Whiskey and Gunpowder Reports and Articles on Business
Can GM Be Saved? – 11/15/2005
by Mike Shedlock “In the following article, Mish wonders if GM can be 'saved.' GM is at a 52-week low, its bonds are being smashed, and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. is not happy about its pension funding.”
The Saga at Delphi – 10/18/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Auto parts supplier Delphi went bankrupt, as many expected. Is this a big deal and if so for whom? What are the implications? What about General Motors? Is GM at risk too? Lots of people were commenting on this story, but as always, Mish finds an angle that others miss.”
Personal Bankrupcies Soar – 10/12/2005
by Mike Shedlock “In the following discussion, Mish takes a look at soaring bankruptcies. Is Katrina to blame? How about Rita? What happens down the road? Are more bankruptcies coming? What role does the credit card industry play in all of this?”
Focus on Autos – 10/11/2005
by Mike Shedlock “In the following discussion, Mish takes a look at the state of U.S. auto manufacturing, notably GM and Ford. Are they on the right track? What are all the problems at GM and are they solvable?” Whiskey and Gunpowder Reports and Articles on China
The Fall of China...And What It Means for America – 12/10/2005
by Chris Mayer “Here's the first Weekend Whiskey! I've got a couple exciting things for you today, so please read the whole thing and shoot me an e-mail with any opinions or complaints about this latest addition to the Whiskey repertoire...what better way to inaugurate our new shot than an essay from our buddy Chris Mayer."
Thoughts on the RMB Repeg – 07/25/2005
by Mike Shedlock “OK, so China moved to a ‘managed floating exchange rate regime’ against a ‘basket of currencies,’ with an initial adjustment of 2% against the U.S. dollar that is ‘allowed to float within a band of +/-0.3%.’"
A Beautiful Mistake – 07/22/2005
by Byron King “We did not know that the government of China had allowed, on a limited basis, its citizens to own the mineral rights to oil under their lands. So it came as news to us that the government of China had recently seized several thousand oil wells from private owners in a province west of Beijing.” Whiskey and Gunowder Reports and Articles on Deflation
Inflationists Respond – 07/21/2005
Mike Shedlock “I am not sure who Blumen is referring to, but I laid out a concise, multipoint discussion that included the debt overhang but certainly did not stop there. Furthermore, I agree that debt can be inflated away, and I’ve even stated how: The Fed prints money like mad, and Congress gives money away at the expense of creditors, to the benefit of debtors.”
The Kondratieff Cycle – 07/13/2005
by Mike Shedlock “I added the colored highlights in blue, as well as my thoughts as to where we are with a red arrow. The terms in blue are the ones I prefer, but they differ slightly from the original theory. The exact terms are not that important, but the underlying theory is.”
The Deflation Debate Heats Up – 07/01/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Here's a nice one from Mish. He throws down the gauntlet (again) in the great ‘flation’ debate...now there's a whole box of prime beef on the line...”
Inflation Touching Sentiments – 06/20/2005
by Mike Shedlock “I keep getting e-mail responses to my articles telling me why I am wrong about deflation. I also keep seeing posts, like the following one, explaining why inflation is inevitable. This recent post from ‘Wendy’ on The Motley Fool is typical:”
Same Data/Different Interpretation – 06/03/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Here's the latest Mish missive. He tackles the seemingly eternal - and elusive -"flation" debate. He's a stolid deflationist, as you'll see. And he makes a very compelling case. You'll see how Keynes was wrong about almost everything right before you read about Mish's gentleman's wager with a prominent hyperinflationist for a styrofoam box filled with grade-A raw meat...” Whiskey and Gunpowder Reports and Articles on Education
The Education Gap – 11/07/2005
by Mike Shedlock “In the following article, Mish discusses the growing 'education gap.' Is the United States turning out enough scientists and engineers relative to China and India, or have we taken a step back?” Whiskey and Gunpowder Reports and Articles on the Federal Reserve
Bernanke's Looming Emergencies – 11/30/2005
by Dan Denning “Here's Dan Denning with a cheery essay on our economic future under Bernanke. Whiskey readers with us from the beginning will remember that we launched this dainty little e-letter off Dan's newsletter, Strategic Investment.”
A Roadmap to Financial Ruin! – 11/23/2005
by Dr. Marc Faber “It is one of my most cherished goals in life to someday pay a visit to the offices of Dr. Marc Faber in Chiangmai. If I can tear myself away from one the world's great natural wonders-beautiful Thai women-I'm sure to be party to an accurate preview of the world's economic and monetary future.”
Bank Lending Practices – 11/14/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Oh Lawdy, Mish is at it again. Now he investigates bank lending practices. The Fed has recently harped for banks to tighten lending standard. Have they? Not surprisingly, Mish says, 'No way.' So does Mish have any proof? If so, what are the implications?”
Ben Bernanke, “Inflation Fighters” – 10/17/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Who will be the next Fed Chairman? The two co-favorites seem to be Ben Bernanke, the White House economic adviser, and Martin Feldstein, Harvard economist and president of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Who will get the nod? Some suggest Ben Bernanke will get the nod as an 'inflation fighter'."
The Wisdom of Richard Fisher – 10/06/2005
by Mike Shedlock “In the following discussion, Mish takes a look at what Fed Governor Richard Fisher yaps about. Does he make any sense? Are interest rates headed higher, and how do his comments compare with those of Ben Bernanke?”
A Gathering of the World’s Most Dangerous Economic Minds – 08/30/2005
by Chris Mayer “The 29th Annual economic symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City began Thursday night in Jackson Hole, Wyo. This is a highly exclusive group of people; entrance is by invitation only. There are only about 100 attendees. I like to call it a Gathering of the World's Most Dangerous Economic Minds."
Stupid Comments by the Fed (And Others, Too) – 06/09/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Quite literally, this was an amazing week for stupid comments by Fed officials, spokesmen for the California Building Industry Association, former Fed officials, spokesmen for the U.S. Army, spokesmen for banks, and investment clubs.” Whiskey and Gunpowder Reports and Articles on Gold
Oil, Gold, and New Ways to Profit – 12/18/2005
by Dan Denning “Here's your weekend Whiskey. Below, Dan Denning analyzes the ratio between the price of crude and gold. As you might expect, he sees the price of both of those material assets rising over the long term. But what's that mean for the dollar - and what's the dollar got to do with the battle of Bastogne?”
Why Has Gold Been Soaring Lately? – 09/22/2005
by Mike Shedlock “In the following discussion, Mike Shedlock takes a look at why gold has started to soar of late. Mish provides a short version as well as a detailed longer version for those who want to know what is really happening behind the scenes...”
Gold’s Honest Discipline – 08/16/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Following is Part 1 in a series of articles by Mike Shedlock on money supply, gold, the definition of money, and other related topics. There is no set time frame for these articles, but please be sure to follow along as Mish attempts to wrestle with these serious issues.” Whiskey and Gunpowder Reports and Articles on Housing
Time to Buy Foreclosures? - 02/01/2006
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish takes a look at another aspect of housing. Home foreclosures are rising as much as sixfold. Can you get a good deal? MSN Real Estate is suggesting now is the best time in years to buy foreclosure homes. Is it?
$312 Million For This? - 01/18/2006
By Mike Shedlock "Mish just cannot seem to get away from housing. Then again, housing seems to be a slightly large segment of the economy.Everyone is fascinated by it. After all, 50% of the jobs in this recovery have been directly related to housing. This article is a bit different, however. Mish is now taking a good hard look, with satellite pictures to boot, at land prices that some of the homebuilders are paying for flat desert, miles from anywhere."
Housing Peaks in Fresno (and Other Places) – 12/06/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Mish emphatically claims housing has peaked. Has it? Some recent reports say Mish is wrong and we glide into a plateau. Are national averages and year-over-year gains the way to look at it, or is there more behind the manic ‘Mish Madness’? In this article, he takes a good, hard look at Fresno, Calif.”
Stated Income Fraud – 12/05/2005
by Mike Shedlock “In the following article, Mish attacks his favorite subject: housing.
How much fraud is there and what does it mean? What about stated income loans?
Mish has some good sources, so don't just take his word for it -- read what a national mortgage broker has to say about fraud in the industry.”
Subprime Lender Cutting Jobs – 11/28/2005
by Mike Shedlock “In the following article, Mish discusses still more evidence that housing has peaked. What say the experts, anyway? Mish offers up a slew of opinions from both sides. The newest ominous evidence, however, is a key subprime lender cutting 10% of its work force. What about credit lending? How easy is that?”
Housing Evidence – 10/28/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Following is the second of Mish's two-part series on housing. Recent data shows a bounce in mortgage applications. Are housing bears about to be blown out of the water once again? What are the Toll Brothers telling The New York Times? What does the overall evidence suggest?”
Can’t Lose vs. Cashing Out – 10/25/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Following is Part 1 of a two-part series on housing. Part 1, entitled "Can't Lose vs. Cashing Out," addresses what professionals are doing versus what amateurs are saying. The difference is staggering.”
Will the Housing Bubble Fizzle or Pop? – 10/04/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Mish explores the question whether the housing bubble will fizzle or pop. Mish also takes a look at the consensus view that a soft landing is likely both in the United States and the United Kingdom. Are the coastal markets all we really have to worry about?”
Are You Missing The Real Estate Boom? (Part 2 of 2) – 08/23/2005
by Mike Shedlock “A lot of mutual funds would have had to dump amazingly large holdings of Fannie Mae if it was delisted. They would not be happy about it either. Is it remotely possible this at all influenced Moody's decision?”
Are You Missing The Real Estate Boom? (Part 1 of 2) – 08/18/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Mike Shedlock takes a look at lending practices and fraud in the real estate business. He even has a national mortgage broker willing to speak on the record about some of the fraud that he has seen. Right now, no one cares. Rest assured that nearly everyone will care when this trash heap explodes.”
U.K./U.S. Housing and Upcoming Liquidity Trap – 07/08/2005
by Mike Shedlock “A June 28 Reuters article reports that Wilson Bowden, Britain's fifth biggest house builder, sees a job threat to the housing market:”
The New American Feudalism – 06/28/2005
by Jim Amrhien “A Whiskey and Gunpowder reader and friend of mine recently said to me that although he enjoys the column immensely, he often wishes that we'd offer some kind of actionable advice along with our missives. “
Exceptional Conditions, and The Housing Bubble/Point-Counterpoint – 06/14/2005
by Mike Shedlock “What happens when ‘exceptional conditions’ become the norm? I am sure that question is on the minds of European readers tuned into the Mish blog. Let's take a look. Italy and Portugal faced EU wrath over their deficits. Italy is supposedly in a ‘soft recession.’ Will that condition become exceptional if it becomes a ‘hard recession’?” Whiskey and Gunpowder Reports and Articles on Hurricane Katrina
The City That “Fair” Forgot – 09/19/2005
by Jim Amrhein “ONCE AGAIN, September finds our nation sifting through the rubble, death, and carnage of a great catastrophe. A mighty hurricane has drowned New Orleans in what will surely prove to be the nation's most devastating disaster.”
The Train They Call the City of New Orleans (Part 2) – 09/06/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Mike 'Mish' Shedlock takes a good hard look at the good, the bad, the ugly, and the stupid about Hurricane Katrina and the devastation it caused in New Orleans and elsewhere. Part 1 focused on the good and the stupid. Part 2 below will focus on the bad and the ugly.”
The Train They Call the City of New Orleans – 09/01/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock takes a hard look at the good, the bad, the ugly, and the stupid about Hurricane Katrina and the devastation it caused in New Orleans and elsewhere. Following is Part 1. It will focus on the good and the stupid. Part 2 will focus on the bad and the ugly.” Whiskey and Gunpowder Reports and Articles on Iraq
War and Empire - 01/14/2006
By Byron King "The U.S. just suffered its 2000th combat fatality in Iraq. That tarnished milestone made Byron King and I wonder how nations win wars...In this article, Byron reaches back to ancient times, to the war between the Greek states of Athens and Sparta. Byron focuses his observations on the tale of one of the most disastrous military expeditions ever recorded in history, the Athenian effort to invade Sicily."
Is It 1966 Again? – 11/29/2005
by Mike Shedlock “In the following article, Mish looks at the situation in Iraq and wonders: 'Is it 1966 again?' Mish makes a strong case for it based on a comparison between what Republican Sen. George Aiken said in 1966 and what Congressman John P. Murtha, D-Pa., is saying now. The parallel certainly is striking.”
History and Its Footnotes – 08/22/2005
by Byron W. King “What do the history of salt, the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, and Tsar Alexander II of Russia have to do with a bereaved mom down in Texas protesting the war in Iraq? Byron King shares his thoughts on all of the foregoing, and more.”
Whiskey and Gunpowder Reports and Articles on Oil
Oil Reserves and Peak Oil - 02/03/2006
By Byron King "Our recent article on Kuwaiti oil reserves ("Things Just Got Worse") prompted a lot of commentary from our readers. We received e-mail from both the Whiskey & Gunpowder cohorts and from readers of other Web sites that picked up our article."
Things Just Got Worse - 01/25/2006
By Byron King "After coming up for air from his recent and well-received book review of Red Star Rogue, our intrepid correspondent Byron King goes back to the oil patch. Or maybe we should say the Big Oil patch."
Energy Crisis and the Politics of Oil - 01/11/2006
By Mike Shedlock "In the following article, Mish takes a look at the looming energy crisis and the politics surrounding it. For starters, Mish notes the looming crisis in the United Kingdom. Next year, the United Kingdom will be an importer of both oil and natural gas. That was not supposed to happen until 2010. Well it did. What else is going on in the world of energy? Mish takes a look at Russia, China, Australia, and other countries too."
The Impending American Petrocalypse – 12/22/2005
by Jim Amrhein “Here's Jim on oil, and our precarious supply position. Specifically he talks about how supply narrowly outstrips demand - and how demand should shoot past supply early next year. He details 4 large threats to oil supply, dubbing these threats ‘chokepoints.’”
Oil Supply Disruptions – 12/21/2005
by Mike Shedlock “In the following article, Mish ponders oil supply disruptions. 2005 witnessed Rita, Katrina, recent explosions in the United Kingdom, and pipeline disruptions in Iraq. What's next? Can anything else go wrong or have we weathered the storm? Mish takes a look at some very real and very scary possibilities.”
Bad Money Drives Out the Good Science – 12/08/2005
by Byron King “It has been about one year since we published our first Whiskey & Gunpowder. Looking back,we have written quite a bit about energy issues, and in particular about oil depletion. Byron King's first article, which is available in the archives, was entitled ‘The Ghost of Colonel Drake.’"
Crash Protection – 11/05/2005
by Byron W. King “Almost daily, we receive e-mails from readers who criticize us for our gloomy views of the world. Our response is usually along the lines of "Bring it on!" You're darn right. We are gloomy.”
Fire in the Hole – 11/18/2005
by Byron W. King “Byron King and I, plus two other strapping twenty-something Agora Financial editors and Byron's two children, recently traveled to Titusville, Pa., at the kind invitation of one of our Whiskey readers.”
Oil Priced in Euros. Would It Matter? – 10/13/2005
Mike Shedlock “In the following discussion, Mish takes a look at whether or not it would matter if oil were to be priced in euros. Everyone seems to think so. Some think we even went to war over it. Did we? Read the discussion, then you decide.”
One Last Oil Boom – 09/09/2005
by Byron King “Our intrepid correspondent Byron King has paid another visit to Titusville, Pa., the birthplace of the world's oil patch. Inspired by the Ghost of Col. Edwin Drake, Byron reflects on booms and busts as the world bumps up against the absolute geological limits of the 'Peak Oil' phenomenon.”
Concern Over Oil – 08/29/2005
by Mike Shedlock “By popular request, Mike Shedlock takes a good, hard look at oil. Are oil prices too high? Is there an inventory supply glut? Should oil prices be targeted via interest rate policy? Mish attempts to address these questions and more starting with a brief discussion about ‘peak oil.’”
Oil Shock – 07/26/2005
by Sean Brodrick “By now, you're no doubt familiar with Byron's tack on the storied history of the oil industry. And I hope you enjoyed the essay that Chris Mayer shared on how massive petrodollar wealth can lead to inflation. Today, I present an essay by Sean Brodrick, the investment director of the Sovereign Society.”
Oil Union Fever – 07/05/2005
by Byron King “Leave it to our intrepid correspondent Byron King to find a connection between the Pennsylvania oil patch of the 1860s and 1870s and the recent effort by the China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) to take over Unocal. Darned if one of the founders of the former Union Oil Co. was not a contemporary of Col. Edwin L. Drake.”
Oil: The 1970s Redux – 06/29/2005
by Chris Mayer “Today Whiskey presents a new essay by Chris Mayer. Below, Chris describes the origin and early history of the Middle Eastern oil industry ( as opposed to Byron's meme of Pennsylvanian oil. ) Chris goes on to describe the outrageous wealth that the Mid-Eastern oil sheiks accumulated when the price of oil rose in the 1970s...”
Oil: Looking in All the Right Places – 06/22/2005
by Byron King “In the past few weeks, our intrepid correspondent Byron King has been discussing military history. But in this latest article, Byron reminds us that he started his tenure at Whiskey & Gunpowder last fall by writing about the earliest days of the Pennsylvania oil boom.”
Whiskey and Gunpowder Reports and Articles on Privacy
Tomorrow's "Air" Traffic Control – 12/02/2005
by Jim Amrhein “Here's Jim, dishing out another heaping plate of scorn to the privacy-impinging surveillants that surround us at all times. Below he details how certain cellular phones - through the seemingly helpful goal of tracking collective traffic patterns - could easily track an individual's movement. And people looked at me funny when I refused to get a cell phone for privacy reasons.” Whiskey and Gunpowder Reports and Articles on Silver
Poor Little Rich Boys – 11/19/2005
by Kevin Kerr “Below, Whiskey contributor Kevin Kerr offers his personal history in commodities trading. He talks of his time working with Enron, his early days in the cotton pit, and describes some of the shady characters he ran into over the years. Then, you'll get the story on the hunt Brothers, who tried to corner the silver market in the late 70's...” Whiskey and Gunpowder Reports and Articles on Trade
Trade Summit Fails – 11/09/2005
by Mike Shedlock “In the following article, Mish discusses the recent failed trade summit in Argentina. The goal was lofty: to establish a free trade zone from Alaska to Chile. The summit ended without an agreement. What went wrong?” Whiskey and Gunpowder Reports and Articles on U.S. Economy
Risk Comparison: China vs. U.S. - 02/09/2006
By Mike Shedlock "In the following article, Mish takes a look at the Chinese economy compared with the U.S. economy. Who is at greater risk of an economic downturn and why? Is there a deflation threat in China?"
Mending De-Fences, Part II - 01/31/2006
By Jim Amrhein "Here's Jim's second -- and final -- missive on the fence potentially cauterizing America's Mexican border. As you would expect, he again unloads both chambers, leaving fresh powder burns on the backside of our index fingers. Below, he surmises that a surprising amount of Mexican GDP originates from illegal immigrants and criminal border activities."
Mending De-Fences, Part I - 01/09/2006
By Jim Amrhein "Here's another heaping mouthful of wellthunk vitriol from Jim. Today he tackles the "Mexi-fence" -- the prospect of erecting a physical barrier between Mexico and America. He talks about illegal immigrants' effect on the American economy, how illegals benefit Mexico, and then he starts his discussion of "National soul" which he will finish in the second part of this essay."
Baby Boomer Time Bombs, Part II - 01/04/2006
By Mike Shedlock "In the second and final installment on the looming Baby Boomer Bust Mish continues to astound -- and scare the heck out of me. He details the state of local pension plans. Will the PBGC bail them out? Is a bailout even possible? Will we suffer from enormous tax hikes...or benefit cuts? Or both? It's hard to say but let's take a look."
Baby Boomer Time Bombs - 01/03/2006
By Mike Shedlock "Today Mish reveals the "Baby Boomer Time Bombs." He analyzes the future of Medicare, employer's health-related post employment benefit costs, Delphi's imposing pension problem - and more."
Inflation Monster Captured – 12/20/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Mish is now claiming the ‘Inflation Monster’ has been captured. Has he gone mad, or is there a better explanation? What about the price of oil and natural gas and housing and food? Shouldn't the Fed act to rein in rising costs?”
Are We Headed for a “Credit Derivatives Event”? – 09/12/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Mike Shedlock addresses whether or not we are headed for yet another derivatives catastrophe. In the following piece, Mish reviews the current state of affairs in the derivatives world and then takes a look back at the massive derivatives failure at Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), a nearly disastrous event that shook the financial world. The results may startle you."
Slouching Towards a Currency Crunch – 08/25/2005
by Sean Brodrick “a vision of Armageddon -- have come back to haunt me as I look at charts of major currencies lately. It seems the old trends, on which we based a lot of our assumptions about the economic world, are changing, shifting like sand beneath our feet."
Whiskey and Gunpowder Reports and Articles on U.S. Job Market
A Tipping Point on Jobs – 12/13/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Once again, Mish returns to look at jobs. GM, Ford, and now J.P. Morgan have all announced huge job cuts. Still, the November jobs report showed a gain of 215,000 jobs. Was this a strong report? What about the death of the U.S. consumer?”
The Big Three – 12/12/2005
by Mike Shedlock “In the following article, Mish looks at auto sales. GM and Ford are both slashing workers. GM: 30,000 - Ford: 6,500. Is that enough? Is it too much? What about future demand? Does cutting workers mean lowering output? What about GM bonds? Are they at risk, and if so, by how much? How much cash on hand does GM have?”
A Real Moral Booster on Jobs – 08/09/2005
by Mike Shedlock “Perhaps HP was jealous of the big morale boost at IBM and Sanyo. IBM is cutting about 14,000 jobs, mainly in Europe. Sanyo announced layoffs of 14,000 jobs earlier this month. Is 14,000 the magic number?” |
