What happens to high-spending credit-dependent states when the market loses confidence in them has been evident in cases such as Ireland, Portugal and Greece? Among the big financial calamities of 2011 were notably government bond markets. Perversely, some of the big winners of 2011 were also government bond markets.

Market participants have so successfully been conditioned to believe in state bonds as safe assets that when some sovereigns go into fiscal meltdown it only serves as reason to buy even more bonds of the sovereigns that are still standing, even though their fiscal outlook isn’t much better. While the fate of Greek and Italian bonds should have cast serious doubt over the long-term prospect for Bunds, Gilts and Treasuries, it only propelled them to new all-time highs. Strange world.

All policy efforts are now directed toward keeping the overextended credit edifice from correcting. After decades of fiat money fuelled credit growth, the financial system is in large parts an overbuilt house of cards. The system cannot cope with higher yields and wider risk premiums. Those would accelerate the pressure toward deleveraging and debt deflation and default. “When they stop buying bonds, the game is over.”

They still bought bonds in 2011

2011 was another strong year for gold. Despite a brutal beating in the last month of the year, the precious metal produced again double-digit returns for the year as a whole if measured in paper dollars: up 10 percent. I believe that gold will continue to do well, as it remains the essential self-defense asset.

Amazingly, Treasuries did almost as well as gold (+9.6%) and TIPS (inflation-protected Treasuries) did even better. German Bunds benefited from the disaster in other euro bond markets. They pretty much matched Treasuries in terms of total return (currency-adjusted they did less well as the euro declined slightly versus the dollar). This is entirely unjustified because the EMU debt and banking woes will put considerable additional strain on Germany’s public finances. UK Gilts did better than gold and Treasuries, despite rising inflation in the UK, weak growth and a public debt load that is only ever going up.

This cannot go on for long. Bonds are fixed rate investments with finite maturities. The price gains of 2011 have lowered the yields to maturity, in some cases markedly so, and thus diminished the chance of additional gain. Does that mean reversal is imminent? No. Maybe the notion, or better the myth, that the bonds of the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany are risk-free assets can somehow be maintained. Maybe yields can decline even further. Who knows? Personally, I doubt it.

In the case of the US, the fiscal situation seems beyond repair. The Congressional Budget Office publishes its own projections on the long-term fiscal outlook. These are based on some overly rosy economic assumptions and still make for rather grim reading – hundreds of billions of dollars in deficits every year forever. The true path for the U.S.’s public accounts will certainly be much worse. The U.S. has now acquired a habit of running budget deficits to the tune of 10 percent of GDP year after year (more than $1.5 trillion in 2011) and there seems to be no end in sight. There is presently no deflation in the U.S. Neither does the TIPS market expect any. Yet, investors seem happy to hold U.S. government paper at what are certainly negative real yields. Investors are practically paying the U.S. government for the privilege of funding its out-of-control spending.

I have long maintained that government bonds are a bad investment because the endgame for them will either be outright default or inflation. In both cases, as a bondholder, you lose. The outcomes are either default or default. The idea that these debt loads could be elegantly inflated away is nonsense. They are already too big for that. So either you face outright default or, if authorities try to inflate, hyperinflation and currency disaster, and then default. In either case, you will not be repaid with anything of real value.

“Let them eat bonds!”

But are default or inflation and then default really inevitable? What if the present scenario continues forever? This seems to be the new “hope”. It is not a pretty scenario in that it involves the ongoing confiscation of wealth from bondholders but it seems to be less drastic than default or hyperinflation. Could we not work off the excessive stock of debt by suppressing bond yields below (moderate) inflation rates for an extended period of time? Of course, we cannot rely on the self-sacrifice of the bondholder, although he appears rather willing of sacrifice at present. So the government will have to use all its might to force bond-investors into accepting zero or negative returns for an extended period of time. After all, the state is the territorial monopolist of coercion and compulsion. It makes the laws. And controls the banks.

In a state fiat money systems banks must ultimately cease to be private, capitalist enterprises. Many banks have already been fully or partially nationalized. The remaining private ones are under tight, and ever tighter, regulation by the state. Should it not be easy for the state to force banks to invest more in government bonds, even at low or negative real returns? Should it not be possible to redirect whatever saving and credit there is from the private to the public sector?

Such a strategy has been outlined – not advocated- by Russell Napier of CLSA. He calls it ‘repression’. It ultimately involves rather draconian market intervention in order to continuously force the diversion of capital from private use to public use at artificially low levels of compensation. At some stage it will require capital controls.

But let’s face it: most of what we have experienced over the past three years in terms of government intervention would have been simply unimaginable only five years ago. We should therefore not be surprised if market intervention becomes ever more heavy-handed and is used increasingly to favour the funding of the public sector.

That such a policy will be implemented, and ever more boldly, I have no doubt. In fact, I predicted it in my book. See chapter 10 of Paper Money Collapse – The Folly of Elastic Money and the Coming Monetary Breakdown, in particular pages 226 -228. I called it ‘the nationalization of money and credit’. It is a phase in the crisis but it is not an endgame. Where I disagree with the above mentioned writers is the following: Repression, to the extent that it works, will not reduce government debt, and besides, it won’t work.

Consider the recent environment: Certain governments have been able to borrow directly from their central banks via quantitative easing and in the bond market at low or even negative real interest rates. Does that mean they have reduced the amount of outstanding debt? Are such hugely advantageous conditions used to cut back the debt load?

No. The opposite is the case. Access to cheap credit, whether that credit was provided by the printing press, obedient bond investors or hyper-regulated banks, has allowed states to run larger budget deficits and accumulate more debt. Remember, we are not talking here about the workout of a debt-situation resulting from a war, a natural disaster, or some other one-off event. We are talking about the modern welfare state with its ever-growing commitments and increasingly out-of-control spending. Only cutting off the state from cheap funding will ever constrain it, not giving it access to more resources more cheaply.

We do not live in Paul Krugman’s parallel universe of Keynesian fiscal stimulus, where every dollar spent by the government magically translates into 2 dollars of real GDP growth. Here, on planet Earth, the constant shift of resources from private markets to the state bureaucracy weakens the economy. Shrinking the private sector and growing the public sector kills economic growth. In the perverse logic of the modern welfare state. This then requires even more state spending in the next period. As the economy continues to struggle, public sector outlays will grow while tax receipts will shrink.

‘Repression’, to the extent that it succeeds in shifting resources from the private market to the state, makes the crisis worse. It must lead to more debt, more capital misallocation and a weaker economy. We will not save our economy by trampling on the remaining bits of functioning capitalism and by confiscating more resources from the private sector. ‘Repression’ is self-defeating.

Additionally, it won’t work. Private wealth-holders will not sit on their hands forever while their hard-earned savings are being confiscated by the state. If banks become mere tools to fund the state and thus provide zero or negative real returns to shareholders and depositors, shareholders and depositors will pull their money from the banks.

But there is no alternatives for the depositors, is there? Of course, there is: Gold.

As the enemies of gold in the establishment financial press never tire of reminding us, gold pays no interest and no dividend. Because of storage and insurance costs, it is a ‘negative carry asset’. But in an environment of ‘repression’, so are government bonds and bank deposits.

With zero or negative returns guaranteed on supposedly ‘safe’ government bonds and bank deposits, ever more investors, including small savers, will turn toward gold which has the additional advantage that its upside is practically unlimited – its price can double, triple or quadruple (all of which I expect) as long as paper money debasement continues (which I consider a near certainty).

Of course, a determined state will counter any evasion of controls with more controls. Maybe we will see taxes on gold investment or even restrictions on trading and owning gold. Via capital controls the country could be locked down. All of this is, of course, hugely destructive for the economy and ultimately self-defeating. I expect that we will see quite a bit of this stuff in coming years. Try and be prepared!

But this will not be part of the solution. It will make matters worse. And it means that the endgame is still either voluntary default or hyperinflation and default. ‘Repression’ or ‘nationalization of money and credit’ is a policy of desperation. It is not a solution. It won’t be the endgame.

Regards,

Detlev Schlicter

Paper Money Collapse

When the Bond Buying Stops, the Game Is Over was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.

“The U.S. Treasury and Labor Departments will ask for public comment as soon as next week on ways to promote the conversion of 401(k) savings and Individual Retirement Accounts into annuities or other steady payment streams, according to Assistant Labor Secretary Phyllis C. Borzi and Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary Mark Iwry, who are spearheading the effort.

“Annuities generally guarantee income until the retiree’s death, and often that of a surviving spouse as well. They are designed to protect against the risk that retirees outlive their savings, a danger made clear by market losses suffered by older Americans over the last year, David Certner, legislative counsel for AARP, said in an interview.”

Now ostensibly, the plan to offer an annuity option for 401(k) plans will seem sensible. But don’t be fooled.

This is the beginning of a money grab by the Feds for the $3.6 trillion in assets held by U.S. 401(k)s. The Feds need that money to finance the deficit. This is where some of the money to fund the deficits may come from, answering a question we asked earlier in the week. What you can’t take, you’ll have to print.

But right now, the Feds can’t just take that 401(k) money. Well, they could. But it would crash stocks and infuriate the public, leading to some civic violence. What’s more, it would feel like theft as well as looking (and being) like it. So they have to dress the plan up as something that’s better for savers.

They’re trotting out the idea that a defined benefit pension plan is better than defined contribution plan (which is true, if it’s funded well). A defined benefit plan guarantees you income in your old age years. A defined contribution plan (what we have now) just guarantees money flows into the stock market (which is good for the financial services industry, but don’t guarantee you’ll have any money when you really need it later in life).

The U.S. Treasury Department and the Obama administration are exploring ways to encourage U.S. savers to buy more annuities or investment vehicles composed of “safe” assets. What constitutes safe? Why 30-year U.S. government bonds of course! Thus, the government can encourage people to buy what the Chinese and the Japanese and most other U.S. creditors don’t want to touch any longer.

The trouble with an annuity or 30-year bond is that you get crushed by inflation. In principle, it’s not different that a zero coupon bond. You get your nominal investment back upon redemption. But you are not compensated for inflation and your money is tied up, instead of working harder for you elsewhere.

It’s obvious what the Fed’s get out of this: a ready source of new funds to buy their bonds. This kicks the can of unsustainable deficit spending down the road a few months, or perhaps a few years. But it doesn’t change the fundamentally destructive path of U.S. fiscal policy.

What it does tell you is that mischief is afoot among the wealth stealers of the modern nation state? Faced with a failed funding model, they are beginning their cash grab. This takes the form of higher taxes. But the big bounty is the retirement savings of millions of Americans.

This solves the problem of having to sell the debt to foreign investors. And it solves the problem of having to make tough budget deficits. Just issue more debt and make the super funds buy it with your money.

If you think that’s balderdash or won’t happen, you’re being naïve. It won’t happen overnight. But it will happen gradually. It’s evolving towards that already. If they can’t get it through tax or royalty revenues, the tax posse will get it by any means necessary, which means your super assets are an obvious target.

Alarmist? Irresponsible? You decide. But we can see the evolution of this as clear as day, even if saying it in public is bad form or taboo. But now is the time to say the taboo things.

Regards,
Dan Denning
The Daily Reckoning Australia

January 18, 2010

Will the Feds Fund Deficits with 401(k)s? was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.

Say like Coca Cola re-launches New Coke, but people actually like it. Would that mean the laws of physics had been repealed? Or would you need to change what you think…?

“Gold and bonds do not usually go up or down together. But try telling that to the markets over the last two months,” writes Mark Hulbert at MarketWatch.

“Since early August, in fact, gold bullion has risen by around 10% and the Treasury’s 10-year yield, which moves inversely with Treasury prices, has fallen by nearly 15%.

“These moves are substantial, in other words, and more than just day-to-day noise in the data. What’s going on?”

Put another way, “If the gold price is so high, why are 10-year Treasury yields so low?” asks a columnist at EuroWeek, the capital markets newspaper.

To repeat: Rising gold says people fear inflation. Or so both Hulbert and EuroWeek reckon, along with pretty much the rest of the planet. But inflation fears would mean rising interest rates and falling Treasury bonds…and that’s the very opposite of what’s actually happening to government debt.

“Either way you look at it then, recent trends are unsustainable,” says Hulbert. “Something’s got to give” apparently. And it won’t be his assumption that gold and bonds shouldn’t rise together.

“If central banks take the punch bowl away at the wrong time,” says EuroWeek, “those who have bought Treasuries will have been on the right track and we will face deflation. Whereas if they let the party go on for too long the gold hoarders will have been right…and we’ll be wheeling our cash for bread around in wheelbarrows.”

The key assumption that makes these two things impossible, of course, is that gold only goes higher on strong inflation…a demonstrably idiot claim given a quick glance at the 1930s. Or this decade’s four-fold gains. Or the 50% surge of fall/winter 2008.

Back to gold in a moment, however. Because while bonds say deflation, “Equities say reflation” as the Pragmatic Capitalist notes, together with David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff and pretty much everyone else. “The stock market is telling a very different story from the bond market,” TPC explains, and “unfortunately for equity investors, they have a poor record of forecasting the future when compared to bond investors.”

Yet again, these two things “don’t typically rise alongside” each other. Yet stocks have risen more than 11% since mid-June, while the 10-year Treasury yield (which moves inversely to bond prices, remember) has dropped nearly 0.7%.

“There have been 4 famous cases of such bond and stock divergences in the last 20 years. The most famous is the summer of 1987. We all know what occurred then.  The other three cases were fall ’94, summer ’98 and winter 2000. All three preceded declines in the market. Of all 4 instances, three of them preceded 15% declines in the S&P 500.”

Now throw in rising gold prices, and we’ve got rising stocks…rising bonds…AND rising gold. Hell, since Wednesday this week they’ve even pulled back together, too!

Is the moon made of cheese or what?

The curve-ball in all this – or so we guess here at BullionVault tonight – is not gold, nor stocks, nor even bonds. It’s the underlying guess-work, intuition, assumptions.

That gold only rises when the cost of living soars…or bonds only rise when stocks go down…or that a flood of money, created at zero per cent rates, can’t drive all things higher together, even the promise of cash redeemed in the future…lapped up by a pensions and finance industry faced with $11 trillion in Treasury-debt supplied, but a central bank vowing to step in if buying fails and cap any rise in rates.

Because right alongside, hedge funds are buying futures and options with virtually free finance. What’s not to love in this über-Reflation Rally redux…?

Regards,
Adrian Ash
BullionVault

October 21, 2009

Inflation, Deflation and Reflation at Once was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.