Hypercomplex Systems Will Fail Due to Scarcity of Energy and Credit
Nov 11th, 2009 | By James Howard Kunstler | Category: Economics, Featured
In The Long Emergency (2005, Atlantic Monthly Press), I said that we ought to expect the federal government to become increasingly impotent and ineffectual – that this would be a hallmark of the times. In fact, I said that any enterprise organized at the colossal scale would function poorly in years ahead, whether it was a government, a state university, a national chain retail company, or a giant midwestern farm. It is characteristic of the compressive contraction our society faces that giant hyper-complex systems will wobble and fail. We should expect this.
There are going to be a lot of disappointed people out there who will be suffering terrible losses and real pain in daily life. Societies don’t do well when the public falls into the broad despair that is the opposite of hope. That’s when the long knives and the tribal animosities come out and things get smashed.
Within the context of conventional party politics – the kind that has been baseline “normal” in the USA for a long time – we see this playing out in two factions that are increasingly out-of-touch with reality. The Obama government has made itself hostage to a toxic form of pretense and lying. In order to sustain the wish for “hope” – if not hope itself – the President and his White House advisors along with his cabinet appointments, are pretending that the historical forces of compressive contraction are not underway. They’re flat-out lying about the employment figures issued in the government’s name. They’re willfully ignoring the comprehensive bankruptcy gripping government at all levels. They refuse to bring the law to bear against “the malefactors of great wealth.” They appear to not understand the epochal energy scarcity problem the whole world faces, or its implications for industrial economies. Most of all, they persist in promoting the lie that this economy can return to the prior state of reckless debt accumulation (a.k.a “consumerism”) that has made us so ridiculous and unhealthy.
The trouble with self-delusion, either in a person or a society, is that reality doesn’t care what anybody believes, or what story they put out. Reality doesn’t “spin.” Reality does not have a self-image problem. Reality does not yield its workings to self-esteem management. These days, Americans don’t like reality very much because it won’t let them push it around. Reality is an implacable force and the only question for human beings in the face of it is: what will you do? In other words, it’s not really possible to manage reality, but you can certainly choose to manage your affairs within reality. We won’t do that because it’s too difficult. This harsh situation leaves the public increasingly with little more than bad feelings of discouragement and persecution
Reality unfolds emergently, and this ought to interest us. For instance, I have maintained for many years that we are approaching the twilight of the automobile age – and the implications of this for daily life in the USA are pretty large. For a long time, I had assumed that this change of circumstances would proceed from our problems with the oil supply. But reality is sly. It has thrown two new plot twists into the story lately. America’s romance with cars may not founder just on the fuel supply question. It now appears that our problems with capital are so severe that far fewer people will be able to borrow money from banks to buy cars at the rate, and in the way, that the system has been organized to depend on. Our problems with capital are also depriving us of the ability to pay to fix the hypercomplex system of county roads, interstate highways, and even city streets that make motoring possible. What will we do?
For now, a cashless government gives out cash-for-clunkers, which is basically a self-esteem building program designed to make the government feel better about itself because it is ostensibly taking 11-miles-per-gallon cars off the road and replacing them with 27-miles-per-gallon cars, thus forestalling scary problems with climate change. It’s dumb of course, but the failure of leadership is comprehensive. Even the elite environmentalists at the Aspen Institute are preoccupied with finding new “green” ways to keep all the cars running. They put zero effort into the idea of walkable communities, or restoring the railroad system, which will be the reality-based remedies for the car-dependency problem.
The extreme right is, if anything, even more childishly delusional. For them it comes down to “drill, baby, drill.” They know nothing about the geology of oil – they don’t even believe that the earth is more than six-thousand years old, meaning they don’t believe in geology, period – but they are inflamed with the faith of eight-year-old children that we must have a lot more oil in the ground because this is America and God loves us more than people in other parts of the planet so it must be there. As their disappointment mounts, their childish ideas will turn cruel and sadistic. They’ll seek to punish anybody who believes that the earth is more than six thousand years old. The catch is, if they get into power in the election cycles ahead, they’ll be impotent and ineffectual even at persecuting their enemies.
In the meantime, American life will just wind down, no matter what we believe. It won’t wind down to a complete stop. Its near-term destination is to lower levels of complexity and scale than what we’ve been used to for a long time. People will be able to drive fewer cars fewer miles. The roads will get worse. They’ll be worse in some places than others. There will be fewer jobs to go to and fewer things sold. People who live in communities scaled to the energy and capital realities of the years ahead are liable to be more comfortable. We’re surely going to have trouble with money. Households will drown in debt and lose all their savings. Money could be scarce or worthless. Credit will be scarcer.
Both factions of American political life indulge in the fiction of control. History is reality’s big brother. It is taking us someplace that we don’t want to go, so it will probably have to drag us there kicking and screaming. For starters, both reality and history will probably take us out to some woodshed of the national soul and beat the crap out of us. That could be a salutary thing, since the crap consists of all the lies we tell ourselves. Once we’re rid of all that, we may rediscover a few things left inside our collective identity that are worth regarding with real self-respect.
Regards,
James Howard Kunstler
November 11, 2009
[...] Hypercomplex Systems Will Fail Due to Scarcity of Energy and Credit [...]
Wow, with that title I thought we were going to get a little meat instead of the city mouse vs country mouse, left/right, inspired intellectual/deluded opposite view chatter.
But you are correct. The big systems are in trouble like the dollar and big American cities with all those dependent city mice.
This country mouse can heat the house with wood from the wood lot (oh, pollution horrors), grow food and herbs in the garden, raise fish and crayfish in the pond, hunt and kill wild geese, ducks, grouse, deer or even raise a pig, goat or beef critter. There is nothing like a freshly laid egg sans salmonella. Our kids make bread and pizza. Country mice can brew decent beer and make wine.
Yes we have to guard our farm, the city people still have money to buy vacation homes and the local Riff Raff will certainly lug off everything but the foundation given enough time.
I see t as city vs rural people and maybe even revolutionary war 2.0 but I pray not. We have enemies abroad as well. And so much debt. Get ready city mouse. My driveway is long, the guest list is very short and the dogs are ugly.
Interesting article, I agree with your assessment of reality. (Not that I have a choice, right? Ha ha.)
I didn’t like the subtle Christian bashing with the 6,000 year references. I’ve been in church all my life and have yet to meet a Christian who believes the earth is only 6,000 years old. Believing that God created the world and man does not mean you have to limit your beliefs.
Regardless, this was an excellent article, and I almost fell out of my chair laughing at the last paragraph. Keep it up! – Mike
In attempt to respect the W&G comment policy guidelines, I’ll be as courteous as possible in commenting on this aimless and hollow article. It’s got the end-of-energy myth, combined with the left/right paradigm play, along with the extreme right-wing, non-athiests-must-be-idiots montage. All this wrapped into one directionless diatribe where only the self-important author truly understands “reality” or can sort out fact from fiction.
Quick clue #1: We get it . . . trouble’s coming. But despair is optional. My guess is that it will felt most by those who put their “hope” in government and/or self-deluded authors.
Quick Clue #2: Anyone who looks for their self-respect from a “collective identity” doesn’t quite get it.
Question to the editors: How exactly did this piece make W&G?
Excellent article.
What does an energy crisis and heaven have in common?
The option to believe is totally yours.
But if it turns out to be for real, then the consequences of not acting are horrendous.
I read a lot of commentary on a daily basis and must say that this article mirrors my personal viewpoint in so many ways. What it does not touch on is how government will attempt to deal with the social unrest that is surely coming. Imagine the prison population rapidly doubling without the matching funds to deal with it. It will take vigilance and discipline to maintain our constitutional rights in the face of an encroaching police state and a growing segment of the population the cannot or will not abide by the rules of common decency. Remember the saying that “civilization is only three missed meals away from anarchy”.
Mr. Kunstler rails against big cars, big oil, big cities, big suburbs, consumerism, big farming, Big-Mart, fundamentalist religion, conservative politics, and big government, all the while whining about scarce oil, lack of energy, unavailable credit, breakdown of business services, a lack of common values, and loss of collective identity.
The big things he hates were once the small things he strives to create. Humanity will continue to expand in ways Mr. Kunstler alone cannot imagine.
Dear Robert: Terrific response, and that’s how most of us with land feel about it. I just wrote an article tearing apart that C-W favorite, “A Country Boy Can Survive.” I warned readers sweetly against attempting to remove livestock from under the noses of Great Pyrenees dogs and guard mules and donkeys in the second segment. The fellows who “hunt” by sitting in metal blinds shooting deer who come up to feed on corn have no notion what it is like to actually hunt in the woods–and they don’t seem to recognize that those woods belong to someone who is going to object. Most of the small game here in Texas is gone, prey of the fire ants. Please visit us over at http://www.thetexasring.com, where you wil find several of your favorite W&G writers, many of whom live in the country and work on becoming more self-sufficient. Some of you like my tales of ranch life, so…we bought another four Nubian does Sunday and penned them up with the herd of French Alpines. It was not love at first sight, although they appear to have reached detente. Today we decided they could do a little exploring, and let them out. Faith, our French Alpine Head Goat, was aghast. She rounded them up, shoved them back in the pen, and said, “NOW you may come out because this time I say so.” MacKenzie, Michelle, Precious, and Miss Daisy had a grand time gawking like a group of Kindergarteners at the zoo, staying close to Thunder, our big buck. Twilight comes on, and out of nowhere Michelle (the miniature donkey) appears, puts all of the goats back in the pen with their house, and leaves again. No, she didn’t shut the gate because it was secured. Isn’t that a riot? I know that donkeys in the field take guarding the stock very seriously, but who would have thought that Michelle would think that the new goats were her responsibility and should be shut up safely for the night?
I called her back up to the house and she munched six carrots serenely, clearly proud of herself but not thinking she had done anythig extraordinary. What is really funny is that Michelle was an impulse purchase while I was buying cattle. She used to live in a petting zoo, she drifted up to me because she likes people, and one look at those big eyes and I was lost. I stood there in the sleet trying to talk myself out of buying a small Jerusalem cross donkey until Charles finally looked at me lovingly and said, “Just buy the donkey!” So I did, and we love her–and losses to chickens have dropped sharply. Rccoons and skunks don’t find her hospitable. She was seen running a pack of coyotes off a couple of days ago, with Maggie (the head cow) and the rest of the girls in full charge behind her! No, city slickers will not fare well trying to use pastures as super markets. LBT
Word!
Dear Mark: As I recall, a very, very small number believe the earth was created on an October afternoon in 4004 B.C. All things are possible, but I don’t really think there are enough of them to have any political significance. Why do I comment on JHK’s mail? Because it is interesting and he never does. LBT
Dear Liberty Phile:
Your response had ME laughing appreciatively. Mr. Kunstler appears on W&G (and many other places) because he always stirs things up. Look at all the great replies thus far right here. Whether you love him or loathe him, JHK moves readers to write and editors and some authors really like that. I always squeal appreciatively when I have mail here or at thetexasring.com, even when I am called elitist scum!
Linda,
Glad I could give you a laugh! And even more glad to know that my rare late night keyboard e’opinion is appreciated. Consider me a moved reader.
)
I must admit, the one thing that Mr. Kunstler does continue to demonstrate is how fortunate W&G readers are to have writers like you.
The author’s contention seems to be that ’self delusion or perseption doesn’t drive reality’. Very astute, too bad this arguement contradicts his opening statement that society doesn’t do well when the public falls into the broad despair that is the opposite of hope. So which is it, a positive outlook can’t possibly uplift society because self delusion has no affect on reality, or…..broad despair will crush society because it drives reality? What?? The author is no philospher.
I love Mr. Kunstlers articles, and find him a witty and extremely entertaining author.
He is perceptive, but I generally take his predictions with more than a few grains of salt.
Peak Oil?
Could be, I really don’t know, but from what I see, there is still a lot of carbon in the ground left to squander.
Maybe when we get through all the natural gas and coal I will begin to worry more.
Sure things will change, but I doubt the long term change will be anywhere near what Kunstler foresees (I don’t know exactly what this would be, but it seems to be some sort of a mid 1800’s Yankee farming village populated with educated atheists…does not sound bad, just seems unlikely)
Big stuff is here to stay, although it may be in a much slimmer form.
I doubt power and human greed will easily roll over and die.
On big thing leaves, another will take its place.
I don’t care for the idea, but increased global government seems a likely outcome to me.
Probably take a few more wars and a lot of human tears to get there.
Not to say that folks won’t have their spinach patches, and be able to elect people with the same accent to decide what to re-name the streets in the town…
I just think the actual power is consolidating, and has been for some time.
Jim Rich November 14,2009 5:07 pm:
Your essay on Hypercomplex Systems shows you are indeed a true philosopher. Until humankind knows Reality we will continue to attempt to manage it. Bits and pieces of Reality have been given down thru the centuries and I feel you have contributed some of those pieces but since we humans can handle so little Reality whose to know which bits are indeed Truth or Reality. One sign would be that only Reality can be proven. this leaves out all belief systems until they are proven at which point they are no longer mere beliefs. So how do we go about proving Reality ? It is certaintly NOT by searching for Reality which searching actually prevents the Realization of Reality by projecting Reality into the future. The question is how can we end the search so that Reality can Reveal Itself since we humans all are hardwired for the search and not at all for the finding of Reality ? Are various religions claim to be revealers of Reality or Truth but then why do we call religions “Beliefs” which not being provable create so much conflict ,violence ,.and suffering . Obviously the god commonly believed in is not coincident with Reality. There is no God higher than Reality Itself and if we are destroying the earth and killing each other searching for Reality [or God]
our only hope is for at least a signifant number of us to locate Reality or God. This does involve, as Mr. Kunstler indicates, having Reality beat the crap [delusions] out of us individually and collectively. However there is one delusion ,the “ROOT” delusion that Mr. Kunstler did not mention – the delusion the ego makes in all of us ,telling us our bodies are who we are [thus the separate self sense]. In Reality there is no individual or collective identity found . And yes Mr Kunstler , SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL and necessary. The statements in this comment come from the Premier revealer of Reality .Further statements can be accessed at adidam.org .
First, my congratulations to Mr. Kunstler. He knows the difference between flounder, a fish, and founder, to run your ship aground. It shows careful thinking, which these days is in short supply.
Second, I’ve been following Mr. K for a couple of years now. Read the books. Listened to the K-cast. I’ve come to understand that money, whether fiat, species, debt, what-have-you, is a claim on future labor or useful work. On the downside of Hubbert’s Curve you can issue all the money you want at any interest rate you want. What you have to look forward to are diminishing returns on that claim. And it’s not just the hydrocarbons. It’s also copper ores, uranium, fresh water, topsoil, you name it. Much of the entire resource base is in decline. Deal with it or deny it, contraction is inevitable. American exceptionalism has come to mean that we as a society are exceptionally naive.
Dear Liberty Phile:
Delighted laughter. Thanks for the compliment–and y’all come on over to the Texas Ring and play. I’m a serious night owl and so is Gary. Linda
Dear Dennisonschili:
I can never understand why Mr. Kunstler doesn’t play with his reader mail because he gets such good stuff. I AM a Philosopher (it says so on my University of Hawaii diploma, at least), as well as elitist scum (my detractors say), and I do not concern myself with society as a whole, how high is up, when the earth was created, and similar matters I have no power over or cannot document. I work at putting together small oases of love, laughter, and self-sufficiency and think others should be responsible similarly for their own security and happiness. No social conscience at all! Utopia on any sort of scale always fails because there are always those who will not work and those who want to order the behavior of others. There are far too many people and far too little cohesiveness of beliefs to have any serious hope of cleaning up the disastrous mess Statist policies and Balkanization have wrought. “Every family for itself” will not change that, but it does allow those so inclined to pull back into reasonable serenity. A fellow philosophy student once referred to mine scathingly as “the most brilliant mind of the Eighteenth century.” I still think that a lovely compliment. Life is about CHOICES and their consequences. The article I’m writing this afternoon (this is my version of a coffee break) demonstrates that an investment of under $5,000, very modest amounts of work, and a very few dollars a day can produce all the beef, poultry, milk, cream, eggs, and butter two families could use, and most of their vegetable needs, as well. The problem is city, county, and state regulations forbid keeping a dozen chickens, a goat, a pair of steers, and a milk cow in your back yard! Solution? Look at your lives and see if you can move outside their spheres of control. What America needs is the return of the yeoman farmer, a thesis which will give the Statists spasms. It is much harder to control a man who produces his own food. Your turn! Philosophize away. Cordially, Linda Brady Trayhnham
Dear Black Arrow:
Very nice, sir. How about a future that is pre-Industrial Revolution?! Throughout history there have been slaves, free men, merchants, landed gentry, kings, and politicians. Today you can be a wage slave or live on the welfare plantation, establish a free hold, afford a big country place, be one of the hereditary wealthy (or lucky in sports or invent the home computer), or go into politics. Far too many fall in the first and last classes. The term “share croppers” evokes horror, but I think the time is coming when being allowed to keep half of what a man raises with someone else’s cattle, seed, chickens, and land will be thought very desirable. Sorry, but the capital outlay is too great now for a decent ROI on the land and machinery. Hmmm…let me play with that idea. There may yet be something in it. Oddly enough, many of the old ways work splendidly. Kunstler holds that in 15 years most younger people will have to work and live in the country. I hold that most of them won’t know enough to be worth what they eat, and a fine idea would be to plan ahead and acquire some skills and knowledge. Ideas? Linda Brady Traynham
Dear Mr. Rich:
Charles suggests you change your brand of cough syrup, but he’s a rough, hairy, very pragmatic and achieving sailor. I’m a Southern lady, so I don’t say things like that. There are different levels of “reality,” and the one we should be focusing on at present involves securing our individual supply lines. Logistics are a lovely thing; they win battles and ensure that the larder is not bare. “Armies fight only occasionally but they eat every day.” The same can be said of families. Philosophy of the brand you favor is a luxury. LBT