The Top Ten Things to Worry About Surviving in a Bad Economic Climate
Nov 16th, 2009 | By Linda Brady Traynham | Category: Featured, Morning Whiskey
I staked out my position on the Doom & Gloom side back in 1992 when I was shocked by the problem I discuss first. What should you be concerned about? Start with the basics: what do you think you might have to survive? No point in making plans if you aren’t worried about something. Here are the top ten contenders:
1. At the current rate of taxation, even if nothing deteriorates, how much money does your wife need to live on after you are gone? The classic rule is “80% of your highest income plus a paid for house.” Right. If you make $100,000/year, you need to accumulate through savings or insurance $1.6M in capital at 5% interest. Problems: inheritance taxes are due to cut back in, and Uncle definitely wants a chunk of $1.6. Worse, the interest will be taxed as income and she isn’t going to find 5% interest. Let us suppose that she has $1000/mo in Social Security—a little over the average, but you’ve got a good job. A loving government will take roughly 10% of that away from her immediately too pay for Medicare and has already announced a 20% increase in fees over the next three years…with no increase in COLA, or the “Cost Of Living Allowance.” According to the Feds there is no inflation, hence her costs will not rise. We would love to know where those who make such pronouncements buy groceries, gasoline, socks, and tires. Supposing naively that she pays no income tax, if she puts the $250,000 in insurance you may have arranged for her in a CD at 1.5%, at the end of the first year she will have $3,750 in interest plus the theoretical $11,100 in Social Insecurity, for a total income of $14,850. Social Security probably won’t cover the house note you almost certainly have, and houses aren’t selling well. Her alternatives are to find a job or live on what she has for three years and hope she can find husband. That is certainly neither a safe nor a dignified plan, although it may make more sense than buying lottery tickets. The worst part is, that’s the best I can foresee for her.
2. The Greater Depression arrives, as it almost certainly will. It doesn’t matter whether you’re married or single, how safe is your job? 26,000,000 of the things have disappeared already in this century, and unless you are among the 40% of the populace which works for some governmental entity or a CEO you night want to do a little worrying. Japan is on the twenthieth year of their last depression, with a brand new government devoted to the project of becoming an economic block with India, and a few sprats such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, hunks of Indonesia, and so forth. Yup, our little island nation friend is going to grow up, leave the nest, and devote itself to destroying the dollar. What they plan to do with the two trillion or so they hold I have no idea, but if they knock the dollar out as the reserve currency they have some notions. The ironic part is that those dollars have little value at present and are under pressure from all sides, from Bernanke and Geithner’s government-sanctioned counterfeiting and money-laundering (swooshing the new cash around through Treasuries and the market, for example), to cheerful plots in the Middle East and BRIC. It’s coming, get ready for it.
3. The stock market takes a 40% thud at the year’s end, the bond market crashes, the ARM supply has 80% set to re-arm, commercial real estate looks like a yeast vat it bubbles so freely, and a lot more banks are set to fail. Some may even be “set up” to fail. These government-made disasters are pretty much set in stone and will coincide with your other choices.
4. Government revenues are down 17%, the jobless rate is at 17% by rational accounting methods, and a great many states have balanced budget requirements. They will have only two recourses: raise taxes again, or cut jobs and “services.” ARE we having fun yet? 25% of those working are paying all of the income taxes and virtually all property taxes—and schools and bureaucracies demand more money every year. Protests against government spending and taxes are becoming more visible.
5. OPEC members have been running on the American Plan in large part, tossing around bread and services to keep their citizens from expressing noisy opinions of fleets of silver Mercedes Benze automobiles, some of them diamond studded. At one point in the last year it took Saudia Arabia, as I recall, $70/barrel just to cover the “social services” portion of their budget. Basically, every dime the Sauds get for a barrel these days is already committed to welfare, which means it is rather expensive to give away their declining oil supply. Throw the peak oil mess and the miraculous never-depleting “reserves” OPEC nations claim into this bucket. Meanwhile, back on the home front, the Greens are fully in control; drilling rights that had been negotiated were blocked recently, coal is threatened under cap and tax, don’t even mention nuclear power, and hydroelectric dams stand idle because the water has been flushed uselessly to help dear little fishies. Oh, and the crops failed in California when the water was diverted from irrigation.
6. The citizenry of these “united” states turns ugly for a variety of reasons, ranging from food or energy scarcity, taxation, the avalanche of new socialistic legislation, union members who have priced themselves out of jobs, racial or religious riots, and/or a hearty disinclination to put up with this any more. For an eyeful, ask Google how many states and a group of islands have strong secessionist movements. Funny Hawaii ne! Seems like they want Queen Liliuokalani’s throne back, and who can blame them? The real situation is that Hawaii has belonged to Japanese Democrats since I was graduated from the University of Hawaii, all those decades ago.
7. Some combination of the above appears, and the government proves that a government no longer strong enough to give the masses what they want is still strong enough to implement everything from the War Powers Act to the “PATRIOT” act, and turns completely totalitarian on us. Obama declares a national emergency, dismisses Congress (don’t come back boy and girl millionaires; your cushy jobs have been abolished), and pursuant to Executive Order 11921, armed, uniformed thugs show up on your doorstep and loot your house of all foodstuffs, alcohol, tobacco, firearms, valuables, and anything else any member of the team fancies. De facto gun registration is becoming de jure as it is being sneaked quietly through Congress disguised as “a simple IRS measure.” It requires a tax of $50 a year on every gun you own—or admit owning—your fingerprints, and submitting to government psychological examinations on demand, as well as other unsavory regulations. Penalties for being in possession of “untaxed” guns will be quite severe. This section has two possible outcomes: the rednecked, gun owning, Bible-thumping, smoking, drinking, butter-and-red-meat-eating, bluejean-wearing, Limbaugh-listening, homophobic, racist domestic terrorists (description courtesy of Janet Napolitano and assorted government agencies) are in open revolt, and either win, or they don’t. My money is on the armies in Kevlar and Corcorans armed with up-to-the-minute genuine assault weapons, riding around in AP carriers and tanks, including the all-volunteer forces, the 100,000 or so Blackwater has, assorted UN “peacekeeping” forces, and the Canadians who are pledged to come to the aid of the president if asked. Oh…I forgot the two battalions of the Praetorian Guard assigned to the president’s personal use, the secret service, the FBI, Homeland “security,” and the BATF.
8. The depression and embargos on oil are so devastating that not even the government can muster the money to pay armies, and we drift quietly into The Greater Depression, with perhaps forty or more percent unemployment, irregular power services, little to buy in the stores, devalued dollars, cessation of Social Security and then drastic cuts in welfare, food, water, and fuel shortages, and a seething populace.
9. At some point, cauldrons roil over, the always-happy-to-riot sectors of “society” prevalent at Watts, Katrina, and Ike, and ghettos jump in happily, and the food supply is exhausted in the cities after three days, maximum. Millions die from heat, cold, thirst, tainted water, rampant disease, and assorted natural and man-made disasters.
10. In the fullness of time something on the order of 40,000,000 are dead from the aforementioned conditions, having argued with violent, hairy strangers, or been shot for fleeing like locusts from Detroit, Los Angeles, New York City, and Houston (for starters) to spread out over the land attacking farm houses and taking over small towns. The farms will lose their future crops in most instances, and little towns will be barren of food, as well. When the population has been reduced sufficiently, the remainder will eke out an unpleasant existence grubbing in the soil attempting to learn to grow plants with not many seeds available, learning to raise animals and slaughter them (that being illegal by that time), discovering that medical care is almost nonexistent and is paid for in chickens and barter is the established method of commerce since the value of the dollar is on the order of that in Zimbabwe, and the LE (Law Enforcement) officials will likely not have enough manpower to say wearily more than “You shot it, you bury it.”
There y’are, the ten things which exercise my mind the most. You decide which one you’re going to worry about, and I’ll come back later and address the problems one by one. In the meantime, divest yourselves of dollars. Turn them into anything durable which you will need later.
Drearily yours,
Linda Brady Traynham
November 16, 2009
Quite the hula!
Did you happen to catch the recent issue of “Mad” magazine?
Alfred E. is on the cover, quite down & out, leaning against a building in a downscale part of town.
He holds a sign: Will Worry For Money
Did all these people, the rednecked, gun owning, Bible-thumping, smoking, drinking, butter-and-red-meat-eating, bluejean-wearing, Limbaugh-listening, homophobic, racist domestic terrorists (description courtesy of Janet Napolitano and assorted government agencies), move to Idaho?
Thanks for the laugh, Steverino. I hadn’t seen that one.
Shooters, I had actually forgotten writing that article a few weeks ago, but it makes a good intro to the two-parter on why very few will be able to flee the cities and support themselves by hunting during the interregnum.
Today’s fun is the threat of war in Yemen, tribal warfare at its worst, invading an area because part of one’s tribe lives there as the excuse. By that logic we could lay claim to practically any land, ourselves. By odd chance there is oil there, so the Saudi rulers have no trouble figuring out who is right.
Apparently the tribe was missed when old King Saud unified his kingdom by marrying a ranking female from each tribe. There are now over a thousand princes who resulted from this ancient form of diplomacy, but like the slighted fairy in the tale, old resentments linger. They feel, no doubt, that if the Queen of Sheba was good enough for Solomon one of their beauties back in the twenties was good enough for a petty warlord with ambitions–successful ambitions. Princes are also expensive, and Saudi Arabia has its problems keeping the peasants pacified and supporting they royal family. My take is…this isn’t our war. For once let’s have the sense to sit back and let some raid and some make threats and they can settle their family squabbles without our blood or money. Tribal wars are never won conclusively short of total destruction of the enemy. Nassar found out that Yeminis are pretty tough dudes, and if they appear to be losing they have only to disappear into the empty quarter. “Who, me, boss? An insurgent?” Still, the Saudis may be able to beat them, but chances are they will get into longterm guerilla warfare they will not enjoy. Yup, let’s just sit this one out.
This has all the possibilities of the tragicomedy diplomats waged before the Navy and Marines went to war and wiped the ground with the Barbary Pirates. If we get into it, I have every faith that the current state department can foul things up as royally as happened in the eighteen hundreds. It is OUR turn to sit back, eat popcorn, watch others squabble, and lay bets. After all, this is a family feud.
My money is on Yemen.
Cordially, Linda Brady Traynham
.
You have a great sense of humor.
But number 7 sticks in my craw, like a bad chew.
As a peace loving type, I think you overstate the potential of our beloved government. Not to be incompetent or create disaster but to hold together. Too many CIA are afraid of the dark, FBI that cannot hold for a steady shot and BATF can start a fire with help. But do you really think people do not know who they are?
I think the military industrial complex turns on this city government when it collapses.
Cities are toast, granted, I do not even want to live downwind.
No one talks about those suitcase nukes G W’ya mentioned or our foreign enemies just a waiting..
Yup, the future is looking bright.
Dear Robert: I recognized your style and good sense immediately. Thanks for writing! Number 7 sticks in my craw too, and I appreciate your sanguine (as in hopeful, not bloody) appraisal of the alphabet soup guys. I laid myself open to a raid to confiscate my supplies when I broke Rule # 1 and began writing publicly. (Can you believe that in 6 or so months I’ve racked up 20,000 hits on Google?! How absurd, but what fun. W&G counts more than you Shooters may have thought.) What I worry most about IS that a SWAT team will descend eventually and haul off my toys, abuse my livestock, and throw my adorable self into Gitmo without my cigarettes and wi-fi. I think I have everything covered other than full-blown dictatorship, but I’m not one to cower before anything except snakes and dentists so I chose deliberately to do the JOHN HANCOCK thing. You won my heart with your line about the length of your drive and guest list and the temperament of your puppy-hounds. Please ask Gary to send me your e-mail address, if you are interested, or tell him he can give you mine–which really isn’t all that hard to find. Chuckle…I was writing about the suitcase nukes this very night. I’m ready to carve off a nice hunk of intellectual real estate (spurt of laughter; that is something of an exaggeration) amongst the Doom & Gloom crowd. I’ve worked out what the social structure is quite likely to be “if.” You’re in good shape if I’m right, and I usually am. DO you live down wind of HOU, DFW, NYC, DC, LAX, CHI, or SF? I’m about a hundred miles NW of Houston but the danger isn’t particularly high. I hope. I haven’t made a fallout shelter for the cows, goats, and chickens yet! You make me smile, Robert, because I like your mind and your humor. Consider this your personal invitation to write me and see if you want to be a member of the Texas Ring. No dues, no decoder rings, and no obligations. Members get to read a lot of things we Sharpshooters (I can’t say “ringers!”) write that Gary hasn’t room to put up, and I hope everyone knows to go to http://www.thetexasring.com. We have some rather lively conversations amongst ourselves–Go back to sleep, Janet Napolitano; we aren’t conspiring, just having fun. All I want from the government is to defend our borders and leave me alone. Linda
Hi, Robert…Dang it! I cut it too fine in the answer I just wrote you and the infamous spam filter sequestered too many words of appreciation and an invitation to write to me privately to see if you want to party with the rest of The Texas Ring and me. As I said, no decoder rings or mystic passwords or dues, just access to a lot of things we write that Gary doesn’t have room for (some of which end up at http://www.thetexasring.com.) Camaraderie, discussions not suitable for articles because they aren’t long enough..just plain fun. Shooters, we aren’t talking Captain Billy’s Whiz Bang, but the way you get invited to play with the Ring is to leave someone a real’ intelligent and/or amusing comment. Seriously. Other than a long term friend (Richard Marmo) and Gary’s find of the magnificent Tex Norton, that’s how every Ring member got to be one. If I ever catch up I’m going to reel off some barstool numbers. If you haven’t checked out the Whiskey Bar up on the menu, Stoolies were asked to leave a quote, and there are some wonderful ones. How about, “It is better that my child should be bad than that I upset myself!” (Epictetus) “The alternative to changing our lives is ceasing to exist?” I don’t have a barstool number; I’m a genuine barback bucking to be a bier madchen. In the fullness of time Adam or Gary will loose what I wrote on the unsuspecting world. Hugs, Linda
Gary! Adam! Jessica! Mama’s gonna say something pungent in a minute. I have written the terrific Robert twice tonight and your spam filter keeps snagging my replies. Unless you want your in-boxes deluged with complaints, let my children go! Robert, for the third time, I recognized your name and style immediately, you wiped me out with your clever (and doubtless truthful) comment about the length of your drive and your gues tlist and the temperament of your hundele, and you have been invited to write to me personally, lucky chap. (Well, some people like to and enjoy my responses, elitist scum that I am? Family joke!) Stern looks, crew. Hugs, Linda
Shooters, Robert made my day with his comment on the alphabet soup guys. I only fear three things: snakes, dentists, and that a bunch of Corcoran-booted thugs in full body armor will show up waving Executive Order 11921 and AK-47’s and walk off with my collection of dried potato products (for an Irishman there is no worse threat than that, with taking the Bailey’s Irish Cream and Clancy Brothers Albums in second place) and spices, along with the goat girls and our beloved mini-moo cows. Ah, still…life is so beautiful and joyous, friends. Prepare for the worst but hope for the best.
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Hey Linda
I laughed at the idea of Canadian forces crossing the border to “help” your guv’mint to maintain order when the rednecks revolt. Guess what, it’s not gonna happen. The Canadian Military is more rednecked than even Texans, Alaskans and the Mountain Hillbilly states. Right now, the Canadian government is passing a bill to throw out the long gun registry. The U.S. is doing the opposite. Canadians are staying away from vacationing in the U.S. as much as they used to. One thing us Canuckleheads notice when visiting, is that your military is present and seemingly everywhere. We hate that, it is a sign of a lack of freedom. Our police force does a great job of keeping order as it is a national police force. We travel and transport people and material across our provincial boundaries without any restrictions.
Best Regards, CanadaNorth
Thanks!!! This offering has totally made my day! I’m forwarding it to all on my contact list in order to 1) try to, once again, educate them as to what may be in store and 2) to show them that I may not be so deluded as they seem to think. Hahaha.
I moved to this area of SE Tennessee over 40 years ago, thinking it would be a nice place to live and, more importantly, a refuge for the family in the difficult times I sensed were somewhere on the horizon. When I was young and fit, we lived “off the land”, drank spring water, heated with wood, grew big gardens, etc. I’m in no way a seer or prophet, but I “knew” even back then, the times we’re facing today would visit.
I agree with all your 10 points and, like Robert, swallow and blink in earnest when it comes to #7. I do agree with him that, as Jim Kunstler has long observed, the complex monster that government has become is not going to be effective very long into a real disruption of fuel and energy , utilities, food supply and other “services” it now provides. Some attempts might be made to “control” larger urban areas but, down in the boondocks, we’ll just hope that local law and order prevails and concentrates on crime prevention and protection, rather than totaliarian “law enforcement”. I just hope the community I live in is the kind that will support those efforts. And if it gets really bad, I sorta think cops in small-town/rural areas are going to be more concerned with the safety of their own loved ones than they are seizing my weapons, tools, food and “money” (now that’s another interesting area I hope you’ll address sometime).
If current dissatisfaction and anger should morph into all-out insurrection, I can’t see federal armed forces doing much, especially in outlying areas. Even quasi-military groups such as National Guard will, I believe, behave as I expect cops will; ie, defending home, family and their neighborhoods instead of following “orders” from an impotent Washington. I think this will be true here and, having lived a year or two in Hood County, TX, I suspect it will be there, as well.
Robert, I don’t worry much about suitcase nikes from abroad. When things crash, the US isn’t going to look like much of a prize worth taking over. Enemies abroad will, I think, just sit back, eat their popcorn and watch the tragic drama unfold. I worry more that some maniac in Washington will decide that a tactical nuke is the most expedient way to solve the problem of an out of control Atlanta or__________(fill in your favorite here).
I’m a 65-year-old retired RN. Good health and history leads me to think I might live long enough to see some of your “10 Things” play out. Part of my “security plan” is that I might be valuable in a collapsed medical system. Whatever plays out, I’m preparing on several fronts and eating my own brand of popcorn.
Best of luck and, hopefully, peace to all.
Bill
How does one gather a family together….and get them toooooooo listen and discuss any one of these points….
All of which will happen….in due time……
Michael:
This is one of the most fundamental and heart-wrenching questions of our times, as it goes to our desire to protect those we love and care about. It’s one I struggle with constantly, especially as it concerns my grown children, who may “have a clue” but don’t seem willing or able to act on their knowledge , intuition, whatever. They certainly don’t seem attentive to my “gentle proddings”. It may be a case of being more comfortable with the devil you know vs the devil you don’t, or a reaction against being raised by parents with a survivalist mentality. That, and the fact various future scenarios are so absolutely horrific that a state of cognitive dissonance sets in. Comfort is so seductive.
I’ve tried every means of “education” I can conceive of, from calm, rational discussion to pleading to screaming and shouting. One has to take care not to provoke alienation. I have no definite answer…yet.
I’ve seen this issue discussed on several other blogs. One of the most interesting was on the “Life After the Oil Crash Forum”. Maybe you could find that thread in the archives, which are extensive. Wish I could send you a link. At any rate, it’s a concern of many “awake/aware” folks and one which will receive more attention as time goes by. The question for us is: just how much time do we have? Don’t give up, try to be reasoned and caring and, always, come to family from a center of love.
Linda: Any chance you could start a thread addressing this concern, specifically? Your insights are always welcome and appreciated.
Bill
What wonderful shooters you are! Bill, you bet we can discuss such things in depth, and I have an article I’ll finish today which all of you should love, my prediction that we will revert to a semi-feudal society composed of great estates, landed gentry, yeoman farmers, a small artisan class (coopers, farriers, cobblers..) and a VERY large servant class…in worlds which shrink to about 25 miles in circumference, 25 miles being what can be covered by horse and wagon in one day for a trip to the market. Will get back to you later; I can no longer put off trips to two feed stores, the used book store, the hardware store, and the grocery store. It is hard to get me off the place as many as three times a month, but this is one of them. Ugh. Thanks again, and you (plural) will get hand-crafted individual answers tonight. You have made my day! Linda
What a day, guys…I got dragged away from my beloved ranch and my fantastic responses here and the article I wanted to write…and here it is two in the morning before I get back to you. Nobody ever had greater readers than we do here at W&G! Bill, you bet we can discuss anything you want to at any length you like, and you obviously have a great deal to contribute. I can’t wait to answer all of you as thoroughly as you deserve, but the joy of my life is about to drop his nose in his book and I don’t like for him to go to bed alone! I like him to keep thinking I’m indispensible to his happiness and a great teddy bear.
Canada, GREAT to hear from you again. How beautiful your place must be with the changing seasons.
I’ll start with you first, tomorrow. It is a treat I kept promising myself all day. Hugs, Linda
Dear Bill in SE Tennessee and Michael: How to educate the next generation has long been a serious problem, and you are doing the right things. Keep at it…and how about a simple “survivalist weekend?” Spring it on the kids suddenly! Cover all the light switches and water faucets with masking tape. For the weekend no one goes anyplace they don’t walk and cannot use any device which requires electricity other than those operated with batteries. They may bathe if they do it with a cold water–and the “price” of each gallon of water is to carry a gallon jug up and down stairs for five minutes. That stands in for fetching water from creeks or wells, and is a big indulgence. Clothes must be washed in the bath tub and dried hanging over anything reasonable. No special trip to the grocery store ahead of time; what you have on hand usually will just have to be all there is! IF you have candles and a fireplace they can talk and have popcorn in the near darkness. Keep a tally of all the times they want lights, the microwave, their hairdryers, a hot meal, and things they think are free and will always be there. No central heat until the temperature hits 60, and no AC unless it is over 80–inside. They can get used to smelly bodies and the realities of shortages and making choices. With luck they won’t turn you in to Child Protective Services! Hugs, Linda
Dear Canada North: our back up plan to your assurances is that MDC is an honorary member of the Princess Pats! Have you noticed that we are not allowed out of the country without a passport or “trusted traveler” (good God!) document? Canada and Mexico didn’t insist; Washington did. Your PM DID promise Dubya Valentine’s Day two years ago that he would send troops…if DC returned the favor if Montreal asks for it. Is maple syruple produced in your area? Swap you the weight in genu-wine ranch grown Texas pecans fur some. Good to see you back. You keeping up with us over on http://www.thetexasring.com? Haven’t I had fantastic mail on both the articles up here?! Regards, Linda
Dear Tennessee Bill: To my delight this article was picked up on “Life After the Oil Crash” Forum, and if/when the Crash Team approves me as a commentor (!) we can all pick up there. I’ll be writing as Rancher Lady, my nom de e-mail and blog. My two highly-achieving “children” think “Stinky Mum” (what the gorgeous very senior mortgage banker, 34, calls me) and “Madre,” from the son (26) who will be CFO of a big corporation IF the world continues another decade, think is an adorable nut. They are resigned to my bizarre (to them) life because we are HAPPY. They preferred it when I lived in a MacMansion and was bored out of my mind, but they love seeing me more than contented in a small, elderly house we are renovating and expanding ourselves, get a kick out of the animals (Tiffany becomes Elly May Clampett for the duration of a visit immediately!), and accept that my choice not only gives me joy but is long-term protection against anyone trying to make me live with one of them or go to a fate worse than death, a retirement home. It is far less expensive to employ three ranch hands/maids than to pay three shifts of baby sitters or attempt to put me in a rest home. (Try it and Mum will leave everything to the Society for Creative Anachronism!) God willing I will die on the ranch a quarter of a century hence, still feeding carrots to goats and treats to the cattle, having protected all those I love through the Fall of the American Empire. My daughter will become Countess after me, my son the head of the armies, and one of Charles’ sons will be the equivalent of Centurion Major. All we can do is ask our children to explain WHY they think preparing for the worst is foolish. Our preparations will either save our lives and lead to the great luxury of ample food we can protect, or they are capital improvements which will keep the land supporting hired overseers until our demise. Pushing length, hope to hear from you again. LInda
Wow – I’m NOT crazy after all… Now, back to my garden, children, and “homestead”.
On getting the kids to pay some attention to the situation, matching words with action might help. For example, nudge them with a silver or gold coin to fondle for their birthday or holidays. It helps them focus fleetingly on things like real value, was well as wondering how old grampa is and where the main horde is located…
Hey Linda! Those are some great articles you write. I’ve picked up quite a few of your tips ‘n ideas in the past few months…thank you. I’ve been prepping as well as I know how for a while now and am just concentrating on foodstuffs from now on. I figure that ‘it’ ain’t coming anymore, ‘it’ is already here and sure looks ugly from my porch. I just want to give you a little heads up on that latoc forum. There is a lot of great archived info there and some real fine people. But….just so you know….there is a strange crowd that has taken the place over as of late. Kind of a mix of uber-pc and incredible foul language, especially from the fairer sex. You’ll see what I mean. Thanks again for your writing. Isn’t it amazing what we can get for free?
Some people actually do know how to farm and hide guns.
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