More and more indicators are highly suggestive of an upcoming recession. I recently talked about capital spending, home sales, GDP, auto sales, and manufacturing in "Capital Spending Suggests Hard Landing." This month's free issue of Contrary Investor, called "Deficit Attention Syndrome," contains some interesting charts and commentary on still more indicators ...read more

Economist Paul Kasriel at the Northern Trust has come up with a recession indicator that has called six consecutive recessions with no misses and no false positives dating back to 1962. It does, however, have a single miss in 1960. The condition is an inverted yield curve as measured by ...read more