Juggling Act
The great Anniversary Iranian Celebration–at least thus far–has had all the excitement of watching Geraldo. Nope…nothing in the basement.
It was as enthralling as Dr. Zawi Hawass opening the empty tomb, without the good doctor’s charm.
We already knew about the 20% enrichment capability, and 20% is a long way from what it takes to make enriched, satisfying noises and distinctive cloud formations. At present–again, “at present”–the celebration is precisely what I expected: a big fizzle which holds us as riveted as a speech by Castro, Chavez, or Obama.
We can read this one of three ways: that the A-man took himself seriously and is going to be so embarrassed by world opinion that he lashes out from vanity…or that he was just messing with our heads seeing if he could provoke an attack or disarm us mentally…or he’ll fling warheads around next week, once we’ve lowered our guard.
How many nukes would this chucklehead chuck if Ahmadinejad could chuck nukes? Probably all he had. How very frustrating not (apparently) to have enough to hit the Great Satan and Israel simultaneously. I’ll offer him a piece of advice, though: when you get the nerve and the hardware simultaneously, Mr. Ahmadinejad, strike the USA and the Vatican. It will be a great deal safer than thinking you can knock out all Israel will throw at you given a good excuse.
Israel already has ample reason.
Israel has more than that, beginning with a strong sense of survival and a solid year of Obama and Hillary siding with their (Israel’s) enemies. One of the few constraints on Israel for decades has been abiding by the wishes of its closest ally, Heaven help it. Time and again all outside parties including supposed allies have demanded that Isael act to its tactical and economic disadvantage. Give back territory I won fair and square when the other side attacked?! I think not. Give up part of my nation in an attempt to appease enemies? Nonsense. Restrict family growth in favor of Hamas, which is already being given millions by Clintonista, Congress, and Obama? Not in this lifetime, if I were in control, and I’m not even Jewish nor have I lived in combat conditions all my life. I wouldn’t even worry about collateral damage if my nation were attacked by ground forces and we flung the invaders back over their borders for a loss of ten. Football is our national game, and if we have to retake Pork Chop Hill several times we will. I think the Israelis are tougher than we are, and they are certainly playing on a much smaller field.
Yes, Netanyahu has a precarious coalition, but I’m moderately certain that the appeasement crowd isn’t a gaggle of cowards, just misguided; there is no diplomatic solution to the problem and never has been. Anyone expecting another Masada would be wise to find a bunker-buster-proof cave. For nearly sixty-five years Israelis have protected their tiny toehold. Every citizen is a soldier, and if we had any sense we’d be importing them (even chosen at random) as security experts. In my quaint hawkish way I think it is long past time to consider how much further it is safe to back Israel into untenable corners. It could just be that the Germans weren’t the only ones who ever considered lebensraum.
A big hunk of Jordan is part of historical Israel, and I have roundabout reason to suppose that the King of Jordan has long considered the possibility that Israel might, ah, “request” a bunch of it back. My husband was an advisor to the King for a while, and John remained vehemently anti-Israeli until his death. Of course I never questioned him about his military activities, and he certainly never told me one single thing I shouldn’t know. John was as cerebral and practical as they come, and I have never supposed that he was captivated by the hospitality his host showed and the friendliness of the population. My purely amateur conclusion is that Jordan frets frequently about what Israel may do and the effect that would have on tourism and the throne.
The Pentagon may have intended for the cessation of win-hold-win to be a threat to Congress over budget cuts, but possibly some country less aware politically might conclude that Iraq and Afghanistan count as the one war per customer and it is safe to try a little encroachment elsewhere. What do we do if Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and/or Egypt decide to go play alongside the Palestinians? Say, “Sorry, we’re committed to only fighting one war at a time?” Respond, “In this rare instance we’ll make an exception” or pull all our troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan? No good can come from the Generals, Congress, and the President telling the world that we are tapped out financially and militarily.
Metals are up strongly and the DOW was up a tepid hundred the last time I looked which may reflect an attitude of, “Thank goodness that threat is over and we can get back to business as usual.” If so, the market reaction is a very short-sighted attitude. All calm today means is that thus far Amahdinejad did not strike at the “arrogant” West. I’m more inclined to think all four metals I track being up is indicative of a feeling that just because this firecracker fizzled doesn’t mean we shouldn’t pay attention.
We need to go find our version of Krupp to follow, I think. We can’t just track Remington, Winchester, and Federal because of the run on sporting- and hand guns and ammo for the last eighteen months. A contact on the West coast was pleased to be able to pick up a hundred rounds recently, the shortage is that bad. To those who don’t shoot a hundred rounds of nine mil or a “brick” of 500 .22 shells probably sounds like a lifetime supply or enough to stage your own version of Waco, but it really isn’t. Four friends plinking at targets could go through that amount in less than half an hour.
What we want to know is how those making NATO rounds (which can be fired using an assortment of long guns) and tanks are doing. With the increasing number of “preppers” even the MRE isn’t a good measure of military preparedness any more…General Dynamics is almost certainly a good tell-tale. Maybe chart just the Friday close on Martin Marietta, DuPont, and Bell Helicopter?
MDC suggests the turbine engines used in helicopters, tanks, and other widgets made by Lycoming–which may be affiliated with Bell, now–could prove interesting. Avco, Vickers, Pantex, BSA, maybe keep an eye on exports from Israeli Arms…they hold the patents on Uzi and the practice rounds for 120mm, 30mm armor piercing, interesting things like that. Krupp, which has been in business since the 1500s, is still manufacturing munitions and chemicals and has introduced a 17.5 cm weapon recently. I didn’t put Krupp at the top of the list because investments overseas might be a little dicey if we end up in WWIII.
Signature chuckle…you don’t expect sweet little old ladies to while away rainy afternoons attempting to work out a reasonable equivalent of Krupp as an investment, do you? There are always wars somewhere, and the Keynesian solution when all else fails is a great big war. The possibility of WWIII as a solution to the crash of the dollar…or the Chinese economy…or even Japan has been bruited about. The Middle East is a perennial running sore but it isn’t the only danger. The stakes went up when the Pentagon announced the end of the philosophy of attempting to fight two wars simultaneously, known as “win-hold-win.” Anything which causes our numerous enemies to doubt our will or our ability to wage war increases the chances of conflict.
The premise for over half a century has been that the “military-industrial complex” foments war for economic gain. We’re always interested in economic gain, although we’d prefer ours to come from a new extraction method for shale oil or foreseeing that we should get out of buggy whips and in to pneumatic tires, or short whale oil and go long LPG. I don’t buy stocks on “hunches,” but I definitely believe in investigating sectors for potential growth or signals of future events on internal nudges. So…don’t count “I’m a dinner jacket” out because he didn’t cause a gruesome mess today, but start thinking like a merchant of death far afield. If you had influence and reason to believe widespread, long-term hostilities were on the docket, what would you invest in and what would you collect?
Remember what was in short supply and/or rationed during WWII: tires, gasoline, butter, clothing, meat, cooking oil…tires would be a good bet again because they aren’t made out of rubber from Malaysia any more. Worse, they are made out of oil, and most of them are made overseas. China just might not be on our side during WWIII. We Americans have a good stockpile of automobiles if the factories are converted again to produce automatic weapons, but if you might consider picking up a set of the things that need replacing periodically, such as points, plugs, condensers, filters, belts, hoses, engine oil, power steering fluid, starter, alternator, and so forth. If we’re thinking of investments, I might talk myself into some Good Year, etc., particularly since the most popular sizes of tires more than doubled in price following Obama’s imposition of an enormous tariff.
Interesting, isn’t it, how what we want for our own personal use is probably what the nation will need if we conscript grannies and teenagers to fight an even bigger war? Shades of “What’s good for General Bullmoose is good for the country.”
Regards,
Linda Brady Traynham
February 17, 2010
Linda Brady Traynham
Linda Brady Traynham is a former editor and analytical project report writer and is now a Whiskey & Gunpowder field correspondent on a ranch in the Republic of Texas. She studied Counseling at Boston University and got her Masters degree in Philosophy from the University of Hawaii.
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Too bad you don’t take your own advice…you should have spent the money on tires (don’t forget weather rot) than using precious funds on useless autos that would not even rate as trade goods ? For all you have spent , and your “treasures” don’t even run, not to mention the fact that you have a difficult time acquiring parts (that would be in the future-when you can’t even buy, sell or trade without the mark of the beast) – what is your gain ? For all the goods you have hoarded and the “cheep cheap” storage you purchased, the weather, weevils, etc. have destroyed your children’s inheritance. What did that accomplish ? Can;t wait to hear this — can’t wait to address other issues as well !
Everyone should have a hobby. Fortunately, I can afford mine.
http://www.archive.org/details.....1942_FIXED
A handy reference for your collection. It shows we can adapt and overcome;-)
Walt, dear…you and I have. As for others who shall remain nameless, who can tell?
Hugs, Linda
p.s. Read what I said carefully and think about it! LBT
Exactly Linda, I have 3 well used Jags myself. Do I drive them and use them every day? Nope. This is what my Ford F 150 4 wheel drive pickup is for. You are so correct, everyone needs a hobby that they can enjoy and learn from. Have you noticed that people who are passionate about their car hobbies have no time or inclination to make war or pick fights or do drugs or be alcoholics? Do well adjusted kids who may not be athletic superstars enjoy and learn from hobbies? Of course they do. Some of America’s best inventions and discoveries have come from people who played around with mechanical things, think of Henry Ford, Massey as in Massey Harris farm equipment and thousands of other American and Canadian inventors whom Japan, Russia and China among others outright copied the designs. Amazingly, even though the copies are near duplicates, the products still are not as good as the originals. For example, Vise Grip pliers, they are still the best even though the copies look the same, the materials and manufacture processses are inferior to the original. CanadaNorth
Hi Linda, is sidagong mocking your fine collection of quality Jaguars? This is contemptuous ! I know they are among your most important possessions and dear to your heart! And run? Well, Jag owners know ya need two; one to drive and one to fix! But this is a small price to pay. And I am not talking about the TATA or Ford Jaguars either! They have been refined so well they no longer have personalities. No, they don’t break down, catch fire, (threaten to) leave you stranded, which a Jag has only done once to me.
And what should we leave to our children? Money? All I have seen from inheritance is misery and spoiled brats! Teach your children while alive! Value of money and a good work ethic. Belief in ones self and in one’s God (whomever he or she may be). Best gift that can be given. If they don’t take on the ambition to learn, shame on them!
I have been acquiring some fine firearms lately. A Python, Anaconda, S&W Model 29, a Glock, and my most recent purchase, two-AK47s. Ammo is a tough nut but I managed to buy 2,500 rounds for the AKs’ at less than two-bits apiece. Always wanted an M-14 or the civilian equivalent, the M1a. $1,800.00 is hard to justify from the Springfield Armory. Best rifle I ever shot but the experts say an AR-15 (Matty-Matel) is a better gun and for half the money! Right now, I’ll settle for the weapon of choice throughout the world. BTW, Mr. Kalashnikov makes some fine Vodka too. Don’t know if you can buy it in the US, but plenty here in Kazakhstan.
Keep up the good work, PTL & pass the ammunition!
Indeed. Duly noted. I thank you kindly, Ma’am.
Peace be unto you and all your household.
V/R,
WJB
“I am not sure what weapons will be used during World War III, but the 4th World War will be fought with sticks and stones.” Albert Einstein
we need to just figure out how to get along with each other…..
Gentlemen….and I DO mean “gentlemen:”
I hope some day Walt, OWD, and CN, that you are able to visit us at the ranch and see the car collection, swap stories of life overseas, and discuss either the still-pending economic crash or the aftermath, as appropriate. OWD, if you can get your babies back we’d love to see those, too! For the record, the only Jag-u-ar which can NOT be driven is the one missing all keys. We have to load her on our car-hauler (ROFL…of COURSE we have one, although it only carries one; don’t go thinking we have one of the giant dudes that totes 11) and take her to the nearest dealer 90 miles away to have the ignition replaced. Most are not registered and insured, an entirely different thing from not running. All are in splendid condition, although not “restored,” other than the Mark X which will get reupholstered in leather one of these days at surprisingly modest cost, or so $1400 for a custom job on a right-hand-drive vehicle seems to me. The Dime doesn’t need a thing, either, nor does the 731i; one of the Mercedes diesels we drive is down temporarily while we replace a line from the transmission to the oil cooler in the radiator. Chuckle…my father was another collector and known for always selling his jewels for more than he paid for them. In 20 years or so I expect the kids will do well on ours–or may even have come to appreciate true luxury and automotive excellence!. Japanese. Faugh. How right you are, CN, that those who build, preserve, innovate, and contrive solutions lead more serene and fulfilling lives. One of the essential things we teach our children is that they are responsible for making their own ways in life–which doesn’t mean we don’t help them and aren’t there in times of crisis. Aren’t you glad we aren’t the parents of Nicky and Paris Hilton or Missy Hyatt?! Proof positive that money does not buy happiness or meaningfu lives. Far too many expect to begin with what it took their parents lifetimes to achieve. Group hug, guys. Linda
Linda you seem not to understand the mind of the radical Islamist, your suicide bomber. Ahmadinejad is such a fanatic. He would see the entire country of Iran go up in a series of bright flashes. To do major damage to Israel would be enough for him. He could not care less about the consequences.He would carry his entire country into the Muslem belief of the next world.
Dear BRH: I DO understand. The difference is that I think Ahmadinejad wants to sell himself more dearly than peasant muscle or worthless females strapped into exploding jackets. Not content with “pleasing Allah,” i suspect he wants a big footnote in history. Thanks for writing. I have to get back to sorting out different reports that suggest the ‘plane crash in Austin, today, hit precisely the target it was aimed at. Very little damage, but if the “suicide” note going around is a forgery it is well done and was put together very quickly. Regards, Linda
[...] Juggling Act [...]
Dear pwp:
Nice quote, and quite likely true.The problem is that between those who want to destroy and those determined to rule and oppress the rest of us aren’t going to do well sounding like Mr. Rogers. I have always been a fan of laissez faire. Perhaps we could all learn to leave each other alone. Probably not, unfortunately…and I don’t have a single useful idea what to do about it. Thanks for writing. LBT
I don’t think Mr. Amadine-jihad is more than a front man for the religious oligarchs that run Iran. (BTW, I seem to remember a news report saying that the mullahs own the banking system.) This is the real “power behind the throne” as Goldman-Sachs, et al are in the USA. Getting involved in a major war will do no good for our economy or people, yet some folks still think that it was the solution to the Great Depression. Our country is overstretched militarily and economically, even Mr. Teleprompter won’t be able to speechify his way out of this one. This is one reason we aren’t closing unneeded military bases. The effect of bringing home a large number of war-trained young people and putting them on the unemployment line would threaten the elites hold on the country in short order. The busybodies and do-gooders have backed themselves and us into a corner. The next few years will be an interesting time in our history to say the least.
Dear Steady Steve:
I certainly agraee that many of the problems over the last 500 years came from the machinations of big banking families/houses, and that Keynesians aid and abet them. However, even given the inroads gangs have made in our military forces, I do not agree that “bringing home a large number of war-trained young people and putting them on the unemployment line would threaten the elites’ hold on the country in short order.” Every organization has bad apples, but I think we can trust the preponderance of those who volunteered to serve in our military not to run amok if they “lose their jobs.” Somebody who knows more about the current military system weigh in, please. For all of my long life involved with the military, the upper echelons were “fired” only through an RIF (Reduction in Forces), and being released “for the good of the service” was a polite way to say “We can’t figure out a reason to send you to prison at Ft. Leavenworth, but you’re a trouble-maker who has to go.” Go check out Oath Keepers, an organization of military and LE with a list of ten unlawful orders they will not follow. I can be as naive as anyone, but I can’t see roving gangs of former military. Long ago the Wizard of Id had a superb Sunday strip. Several frames of a soldier at his destructive work. He gets out and becomes a successful road agent. His wife exclaims, “Oh, darling! You’ve learned a trade!”
I did not mean to imply that ex-military would ‘run amuck’. Just that they would spot the B.S. being foisted on the general public for the propaganda it is. And thank God for Oath Keepers and other such organizations.
There is a good reason that our current Secratary of Homeland Security believes that ex-military (especially returning vets), Constitutionalists, etc. are more of a threat than the Jihadists. They are certainly a political threat to the O-Commies because they just won’t see things the ‘right way’ or understand BHO is here to save us from all those pesky freedoms and responsibilites. This shows the elites know they can’t push too far without a result they will regret. I personally know some ex-military including relatives. Add to this that I hold a Merchant Mariners License and would be drafted in time of general war. The consensus among the former soldiers, airmen and sailors I know is they are surprised the population has not broken out in armed rebellion against the government. yet !! No wonder the elites are pushing for as much control as they can get. The next couple of national elections will be a referendum on who we are as a nation.
Dear Steve:
Thanks for the explanation. Do you suppose people felt this way in 1859? Afraid of their government and afraid of what might happen if everyone doesn’t keep a cool head? MDC and I don’t leave the ranch much and we aren’t “social,” so about all I hear first hand is people talking in grocery stores, feed stores, and Sam’s Club. From that and what I read the various moods in this country are all getting darker and uglier. People in general seem frightened and angry. Citi (bank) has announced that effective 21 April 2010 it “reserves the right” to put a 7-day hold on withdrawals from CHECKING accounts. Citi says this announcement was sent nationwide “by accident” and the policy will only be in effect in Texas. Interesting, no matter what the truth is. I’m not blowing hot and cold on you, readers…I’m just saying it behooves all of us to be careful what we say, where. Don’t back down on your principles but don’t take any foolish chances, okay? Any ship, any ocean?! Hugs, Linda