Drug companies large and small have renewed their interest in one specific health care sector. It’s a true form of preventative medicine — a rapidly growing field that’s already decimated countless dangerous and deadly diseases.

Now biotechs and Big Pharma are in a race against time. Their mission is clear: Rid the world of the onslaught of superbugs and diseases that could cause the next great epidemic. And they’ll use second-generation technology to create some of the world’s most powerful drug saviors.

There’s money to be made in this field — and it hasn’t gone unnoticed by some of the planet’s top investors.

George Soros’ resume is nothing short of impressive. His legendary Quantum Fund returned investors an average 42.5 percent per year for 10 years — a total of 3,365 percent gains. In 2007, he raked in a staggering $2.9 billion, making him the Street’s No.1 earner for the year…

And then there’s Warren Buffett — an investor who needs no introduction. An initial $10,000 investment in Buffett’s famous holding company Berkshire Hathaway would have been worth more than $1.2 million at the end of last year…

Sure, they’ve made their money by occasionally taking different routes. However, Soros and Buffett are “sharing” some intriguing ideas these days, according to James Altucher, managing director of Formula Capital and author of Trade Like Warren Buffett. The two moguls are putting up big bucks for health care, he says, with a concentration on vaccines…

This bit of info may go against perceptions of Buffett as the ultimate value investor. Altucher claims this is a common misconception. Rather, Buffett is what he calls a “long-term demographic investor.”

That’s why Buffett and Soros are investing in health care and biotech stocks like GlaxoSmithKlein, Johnson & Johnson and Sanofi Aventis. These companies have a lot in common — most importantly, they are the world’s most prolific developers of vaccine treatments.

I’ve found an opportunity Warren Buffett can’t get his hands on — an opportunity to get in on not one, but two emerging biotechs in a race to create the ultimate cancer vaccine.

For years, the vaccine landscape was ruled by the basics — measles, mumps and rubella. And, of course, annual flu shots for the elderly and those affected with immune disorders. The market for vaccines was relatively stagnant. In 2005, vaccines accounted for less than three percent of the global pharmaceutical industry, according to the Wharton School of business.

It just wasn’t very profitable to make cheap flu shots. And the antiquated process of incubating the inactive viruses to go into the shots is time-consuming, and the shots are easily contaminated.

Now we’re looking at a transition to a different kind of vaccine. In fact, we saw the wave of next-generation vaccines hit the development pipeline as early as three years ago. Professors at Wharton saw the transition coming:

“In the past, a lot of attention was paid to the childhood vaccines, but more and more research and development is focusing on vaccines for adolescents and young adults, or even on adult vaccines for diseases such as cancer,” Wharton health care systems professor Patricia Danzon commented more than two years ago. “The health system approach to vaccines really has to adapt to accommodate these new products.”

This quote appears very prophetic today. Just look at Merck’s recent success…

Merck’s most recent quarter, reported in May 2008, saw revenue rising to $5.8 billion, with much of its sales growth attributed to Gardasil, the company’s blockbuster cervical cancer vaccine.

Merck, along with many of the other major drug companies, is in the process of developing numerous vaccine treatments for a variety of diseases — some common, some deadly. But there is also a select group of micro caps poised to make major medical breakthroughs with their proprietary vaccine technology.

One of these companies is a biotechnology company focused on active cellular immunotherapy. Essentially, this is a method of using a patient’s own cells to stimulate the body’s immune system to attack a cancer cell as if it were a virus or bacteria.

You see, that’s the main problem with the human immune system and the current methods of cancer treatments. The immune system doesn’t fight cancer cells, because it doesn’t recognize them as a threat. And chemotherapy attacks and kills all cells, even healthy ones. Now a better treatment is in the works — one that teaches the body to target the cancer cells.

Using active cellular immunotherapy, this company has developed a vaccine that trains the immune system to recognize and eliminate prostate cancer cells. The company is also looking at tweaking the drug to fight other types of cancer, including breast, ovarian and colorectal cancers.

Clinical trials have shown that administering the treatment to patients with late-stage cancer prolongs life by about four months. These few months may not sound significant, but they’re a start. And these results are impressing leading doctors of cancer research.

Regards,
Greg Guenthner
July 23, 2008

Small-Cap Vaccines was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.

This new austerity craze — if/as/when it arrives — will impose hardships on many American companies. But a select few might actually benefit.

The cause(s) of downsizing are pretty clear. Home values are falling so sharply that very few homeowners can still pull equity out of their houses. Stock prices are also drifting lower, more or less. Meanwhile, inflation is ramping up.

Prices are rising in Europe as in America. Bread is up 12 percent in Germany over the last 12 months. Butter has gone up 45 percent. Milk, 25 percent.

Higher prices often stem from printing more dollars. “Force-feeding the rest of the world $2 billion per day (more consumption),” Warren Buffett reminded us last week, “is inconsistent with a stable dollar (more inflation).”

We share Mr. Buffett’s concern. Bernanke keeps printing. Politicians keep promising. Bridges keep crumbling. Wars keep spending.

With regret, we read last week that the projected total cost of medical care for U.S. veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars will top $500 billion, a figure on par with the total military spending to wage these wars to date. And speaking of military might, Defense Secretary Robert Gates estimated in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Pentagon will spend upward of $685 billion next year alone. That’s $170 billion more than the $515 billion the president proposed in his first-ever $3 trillion budget.

If that weren’t enough, Gates doesn’t even expect that number to stick. “I have no confidence in that figure,” he admitted. You can expect the estimate to rise in the near future.

A hundred billion here…a hundred billion there. Who’s counting?

Apparently, no one.

But that’s not to say the S&P can’t weather the storm. The companies representing the Standard & Poor’s 500 index now derive 49 percent of revenue from foreign markets, up from 30 percent in 2001. Meaning, those with money to burn (Southeast Asian consumers) should keep earnings reports strong. Stronger repatriated currencies should only bolster this trend.

Unfortunately, many Americans believe a strong S&P equals a strong American economy. We tend to see another American economy. We see an economy riddled with debt, more debt and even more debt. We see the American consumer eerily close to tapping out. Thirty-four percent of Americans now believe they are among the “have-nots.”

It serves to reason. More than 405,000 homeowners lost their homes to foreclosure last year.

Most middle-income Americans, the ones driving our buy-now, pay-later economy, have spent well beyond their means. Americans currently perpetuate a negative savings rate. That can’t last forever.

Cheap oil and cheap credit have fueled this era of consumption…this gilded age of instant gratification.

But the days of ultra-cheap oil are firmly behind us. The U.S. government began pricing oil at $225 per barrel in the not-too-distant future, says our oilman Byron King. The U.S. Navy, for example, is currently designing future ships using $225 per barrel as a baseline for the price of fossil fuel. The days of ultra-cheap credit look to be waning, as well.

The endgame: Americans will be forced to consume less and less. It seems to us that cutbacks are the only option.

So investors should be very cautious on stocks reliant on American consumers. We suggest you take special note to exercise caution regarding companies like Apple Computer, Starbucks or P.F. Chang’s China.

We have no particular prejudice against any particular one of those companies. In fact, we could have easily picked three different businesses.

Simply put, if John Q. Public lost his house and credit card, we imagine he’d use his last $20 to buy toilet paper, Folgers and a pack of smokeswell before he made another dinner reservation on his 2008 iMac while sipping a $3 cup of joe. Furthermore, these companies aren’t cheap.

As for what to buy, ask yourself: Can a company raise prices?

Think of things you need. Beer and cigarettes come to mind. Well, you may not need these items, but I’ll use them to illustrate a point.

When’s the last time you actually looked at the price of one beer versus another? I’m not talking Heineken versus Pabst Blue Ribbon, mind you. I’m talking about Heineken versus Corona…or Bud Light versus Miller Lite. Customers in this sector buy on preference. And they buy a few more cases when the price is cheap.

One could make the same case for shampoo and bandages. The point: When times are tight, we’ll still continue (hopefully) washing our hair and staunching our wounds.

You also want to ask yourself: Can a business control its basic costs? When 1.2 billion Chinese start demanding a protein diet, can P.F. Chang’s easily pass on its input costs (higher meat prices) to a cash-strapped consumer? Will margins suffer?

You get the idea. So for those readers stubbornly loyal to the American economy, we believe the best American equities right now are top-quality blue chip stocks that provide staples to the American and foreign consumer. Stocks like Exxon, Johnson & Johnson and the Altria Group come to mind.

We’re not recommending these businesses. We’re only using their names to make a point: Downsizing is the next big thing.

Regards,
Christopher Hancock
May 2, 2008

Consumer Downsizing was originally featured on Whiskey and Gunpowder. Visit Laissez Faire Books for the best selection of libertarian book titles.