Everything we know about classic economic theory suggests the U.S. economy should be experiencing Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation right now, thanks to the nearly $2.2 trillion the U.S. Federal Reserve has pumped into the system. But we’re not…yet. Classic economic theory says that money supply can be used to stimulate the economy and our ...read more

“Recovery is here!” the Pollyannas shout. “This is the first sign. And soon all nations will be following with their rate increases.” They talking, of course, about the Australians decision to hike their central bank index rate. And instantly the howls of recovery were on the lips of all the pundits. But ...read more

It's not only the energy markets that threaten the 'low inflation' data now encouraging bondholders to keep buying... The published inflation data are surprisingly unsophisticated in so far as they compare current prices with a snapshot a year earlier. Just over a year ago, oil was every hedge fund manager's favorite speculation. ...read more

In my father's house are many mansions. Surely one of them has a room with no elephants in it.... Not to crunch too many metaphors right here at the top, but a consensus seems to be firming up in the animate jello of the Internet that we have entered the Season ...read more

Two charts and three measures of gold's "real" price today... GOLD'S CURRENT price-tag of $1,000 an ounce suggests big doubts over the US Dollar, its domestic economy, and its status as the world's No.1 reserve currency. Or so we guess after 10 years of watching it quadruple from two-decade lows. But gold ...read more

In many ways it always has been.  Simply put, the economy is at the root of everything we do.  For example, despite President George H.W. Bush’s success with the first Gulf War, he was unseated in 1992 by Bill Clinton’s use of  “It’s The Economy, Stupid!” Did that phrase have any ...read more

Consider economics and governments as resembling a restaurant. In order for there to be a restaurant at all some entrepreneur has to put his money and vision on the line and open it. He has a thing called "overhead," which is irreducible on-going expenses whether he has any customers at all ...read more

Don’t look now, but September is upon us. And so far, so good. Everything is progressing like clockwork. No humidity. No A/C. Absolutely beautiful. Something like the outer bands of Heaven. It’s also the time of year when the Jenkins family winds up plans for an October vacation. This year my ...read more

Always follow the oil market closely, because it will impact the fundamentals of many businesses -- including those we are selling short. Drivers in the U.S. no longer determine the global price of oil. So oil prices can remain high despite a weak labor market -- as we saw in the ...read more

There’s a lot of Internet chatter these days about the possibility of the U.S. government seizing its citizens’ private gold holdings. What are the chances? Well, it’s always good to bear in mind that there is no telling what the government might do. It’s already doing things that were unthinkable just a ...read more