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	<title>Whiskey and Gunpowder &#187; income tax</title>
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		<title>Ninety-Nine Years of Evil</title>
		<link>http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/ninety-nine-years-of-evil/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Feb 2012 19:56:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jeffrey Tucker</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[99th anniversary of sixteenth amendment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[amendment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[income tax]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Today is the 99th anniversary of the signing of the 16th Amendment to the Constitution. It enshrined into law an idea that stands in total contradiction to the driving force behind the American Revolution and the whole idea of freedom itself. The great &#8220;old right&#8221; commentator Frank Chodorov once described the income tax as the [...]<p><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/ninety-nine-years-of-evil/">Ninety-Nine Years of Evil</a> was originally featured on <a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com">Whiskey and Gunpowder</a>. Visit <a href="http://lfb.org/">Laissez Faire Books</a> for the best selection of libertarian book titles.</p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today is the 99th anniversary of the signing of the 16th Amendment to the Constitution. It enshrined into law an idea that stands in total contradiction to the driving force behind the American Revolution and the whole idea of freedom itself.</p>
<p>The great &#8220;old right&#8221; commentator Frank Chodorov once described the income tax as the root of all evil. His target was not the tax itself, but the principle behind it. Since its implementation in 1913, he wrote, &#8220;The government says to the citizen: ‘Your earnings are not exclusively your own; we have a claim on them, and our claim precedes yours; we will allow you to keep some of it, because we recognize your need, not your right; but whatever we grant you for yourself is for us to decide.&#8217;&#8221;</p>
<p>He really does have a point. That&#8217;s evil. When Congress ratified the 16th Amendment on Feb. 3, 1913, there was a sense in which all private income in the U.S. was nationalized. What was not taxed from then on was a favor granted unto us, and continues to be so.</p>
<p>This is implied in the text of the amendment itself: &#8220;The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.&#8221;</p>
<p>Where are the limits? There weren&#8217;t any. There was some discussion about putting a limit on the tax, but it seemed unnecessary. Only 1% of the income earners would end up paying about 1% to the government. Everyone else was initially untouched. Who really cares that the rich have to pay a bit more, right? They can afford it.</p>
<p>This perspective totally misunderstand the true nature of government, which always wants more money and more power and will stop at nothing to get both. The 16th Amendment was more than a modern additive to an antique document. It was a new philosophy of the fiscal life of the entire country.</p>
<p>Today, the ruling elite no longer bother with things like amendments. But back in those days, it was different. The amendment was made necessary because of previous court decisions that stated what was once considered a bottom-line presumption of the free society: Government cannot tax personal property. What you make is your own. You get to keep the product of your labors. Government can tax sales, perhaps, or raise money through tariffs on goods coming in and out of the country. But your bank account is off-limits.</p>
<p>The amendment changed that idea. In the beginning, it applied to very few people. This was one reason it passed. It was pitched as a replacement tax, not a new money raiser. After all the havoc caused by the divisive tariffs of the 19th century, this sounded like a great deal to many people, particularly Southerners and Westerners fed up with paying such high prices for manufactured goods while seeing their trading relations with foreign consumers disrupted.</p>
<p>People who supported it &#8212; and they were not so much the left but the right-wing populists of the time &#8212; imagined that the tax would hit the robber baron class of industrialists in the North. And that it did. Their fortunes began to dwindle, and their confidence in their ability to amass and retain intergenerational fortunes began to wane.</p>
<p>We all know the stories of how the grandchildren of the Gilded Age tycoons squandered their family heritage in the 1920s and failed to carry on the tradition. Well, it is hardly surprising. The government put a timetable and limit on accumulation. Private families and individuals would no longer be permitted to exist except in subjugation to the taxing state. The kids left their private estates to live in the cities, put off marriage, stopped bothering with all that hearth and home stuff. Time horizons shortened, and the Jazz Age began.</p>
<p>Class warfare was part of the deal from the beginning. The income tax turned the social fabric of the country into a giant lifetime boat, with everyone arguing about who had to be thrown overboard so that others might live.</p>
<p>The demon in the beginning was the rich. That remained true until the 1930s, when FDR changed the deal. Suddenly, the income would be collected, but taxed in a different way. It would be taken from everyone, but a portion would be given back late in life as a permanent income stream. Thus was the payroll tax born. This tax today is far more significant than the income tax.</p>
<p>The class warfare unleashed 99 years ago continues today. One side wants to tax the rich. The other side finds it appalling that the percentage of people who pay no income tax has risen from 30% to nearly 50% in this period of economic downturn. Now we see the appalling spectacle of Republicans regarding this as a disgrace that must change. They have joined the political classes that seek advancement by hurting people.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s extremely strange that the payroll tax is rarely considered in this debate. The poor, the middle class and the rich are all being hammered by payroll taxes that fund failed programs that provide no security and few benefits at all.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s impossible to take seriously the claims that the income tax doesn&#8217;t harm wealth creation. When Congress wants to discourage something &#8212; smoking, imports, selling stocks or whatever &#8212; they know what to do: Tax it. Tax income, and on the margin, you discourage people from earning it.</p>
<p>Tax debates are always about &#8220;reform&#8221; &#8212; which always means a slight shift in who pays what, with an eye to raising ever more money for the government. A far better solution would be to forget the whole thing and return to the original idea of a free society: You get to keep what you earn or inherent. That means nothing short of abolishing the great mistake of 1913. Forget the flat tax. The only just solution is no tax on incomes ever.</p>
<p>But let&#8217;s say that one day we actually become safe from the income tax collectors and something like blessed peace arrives. There is still another problem that emerged in 1913. Congress created the Federal Reserve, which eventually developed the power to create &#8212; on its own &#8212; all the money that government would ever need, even without taxing.</p>
<p>For the practical running of the affairs of the state, the Fed is far worse than the income tax. It creates the more-insidious tax of inflation. In a strange way, it has made all the debates about taxation superfluous. Denying the government revenue does nothing to curb its appetites for our liberties and property. The Fed has managed to make it impossible to starve the beast.</p>
<p>Chodorov was correct about the evil of the income tax. Its passage signaled the beginning of a century of despotism. Our property is no longer safe. Our income is not our own. We are legally obligated to turn over whatever our masters say we owe them. You can fudge this point: None of this is compatible with the old liberal idea of freedom.</p>
<p>You doubt it? Listen to Thomas Jefferson from his inaugural address of 1801. What he said then remains true today:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;&#8230;what more is necessary to make us a happy and a prosperous people? Still one more thing, fellow citizens &#8212; a wise and frugal government, which shall restrain men from injuring one another, shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement and <strong>shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned.&#8221;</strong></p></blockquote>
<p>Regards,</p>
<p>Jeffrey Tucker</p>
<p><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/ninety-nine-years-of-evil/">Ninety-Nine Years of Evil</a> was originally featured on <a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com">Whiskey and Gunpowder</a>. Visit <a href="http://lfb.org/">Laissez Faire Books</a> for the best selection of libertarian book titles.</p>
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		<title>The Revolution of 1913</title>
		<link>http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/the-revolution-of-1913/</link>
		<comments>http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/the-revolution-of-1913/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Feb 2012 18:54:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bill Bonner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[funding empire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[income tax]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sixteenth amendment]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Readers will scarcely have given any thought to the fact that they have never lived in the system of government argued for by Madison, Jay, and Hamilton in the Federalist Papers. &#8220;It may come as a shock &#8230;&#8221; wrote John Flynn, &#8220;to be told that[you] have never experienced that kind of society which [our] ancestors knew [...]<p><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/the-revolution-of-1913/">The Revolution of 1913</a> was originally featured on <a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com">Whiskey and Gunpowder</a>. Visit <a href="http://lfb.org/">Laissez Faire Books</a> for the best selection of libertarian book titles.</p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Readers will scarcely have given any thought to the fact that they have never lived in the system of government argued for by Madison, Jay, and Hamilton in the Federalist Papers.</p>
<p>&#8220;It may come as a shock &#8230;&#8221; wrote John Flynn, &#8220;to be told that[you] have never experienced that kind of society which [our] ancestors knew as the American Republic &#8230;&#8221; Flynn, the editor of the popular weekly the Saturday Evening Post, had already come to this conclusion in 1955. In his book The Decline of the American Republic, Flynn observed that Americans needlessly &#8220;live in the war-torn, debt-ridden, tax-harried wreckage of a once imposing edif ice of the free society which arose out of the American Revolution on the foundation of the U.S. Constitution.&#8221;</p>
<p>An empire needs a source of income suff icient to fund its military campaigns, regulatory regimes, and domestic schemes. It also needs a strong central authority to direct its ambitious new programs. In one short 12-month span, a year the writer Frank Chodorov calls the &#8220;Revolution of 1913,&#8221; the empire got the tools it needed. That year—the same year European countries abandoned the gold standard in preparation for World<br />
War I—the old Republic ceased to exist.</p>
<p><strong>WHERE THE MONEY COMES FROM</strong></p>
<p>America&#8217;s current system of income tax is a twentieth-century invention. Previous attempts at creating a national tax had failed or had been thrown out because they violated tenets of the Constitution deemed essential by the founders. In its f irst 100 years, the United States supported its federal government with a series of what we would call &#8220;sin taxes&#8221; today, on</p>
<p>whiskey, tobacco, and sugar. By 1817, all internal taxes were abolished by Congress, leaving only tariffs on imported goods as a means for supporting the government.</p>
<p>The first income tax that citizens of the young Republic were forced to endure came about because Congress had been asked to fund the War between the States. In 1862, a tax on incomes between $600 and $10,000 was assessed at the rate of 3 percent, and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) was created. The war was costing $1.75 million per day.2 The government sold off land, borrowed heavily, enacted various fees, and increased excise taxes, but it simply wasn&#8217;t enough. The income tax seemed like the only way to finance the war and service the country&#8217;s then-staggering $505 million debt. That tax was promoted as a temporary wartime measure. Temporary it was. In 1872, after servicing the Reconstruction, Congress yanked the &#8220;temporary&#8221; tax.</p>
<p>But that was not the end of it. The income tax appealed to empire builders because it alone offered enough cash to finance the enterprise. But it had another appeal—to the larceny and envy in the hearts of ordinary citizens. Following a banking panic in 1893, Senator William Peffer of Kansas, supported the progressive income tax in this way:</p>
<blockquote><p>Wealth is accumulated in New York, and not because those men are more industrious than we are, not because they are wiser and better, but because they trade, because they buy and sell, because they deal in usury, because they reap in what they have never earned, because they take in and live off what other men earn&#8230; . The West and the South have made you people rich.</p></blockquote>
<p>That sentiment was puffed up by Nebraska&#8217;s bellicose worldimprover William Jennings Bryan, who argued against the &#8220;equal taxation&#8221; requirement in the Constitution, in favor of the current progressive one:</p>
<blockquote><p>If New York and Massachusetts pay more tax under this law than other states, it will be because they have more taxable incomes within their borders. And why should not those sections pay most which enjoy most?</p></blockquote>
<p>This logic is simple. People who are more productive should be forced to pay a bigger share of their common expenses. But this kind of logic had no place in a free republic where all men were supposedly created equal; if they were equal they could each carry their own share of</p>
<p>the burden of central government. Under this new regime, men were no longer equal, but given differing loads to carry based on the whims of elected hacks.</p>
<p>With considerable foresight, one member of the House of Representatives predicted:</p>
<blockquote><p>The imposition of the [income] tax will corrupt the people. It will bring in its train the spy and the informer. It will necessitate a swarm of off icials with inquisitorial powers. It will be a step toward centralization.</p>
<p>&#8230; It breaks another canon of taxation in that it is expensive in its collection and cannot be fairly imposed &#8230; and, finally, it is contrary to the traditions and principles of republican government.</p></blockquote>
<p>When the tax was again introduced in 1894, a challenge went to the U.S. Supreme Court. In 1895, even among the cacophony of appeals in Congress to &#8220;soak the rich,&#8221; the Supreme Court declared the bill unconstitutional in a 5-to-4 ruling. In writing the majority opinion, Justice</p>
<p>Stephen J. Field quoted another case to support his conclusion:</p>
<blockquote><p>As stated by counsel: &#8220;There is no such thing in the theory of our national government as unlimited power of taxation in congress. There are limitations, as he justly observes, of its powers arising out of the essential nature of all free governments; there are reservations of individual rights, without which society could not exist, and which are respected by every government. The right of taxation is subject to these limitations.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>But when the winds of empire blew, the old yellowed paper of the U.S. Constitution went f lying. Following The Panic of 1907, President Theodore Roosevelt sided with a faction in the Democratic Party that wanted to amend the Constitution to allow a national income tax. In</p>
<p>1909, President Taft stated that he had &#8220;become convinced that a great majority of the people of this country are in favor of vesting the National Government with power to levy an income tax.&#8221;</p>
<p>Of course, politicians are always able and willing to argue that &#8220;the people&#8221; want a government to have more power. If the voters see a free lunch in the deal, they&#8217;re for it. By 1913, just in time for Wilson&#8217;s emergence on the world stage, the Sixteenth Amendment had been ratified by enough states to put the income tax into law. The Amendment states:</p>
<p>The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several states, and without regard to any census or enumeration.</p>
<p>It wasn&#8217;t long before Congress exercised its new powers. Wilson even convened a special session of Congress to rush through the f irst tax law under the Sixteenth Amendment, in which earnings above $3,000 were subject to a 1 percent tax, gradually moving up to 7 percent on higher income levels.</p>
<p>With its rather modest rates, the original income tax was viewed as a benign inconvenience. As early as 1916, however, the top rate was more than doubled from 7 percent up to 15 percent. Then as cash was needed to send Pershing to France, the rate was hiked to a staggering 67 percent in 1917 and 77 percent by 1918. Even the low rates were raised. From their microscopic origin of only 1 percent, the rate settled into a &#8220;modest&#8221; 23 percent by the end of World War II. But by that time, the people of the old republic had grown to accept an income tax as a necessary evil. Now that the nation was an empire, it needed the money.</p>
<p>In our present era, the complexity of the Internal Revenue Code (IRC) has created an army of specialized lawyers and accountants. Even attempts at reform are out of control. A &#8220;technical corrections&#8221; bill exceeds 900 pages of adjustments. In fact, by the beginning of the twentyfirst century, the tax codes exceeded 7 million words, about nine times longer than the Bible; and the IRS was sending out about 8 billion pages of forms and instructions every year—at the cost of about 300,000 trees! All this effort translates to about 5.4 billion hours spent every year by Americans just complying with the tax rules.</p>
<p>From 1913 to 2005, the income tax has enabled, entitled, empowered, and engorged the federal government, states, and local governments, private enterprises, and millions of private citizens. Spending has grown by more than 13,592 percent.</p>
<p>The income tax gives the federal government a blank check to spend money, even money it does not yet have. The federal government lays a claim on all future economic activity of its citizens; its massive debts are a lien on the earnings of people who have not yet even drawn their first breaths. What&#8217;s more, the income tax could be used as both an economic tool and as a political weapon. Tax rates could be manipulated, for example, to punish or reward favored political groups.</p>
<p>When the Constitution was ratified in 1789, the colonists in the New World believed they had won for themselves a measure of freedom and independence. &#8220;A republic, if you can keep it,&#8221; Benjamin Franklin warned.</p>
<p>But by the end of 1913, a scant 124 years later, Americans were happy to lose their republic; an empire was what they wanted.</p>
<p>Regards,</p>
<p><a href="http://dailyreckoning.com/author/bbonner/">Bill Bonner</a></p>
<p>Addison Wiggin</p>
<p><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/the-revolution-of-1913/">The Revolution of 1913</a> was originally featured on <a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com">Whiskey and Gunpowder</a>. Visit <a href="http://lfb.org/">Laissez Faire Books</a> for the best selection of libertarian book titles.</p>
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		<title>Vivien Kellems: Giving the Taxman Hell</title>
		<link>http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/vivien-kellems-giving-the-taxman-hell/</link>
		<comments>http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/vivien-kellems-giving-the-taxman-hell/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Jan 2012 22:04:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wendy McElroy</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Personal Liberties]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[income tax]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tax resistance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vivien Kellems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[withholding tax]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[If principles are expressed through people, then Vivien Kellems’s life (1896-1975) shouts out that business is not the handmaiden of government. For over 25 years the Westport, Connecticut industrialist battled the federal withholding tax, which she refused to collect from employees’ wages. If the government wanted her “to be their agent,” Kellems declared, they “have [...]<p><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/vivien-kellems-giving-the-taxman-hell/">Vivien Kellems: Giving the Taxman Hell</a> was originally featured on <a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com">Whiskey and Gunpowder</a>. Visit <a href="http://lfb.org/">Laissez Faire Books</a> for the best selection of libertarian book titles.</p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If principles are expressed through people, then Vivien Kellems’s life (1896-1975) shouts out that business is not the handmaiden of government.</p>
<p>For over 25 years the Westport, Connecticut industrialist battled the federal withholding tax, which she refused to collect from employees’ wages. If the government wanted her “to be their agent,” Kellems declared, they “have to pay me, and I want a badge.”</p>
<p>In <em>For a New Liberty</em>, economist Murray Rothbard discussed Kellems’s stance: “What moral principle justifies the government’s forcing employers to act as its unpaid tax collectors? The withholding principle, of course, is the linchpin of the whole federal income tax system. Without the steady and relatively painless process of deducting the tax from the worker’s paycheck, the government could never hope to raise the high levels of tax from the workers in one lump sum.”</p>
<p><a href="http://lfb.org/shop/political-science/toil-taxes-and-trouble/" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/WHISKEY/010412_book1.png" alt="" align="right" border="0" /></a></p>
<p><strong>“Temporary” Measure</strong></p>
<p>The withholding tax on income had been introduced in 1943 as a temporary measure to finance World War II. Called “the Victory Tax,” it required businesses to use their own resources to withhold taxes, to maintain records, and to remit money; mistakes or noncomplaince could result in severe penalties. Thus businesses became unpaid accountants and tax collectors for the federal government.</p>
<p>After the war there was no sign of withholding’s repeal and so Kellems, who had master’s degree in economics and a nearly completed Ph.D, ceased to comply. Her rebellion was based on far more than the lack of a badge.</p>
<p>In her 1952 book, <a href="http://lfb.org/shop/political-science/toil-taxes-and-trouble/" target="_blank"><em>Toil, Taxes and Trouble</em></a>, Kellems explained that her rebellion was based on constitutional grounds. Article I Section 2, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution declares, “Representatives and direct taxes shall be apportioned among the several States . . . according to their respective Numbers. . . .” Section 9, Clause 4 states, “No capitation, or other direct, Tax shall be laid, unless in proportion to the Census or Enumeration. . . .”</p>
<p>Kellems concluded, “[O]ur forefathers bound fast the hands of Congress and secured the liberty and freedom of the American people. How? By making it utterly impossible to levy an income tax. An income tax is certainly a direct tax [which] must be paid by the person receiving the income. By specifying that direct taxes must be levied in accordance with the number of people, not upon what they produced, as in the days of ancient Egypt, an income tax was simply out of the question.”</p>
<p>(Contrary to Kellems’s position, however, Americans courts have long held that the income tax is a constitutional indirect tax.)</p>
<p><strong>Asked for Prosecution</strong></p>
<p>In February 1948 Kellems publicly invited the government to prosecute her. Instead, four IRS agents arrived and demanded $1,685.40 even though her employees had been paying the correct amount. The rebuffed agents intimidated her bank into surrending that amount from her account.</p>
<p>The conflict became famous nationally when television shows such as “Meet the Press” interviewed Kellems. On Eleanor Roosevelt’s 1950s talk show, “Today With Mrs. Roosevelt,” Kellems explained, “As you know, Congress can pass all of the laws it wishes to. The President may sign all of the laws that he wishes to. But no law is a valid law in our country until it has been declared constitutional by the Supreme Court. Any citizen doubting the constitutionality of a law has the right, and in my opinion the duty, to break the law in order to provide a test case. That is all I did.”</p>
<p>Kellems also organized a nationwide group called the Liberty Belles and Boys to seek the repeal of the withholding tax.</p>
<p><strong>Sues the Government</strong></p>
<p>In 1949 tax agents demanded $6,100. Despite proof that her employees had paid their own withholding, the agents once again forced her bank to turn over the money. In January 1950 Kellems sued for its return in the federal district court in New Haven. She was not permitted to argue constitutional grounds, but she secured a full refund nonetheless.</p>
<p>Eventually Kellems abandoned her legal pursuit of the IRS because of its expense, but she never abandoned the fight. In 1969 she disobeyed a court order to produce financial records on the grounds that it violated her Fifth Amendment rights. According to some reports, she also refused to file tax returns; other reports claim she filed blank forms. In a 1975 interview with the Los Angeles Times &#8212; the same year as her death &#8212; Kellums declared, “Our tax law is a 1,598-page hydra-headed monster and I’m going to attack and attack and attack until I have ironed out every fault in it.”</p>
<p>This little known and indomitable crusader deserves a place in individualist history, standing proudly beside contemporaries such as Rose Wilder Lane and Isabel Paterson.</p>
<p>Regards,</p>
<p>Wendy McElroy</p>
<p><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/vivien-kellems-giving-the-taxman-hell/">Vivien Kellems: Giving the Taxman Hell</a> was originally featured on <a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com">Whiskey and Gunpowder</a>. Visit <a href="http://lfb.org/">Laissez Faire Books</a> for the best selection of libertarian book titles.</p>
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		<title>Containment Is Spreading</title>
		<link>http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/containment-is-spreading/</link>
		<comments>http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/containment-is-spreading/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Apr 2007 20:13:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Shedlock</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[containment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foreclosures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[housing problems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[income tax]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[property tax]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[subprime mortgages]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[In spite of Bernanke&#8217;s claims that problems in housing are &#8220;well contained,&#8221; most of the evidence appears to be contrary. State Tax Revenues Slump In &#8220;Housing Slump Pinches States in Pocketbook,&#8221; The New York Times is reporting on tax shortfalls: In Florida, tax revenue is &#8220;projected to drop this year for the first time since [...]<p><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/containment-is-spreading/">Containment Is Spreading</a> was originally featured on <a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com">Whiskey and Gunpowder</a>. Visit <a href="http://lfb.org/">Laissez Faire Books</a> for the best selection of libertarian book titles.</p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In spite of Bernanke&#8217;s claims that problems in housing are &#8220;well contained,&#8221; most of the evidence appears to be contrary.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>State Tax Revenues Slump</strong></p>
<p align="left">In &#8220;Housing Slump Pinches States in Pocketbook,&#8221; The <em>New York Times</em> is reporting on tax shortfalls:</p>
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<div>In Florida, tax revenue is &#8220;projected to drop this year for the first time since the energy crisis of the 1970s&#8221;</div>
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<div>&#8220;New Jersey could face a $2.5 billion shortfall by mid-2008,&#8221; according to Gov. Jon S. Corzine, and &#8220;may lease its turnpike or its lottery to a private company to raise money&#8221;</div>
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<div>In California, &#8220;income tax receipts in January were $1 billion less than forecast&#8221;</div>
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<div>&#8220;Maryland&#8217;s real estate transfer tax revenue has tumbled by 22% this fiscal year&#8221;</div>
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<div>&#8220;Connecticut&#8217;s real estate transfer tax revenue, which state budget analysts predicted would fall by 3.6%, is down by 13.3% so far.&#8221;</div>
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<p align="left">&#8220;&#8216;It&#8217;s the year of the housing hangover,&#8217; said Sean M. Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida.&#8221;</p>
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<p align="center"><strong>Lower Earnings, Less Capital Spending, Less Hiring</strong></p>
<p align="left"><em>MarketWatch</em> is reporting, &#8220;Lower earnings could cut into capital spending, hiring&#8221;:</p>
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<p align="left">&#8220;U.S. corporate profits fell in the fourth quarter of 2006, signaling the end of one of the greatest profit cycles in postwar era, economists say.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;Economic growth is slowing, hurting corporations&#8217; top line. Meanwhile, costs are rising, squeezing profit margins.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;&#8216;Profits growth has turned decisively down, and the end is not yet in sight,&#8217; wrote Gabriel Stein, an economist for Lombard Street Research.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;&#8216;As the expansion matures and unit labor costs rise, profit margins will be under pressure,&#8217; said Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital&#8230;</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;&#8216;The deceleration of profits may be dramatic,&#8217; wrote Mickey Levy, chief economist for Bank of America, in a research note. &#8216;If so, weaker profit growth may affect business hiring and capital spending decisions, and will likely influence financial markets.&#8217;</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;&#8216;Weaker profits may undercut any rebound in capital spending,&#8217; Levy said.&#8221;</p>
</blockquote>
<p align="center"><strong>Pink Slips Litter Loan Industry</strong></p>
<p align="left">The <em>Chicago Tribune</em> is reporting, &#8220;Turmoil in the subprime mortgage sector hits some workers as hard as borrowers&#8221;:</p>
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<p align="left">&#8220;The tumult in the subprime mortgage sector has hit some of the industry&#8217;s employees as hard as its borrowers.</p>
<p align="left"> &#8221;Nationwide, job losses in the category that includes mortgage lending, real estate, and construction climbed 346% in the first quarter, to 21,245 from 4,764 in the same period last year, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas Inc.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;&#8216;It&#8217;s a whole sector of the economy that&#8217;s leaking,&#8217; Chief Executive John A. Challenger said.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;In California, the 3,679 mortgage industry jobs lost in the quarter pales compared with the 70,000 construction jobs that economists figure could disappear over the next two years. When considered individually, though, the loss of a higher-paying white-collar position can be more significant for the economy.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;&#8216;Each one of these finance jobs is worth at least two construction jobs,&#8217; said Ryan Ratcliff, an economist with UCLA&#8217;s Anderson School of Business.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;Added Esmael Adibi, director of the Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange: &#8216;The ripple effect is significant.&#8217;</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;The layoff wave began about a year ago, when Ameriquest Mortgage Co. fired one-third of its employees. In December, Ownit unloaded 800 workers. Last month, the Orange-based parent of Ameriquest Mortgage and Argent Mortgage Co. announced major layoffs, as did Fremont General Corp. of Santa Monica. General Electric Co.&#8217;s WMC mortgage unit, a major player in the subprime business, said it would snip 20% of its payroll.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;&#8216;We went on a big real estate bender,&#8217; Ratcliff said. &#8216;And this is sort of the beginning of the hangover.&#8217;</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;Shelly Dusing of Aliso Viejo, who lost her $48,000-a-year job at Ameriquest last month, said she would not return to the industry. In fact, she said she would work &#8216;anywhere but&#8217; because mortgage lending was too volatile, &#8216;whether you&#8217;re prime or subprime.&#8217;</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;For Dusing, who&#8217;s nearly eight months pregnant, the situation at Ameriquest became so tense that getting fired was a relief.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;&#8216;You go to work every day and you don&#8217;t know if you&#8217;re going to have a job or not. You don&#8217;t know if your badge is going to open the door,&#8217; she said. &#8216;We knew bad things were coming and it was just a matter of time&#8217;&#8221;&#8230;</p>
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<p align="left">&#8220;The abrupt end is a bitter memory for Tamika Williams, her family&#8217;s primary breadwinner when Ownit collapsed shortly after she bought a home in Phoenix.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;The 29-year-old mother of four lost a job that paid $21 an hour, plus commissions. Williams landed a new job March 2, making $12 an hour handling collections for a bank.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;&#8216;I&#8217;m surprised I haven&#8217;t called myself yet,&#8217; she said.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;The end came quickly at Ownit, said Lisa Seeley, another former employee.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;&#8216;Now you wake up every morning and wonder, &#8220;Who&#8217;s wheezed their last today?,&#8221;&#8216; she said. &#8216;If there&#8217;s anybody who isn&#8217;t wondering about their job today, they&#8217;re not paying attention.&#8217;&#8221;</p>
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<p align="center"><strong>Property Tax Soup</strong></p>
<p align="left">The <em>Orange County Register</em> is asking, &#8220;Are Property Taxes in Subprime Soup?&#8221;:</p>
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<p align="left">&#8220;If you&#8217;ve got a mortgage from a subprime lender in deep financial trouble &#8212; and that&#8217;s a good-sized bunch &#8212; you may want to gulp.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;The county&#8217;s tax collector is concerned that some ailing lenders may be unable to get borrowers&#8217; payments to their rightful place, such as prepaid property tax payments.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;&#8216;This is a very serious issue,&#8217; says [tax collector Chris] Street, who adds the unsettling notion that property owners are still liable for a tax bill &#8212; even it goes unpaid due to a lender&#8217;s failure to forward your cash to the tax collector.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;Street&#8217;s not yet seen evidence in his tax collecting efforts of such mistakes or misappropriations. Still, O.C.&#8217;s overall late tax payments are already running at an 11-year high. But one company in the subprime game claims they&#8217;ve witnessed borrowers&#8217; mortgage payments go awry.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;Wall Street banker UBS sued New Century Financial, the once subprime giant now mired in bankruptcy. The UBS beef? That the Irvine [Calif.] lender failed to forward $3.8 million in borrowers&#8217; payments &#8212; plus $1.7 million in escrow payments for house expenses &#8212; to UBS-sponsored owners of certain mortgages.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;A New Century spokeswoman would not comment on the UBS allegations. She did say that protections are in place to keep borrower payments separate from New Century&#8217;s other financial obligations. Court filings indicate that New Century has the right to continue forwarding prepaid bills to tax officials.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;&#8216;I&#8217;m just being prepared that one, two or many of these lenders will have used the money that should have been set aside,&#8217; says Street, who notes that New Century forwarded its borrowers&#8217; tax payments to his office on Friday. The current installment of tax bills is due Tuesday.&#8221;</p>
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<p align="left">Imagine you are a subprime borrower who paid taxes to New Century Finance or some other now bankrupt subprime lender and you wake up and find that those tax escrows you made were not paid. Subprime being what it is, exactly how are you going to come up with $2,000-4,000 or more to pay tax bills you have already paid?</p>
<p align="left">Some borrowers have avoided escrow payments simply because they could not afford those on top of a mortgage. Where are those borrowers going to come up with the money to pay property taxes?</p>
<p align="center"><strong>California Foreclosure Sales Near $2 Billion in March</strong></p>
<p align="left">The <em>Central Valley Business Times</em> is reporting, &#8220;Unprecedented&#8217; foreclosure activity&#8221;:</p>
<blockquote>
<p align="left">&#8220;Foreclosure sales are now 15% of all home sales in California.&#8221;</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;5,316 homes were lost to foreclosure sales in March in California, according to figures compiled by Foreclosure Radar, a Discovery Bay-based foreclosure listings and software company.</p>
<p align="left">&#8220;The homes sold at auction last month represented a 27% increase from February and a 264% increase in the last six months, the company says. Of the $2 billion worth of properties sold in March, 4,796 went back to the lender after receiving no bids, representing $1.82 billion, it says.&#8221;</p>
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<p align="left">4,796 homes out of 5,316 homes at foreclosure sales received no bid. That is a pretty stunning 90% of homes at foreclosures auctions receiving no bid. Obviously, those homes have a bigger mortgage than what they are worth.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Hot Employment Numbers?</strong></p>
<p align="left">In regards to the highly touted 180,000 March payroll numbers, there are some anomalies that need to be addressed. I talked about this in <a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/04/march-employment-numbers-leading.html" target="_blank">&#8220;March Employment Numbers &amp; Leading Indicators,&#8221;</a> and Paul Kasriel talked about the job numbers in <a href="http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content/media/attachment/data/econ_research/0704/document/dd040607.pdf" target="_blank">&#8220;An Autopsy on the March 2007 Employment Situation Report.&#8221;</a> From the latter:</p>
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<p align="left">&#8220;With regard to the 35,800 person increase in general merchandising retail, it seems odd that this accounted for all but 100 positions in the net monthly increase in total retail payrolls. Something very volatile appears to be going on in general merchandizing hiring.General merchandise employment in relation to total retail employment has gone from 18.81% in November 2006 to 19.25% in March 2007, a very sharp reversal, as shown in Chart 5 [below]. I wonder if there are not some seasonal adjustment issues in play here. Whatever the case, if a lot of our job growth is occurring in retailing in general, then this is unlikely to result in strong consumer spending from income growth inasmuch as the average hourly wage in this sector is only $12.74, with only leisure and hospitality paying less ($10.19 per hour). If Circuit City&#8217;s hourly pay cut plan is successful, other retailers might opt for a variation of it, which will lower the wages in this hotbed of employment growth even more.</p>
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<p align="center"><a class="flickr-image" title="phpTnBJLf" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/28114165@N06/2669050118/"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3054/2669050118_6f52bf80a6.jpg" alt="phpTnBJLf" /></a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p align="left">&#8220;Now, let&#8217;s turn to the March 2007 Household Survey, which also provided a surprise in the form of a 0.1 point decline in the unemployment rate, to 4.4% &#8212; matching a cycle low. In terms of age groups, the largest decline in the unemployment rate occurred among teenagers, where the rate fell to 14.5% in March, from 14.9% in February. But the &#8216;adult&#8217; unemployment rate also fell a tick, to 3.9%, matching its cycle low. Did teenage employment increase in March? No, it declined by 59,000. What was driving force behind the sharp decline in the teenage unemployment rate? A 0.6 point decline in the teenage participation rate to a cycle low 41.6%. In fact, as shown in Chart 6, the March 2007 teenage participation rate of 41.6% is a post-WWII low&#8221;&#8230;</p>
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<p align="center"><a class="flickr-image" title="phpjxveiv" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/28114165@N06/2668230311/"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3081/2668230311_7d5661c9fc.jpg" alt="phpjxveiv" /></a> </p>
<p align="left">Judging from the enormous drop in the teenage participation rate, the latest drop in the unemployment rate is a complete fabrication of reality. While Kasriel and I focus on different aspects of the payroll numbers, we both reach the same conclusion, expressed by Kasriel: &#8220;In sum, an autopsy of the March 2007 Employment Situation report suggests that labor market conditions are not nearly as robust as the headlines that accompanied the report.&#8221;</p>
<p align="left">Now factor in the fact that 2.1 million homeowners missed a mortgage payment in 2006, according to <em>USA Today.</em> Does that look like containment? I suggest that the containment is spreading, even as Bernanke and others deny its existence.</p>
<p align="left">Regards,<br />
Mish</p>
<p align="left">April 10, 2007</p>
<p><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/containment-is-spreading/">Containment Is Spreading</a> was originally featured on <a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com">Whiskey and Gunpowder</a>. Visit <a href="http://lfb.org/">Laissez Faire Books</a> for the best selection of libertarian book titles.</p>
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