on: Disasters Far and Near: Haiti and the U.S. Economy http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/disasters-far-and-near-haiti-and-the-u-s-economy/ Whiskey and Gunpowder features articles on gold, oil, currencies, emerging markets, energy, and more. Tue, 22 May 2012 22:11:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: oldmanriver http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/disasters-far-and-near-haiti-and-the-u-s-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-5152 oldmanriver Thu, 21 Jan 2010 21:33:08 +0000 http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/?p=6241#comment-5152 There have been several references to the US having a "bad crop" lately as far as corn, soybeans and wheat. I just dont see it. Is the corn crop 13 billion bu? Probably not, is it less that 12 billion bu? Definately not. The number crunchers are putting the carry out at 1.5 billion bu give or take. For there to be a short crop and drastic rationing to take place you need a carry out of less than 1 billion bu. What everyone is arguing about between the gov numbers and the private numbers is about 500 million bu. Regardless of what the corn yield was like for your particular area. If you do not live in a state that begins with an "I",Nebraska or MN it dosnt really matter what happened there concerning prices or the supply of corn. I was in Neb a good part of the fall doing some consulting and their crops were very very good. My farm in Illinois avg 196 bpa. The talk in the coffee shops in ohio shows very good yields as well. We did not have a short crop. There are issues with quality and with corn left out in the fields that will have to be harvested when the snow melts and the ground is fit, but we are not talking about an effect of 1 billion bu. We had a record or very near record corn crop. Beans did well also. South America looks like it is going to have a good crop. The russians had a good crop and are going to export 5 million more tons of wheat than they did the previous year. The export market has been slow so far this year. This is not pointing to a shortage of grain this year. Realistically corn would probably be in the $2.50 range if it were not for the funds and the faltering value of the dollar. The value of the dollar probably has far more reaching effects on the price of grain and other commodities than any other factor. With the big managed funds involved in the commodities markets you can see an inverse relationship between the dollar and the general price of commodities. It seems as if commodities in general are being used for store of value as currencies devalue. At least thats my take on it. I would say that the real problem right now is the quality of the crop thats sitting in bins. Low tests weights were reported all across the corn belt. Its going to take more corn to make a pound of beef, chicken, pork or gallon of ethanol than it did last year. Our corn was testing in the low 50s. I have heard talk of avgs being in the 45 pound range. That could cause usages to be higher than normal, we will see. There have been several references to the US having a “bad crop” lately as far as corn, soybeans and wheat. I just dont see it. Is the corn crop 13 billion bu? Probably not, is it less that 12 billion bu? Definately not. The number crunchers are putting the carry out at 1.5 billion bu give or take. For there to be a short crop and drastic rationing to take place you need a carry out of less than 1 billion bu. What everyone is arguing about between the gov numbers and the private numbers is about 500 million bu. Regardless of what the corn yield was like for your particular area. If you do not live in a state that begins with an “I”,Nebraska or MN it dosnt really matter what happened there concerning prices or the supply of corn. I was in Neb a good part of the fall doing some consulting and their crops were very very good. My farm in Illinois avg 196 bpa. The talk in the coffee shops in ohio shows very good yields as well. We did not have a short crop. There are issues with quality and with corn left out in the fields that will have to be harvested when the snow melts and the ground is fit, but we are not talking about an effect of 1 billion bu. We had a record or very near record corn crop. Beans did well also. South America looks like it is going to have a good crop. The russians had a good crop and are going to export 5 million more tons of wheat than they did the previous year. The export market has been slow so far this year. This is not pointing to a shortage of grain this year. Realistically corn would probably be in the $2.50 range if it were not for the funds and the faltering value of the dollar. The value of the dollar probably has far more reaching effects on the price of grain and other commodities than any other factor. With the big managed funds involved in the commodities markets you can see an inverse relationship between the dollar and the general price of commodities. It seems as if commodities in general are being used for store of value as currencies devalue. At least thats my take on it. I would say that the real problem right now is the quality of the crop thats sitting in bins. Low tests weights were reported all across the corn belt. Its going to take more corn to make a pound of beef, chicken, pork or gallon of ethanol than it did last year. Our corn was testing in the low 50s. I have heard talk of avgs being in the 45 pound range. That could cause usages to be higher than normal, we will see.

]]> By: Joe http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/disasters-far-and-near-haiti-and-the-u-s-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-5150 Joe Thu, 21 Jan 2010 20:20:56 +0000 http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/?p=6241#comment-5150 In Lester Brown's "Plan B" he cites about a dozen major trends threatening the world's food supply. Each of them would take concerted global effort to reverse. These include things like the impending loss of glaciers (about a billion people in China and India and South American rely on glacial melt for summer crops), overfishing (2/3 of the world's fisheries are in collapse or decline), groundwater depletion (2/3 of the world's aquifers are in decline, the rising number of people eating resource-intensive animal products, the fact that rising summer temperatures threaten photosynthesis itself - which stops at 104 degrees Fahrenheit, etc. Others include the mass-scale paving of farmland, topsoil depletion, and the very likely significant rise of the oceans which will inundate fertile deltas and, eventually, coastal plains. One of the most intractable threats to the world's food supply is, of course, the growth of population. There are many reasons for the world's unsustainable population growth (including poverty), but one not sufficiently mentioned, in my opinion, is the role of America's Christian right in preventing US aid to promote birth control or abortion. In an effort to protect the un-born, American Christians will cause the ugly, slow, painful death of perhaps hundreds of millions of adults. In Lester Brown’s “Plan B” he cites about a dozen major trends threatening the world’s food supply. Each of them would take concerted global effort to reverse. These include things like the impending loss of glaciers (about a billion people in China and India and South American rely on glacial melt for summer crops), overfishing (2/3 of the world’s fisheries are in collapse or decline), groundwater depletion (2/3 of the world’s aquifers are in decline, the rising number of people eating resource-intensive animal products, the fact that rising summer temperatures threaten photosynthesis itself – which stops at 104 degrees Fahrenheit, etc. Others include the mass-scale paving of farmland, topsoil depletion, and the very likely significant rise of the oceans which will inundate fertile deltas and, eventually, coastal plains.

One of the most intractable threats to the world’s food supply is, of course, the growth of population. There are many reasons for the world’s unsustainable population growth (including poverty), but one not sufficiently mentioned, in my opinion, is the role of America’s Christian right in preventing US aid to promote birth control or abortion. In an effort to protect the un-born, American Christians will cause the ugly, slow, painful death of perhaps hundreds of millions of adults.

]]> By: Linda Brady Traynham http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/disasters-far-and-near-haiti-and-the-u-s-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-5149 Linda Brady Traynham Thu, 21 Jan 2010 19:58:23 +0000 http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/?p=6241#comment-5149 "Techno-triumphalist posturing" is prime JHK, but we may have to rethink "dirt cookies" (butter, salt, sugar, and dirt) ourselves. Yet again the harvest was bad, not only world-wide but in the putative glory of American Agribiz. Something I always find scary is a big notice in the Johnny's Seed Catalog, "Seed Crop Failed." If Johnny can't grow plants for seeds, the rest of us are going to have trouble, too. In particular look for corn and wheat products to go up. “Techno-triumphalist posturing” is prime JHK, but we may have to rethink “dirt cookies” (butter, salt, sugar, and dirt) ourselves. Yet again the harvest was bad, not only world-wide but in the putative glory of American Agribiz. Something I always find scary is a big notice in the Johnny’s Seed Catalog, “Seed Crop Failed.” If Johnny can’t grow plants for seeds, the rest of us are going to have trouble, too. In particular look for corn and wheat products to go up.

]]> By: Linda Brady Traynham http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/disasters-far-and-near-haiti-and-the-u-s-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-5145 Linda Brady Traynham Thu, 21 Jan 2010 17:47:04 +0000 http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/?p=6241#comment-5145 Not with a bang, but with a whimper. Not with a bang, but with a whimper.

]]> By: Disasters Far and Near: Haiti and the U.S. Economy « THE INTERNET POST http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/disasters-far-and-near-haiti-and-the-u-s-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-5142 Disasters Far and Near: Haiti and the U.S. Economy « THE INTERNET POST Thu, 21 Jan 2010 15:01:34 +0000 http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/?p=6241#comment-5142 [...] CONTINUED HERE [...] [...] CONTINUED HERE [...]

]]> By: Disasters Far and Near: Haiti and the U.S. Economy : PlanetTalk.net - Learn the truth , no more lies http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/disasters-far-and-near-haiti-and-the-u-s-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-5139 Disasters Far and Near: Haiti and the U.S. Economy : PlanetTalk.net - Learn the truth , no more lies Thu, 21 Jan 2010 07:53:22 +0000 http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/?p=6241#comment-5139 [...] See the rest here:  Disasters Far and Near: Haiti and the U.S. Economy [...] [...] See the rest here:  Disasters Far and Near: Haiti and the U.S. Economy [...]

]]> By: Disasters Far and Near: Haiti and the U.S. Economy | Drakz Free Online Service http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/disasters-far-and-near-haiti-and-the-u-s-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-5138 Disasters Far and Near: Haiti and the U.S. Economy | Drakz Free Online Service Thu, 21 Jan 2010 06:31:09 +0000 http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/?p=6241#comment-5138 [...] here: Disasters Far and Near: Haiti and the U.S. Economy Share and [...] [...] here: Disasters Far and Near: Haiti and the U.S. Economy Share and [...]

]]> By: rolland carpenter http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/disasters-far-and-near-haiti-and-the-u-s-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-5136 rolland carpenter Thu, 21 Jan 2010 04:28:11 +0000 http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/?p=6241#comment-5136 The talk of taxing Wall Street Treasury and Fed looters is a weak response to a Treasonous Fraud on America. This was a conspiracy by Wall Street operatives in and out of government. Those in high official positions are sworn to serve their country, not their cronies. We need investigations and prosecutions, not hearings and new regulations. Thanks for covering this disgrace and disaster to America's future. The talk of taxing Wall Street Treasury and Fed looters is a weak response to a Treasonous Fraud on America. This was a conspiracy by Wall Street operatives in and out of government. Those in high official positions are sworn to serve their country, not their cronies. We need investigations and prosecutions, not hearings and new regulations. Thanks for covering this disgrace and disaster to America’s future.

]]> By: Mike http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/disasters-far-and-near-haiti-and-the-u-s-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-5133 Mike Thu, 21 Jan 2010 01:12:34 +0000 http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/?p=6241#comment-5133 Once again, James - well written! Once again, James – well written!

]]> By: Bill Simmons http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/disasters-far-and-near-haiti-and-the-u-s-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-5132 Bill Simmons Thu, 21 Jan 2010 00:45:43 +0000 http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/?p=6241#comment-5132 Political and economic parallels between Haiti and the USA can only exist in a peculiar Kunstlerian geometrical reality where wealth equals poverty, literacy equals ignorance, vast infrastructure equals shantytowns, rule of law equals chaos, recession equals disaster, and power equals powerlessness. Actually, our present economy is "based on real productive activity conducted at a scale consistent with resource realities." If that fact is in question, just examine the still unsurpassed level of economic output which will remain at respectable levels despite difficulties and will not "die in six months" as stated by JHK in last week's essay. Hyperbole may be a reflexive response to the large problems that we face, but we won't get an accurate understanding of the future by overestimating its impact. Our nation's decline is manageable. Just as a growing America supported the declining British empire, so a burgeoning Asian and newly global economy will ease our pains as we share economic prosperity with the world. Political and economic parallels between Haiti and the USA can only exist in a peculiar Kunstlerian geometrical reality where wealth equals poverty, literacy equals ignorance, vast infrastructure equals shantytowns, rule of law equals chaos, recession equals disaster, and power equals powerlessness. Actually, our present economy is “based on real productive activity conducted at a scale consistent with resource realities.” If that fact is in question, just examine the still unsurpassed level of economic output which will remain at respectable levels despite difficulties and will not “die in six months” as stated by JHK in last week’s essay. Hyperbole may be a reflexive response to the large problems that we face, but we won’t get an accurate understanding of the future by overestimating its impact. Our nation’s decline is manageable. Just as a growing America supported the declining British empire, so a burgeoning Asian and newly global economy will ease our pains as we share economic prosperity with the world.

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