Gold Is Going to $3,000: Get Some Physical Gold
Mar 4th, 2009 | By Byron King | Category: Featured, Gold
Asset classes go up and down. Precious metals are, of course, another asset class. They move with the economic tides. In the past 30 years, gold has rocketed up and plummeted down.
At several points in the past 30 years, things were so bad that gold sellers were like the proverbial Maytag repairman. They led lives of quiet desperation about which no one cared. Because like the late Rodney Dangerfield, gold got no respect.
Heck, between 1999-2002, the British government sold a large amount of its national gold, nearly 395 tonnes (metric tons), for about $275 per ounce. The Bank of England used the proceeds to purchase (ahem) “high-yielding” assets, like bonds. I suppose it seemed like a good idea to somebody. But really. In hindsight, how dumb was that? The British used to fight wars for gold (remember the Boer War, anyone?) Now they’re selling gold to buy bonds? They used to hang people for lesser crimes.
Last March 2008, gold sold for over $1,000 per ounce. Then the price retreated 30% as oil rocketed from about $100 to $147 per barrel. But even though gold fell back in price, it was still selling, on average, for almost three times what the Brits took in less than a decade ago. You didn’t do that with bonds. So the lesson is that we have to keep our eyes open about cycles and trends, even with something like gold.
Just in the past six months, almost every nonprecious metal asset class has been headed down. The stock markets have been tanking. Prices for everything from aluminum to zircon are way down. Oil has been bottom-fishing. The world is sliding downhill into deep recession. It’s a long litany of bad news out there. Except for precious metals, which have held their own.
Lately, precious metals have been in a stealth rally. It was not front-page news, until last week when gold touched the $1,000 mark again. Operating gold miners hit lows in October 2008…and they’ve all been rising in the markets ever since.
Investors in a Mass Migration to Gold and Silver
What’s going on? It’s a worldwide trend. Investors have been flocking to gold and silver. There’s a money migration going on. And I mean BIG money is migrating. It’s like those herds of zebras or wildebeests or gazelles in Africa. When they migrate, the earth shakes and the ground is just a moving kaleidoscope of hides and footprints. The dust clouds blow high into the sky.
Yes, the world economy might be in a recession. People across the world are worried about their job and security for their family. But other people with big bucks are scooping up gold and silver. Those buyers are looking for investment safety.
Moneyed investors don’t trust the world’s governments or paper currencies. So they are going with gold and silver. The mines and mints are having trouble keeping up with demand. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs like, for example, SPDR Gold Shares, GLD) are buying huge volumes of gold and silver. (And they ought to be buying more. At the margins, at least, it appears that even the ETFs are holding “paper” gold rights, as opposed to the real McCoy metal.)
Who’s Holding the Metal?
Let’s look at silver. In January 2006, the total silver held in ETFs was about 40 million ounces. By January of this year, 2009, the total silver in ETFs exceeds 280 million ounces. That’s an increase by a factor of seven in just three years.
The story with gold is just as dramatic. Who ever heard of a gold ETF until just a few years ago? But by the end of 2008, gold holdings of ETFs reached a record level of 1,090 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Thus, ETF holdings now exceed those of Switzerland and many other large and important nations. (Check the listing below.) In the fourth quarter of 2008, investors purchased ETF gold interests representing 96 tonnes of gold. (Far more than the total gold reserves of Australia.) This followed the purchase of an unprecedented 145 tonnes (more than the reserves of Saudi Arabia) in the previous quarter, according to the WGC. These are astonishing levels of demand, where there was almost none just a few years ago.
Just for comparison, here are the approximate gold holdings of a list of major countries as of the end of 2008, plus the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. Wow!
Gold Holding and Gold Hoarding
Much of the gold in the vaults of the worlds’ central banks has accumulated over many decades. Much of the U.S. government gold reserve, for example, dates from the national gold confiscation of 1933 under President Franklin Roosevelt. Roosevelt had a compliant Congress to do his bidding. Eventually, even the Supreme Court backed him up. So what’s that old expression? “It CAN happen here.”
Many other countries of the world are currently buying gold, fresh from the mine. Today, China is the world’s largest gold-producing nation, and its central bank is buying and building reserves. Russia, too, has a tradition of holding gold and today is acquiring gold from its own mine output and via purchases on international markets. Or look at tiny Qatar, a small nation in the middle of the Persian Gulf. Qatar had only 8 tonnes of gold about three years ago. Now it has 12 tonnes, an increase of 50% in a very short time. What do the Chinese, the Russians or the Qataris know? They know that they want gold. They can buy it. They will hold it. And they are hoarding it.
The Feel of Real Gold — Useful Weight Gain
I’ve mentioned on many occasions that I like holding precious metals. I like holding metals as an investment and I just like the feel of the stuff. At the “elementary” level (yep, that’s a pun), you can hold physical metals. If you’ve never felt the coolness and heft of a shiny gold $50 Eagle or a Canadian Maple Leaf in your hand — let alone a fine old specimen of a $20 coin from the days of old in the U.S. — you’ve missed something. Really, the only thing better than holding an Eagle or Maple Leaf is holding an entire roll of 20 of them.
When I was in South Africa last year, I visited a refining operation and actually picked up a gold brick. It was almost right out of the melting pot. The brick was still warm, and the darn thing weighed about 75 pounds. That’s what I call “useful weight gain.” Too bad I couldn’t bring it home with me. But the armed guards at the refinery might have objected.
I’ve never made a formal Outstanding Investments recommendation for buying a particular kind of gold or silver coin, or ingots from this mint or that or any such thing. Those kinds of gold purchases are too hard to track in a newsletter like this. So I’ve recommended gold and silver miners and their shares. But over the past couple of years, I hope you’ve had the chance to acquire some real metal for your portfolio. Agora Financial has been banging the golden drum for at least 10 years. If you have never bought any gold, it’s still not too late. I think that the recent visit to $1,000 is just the beginning of another great wave of gold buying. I won’t be surprised to see $3,000 gold.
Coins and ingots are the kinds of things you keep in your bank safe deposit box or in a well-hidden home safe. Some people keep them in their “second” home safe. Why a second safe? Well, the first safe is the one with a few hundred bucks of cash and some good-looking costume jewelry in it. You would open the first safe if a robber broke into your house and held a gun to your head. (Sorry, I’m not kidding. We live in a tough world.)
And for as much as I urge you to own some gold or ingots, you should never talk about it. OK, you might tell a few family members or maybe a trusted friend or two. But the fact that you have a stash of real gold is too valuable to broadcast or advertise. As I said above, “It CAN happen here.” It already has happened here. It might happen again, if things get too rough out there.
For all the talk in Washington about getting the national economy back on track and spending under control, I think you still need to keep an eye on gold and silver. Get some. Own some. Hold some.
Until we meet again,
Byron W. King
March 4, 2009
A few days ago Byron King recommended GLD, the exchange traded fund (ETF) for gold. A Shooter was aghast…
“Surprised that Whiskey is recommending the GLD ETF. The ETF takes delivery?! Are you sure? You mean they actually have all that gold in their own physical possession rather than pieces of paper promises from JP Morgan? Come on, Whiskey, I trusted you guys. I thought you were on the side of the angels, not promoting the Made-offs of this world.
“Yours,
“A concerned reader,
“P.S. Central Fund of Canada or James Turk’s Gold Money would be a more honest and safe recommendation.”
Many have pointed out that these funds are designed to track gold and they may not actually have any ownership or even potential ownership of what they track (though we like James Turk’s Gold Money a lot, too).
Let me be clear: an ETF is just a way to profit from gold’s rise, not to own gold. They’re only one part of the equation; private, personal, physical ownership is something both separate and vital.
But a Shooter wonders, “How can a poor person buy gold? Can it be bought over time? Tell me [because] I would like to get started if there is a way.”
You can certainly buy little bits of physical gold, but there is a monstrous premium.
As I write this an ounce of gold costs about $935 at the mouth of the mine and an actual 1-oz Krugerrand will run you about $50 over that…because that mining, transport, smelting and minting all cost money. So you can buy an ounce of gold for a little under $1000, about a 5% markup.
Gold Eagles come in half, quarter and one-tenth ounce denominations, but the premiums currently run at about 50%…or more. A tiny gram bar — just 0.035 oz — costs about $45…or $17 more than the $28 worth of gold in it, a 60% markup. Ouch.
So yes, a poor person can buy gold, but he’s going to pay dearly for the little bit he can afford at a time. What to do then…?
And as I was typing this up, I received this e-mail:
“Over the past two months I have been watching the market and reading as many articles on silver as I can find. I, like a lot of people, do not trust the government or the stock market. I was wondering what the advantages are of physically having coins or bullion as an investment over having stocks. I like the idea of it. Literally holding on to my investment, but am looking to get other opinions. My family all say I should just put my money into CD’s and money market accounts. But I still even question the longevity of those. My gut keeps telling me to go with silver.”
My gut agrees with yours. Gold is a fantastic medium for men such as Croesus, but then there’s silver for the rest of us.
There’s a premium on silver, too…but you still get a good amount for your money. And buying a few ounces here and there is actually within your grasp even if you only have a few fiat dollars to convert to real money at the end of the month.
The markup is usually worse with one-ounce rounds. As I write this you’d pay about $17 or $18 for a round that contains $13 of silver. Ten-ounce bars are beautiful and about $150 or so for the $130 of silver in them, certainly a better deal if you can manage it.
Your Whiskey Bar manager is rather used to poverty and has had to purchase his metals in very modest amounts. And as much as he loves gold he’s always leaned toward silver because it’s what he could more easily afford.
The folks at APMEX have always been there for me when I wanted to get affordable amounts of silver into my physical possession. If it’s little bits of physical gold and silver you want, you could give them a try. Just click here.
Regards,
Gary Gibson
Managing Editor, Whiskey & Gunpowder
“Heck, between 1999-2002, the British government sold a large amount of its national gold, nearly 395 tonnes (metric tons), for about $275 per ounce. The Bank of England used the proceeds to purchase (ahem) “high-yielding” assets, like bonds. I suppose it seemed like a good idea to somebody. But really. In hindsight, how dumb was that? The British used to fight wars for gold (remember the Boer War, anyone?) Now they’re selling gold to buy bonds? They used to hang people for lesser crimes.”
The person ultimately responsible for the above brilliant asset allaocation decision was then Chancellor of the Exchequer: none other than the current PM, Gordon Brown.
hey man, if I had of getting some I sure would like to…. Kathyrn at Kmartellmackenzie@yahoo.com.sg
Dear Mr. King, I will try my damndest to keep this blog as short and to the the point as possible,here’s hoping you will reply promptly ,and w/some real solid advice.approx 3 yrs. ago my mother of 86 yrs., and completely lucid and sharp as a tack sold the house that both her and myself,and my dad,until he passed away in 1996 had lived in since 1955. She decided to sell the property and dwelling about 2 yrs. ,after.She had ,had a living will drawn up along w/ a legal will ,both by a lawyer.She specifically left all her assets and belongings to both myself and my daugter as I am an only child. She and myself were not aware that my dad,back in 1955 hired a lawer, legally had my name and specific rules he set down about inheritance in the event he died first in the family.Mom was under the impression that when he passd ,she would be the sole beneficiary if and when she deciided to sell the house/prop.and would alo be able to keep all his personal belongings.He had specifically stated that half of the proceeds from the sale of the propert./house be given to me ,inc half of all his personal belongings.Amazingly to my suprise she was not furious over what he had done and wanted it this way so very long ago.After the sale of the prop./house and many of his personal bel;ongings(he was a machinist and woodworker and had many both hand and power tools.Moms health as of late has slightly deteriorated and I live in Colorado and her in Mass…I”M here on strict medical orders from some of the best specialists in their respective fields, and most practice at Mass. General hosp.in Mass After over 12 yrs. trying to cajole and litterly pry her into moving to Co.with me and my daughter,she told me to give up or she wouldn’t talk to either of us and would hang up if we called her on the phone.She assured both of us she was not lonely ,and although she loved us both dearly, she and her heart were in Mass. and she was determined to die there,and there was no need for us to feel guilty in any way.Anyway approx.a week ago I got up the nerve to bring up the possibility of a nursing home ,when and if her health deteriorated past the point where she could live alone and take care of all her own needs.Suprisingly she told me she had been pondering just that subject this last time she was hospitalized for what she described as a minor hernia.She always fibs to me when it comes to the seriousness of her hospital trips and many other expected ailments at her age.(THE PROBLEM ),mom has an appreciable nest egg built up and as I stated ,has left this remainder fom the sale of the house/prop.to both me and my daughter with me being the sole executor of my daughters part of the will.She is now 16 yrs. of age ,but no matter how much time I spend trying to teach her the value of a dollar ,the latest music c/d always takes precedence,mom tells me that it is totally my decision as to when to start giving her any of the proceeds as she is adamant about never have lived with us,negatting her the possibility of trying to instill some real old sensibile values, inc. titheing and running a household on a fixed budget.So she has totally left the responsibility up to me as to what I feel is the proper age and percentage of funds will be appropriate based on my sole judgement not hers .She has strongly suggested that I contact a financial expert such as yourself to come up with a plan to protect the inheritance from the waiting jaws of the nursing home when the day comes.Both her and I and a close intellectual friend of hers are aware that the law allows the nursing home to abscond with any funds that the prospective patient may have in the bank in cd’s or we believe treasury bonds etc.therefore she wants to transfer the funds as possibly a gift to be put either solely in my name or both my and my daughters name.this is obviously where you come in ,to advise us how to protect the funds from both the prospective nursing home and to inc. any federal or state capital gains taxes.You see, when the house /prop.was sold it was for less than 500k so at least @ the time we were below the legislated amount to pay any taxes on the sale of the prop./house and were told by the realtor(REMAX)that we were at the time free and clear of any capital gains taxes.Sooooo……..we now need some knowledgable information,both being completely ignorant of any laws that woul;d apply now.The other problem we face is that I’m 56 yrs.old and disabled ,up until now we have subsisted on the state for medicaid because we have absolutely no income ,not even the measly 300.oo the state awarded us as child support from my daughters mother . we were about to apply for the federal food stamp program,and I believe a state funded subsistance check for the poorest of our society,which I believe the acronym for the prog.is TANF of which I cannot remember what it stands forBeingof sound mind , but a very sickly body, I’m currently applying for social sec.disability and am being represented by the law firm of BINDER&BINDER whom have the highest sucess rate in the country in being successful in securing disability for their clients.I don’t suspect that getting s.s disability should have any bearing on the inheritance funds,as its a federal entitlement program and I paid in to it for over 35 yrs. unfortunately I was not working at the time of my back injury ,even though I was employed full time.Just my sorry luck that it was the weekend,the silliest part was that I was moving a box that couldnt have weighed any more than 30lbs.,and for 35 yrs.OF which 25 I was a master auomtive and electronics technician Iwas as strong as an ox.Fortunately my medical records back up the diagnosis and my physician has taken a personal liking and interest in me and works williingly and promptly with the firm that is representing me.Now I am faced with the dilemma as describrd in the text and desperately need your help and advice before I do the wrong thing and loose the inheritance that my dad worked his entire life for.if you have a set fee for helping folks in the position that I have found myself in please state it in your reply ,unfortunately I wll have to put it on one of my credit cards that charge an exorbitant amt.in interest. so try to go easy on me ,at least until ,with the best of luck I’m successful in ascertaining social sec.disability,which their representative had graciously told me will take a min. of 18mos. up to 3 years ,and she gave me a tip, all disability applicants are rejected the first time even with the best of repressentation.hopefully you will read this and show a bit of compassion and give us truly your best advice and homespun commonsense concerning this abberation of possible taxation……… sincerly, and with all my trust and good will……………Robin Paul Waldron…………..A.S.E.cert. mast. automotive & gas/diesel truck technician and master automotive and gas and diesel electronics technician……..retired member,SOCIETY OF AUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERS …….
[...] Read more from the original source: Gold Is Going to $3000: Get Some Physical Gold [...]
Byron King,
Are you concerned about the IMF plans to sell all or most of its gold?
Frank Daluiso