Ethanol production per se does not result in energy loss, provided that bagasse and biomass from the locality of production, and not petroleum from somewhere else, is used as the energy source in the process. The energy loss begins when we have to transport the finished product away from the centers of production. The longer the distance, the more energy needed. Thus, while I support ethanol production, such initiatives are most effective when carried out on a local, not national level. Transporting ethanol fuel from Nebraska, not to mention the environmental damage that would result from intensive large-scale agriculture.

Which reminds me, plowing the soil is a good way to kill soil fertility. In the future, no-till farming may become very popular in America as people study ways to grow their own food.

And, yes, we will need comprehensive railway service in the years to come. (Surprising that GM has not gotten on the bandwagon with this one They’d be getting out of their rut in a short time.) With the current national deficit, everyone across three generations will have to pay a high amount of taxes just so Washington can pay off its debt. Which means that most people will not want to drive cars because the increased taxes will make gasoline very expensive. Diesel may also shoot up through the roof as well, making long-distance transport of goods unfeasible. (And, if bicycles and their accessories are subject to high taxes as well, even so modest a form of transportation will become untenable as well. Guess we’ll have to go back to horse buggies and carts.) Every major city will have to establish agricultural capacity in nearby areas. USA is a big country, so there are different climates as well as different demographic compositions. This means that, in due time, places like the South, the Mid-Atlantic, and even the Mountain West will develop distinctive cuisines ^-^ With the reduction in cultural exchanges between regions, each region will digest the cultural inputs received prior to contraction and develop distinct regional identities.

Currently the US debt is about 77% of GDP. That is, out of the $14.3 trillion total of American GDP, $10.9 trillion is how much we owe to foreign banks and every other creditor. Since there is no longer much taxable production remaining Stateside, the government has resorted to a printing binge at the central banks. Assuming that the Feds do not borrow even one cent until the last cent of debt is paid off, if they take 20 years to pay it all off, we are looking at $545 billion per annum. Not to mention that, on top of that, there are things like Social Security, upkeep of airports and roadways, budgets for all the Federal agencies, and other expenses. Running a big country takes big money and even bigger self-discipline.

Until we can find a source of cheap energy with which to run our automated heavy factories and such, or until the advent and establishment of an infrastructure that can supply the required energy to people that need it, we are pretty much down to using coolie power. Slavery might make a comeback in the future, especially since “basic human rights” such as a living wage and safe worlplace conditions will be seen as untenable in the face of great economic and financial misery.

I wonder if anyone has thought of producing power stations for every 100 square miles of territory, using locally sourced materials as fuel. With its redendancy it certainly beats massive power grids like the ones we have currently in operation. For instance, in the Southern States methane gas from biodigesters, hooked up to a few toilets, would be a feasible source of energy. In the North windmills and solar cells would be better than biodigesters, since the cool temperatures there can slow down the fermentation process inside a biodigester tank enough to render production nil.

And to Mr. Simmons, I have the following to say. As your detractors have said, the party is over, indeed. The only thing that can be done is to reduce the scale of consumption per capita and find other ways to maintain a comfortable lifestyle. Of course we may not have DirecTV and other such services easily available, but there are other ways the American people can entertain themselves. Even if the scenario turns out as you mentioned in your last post, it will take a while before alternative fuel sources go mainstream. In the interim the people will have to resort to growing their own food, using things from their locality, and – if they want electricity – producing it themselves, although this last option would require the installation of a supply chain to insure parts needed to keep electricity generating devices in working condition.

I strongly recommend to all of you blogs like anthropik.com . Very elucidating for those contemplating a post-collapse scenario where caveman skills may become the key to survival. Also, a website like journeytoforever.org is stronlgy recommended, with its myriad of books and articles on agriculture and alternative energy. A profound rethink of how we run our economy is long overdue, IMHO. Our lives depend on it.

It is possible to run a society without electricity or petroleum. The people simply need to have imagination and the gumption to live a different lifestyle, as well as the skills. Eisuke Ishikawa has a few books on life during Japan’s Edo Period. One of them is titled “Sustainability in Japan’s Edo Period.” You can read a few exceprts here:

http://www.japanfs.org/en_/column/ishikawa.html

I feel a bit sorry for the consumers in China and India. If they all expect to enjoy our current (American) lifestyle without the attendant social consequences that lie a little farther down the road (e.g., lack of socialization, overconsumption, a crass sense of entitlement), they are in for a rude awakening, whether it comes 20 years or 200 years from now. (100 million cars on the road in America is a lot; imagine 700 milion on the road in China and India!) I’d like to see how they deal with the environmental damage in these countries. This will soon become more important than Hubbert’s Peak.

Judging by the amount techno optimists who responded you should have included an intro to Energy Returned on Energy Invested. For all of you who think this is about a short term correction do your self a favour and read about ERoEI. It will help turn the lights on in your collective worlds. There will still be billions of barrels of oil in the ground when we stop recovering it because the amount of energy (drills, platforms, pumping stations, site trucks, etc, etc.) required to get it will equal the energy we get back from it. This is basic economics that all should be able to understand. do you selves another favour and look around the world reserve sites and look at the ERoEI for various fields. They have all been diminishing for years. This is also why ethanol will not work. Very poor ERoEI if you believe the optimists it is just above break even but then of course they still take for granted that the crops are all grown with fossil fuels. Once these are either in terminal decline or diminished the yields on all crops will plummet making ethanol a losing game.

The party is over, get used to it.

E

On the other hand, back to reality, look at the long sweep of history instead of this serious, but short term downturn we are in. We all will continue to depend on large-scale agriculture for survival, and food will continue to become cheaper, and we will have more leisure to putter in our backyard gardens growing fresh, quality produce. More and more individuals will get behind steering wheels driving vehicles that get incredible mileage, as energy and transportation continue to get cheaper and cheaper. Trains will improve in their capacity to deliver goods and people more efficiently than highway transport, but still and always less conveniently. The cost of energy will continue in its long and steady downward trajectory, becoming more and more affordable to more and more people. The cost of human labor and intelligence will continue in the opposite direction. Robotic labor and artificial intelligence will continue to proliferate. Suburbia will expand, fill in and merge with urban areas becoming more acceptable to JHK.

Those who expect a “scientific rescue” tend to be those who believe that a perpetual motion machine really is possilbe; that is to say, the people who expect this kind of fix know nothing about science at all.

Let’s see how things pan out. I run Kunstler articles because I think he’s entirely right on why things shaped up the way they have and we’re they’re likely to go next. I do not, however, share any optimism about how any elected official–including Mr. O–will handle anything.

Private vehicles for everyone on earth at puberty? Borrowing from an advertising phrase popular in the late1950′s, as the freeway build gained momentum: “Trains Are A Cars Best Friend” was based on rationale that the projected car-based economy needed trains, freight & passenger, to maintain Societal & Commercial Cohesion. In fact, US military transportation doctrine was very inclusive of maintaining the rail component in strategic planning, calling railways “Second Dimension Surface Transport Logistics Platform”.

Railways suffered from the fact that they did not offer the titilating return on investment seen in other transport modes. Modes like airlines, autos, & trucking benefited from subsidies, and military support for the ever-growing imported cheap oil so necessary to render the railways less dominant. We are at the downstream end of that rubber tire experiment, and we have not much time to trim down the reliance on highway commerce, while building back rail capacity, extending mains and rehab of the branchlines to protect local victuals & necessities of life. Talking down USA rail rehab & expansion is meaningless; Russia, China, the EU, South American & African countries are underway with railway engineering totaling in the $Trillions.

People anxious to move to a brave new economy based on alternative energies & highway transport will be disappointed to a deadly degree if they do not see to the railway service requisites in their respective locales. Helpful US Railway Map Atlas Sets are available: “spv.co.uk”. Rail savvy personnel can be generated from recommissioned Railway Operating & Maintenance Batallions at the State National Guard installations across the country. These units are going to be needed as the rail rehab program allows stand-alone aspects of railways to play crucial role in coming natural & man-made disasters. All should get a copy of “Rail Transport And The Winning Of Wars” by James A. Van Fleet, from Association Of American Railroads in DC> (202-639-2100). Updated to renewable energy era is “Electric Water”, by Christopher C. Swan (New Society Press, 2007). Offered also is (peakoil.net) articles 374 &1037.

Tom Friedman,s army of back-yard mechanics and inventors may (or not) eventually win the day, but their less inspired family members & neighbors will need dependable delivery of victuals, perishables, and whatever might be riding the rails as the long-haul trucker’s diesel fuel is allocated to the farms! Certainly Byron King is a believable name in this website: How stands he on railway rehab?

And you, Mr. Pickens? Natural Gas for a million trucks- but not a word about railways…. How about trucks on natural gas fuel, in a policy of transport focused on longer hauls by rail; shorter runs, pick-up & delivery role for the trucks?