Twenty-five years ago the Russians found themselves in a hole.

They had an official price for petrol (gasoline) of 1 ruble. But the cost of providing it, for example by buying it on world markets, was 8 rubles. Insofar as the state could supply any petrol to anyone at all, it was definitely going to be at a big loss. Yet they obstinately refused to accept that their price was wrong.

How we laughed at this dogmatic denial of the discipline of the market! We put it down to some sort of political imperative, but in fact it was much simpler than that.

Rather than lose money at a world-record rate, the Russian state responded by distributing official petrol in limited quantities, and only to favored clients, which in their society meant party members. The members used to fill up their Zil limousines with this cheap petrol, and effect a supply chain to retail via the simple device of draining their tanks into the jerry cans of local teenaged entrepreneurs – at 6 rubles per liter. That left the last 2 rubles to the entrepreneur, who sold it on the side of the street at 8, with hardly a murmur from official sources.

Party members were getting rich, after all, and the taxpayer was footing the bill.

Now substitute USA for Russia, and credit for petrol, and you have the essence of what is going on today. Can you get a mortgage in America or the UK at 2%, even if you pay a 50% deposit on your house? Certainly not. In America, only government mortgage agencies (Fannie and Freddie) and megabanks which are too big to fail have access to the 0.25% credit provided by the Fed. And once again, those megabanks are making very large sums, much of which gets distributed via bonus pools to those with an unremarkable talent for re-selling this cheap credit at market rates of 5.0% or more.

Political leaders regularly rail against greedy bankers, but the problem – all that cheap money – has for the last five years come directly from the false market in credit extended by ultra-low rate policies sourced in the Treasuries of the West.

Who’s at fault is academic. The issue now is that this artificially low interest rate environment can set off a hyperinflation chain reaction, just as it did in Russia once market forces prevailed. Not much is different from previous hyperinflation episodes, save that the melting of a glacially frozen stockpile of $50 trillion in government bonds performs the role traditionally played by the printing press.

In the end, those who have saved for their futures could form our own Babushka generation of pensioners. Paid out monthly, and in full, their pension will buy them a sandwich or two. The nominal value of sovereign debt will not decline, but the value of it will inflate away, taking with it the value of all those bonds.

We could end up needing to remove a couple of zeros from banknotes, because otherwise the coinage will be melted back into nickel and copper ingots as soon as it is issued, and then sold to the Chinese…

Regards,
Paul Tustain
BullionVault

October 12, 2009

Hyperinflation and Our Bankrupt Babushka Future was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

Here’s a thought—that tiny handful of investors and analysts warning how Fed policy risks hyper-inflation are in fact doing the central bank’s work.

The Fed wants you to believe hyperinflation is looming. Or at least, it should want that, if doubling its balance-sheet – purchasing and lending against investment junk – is going to work the wonders that modern central-bank theory says it can. And the Fed certainly wants you to believe it will stop at nothing to avoid deflation (”whatever means necessary” as the chairman put it back in 2002).

So anyone touting the hyperinflation risk in public is playing the shill, a decoy – seemingly unconnected – proclaiming the miracle powers of Dr.Ben Bernanke’s snake oil to CNBC anchors at every chance.

In fact, they’re doing the Fed’s work better than the Federal Reserve itself. Really.

“The major danger with a zero lower bound for the interest rate,” said Swedish policy-wonk Lars Svensson (also a Princeton colleague of the Fed chief and his credit-bubble associate Paul Krugman) in a speech earlier this year, “is that inflation expectations will be too low and even negative, and that the real interest rate will thus become too high.”

With it so far? Slashing interest rates to the very minimum of 0% suggests inflation has vanished, at least in the central bank’s eyes. But that, in turn, reduces the rate of inflation expected by consumers, investors and business. Central banks are credible forecasters, you see. At least in central-bank eyes. So in Svensson’s philosophy, the zero-rate solution to falling inflation proves self-fulfilling as people hoard cash and sit tight in bonds.

“It is thus necessary to…to counteract expectations of falling inflation, and preferably to create expectations of higher inflation,” Svensson went on. But “as Paul Krugman put it” says the Riksbank’s deputy governor, “How will the central bank ‘credibly promise to be irresponsible’…?

Heaven knows the Fed’s trying. (So’s Krugman, to no one’s surprise.) But while it’s embraced credible recklessness, the Fed’s stop short of French kissing it.

Why so coy…?

“We have a very serious recession, we have a 9.4% unemployment rate,” said San Fran Fed governor Janet Yellen in a speech in California on Tuesday. “If we were not at zero, we would be lowering the funds rate…We should want to do more.”

Just how much further would the Fed go – all the way to hyperinflation perhaps? Racing to first base, “The vigorous policy actions of the Fed and other central banks, combined with sizable fiscal stimulus here and abroad, have sent a clear message that deflation won’t be tolerated,” Yellen said.

“Based on measures of inflation expectations,” she went on, an apparently reading straight from Svensson, “the public appears confident that the Fed will adopt policies that will maintain a low, positive rate of inflation. Evidently, the credibility that the Fed and other central banks have built over the past few decades in bringing inflation down has spilled over into a belief that we won’t allow inflation to get too low either.”

Steady on, cheeky! Second base next, and “A glance at history shows that many countries with massive structural deficits and without an independent central bank turned to the printing press to pay off their debts,” Yellen continued.

Straight to third then, and “That’s a recipe for high inflation and, in some cases, hyperinflation.”

Gulp, almost home! But then, somewhere between third and fourth base, the Fed’s gone shy and rebuttoned its blouse. Because “I don’t believe the United States faces that threat,” Yellen said, showing the come-on to be just one big tease.

“Looking back in history, runaway fiscal deficits have often been accompanied by high inflation,” she explained in Tuesday’s speech in the bankrupt state of California. “But, since World War II, such a relationship has only held in developing countries. In countries with advanced financial systems and histories of low inflation, no such connection is found.”

Oh man, what a let down! Who’s gonna put out hyperinflation if not the Fed…?

“In order to make up for the collapse of credit, we are effectively creating money,” said George Soros, the legendary if only occasionally accurate hedge funder, at a Washington forum in March. “If and when credit is restarted, you would then have an incredibly swollen monetary base, which, if it were leveraged, you would have an explosion of inflation.”

The trouble comes, as Lars Svensson guessed back in January, with that “if and when”. Because it opens the door to the idea that a central bank might opt instead to withdraw all this new money after the deflation panic has ended. And that in itself is enough to make creating it useless. Pointing to Japan’s five-year experiment with ‘Quantitative Easing’ between March 2001 and March 2006, said Svensson, boosting the monetary base by some 70% failed to “noticeably affect expectations of inflation and the future price level.

“For example, the Yen did not depreciate as it should otherwise have done. Firms and households clearly believed that the expansion of the monetary base was temporary and not permanent, which subsequently proved to be true. The monetary base fell back to normal levels when the interest rate was later raised to above zero.”

Sure, the Bank of Japan’s trillions did triple Japanese Gold Prices. But even with gold refusing to drop back against the Dollar right now, eagle-eyed readers will note that, quite apart from the urgent debate in Europe, the US authorities are at pains to deny they need an ‘exit plan’ any time soon. White House advisor Christina Romer made that much plain in last week’s Economist magazine, blaming the double-dip depression of 1937 on “an unfortunate, and largely inadvertent, switch to contractionary fiscal and monetary policy.” Yellen said it again Tuesday.

So Team Bernanke have got the right idea – at least on Planet Svensson – if not the right level of irresponsibility just yet. Slip a little vodka into their juice though, and they might start talking up inflation like Alan Greenspan, Bernanke’s predecessor and the Maestro himself, writing last week in the Financial Times. He tried to spook everyone out of cash and into the stores by warning of a decade of inflation ahead!

“A pending avalanche of government debt is about to be unloaded on world financial markets,” Sir Alan of Greenspan warned sagely, almost visibly winking from behind those enormous spectacles. “The need to finance very large fiscal deficits during the coming years could lead to political pressure on central banks to print money to buy much of the newly issued debt.”

Or given enough sauce to get really loose, the Fed might even get crazy like Asia-based doomster Dr.Marc Faber. (He’s been known to enjoy the odd cocktail or two.) Stop warning on hyperinflation. Just come out and say it instead.

“I am 100% sure that the US will go into hyperinflation,” as Faber told Bloomberg in late May, and again on June 29th. “The US central bank has structured and introduced policies without considering exponential credit growth and its consequences,” added the Gloom, Boom & Doom author in an interview with the Korea Times on Wednesday.

See what I mean about being a shill? It’s like he’s on the payroll…

“The United States will not raise interest rates for many years to come because it needs to pay off its huge debts,” he went on, recommending inflation-friendly assets such as equities and Gold Bullion. “In turn, too much money in the economy will raise costs of everything, including healthcare and education, giving rise to hyperinflation.”

There, now that’s the way to do it! Greenspan and Faber on song, while the Bernanke Fed tip-toes around stating its aim:

Spark inflation and leave it to burn. Because putting it out worsened both the Great Depression and Japan’s “lost decade” – the one that started two decades ago and hasn’t yet ended. Everyone who’s anyone in monetary theory knows that.

And if they claim otherwise, maybe they’re the ones kidding.

Regards,
Adrian Ash
BullionVault

July 6, 2009

Faber and Greenspan: Shills for Fed Snake Oil was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

One big difference, as I have written before, is that during the Hoover-FDR  first great depression, there was absolutely no inflation.  None.  Why?  Because the dollar was backed by gold!  It was illegal to print trillions of paper dollars during the first great depression. That’s why FDR tried to get everyone to turn in their gold.  He could then spend more gold-backed dollars.  Also, there were no credit cards, no interstate roads, and virtually no air travel.  Stocks were being sold with little or no down payment, just as homes were being sold for the same requirements during the second great depression.  During the first great depression, there was no trillion dollar credit card debts.  During the first great depression, stocks plunged as they have done now, but perhaps a little bit further.  Then, there was no PPT or plunge protection team to keep the stock market artificially high; and you can bet your bottom dollar that the PPT has been busy of late.

Speaking of stocks, can anyone give me a reason why they have gone up a thousand points, other than the PPT?  650,000 or more each week are getting laid off, businesses by the thousands go bankrupt or close each week, prompting even more layoffs, and the chain reaction continues.  One of my clients says that stocks are going up because during a hyper inflation, everything goes up, and that is a good point, but there are no profits anywhere, so I think that argument my not be totally true.  I honestly do believe that gold and the Dow will cross eventually, with the Dow on its way down and gold on its way up.  Gold and silver will NEVER go to zero like paper assets (sic) can and have done and will continue to do.  With hyper inflation, gold and silver will be made to go up even further than other prices, I believe, because more and more people are seeing the beauty of tangible beautiful, historic money, in the form of gold and silver, and there is only so much of it out there.  As it becomes more and more difficult to get, due to increased demand, prices of metals will have to go sky high in dollars.

We drove over 3200  miles last week, mostly in Texas, and going to and from there.  The Blue Bonnets are out and beautiful, but even in Texas, the economy isn’t good at all.  While Texas houses haven’t plunged like Las Vegas, California, and Florida, it’s because they never got that high in the first place.  Still, layoffs are plentiful, and tourism, motels, and other non-essentials are hurting…even in Texas.  Closed auto dealerships are plentiful, and in one wonderful German restaurant, which used to have people waiting around the block on a Friday evening, we were seated instantly.  The second great depression is going to leave an unemployment rate of close to 20% before it’s over and all the spending and bailouts are merely postponing the inevitable, and making it worse with hyper-inflation.  The term “trillion” was unheard of a couple of years ago, as far as deficits are concerned, and now that term is thrown around like penny candy at a fair 50 years ago.

Silver is down a buck an ounce from a week ago and gold a hundred bucks.  Great buying opportunity, because they won’t stay there.  Silver is an unbelievable bargain.  In 1980, when gold was $850, silver was $50, or a 16 to one ratio.  If the ratio was 16 to 1 now, as it was then, and has been throughout history, silver would be $55 an ounce, not $12.25.   It will happen. because history cannot be denied.  It you’ve got the place to put it, get silver!

Hoover and FDR was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

Do you have a slight idea of how many millions of retirement accounts, pension funds, and charities have been destroyed because of the Barney Franks of D.C.?  I find it incomprehensible to witness that a stock market can go up 497 points, three days after another 20 banks went under, and every conceivable thing which can go wrong has gone wrong. I am astonished at the credulity and unabashed total economic illiteracy of the American and even the world’s public.  We’re headed for hyperinflation, with prices of everything going through the roof, and America is buying stocks rather than gold and silver?  Unbelievable.  Millions of offices, stores, and shops are empty throughout America, thanks to bankruptcies.  Millions of homes are empty, being foreclosed, in some cases brutally vandalized, and people buy stocks, rather than gold and silver?

Remember Stott’s Law?  “The more of anything there is, the less they will be worth.”  This is true with houses, cars, dollars, stocks, government and bureaucracy.  Millions of new shares of stock are issued each week, and government is growing like a weed.  There’s very little gold and silver on earth, so the law will never apply to them.  They’ll never go to zero.

State governments are broke, county, city, and town governments are suffering from a lack of sales and property taxes, which pay for public trash removal, snow plowing, police and fire departments; and people are buying stocks?  America’s travails have ventured around the world.  Not that the Brits don’t have a housing bubble, and the French too, or other nations also, but we seemed to have triggered it.  There are trillions of derivatives still out there.  It isn’t all over at all.  This is just the beginning, my friend.

The D.C. Gang supports the automakers, while the auto dealerships by the dozens go broke.  Who will sell the cars if the dealers are gone? Used car lots are chock full, and no one is buying them.  Massive business failures are around the corner, and people are buying stocks?  If there ever was a bear market bounce, this is it.  If there ever was a rally with no logical reason to support it, this is it. Many many shopping centers and malls are on the skids, their mortgages are in default, and not being helped by vacant stores.  I do know that thousands of ex- Circuit City and other big box stores are not free and clear, and the owners of them are in deep trouble with no rent coming in.

Locally, there are two sand and gravel companies.  One of them is shut down totally, and the other is hanging on by a thread. Locally, there are lots and lots of vacant stores, and this isn’t a manufacturing town.  My town is a farm town, has 17,000 people in it, and there are lots of vacant stores which weren’t vacant a year ago.  All localities are in trouble.  Silverton,Colorado, with 450 people in it, depends on tourism since the mines were shut down by the EPA and MSHA.  They’re dreading this summer’s business, and people are buying stocks?

We’re headed directly into socialism with a capital “S” and that results in communism in far too many cases.  When Hitler and Castro came to power, they were regaled as saviors and heroes.  The Ruskies still idolize Stalin, who murdered 30 million.  In South and central America, the socialists are gaining ground, and with voter approval.  When you get in bed with government, usually by the volunteerism of the vote, you are going to get raped.  America has gotten into bed with, as Rush calls him TOTUS (Teleprompter of the US), and we are getting screwed with our own smiling faces. Would I opt to leave America?  Hell no, because as far as the Latin nations are concerned, one of their most common shouts have always been “Revolution!”  Governments come and go down south, I am afraid.  Who would have ever thought that Iceland could go bankrupt because of AAA rated securities?

Want to short the dollar?  Buy gold and silver which are the enemies of paper scrip.  Want to be safe?  Get out of the big cities.  It is so sad.  Grievously sad about what’s happening to America and hundreds of millions of its citizens.  We’re being over run with illegals from Mexico who won’t learn English, and think we’re supposed to support them.  We’ve elected a bozo who has about as much true love for America as does any pip squeak, lusting for power, politico.  Our currency is headed south with all deliberate speed, helped along by Democrats and a few Republicans.  Our guns are threatened, and with every day that dawns, a new little bureaucracy is formed.  A popular talk show host’s wife read the 600-page Stimulus Bill and was appalled at its contents.  According to her, the bill is full of giveaways with a separate little bureaucracy to oversee each handout.

The plain fact of the matter is that with a $3.6 TRILLION deficit, and long term obligated to pay debts of $75 TRILLION, the debt cannot be paid, any more than could the German debt be paid after WW I, other than with printing press money.  Will dollars be used as insulation or as a method to start fires eventually?  How can it be avoided?  If anyone has even a smidgen of a way this can be avoided, please let me know.  Is there any other way to protect ones self from hyperinflation, other than to get out of the currency that is being hyperinflated, and into something tangible?  The king dollar has no clothes, people are beginning to see the truth of it, and the laughter has begun in the form of escaping from them.

Regards,
Don Stott

March 26, 2009

Absurdities of Socialism and Hyperinflation was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

During a credit deflation, things get cheaper. Without lines of credit, people can’t bid things up and prices fall to their “cash on hand” level. Given a long enough time, things settle out and prices relative to wages actually become attractive. But it’s a long and bumpy ride from here to there. The trick is to maintain roughly the same level of income as others take wage cuts or lose their jobs entirely. Add this to the general lack of credit and you find that the cost of living drops dramatically. You might have felt poor a couple of years ago when you earned $50,000 per year, but if you can hold onto that income, why, in the next couple of years you could feel positively wealthy!

The holding on part is where it gets a little tricky.

It’s tricky because when credit evaporates, less goods and services can be bought. A lot of jobs providing those goods and services become unnecessary. Layoffs become all the rage. You wind up with a lot of formerly employed people with no jobs and no money and no attractive prospects. Doesn’t seem fair, but that’s what happens when hopes and livelihoods get propped up on the shifting sand of credit expansion.

When credit vanishes, actual cash becomes king. Promises to pay take a back seat to actual ability to pay. Exactly what are we calling “cash”, though? God and the free markets like gold and silver because they’re relatively rare, easily divisible, and it’s very difficult to control their supply, and hence they’re innately honest. Governments prefer colorful bits of paper that they issue precisely because they can print up as many as they need.

While credit isn’t wealth, neither is money. Money is just a commodity we use to represent and exchange wealth. It’s rather vital to have a measuring tool that resists stretching and deformation or else you get into all sorts of trouble. Gold and silver tend to resist stretching; paper money begs for it.

During the last really big credit bust in this country cash was very strictly tied to gold and silver. The exchange rates were fixed; you got one ounce of gold for a twenty-dollar bill (plus 67 pennies). Fifty-four cents got you an ounce of silver. So when the credit bubble popped and prices slumped, they did so in terms of a dollar that was a reliable proxy for gold and silver. How things have changed!

First FDR devalued the dollar and a little later Nixon killed it. The currency we have today is a hoax wrapped in a lie. It isn’t tied to anything. The old dollar was a certificate that could be exchanged for a very specific amount of gold. The one we’ve had since 1971 is a promise from the U.S. government…and little paper promises from governments have a dismal history.

You might have noticed that during our recent gargantuan credit bust people again ran to the dollar. They expressed a very strong preference for greenbacks over…well, just about everything else in the wide world. But running to the dollar for shelter these days is like seeking protection from the man who is shooting at you…or running from the doorway of a burning building to the second floor.

During the last depression, the dollar’s tie to gold limited the ability of our communist dictator to goose the money supply. Roosevelt had to coerce the citizenry to give him their gold under pain of imprisonment so he could allow for some easing of the dollar’s value. This time around, FDR II can just have central banks conjure up as much cash as deemed necessary out of nothingness because the dollar isn’t tied to gold anymore.

Inflation is a slow burn on its default setting, which governments enjoy so much. It’s why they insist on monopolizing currency in the first place. But let inflation go on long enough and the currency becomes worthless. Sometimes events conspire to accelerate the race to worthlessness. Wars, laughably unpayable national debt, financial panics…that sort of thing.

The government would prefer an endless boom, even though such a thing—like individual biological immortality or perpetual motion — just isn’t possible. The central bank gets things started by expanding credit. Good times ensue. Everyone is employed and everyone lives beyond their means and bids up the prices of assets with money they don’t really have. This can’t go on forever (and never does!), but governments hate to see the ravages of the inevitable contraction after their artificially-induced boom. States love for their citizens to be blissfully distracted with fantasy, especially the really unsustainable sort.

So what is a government to do when it wants people to spend and they just refuse? When the rubes refuse to play ball and insist on hanging on to their savings, all you have to do is make saving less attractive than spending. Increase the money supply…make the money people hold less valuable…encourage them to get rid of it. Set the currency ablaze and ferret the consumers out.

Around these parts, we subscribe to the view that savings are essential for capital investment, but politicians side with Keynes on this and believe savings are for suckers; debt is where it’s at. And if private debt has brought the population to its knees, then the obvious answer is a dollop of public debt to kill their currency and finish them off!

It’s not just the amount of dollars that the central bank produces, however; it’s the amount that actually gets circulated and the speed at which it moves through the economy. When the general populace senses that the dollars they’re holding are losing value (because the central bank is accelerating the increase in supply), they try very hard to get rid of them as quickly as possible. They trade them for things that will hold their value.

The real trouble with hyperinflation isn’t that it devalues the currency, however; it’s that it devalues souls. It leads people astray. It removes the moral stops. It changes all sense of proportion. Like a sadistic, juvenile prankster, government spikes the punch with a little quantitative easing and before you know it all bets are off. People drunkenly succumb to the baser instincts they normally keep in check. The thin layer of restraint provided by the neo-cortex is broken and all sorts of reptilian longings are indulged…and consequences be damned.

Trying to invest and plan for the future under a fiat currency regime is like trying to be witty and convincing while drunk. Inevitably the wrong things are said and done because perception and judgment are hopelessly warped.

During a hyperinflation, the majority of the population who counted on the scrip they were forced to deal with and save can only feel angry desperation as all their savings turn to ashes practically overnight. The reward for personal thrift coupled with trust in the largest institution around—the state—is loss and future uncertainty. Under such conditions, societies tend to come apart fairly rapidly. Crime rises as savings and incomes disappear. Ethnic tensions may mount. There is a bull market in internal strife and personal misery.

People generally rather consume than produce or delay gratification. This is why the masses can be lied to with paper. But the universe is a weighing machine, not a voting booth. Wishes don’t trump reality. And disaster must befall those who expect something for nothing. We here in the Whiskey Room like to point the finger at governments, but we also have to acknowledge that thing in human nature that allows governments to exist in the first place and to flourish.

For the past decade in the U.S. easy credit — pretend money — led people to put their houses up as collateral on debts that could only be paid back if real estate prices kept getting propped up by more easy credit. Then they used this debt to finance vacations and trips to big retails chains to buy things that would not be used to produce or store wealth. And this was just an expansion of credit!

When the actual money supply expands in order to ease debt repayments…well, all sorts of screwy things happen. That’s what generally spurs the vulgar expansion of the money supply: the political desire to ease massive debt repayment, both public and private…that and war. When you see a nation living beyond its means, watch out; its currency will be thrown under the bus when the bill comes due.

Destroying the currency, however, means that the debts really weren’t repaid…because they were paid back with dollars that aren’t worth the value of those that were initially borrowed. It’s a big swindle and everyone involved knows it. But it goes on anyway with all the nasty consequences you’d expect from such massive debauchery, delusion and theft.

The list of countries that have suffered the ravages of paper money hyperinflation is pretty darned long…and ironically it starts with the very first country to give paper money a try, long, long ago. China’s Yuan Dynasty’s little experiment with paper money ended badly. In fact, it helped end the Yuan Dynasty.

For the first time in history, currencies everywhere are merely paper…including the world’s reserve currency. The potential…the inevitability…of a worldwide bonfire of these little paper vanities staggers the imagination. The conflagration will be mesmerizing in its size and intensity. You may even find yourself enjoying the view…if you make it a point to be standing far enough away not to be consumed.

Regards,
Gary Gibson
Managing Editor, Whiskey & Gunpowder

February 17, 2009

The Joys of Hyperinflation was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

Iceland is the poster-child du jour for this. The little island nation of about 320,000 souls (roughly half of Vermont’s population) lately grew a banking sector that thrived on something-for-nothing finance. In little more than a month, its banks have imploded like mini-death stars, leaving Iceland with a pariah currency. Since it has to import just about everything, and it suddenly finds itself unable to pay for imports, the people are stripping the grocery markets of whatever remains there now. You wonder what they will do in two weeks. Ten years from now there may be 32,000 of them left, subsisting on blubber sandwiches.

I exaggerate perhaps a little, but who really knows where all this leads? Here in the USA, the Treasury, enjoying new and seemingly limitless powers of discretionary spending, has begun shoveling dollars into every truck that backs up to the loading dock. The numbers are staggering. In ten days it’s reached into the trillions in loans and handouts. Most of this money is getting sucked directly into the black hole of debt and margin calls of one kind or another. This is previously-presumed wealth that is now un-presumed. It’s leaving the system, never to be seen again. One useful way of thinking about it is to regard it as our society’s previous borrowings against our own future. Thus, we are seeing our future vanish into a black hole — our future comfort, health, and basic nourishment.

This is the kind of fiasco that brings down governments, propels societies into revolutions, and starts wars. In a few months, America will be full of angry economic losers. We’re not the same nation that crowded around the old radio consoles for Franklin Roosevelt’s fireside chats. Back then, we were mostly a highly-disciplined, regimented, industrial society full of citizens who mostly did what they were told to do, and mostly trusted in authority. Today we’re a nation of tattooed barbarian “consumers” with no impulse control, a swollen sense of entitlement, ruled by a set of authorities ranging from one G.W. Bush to the grifter-billionaire pantheon of Wall Street CEOs — now heading into secret bunkers with their stashes of krugerrands, freeze-dried veal Milanese, and private security squads armed with XM-8 carbines.

I go along with Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s idea — read The Black Swan — that nobody really knows anything. We construct our narratives to try and explain circumstances that are unraveling non-linearly before us, and some narratives are more plausible than others, depending on your vantage point. There are infinite narratives. This is nothing more than my narrative. The circumstances we’re entering appear, for the moment, to take the shape of a compressive deflationary depression with the cherry-on-top add-on of a hyper-inflation further down the road — meaning initially that jobs, incomes, and pensions are lost, but that later on even the little money that people manage to get — perhaps mostly from government hand-outs of one kind or another — steadily loses its value. Every way you jigger things, it just ends up meaning the same thing: a much poorer society. It certainly won’t be a society of recreational shoppers plying the Target store aisles for scented candles and home accents. Hyperinflation could make old debts meaningless, but it would also make credit meaningless and spending absurd.

Given the way our society has evolved to operate — as an endless upward spiral of borrowings — you can see an awful lot of things not working anymore, and an awful lot of people not working in them or at them. Maybe the governments of the G-7 will get lending unstuck at the upper levels, but who, exactly, is able to borrow now besides companies on the verge of bankruptcy — and why continue to lend to them? (Except to maintain the pretense that “something is being done”). Besides, there’s much too much previously borrowed money that won’t ever paid back, and the “work-out” of all that debt only implies the continued distress sale of any-and-all assets — so that the USA in effect becomes yard-sale nation.

Personally, I think all the re-jiggering in the world of numbers and indexes will not solve anything, and really only represents a kind obsessive-compulsive neurosis related to numerology that will do nothing to readjust our daily activities toward the production of things that have real and enduring value. In my narrative, the fate of industrial nations really depends on energy resources. The price of oil may be going down for the moment — perhaps due to the de-leveraging of hedge funds, banks, and invested individuals, perhaps combined with a perception of “demand destruction” — but the geology and geopolitics of oil have not changed since June of this year when oil was at $147. Let’s say US oil consumption is down one million barrels of oil a day. Within the next two years, we’re liable to lose more than that in import declines from Mexico and Venezuela alone. The International Energy Agency’s latest estimate is for only slightly less of an increase in worldwide oil demand than was previously posted. It’s still a net demand increase. World oil consumption still exceeds world production now, perhaps permanently so. Finally, the current plunge of oil prices has suddenly halted the very capital ventures in exploration and development that were hoped to increase the worldwide supply of oil. All this portends an aggravation of oil supply and allocation problems in the five years ahead, and ultimately much more expensive, harder-to-get oil.

What we can’t face is the prospect that we might become something other than an industrial “consumer” society. My narrative includes the conviction that we will have trouble producing food for ourselves as petro-agriculture fails, and since society can’t go on without food production, I see this activity coming back much closer to the center of our daily lives. We’re not ready to think about that. The downside of our unreadiness may be that a lot of Americans will go hungry in the decade ahead.

None of this is an argument for despair, by the way, but it certainly invokes the need for steeply revised expectations and serious attention to a national “to-do” list. We’re on our way to becoming another nation, whether we like it or not. No amount of numerological augury or even hand-wringing will change that. The big question for, say the 24 months ahead is: how disorderly will we allow this transition to be?

Regards,
Jim Kunstler
October 16, 2008

Dwindling Resources Meet Vanishing Wealth was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder

To answer this, we need to consider two closely linked topics. First, what is an inflation hedge? Second, what makes a good inflation hedge? The first answer is simple. An inflation hedge is an asset that loses little value in periods of rising prices. Thus, it holds its value and purchasing power during inflation. This also applies to hyperinflation. An investor expecting inflation will buy this asset to hedge against inflation.

The answer to the second question requires understanding of the two basic types of assets: real assets and financial assets. Real assets have intrinsic value. They have value of their own. People value them for their direct or indirect usefulness. Examples include books, TVs, cars, wheat, gold, real estate, land, etc.

Financial assets, on the other hand, are a claim on the income or wealth of a firm, family or the government. Their typical form is a certificate or a receipt. Examples include paper money, stocks, bonds, mortgages and exchange traded funds. All money market and capital market instruments serve as examples.

In general, real assets hedge better than paper assets. By definition, real assets have a value of their own. Inflation does not erode their value. Thus, any real asset can be an inflation hedge. It follows that real estate is also a hedge, but it’s not the best.

Good hedges have a few key properties. We mention here only four. One key property of a hedge is that it holds its value. It should lose little value over time. Cars and eggs lose value over time. Land, silver and wine do not.

Another key property is marketability. This means that it is easy to sell. Other people will easily take it for payment. Hence, it is good for barter. Chairs and clothes do not sell. Corn and gold do.

A third key property is divisibility. This means that the asset splits into smaller parts without a loss of value. Houses, cars and cows are not divisible. Rice, wine, gas and gold are.

The last key property is financing. It is vital. Experts prefer to fully ignore it. Investors buy assets with either cash or credit. Cash-based hedges are good. Credit-based hedges are bad. History repeatedly shows that assets bought on credit are prone to speculation and bubbles. The hedge might be already overvalued. In this case, investors should avoid it. Credit clearly drives real estate. Moreover, real estate recently went through a wild bubble. It is grossly expensive, so a poor hedge.

The verdict is clear. Real estate is a hedge, but a poor one. It fails all of the above four tests. On the other hand, gold is a far superior hedge. Gold aces all the tests of a good hedge. That is why it is the ultimate inflation hedge. Better yet, now gold is cheap, while real estate is dear. Thus, as a hedge, gold handily beats real estate.

Real estate bought with cash, free and clear of any debt, might be a poor hedge, but it is nevertheless a hedge. It will protect the value of your money. It is not as good a hedge as gold, but it will do the job. However, we emphasize that real estate bought on credit (with a mortgage) creates substantial new risks to the investor. It’s possible to hedge one risk by assuming another, but not recommended.

So what are the risks, or traps, associated with leveraged real estate? We mention here four. First, we could be wrong! What if prices actually fall — or you have what people commonly call a deflation? Deflation kills those who borrowed to hedge with real estate, because it makes those debts more difficult to pay. Even worse, deflation triggers recession, unemployment and falling income. Similarly to what happened during the Great Depression and to Japan during the 1990s, deflation results in massive foreclosures and business failures.

Another trap for leveraged real estate is that the possibility of another credit crunch might spook the market. We saw this in February; we saw it again in August. Real estate was no place to hide then.

The third trap concerns how investors finance real estate. An ARM, or adjustable rate mortgage, can be a risky way to finance. Rising prices drive interest rates higher. Mortgage rates may rise from a modest 3-4% to 12-15%. This actually happened during the 1970s. Thus, monthly payments could easily triple. Obvious, yet millions of Americans fell for it once again in the early 2000s. Sure, they fell driven by greed. Still, many hedgers are oblivious to this.

The last trap is by far the most insidious, for it is the hardest to see. Inflation overwhelms the borrower; it eats him alive. Before long, food prices double, gas doubles, electricity doubles; prices of all the basic needs double in short order. Yet salaries do not; they lag far behind prices. Oftentimes, as in the 1970s, salaries lag many years behind. Similarly, prices of basic goods, such as food and energy, have more than doubled since 2002. Eventually, there comes the time that after paying for your basic needs, there’s not enough left to pay the mortgage. Let’s further clarify this point with an example.

Say the borrower makes $2,000 — $1,000 goes to pay the mortgage; the other $1,000 goes to pay the bills. Rising food and gasoline prices squeeze the borrower. To pay the bills, he cuts down on consumption, but the bills overwhelm him — they cost him now $1,600. He got a raise and his salary is now $2,300, but he must still borrow some more, maybe on his credit cards, to pay the bills and keep up with the mortgage. He falls deeper and deeper into debt. The higher interest on the credit drains more and more of his income, leaving less for living expenses and the mortgage. Eventually, the consumer buckles. Only now it becomes apparent that he erred — he knew all along that he was paying off his mortgage with cheaper dollars, but he didn’t realize that the same cheap dollars made up his monthly salary. Even a mortgage with a fixed interest rate and fixed monthly payments did not help. Many fell for this in the 1970s, but few saw it coming. Worse, many seem to fall for this today, yet no one warns them. Forewarned is forearmed!

Thus, leveraged real estate is not only a poor hedge against inflation, but also a very risky one. However, if you must hedge, then hedge with gold, not with real estate.

Sincerely,
Dr. Krassimir Petrov
January 24, 2008

Is Real Estate a Good Hedge Against Hyperinflation? was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder