Three Views of TEOTWAWKI
Jan 28th, 2010 | By Linda Brady Traynham | Category: Featured, Morning Whiskey
The most fundamental decision factor when making investments is each individual’s belief of what the future holds — that being what Technical Analysis was designed to read, and it worked very well until we got to enormous funds skewing the true input of what Joe and Susie Invester are thinking.
The “just another bump in the road” contingent holds that the USA has always recovered from adverse economic situations before and will triumph again. Justice Litle, in Taipan Daily, speculated on possible causes for a sudden surge in purchases of long-term treasuries, today. Those who see “green shoots” have a knack for seeing hope everywhere and would probably buy kerosene futures if confirmation of an impending EMP attack were available.
Those of us on the Doom & Gloom side vary primarily in how fast we think things are going to fall apart, how painful the bumps on the way down will be, and how long it will take to recover if we ever do. We’re a jolly bunch, and our prognostications range from the most sanguine (the Greater Depression dragged out to Japanese lengths), to violent upheaval following the collapse of either government or the dollar, to dicatorship, and we make our bets accordingly. I certainly hope for the best (the dismal prospect of the Greater Depression), but I hold with preparing for the worst.
Today I’m going to give you the basics of the three major proponents of D&G. In order to prepare for this I gulped down James Howard Kunstler’s World Made By Hand and The Long Emergency, James Wesley (sic) Rawles’ massive Patriots and far more useful and readable How to Survive the End of the World As We Know It (or, How to Survive TEOTWAWKI), and William Forstchen’s brilliant (and devastating) One Second After dealing with his predictions of how a nation-wide EMP strike would affect life in a small town in North Carolina — such as the one he lives in. In my spare time I read at least a dozen lesser-known authorities, one of whom devastated me with the advice, “Never be a refugee.” Yikes. He’s right: if the worst happens, be prepared to hole up wherever you are rather than hitting the roads when/if this becomes the new Balkans. If you haven’t got a destination in mind, stay put.
Mr. Kunstler, well known to readers of W&G from his weekly appearances, set his World Made By Hand in a small town in upper state New York similar to the one he lives in, Mr. Rawles centered his views on preparations made deliberately ahead of time to build a survivalist/”prepper” community in the West, where he lives, while Mr. Fortschen’s saga is set in a locality similar to the one he has chosen as an abode.
JHK is an urban architect — and a romantic, an analysis that might startle his many fans and probably the fiery Mr. Kunstler himself. His ideal appears to be Rothenburg am der Tauber at least forty years ago, a tiny, entirely self-sufficient town with quaint cobblestoned streets, beautiful wrought iron (frequently gilded) signs, and jolly villagers going their way doing their (literally) daily shopping and putting their purchases in string bags they carried home on foot. The hills around were dotted with vineyards, farms, and fat cattle, with the occasional whiff of human waste collected for fertilizer. Commerce was limited to the local grocer, pharmacy, gasthaus, restaurants, and the shop that sold beautiful etchings by Professer Geisler and his student, Herr Geisendorfer. The only local industry other than wein was tourism, which provided the few extras the inhabitants — living in multi-generational families in houses they had owned for centuries — wanted, the few things they did not produce themselves, and some contact with the outer world. Rothenburg had all the charm of Brigadoon and I visited it frequently during the decade I lived on the Continent. It would be interesting to know what has become of Rothenburg following the influx of Turks and Muslims.
JHK envisions a similar future for America, small “walkable” towns with most of the population living and working in the country, but since I’m not an urban architect I don’t see how to get around the fact that our small towns are also already completely balanced and neither want nor can incorporate doubled populations in order to shut down the suburbs — and there aren’t enough of them, either, to empty Houston, Dallas, Chicago, LA, NYC, etc., even if the inhabitants wanted to go, which they don’t. Suburbia was our attempt to recreate the agrarian lifestyle of our forebears. It didn’t work.
All the services the locals in small towns want enough to pay for them are already provided, and — just as in Colonial days — youngsters move out to search for employment and return only when they inherit a family farm or one of the few businesses in town. I admit freely that I dote on the “ideal” town, one which has two grocery stores, two feed stores, a beauty parlor (only city folks have “hair dressers”), a drug store, two banks, two vets, a couple of doctors, one of those new-fangled dollar stores, a small hardware store (such as Ace), a used book store open three afternoons a week, and assorted eateries: a burger joint, Mexican, a fried chicken place, and a “real” restaurant that serves chicken-fried steak. Mel Tappan, referenced later, advised moving to a town of 2,000, preferably, but no more than 5,000. If we had enough land there Charles and I would return to our place in Hamilton immediately.
As the sign in the general store said long ago, “If we don’t have it, you don’t need it.” There is always a Walmart within twenty-five or thirty miles to cover rare other needs. There are few jobs other than at the two or three convenience/gas stations, there is little housing available, and the infrastructure is quite sufficient for a stable population but no more. The problem is that with the explosion of the population the locals lose far more than the newcomers gain. Local merchants lose when the immigrants import their suburban lifestyles and taxes soar to pay for larger schools, more “social” services, and an increase in electricity and water availability.
World Made By Hand disappointed me greatly because I had expected a volume full of the triumph of man in the face of adversity — in other words, a world full of things made by hand. JHK’s population is really very lucky since the worst it has suffered is several epidemics and having the local biker gang (which comes to a bad end) sequester the local garbage dump to mine for glass, wood, nails, and so forth. In general violence is encountered only when the natives travel beyond their Brigadoon. I (note the emphasis) found them a feckless, dismal lot given to moaning over the loss of relatives and television. The book opens with the Narrator (no hero, he) and his best friend (a minister who loses his faith following severe physical abuse) discussing the minister’s idea of building a better central hand-laundry facility. It ends with the Narrator considering the idea.
Kunstler shows us a world without hope.
A “sect” of about 75 comes to town and buys the local crumbling high school for a “compound.” Brother Jobe arouses every suspician that he and his followers are genuine nuts of the sort that will remind you of ever-sleazy televangelist you ever saw by mistake. The one successful resident is the local cattle baron shunned by the populace. HE has the skills and materials to produce electricity and uses it for his own selfish purposes! HE has the ability to barter for wheat, which will not grow locally due to a rust infection. (The locals complain a lot about cornbread.) He throws a terrific party for the whole town, which pigs out on genuine hotdogs, hamburgers, and real rolls…but the Narrator still won’t work for him. The city water supply (which the Baron does not use) is in danger, and who comes to the rescue? The Baron has the ability to cast concrete pipe, which he donates. His men and the Brothers do all the work, including clearing a blockage of a massive tortoise shell and a large, decomposing coyote. Yech. And do they get a parade or universal thanks? Nope. Funniest thing…whenever there is a problem, Brother Jobe sends horses, wagons, and strong young men with useful military skills. You all know me: if we must have TEOT-WAWKI along these lines, I want to be the local Baroness. The rest of them — other than the semi-Amish group — weren’t having any fun.
The cream of the jest is that the Narrator’s golden dream is…to own a horse! Thus proving that peak oil may remove the luxury of private transportation, but nothing will ever persuade Americans that this isn’t a necessity. (Me? Not only do I already own horses, but my plan is to develop external combustion engines. If I ever need them I don’t think anyone will be inclined to listen to the Greenies.) Being eccentric is a lot of fun; my neighbors didn’t even blink when we bought a refurbished doctor’s buggy, although the local city council won’t let me drive it to town. Horrors, the horsie might potty on the streets.
The Long Emergency covers JHK’s views of the ultimate evil, abundant, relatively inexpensive fossil fuels. Since he is James Howard Kunstler and I’m Mrs. Nobody Much in Particular, let it suffice that my candidate for the worst thing ever to happen to the world was the Industrial Revolution, which lead to increased food production and moving the bulk of the exploding population into cities where many of them became drones. He is, of course, correct, but a good point can be made that the situation was moderately containable until whale oil was replaced by crude oil.
I have already covered the basics of Patriots, wherein a large group of college students decides (in 2000) that a “retreat” is necessary, as proves the case in 2009. Their focus is almost exclusively on being able to defend themselves against raiding gangs, and they are very good at it. The second half of the book involves their triumph over UN forces which I find unlikely. Mr. Rawles’ survivalblog makes clear that he is in favor of growing gardens and raising crops, neither of which The Group does. If the price of survival is softened wheatberries for breakfast day after day, a pot of yummy rice (period) for lunch daily, and the venison or elk du jour other than a rare MRE for dinner, I may have to rethink the issue in terms of Petronius, Arbiter Elegantarium. Rather than leading a life that bleak — which isn’t necessary—opening one’s veins looks like a fairly reasonable alternative. Three years after “the change,” and at least six or eight after people have been living on their secluded forty acres, The Group has yet to grow anything more complicated than herbs and a little fruit and owns no livestock at all. Mr. Rawles makes me feel very inadequate (since I don’t own so much as a stick of dynamite and doubt my competence to construct a modern Molotov cocktail even if I had empty champagne bottles, hunks of plastique, and spare gasoline, which I don’t), but I still think The Group would have done better to buy a little less razor wire and get a couple of goats and a few chickens. Mind, nobody has a higher opinion of razor wire than I do (at least in theory; I don’t own any), but omelets and fresh milk would have improved their outlook and nutrition quite a bit.
Rawles shows us a world where dog eats dog, the vile eat each other and dogs, and the good guys survive grimly.
I can certainly recommend How to Survive TEOTWAWKI. It isn’t as heavy on prayer and instructions on how to construct IED, but it is an excellent basic presentation. Even green-shooters ought to read something like it if only to consider hedging a few bets.
Mr. Forstchen is a well-known author who may not have come your way. He is known for superb Science Fiction and — frequently in collaboration with Newt Gingrich, who is a whale of a historian whatever you think of his politics and his barber — the author of “alternative” histories. You know…what if Stonewall Jackson had gotten medical attention promptly or Bobby Lee hadn’t tried one last assault on Seminary Ridge?
Mr. Forstchen depressed the living whey out of me working through what might happen in a population of about ten thousand in a defensible little town high up in the Carolina mountains. If you were only going to read one of the three authors, I advise William Forstchen, whose grasp of psychology, tactics, politics, and the full range of woes that sudden loss of power would cause are superb. The book ends a year after EMP are set off in three areas of the world, and our reluctant hero has managed to preserve about 20% of the townspeople, sometimes by means I much prefer not to discuss, although they fall short of cannibalism. According to the Colonel who shows up with the first supplies, only twenty-five million survived in the entire USA. I expect on the order of 40%, but Mr. Forstchen caused me considerable pause.
Forstchen shows us what would happen in hospitals and nursing homes, how very dangerous refugees would be — even polite ones — and the difficulties even good people would have in trying to maintain any sort of distinction between private property and public need/greed. His characters cope with very practical problems such as how and where to bury hundreds of bodies when the backhoe doesn’t work and calories are restricted to 900 and dealing with a nearby big city whose mayor demands they take in five thousand of their inhabitants.
Basically I’m a simple, merry, little soul and I don’t want to have to spend most of my time and resources on the theory that everything we know may disintegrate into life being nasty, brutish, and short and everything we have subject to confiscation by government and/or other rude, well-armed strangers. I am offended. That isn’t supposed to happen to special little me or to these United States of America. We don’t want to have to turn away those in need or defend ourselves against looters…but if it comes to either Rawles’ or Forstchen’s worlds, that is what we will face.
Since the rest of you didn’t see fit to elect me Empress of the Universe, I must cope with what I think is and will come to be, and my view is that all three of the experts I have covered far more briefly than I would like to have done have at least a big hunk of the truth. The problem I pose for you is what might happen, and what could you do to ammeliorate the situation? What would you do in James Howard Kunstler’s world, other than be grateful that things were no worse? If you had a dozen like-minded friends and plenty of money would you retreat to your fortress, driving off bad guys and helping those you thought worthy? Could you band together and sacrifice together with your neighbors as Forstchen’s characters did?
It may be that I am wrong; Mel Tappan, who died nearly thirty years ago, thought that the symptoms we see now were at critical mass in 1980. Howard Ruff felt this way in 1980, too, and we are still staggering from disaster to disappointment. We got through Y2K without all the computerized records going down. My suggestion, as always, is that you make basic preparations for at least six months for your families, work out where you are going to hole up “if,” and consult Doug Casey, who had a terrific article in W&G yesterday. The best preparations are those we hope never have to be implemented. We don’t expect our houses to catch fire, but we buy insurance policies just in case. If there is even a possibility that your bank — or all banks — will fail, it makes excellent sense to buy silver and gold.
It would be easy to laugh at Mr. Tappan and Mr. Ruff because they were wrong prior to the election of Ronald Reagan — who certainly made his share of mistakes but averted disaster. Would that he had done more than postpone it. A better lesson is that we may have survived another thirty years of increasing debt, taxation, and regulatory abuse but that the wheels are more likely than ever to come off. It could it be that we can survive another year of politics as usual with a serious change of faces and policies in the November elections that ushers in twenty years of dismantling the Nanny State but I doubt it.
Regards,
Linda Brady Traynham
January 28, 2010
Linda Brady Traynham
Linda Brady Traynham is a former editor and analytical project report writer and is now a Whiskey & Gunpowder field correspondent on a ranch in the Republic of Texas. She studied Counseling at Boston University and got her Masters degree in Philosophy from the University of Hawaii.
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Thank you for this helpful piece. I have read many of your articles and have enjoyed them very much.
Although it is not a work of fiction, I can highly recommend “The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse,” by Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre. He lived through the collapse of the Argentine economy in 2001 and still lives there.
It is an enormously practical guide, especially for anything short of the Rawles/Forstchen vision. It is not especially well organized and contains some fairly glaring English errors, as the author readily acknowledges. As he says, it is not great literature, but this book has changed my entire mindset, which I believe may be the most important prep there is.
While speculation about TEOTWAWKI is a staple of fiction, it tends to share a key element with philosophies espousing central planning and the Total State: a profound lack of imagination regarding spontaneous processes by which people coordinate their actions.
All apocalyptic speculation shares this blind spot. It’s like a proponent of the government school monopoly who demands to know what market-based schooling might look like before considering it. The response, of course, is “no one knows, but it would be dynamic, unexpected, and the best option available.” Who could flesh out, in advance, the past several decades of incorporation of printed circuits into modern life?
My guess is that as the mal-investment of the past 75 year credit inflation binge unravels, there will be fireworks a plenty, both political and social. By the time we approach the low point in a couple years people will largely think our future is “The Road.” As is always the case, however, some people will find work-throughs and work-arounds, some will suffer and a few will do just fine. What we can count upon, however, is that our ancestors survived Ice Ages, and this won’t be anything near that bad.
Mass unemployment: Yes. Political lunacy: Certainly. Apocalypse? Not likely.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/cal.....-arch.html
Dear JR:
Thanks for the comment and appreciation, and particularly for the recommendation of Sr. Aguirre’s work which sounds etremely pertinent. That sort of “on the ground” advice is very likely to help us prepare to be comfortable when there are shortages. My favorite advice from the Balkans is “There is nothing as pleasant in times of war as an ample supply of toilet paper!” We can forgive Fernando less than perfect English and provide our own organization. Rawles “How to Survive TEOTWAWKI” isn’t fiction, by the way. You are absolutely correct: our minds are our most important survival tools at all times. Let me go see if Amazon.com has the book, since it is geared specifically to economic collapse. Regards, Linda
linda-
may i suggest also dmitry orlov who lived through and wrote about the collapse of the ussr.
jm
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Hi, Jay. Better yet, tell us what he said! Amazon has JR’s pick. There were always so many shortages in the USSR that I’m curious about Dimitri. If I were going to put together the bare bones “I don’t really believe I’ll need it” package I would accumulate three months’ food, at least a .22 rifle and 5,000 rounds, at least two five-gallon cans of gas for every vehicle, a good first aid kit, and a hefty supply of whatever luxuries were most important. At the very least I think we will see reduced inventory from disruption of international commerce. Never forget JFK ordered 3,000 of his favorite cigars and didn’t sign the embargo against Cuba until they got here! Why “so many” .22 shells? Because there is almost universal agreement that ammunition is the best of all trade goods, ahead of coffee, tobacco, alcohol, and even silver coins. Many of us have lived overseas and know what is like when raisins, pecans, and tortillas only show up in the commissary once every six months. Some families might think it a real hardship if chocolate chips were no longer available! For a writer being without extra printer cartridges and LOTS of legal pads and good pens would be a disaster. It doesn’t matter if you are a Sudoku addict (I’m not) or think microwavable popcorn is one of the three basic food group there is SOMETHING in your life you would loathe being without. If Patrick Cox (see today’s lead article) is right, the “worst” that can happen from stocking up on “necessities” is that you’ll save a lot of trips to town later. If Mr. Kunstler is right, think what a luxury my two-seater doctor’s buggy will be! There are a lot of those showing up on Craig’s List these days. One of Mr. Forstchen’s characters is very proud that her old Edsel and VW still run. The “sect” in Kunstler’s WMBH is clean shaven because they have the luxury of good scissors and strop razors, while the townsmen sport full beards and shaggy bowl haircuts. One of my more humorous stashes is dozens of bottles of my three favorite shades of nail polish! Regards, Linda
Just how bad can hard-core End of the World types get? Attempting to talk your doctor into removing your appendix “just in case!”
[...] Whiskey & Gunpowder – Three Views of TEOTWAWKI [...]
linda-
orlov sees collapse in the u.s. as potentially much worse than in the ussr; something more along the lines of kunstler. His reasoning: Life in the ussr was already very constrained due to extreme shortages of consumer goods. Therefore, the soviet people were accustomed to hardships and “making due” by stockpiling necessities when available and maintaining home gardens.
In his view, when the u.s. unravels, americans will be totally unprepared and unable to cope with hardship conditions.
If you don’t use your muscles, they atrophy quickly.
jay
Excellent point, thanks, Jay, as my darling Charles and I are discovering after six weeks of something on the order of viral bronchitis.. Our doctor says to be patient and we will recover our strength but it is distressing and annoying to two people who have always been exceptionally healthy. I suppose there are a lot of jokes about how to tell the new Russia from the Soviet Union. What will count more in the USA is the erosion of the national character. Hardship and the entitlement mentality do not go well together, and it would be fascinating to have some idea of what percentage of the population has made any reasonable preparations at all. Which reminds me I need to go find a scathing article based on the perennial country & western favorite, “A Country Boy Will Survive.” Y’all will like it!
[...] Three Views of TEOTWAWKI Those of us on the Doom & Gloom side vary primarily in how fast we think things are going to fall apart, how painful the bumps on the way down will be, and how long it will take to recover if we ever do. We’re a jolly bunch, and our prognostications range from the most sanguine (the Greater Depression dragged out to Japanese lengths), to violent upheaval following the collapse of either government or the dollar, to dicatorship, and we make our bets accordingly. I certainly hope for the best (the dismal prospect of the Greater Depression), but I hold with preparing for the worst. [...]
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Ron Simon, Whiskey Gunpowder. Whiskey Gunpowder said: Three Views of TEOTWAWKI: The most fundamental decision factor when making investments is each individual’s belief… http://bit.ly/9CfvSL [...]
I suggest you consider using a very fancy gun safe (with rifles and a bottle of your favorite high test) to present your nail products stash (along with some coins and bullion), and invite Nail Pro to do the photo feature exclusive: “Whiskey and Gunpowder Maven Prepares for TEOTWAWKI—Just In Case”. They could send the manicurists in the morning and the photographers in the afternoon and your lovely hands might well go viral!
This would truly be one of the most powerful crossover marketing thrusts in the history of advertising. Think of it: the website; the magazine; the nail products; the vault manufacturer (logo prominently displayed, above gorgeous hand); the Winchesters; the booze. Mind-boggling synergy.
Of course, you would have a ‘little piece’ of EVERYthing: like Revlon’s new “Armageddon Collection”; some other company would surely counter with “TEOTWAWKI Earth Tones”–under your license, of course; we would soon be reading “Angelina Arrives In Cannes Displaying Artificial Dirt Under Camo Acrylics”; The chosen vault company would launch a $7500 chromed-out His and Hers “Just In Case” with separate doors and combination locks, absolutely equal except Her side would have a plush-lined jewelry caddy and the trade-marked (LBT) nail product racks, whereas His would feature a lead-lined cabinet to protect those precious gigabytes of porn downloads from a sudden burst of radiation—”Just In Case”.
Feeling better?
[...] Three Views of TEOTWAWKI Those of us on the Doom & Gloom side vary primarily in how fast we think things are going to fall apart, how painful the bumps on the way down will be, and how long it will take to recover if we ever do. We’re a jolly bunch, and our prognostications range from the most sanguine (the Greater Depression dragged out to Japanese lengths), to violent upheaval following the collapse of either government or the dollar, to dicatorship, and we make our bets accordingly. I certainly hope for the best (the dismal prospect of the Greater Depression), but I hold with preparing for the worst. [...]
Dear David:
Your response appeared on my screen out of order, as happens occasionally. I never, ever fail deliberately to answer my mail as soon as I see it. I read Pat Frank’s Apocalypse Now long ago in a world so gentle by current standards that any catastophe other than nuclear war would have been classed as Sci Fi. The part I remember most vividly is the hero’s reaction when he comes across some “iron rations” he had tucked away in a footlocker, and his joy at finding a genuine chocolate bar.
I would appreciate it if you would explain your concept of “spontaneous processes by which people coordinate their actions.” That concept–taken cold, as it was given to me–is difficult to process. In rare cases some people pitch in together to fill sandbags when a river starts to overflow, but in general I have not noticed most of humanity being able to coordinate anything as complicated as a ham and cheese sandwich. I conclude that your phrase should probably have been placed in quotation marks and refers to some work or school of thought with which I am not familiar.
Neither can I associate “dynamic, unexpected, and the best option available” readily with most courses of human activity, even in–perhaps especially in–times of stress. Again, please explain precisely what you mean by such a description, with real life examples.
How frustrating it is to work without rich text! I do not know if your reference to “The Road” is a book I have not read or if it is meant as a way of saying “to flee.” I can agree readily that some individuals cope and some get lucky, but in general I think there would/will be far more instances of bad judgment, poor planning, and regression to Ice Age behavior.
“Apocalypse” in the Biblical sense, no, or at least beyond our knowing. The Ice Ages were cold and men were few, ignorant, and brutal, a condition they thought “normal.” They had not lost their ways of life, and it is difficult to imagine a Neanderthal with a sense of “entitlement” more complex than “Me want woman. Me deserve woman. Me take.” Is Bosnia a jolly place? Was life serene in Kenya or Ruanda during the troubles? How about Poland last century or the Middle East in almost any year? What do you suppose conditions are like in Haiti other than the obvious? I’m more inclined to believe that disaster brings out the worst in people and the inability to function far more than some mystical bonding and spirit of cooperation. Other than occasional riots most Americans have been at some distance from the horrors of war for 150 years. We see it on our TV sets, we donate money, we tut-tut about it, but it hasn’t really touched us other than as familiies with members in the military. TEOT-WAWKI predicates that it will be your children who are hungry, my children who are hundreds of dangerous miles away, your supplies at the mercy of your neighbors’ (and your government’s) behavior, and my cattle which will have to be protected from those who would eat or confiscate them.
I do not take pleasure in my thoughts of what is likely to happen “if,” David. I have not been swayed by the writings of others but reached my conclusions long before I ever heard of James Howard Kunstler. I was given my first book by Mr. Rawles little over a month ago. I am not a child frightened by ghost stories, nor do I feed my fears by consulting Internet survival blogs. I foresaw in 1992 that most widows in coming years would be far from secure given rising levels of inflation and taxation. I am a Philosopher, a Counselor, and an analytical project report writer and I would much prefer to consider TEOT-WAWKI as pleasurable reading from S. M. Stirling. I concluded over five years ago that social upheaval–whether anarchy or dictatorship– is all but inevitable. I have no vested interest in promoting fear (which is not how I view my writing), neither books for sale, nor products to offer, and I “consult” only in the sense that I answer all reader mail. I would like to hear how you plan to survive our equivalent of the Ice Age. Do you really intend to leave everything to chance? Are you resigned to whatever comes, feeling you can have no effect on the outcome? You sound like an intelligent man and write well, even though we are not communicating.
There are many instances of fleshing out, in advance, the probable outcomes of various courses of action, including critical path analysis. I prefer to start with “the worst that could happen is” and work my way through to the best defenses I can contrive, working up to where “the worst that could happen under this scenario is acceptable.” My training makes it unacceptable to ignore threats–or opportunities–when I identify them. It may amuse you to know that I am a Stoic, a follower of Epictetus, as well as influenced deeply by Ayn Rand and Jose Ortega y Gasset. I deal with what is and is probable as best I can contrive, and try always to do my thinking ahead of time. If–a gracious God tranting–our country is spared the consequences of political and social trends for the last 75 years “the worst that can happen” is that I have spent several years building a ranch which will turn a nice profit and I won’t have to shop for light bulbs, legal pads, or batteries for a very long time. The best that can happen if “The doom is come upon us!” occurs is that I have prepared sufficiently for the future to have the leisure to assess and analyze as events transpire. It is possible that I will have a Benjamin Franklin experience. When asked what sort of government the founding fathers had worked out, he replied grimly, “We have given you a Republic, madam–if you can keep it.” More and more that is what life is about, keeping what we have.
I will look forward to hearing from you.
Cordially,
Linda Brady Traynham
ranchLT4@gmail.com
[...] Three Views of TEOTWAWKI Those of us on the Doom & Gloom side vary primarily in how fast we think things are going to fall apart, how painful the bumps on the way down will be, and how long it will take to recover if we ever do. We’re a jolly bunch, and our prognostications range from the most sanguine (the Greater Depression dragged out to Japanese lengths), to violent upheaval following the collapse of either government or the dollar, to dicatorship, and we make our bets accordingly. I certainly hope for the best (the dismal prospect of the Greater Depression), but I hold with preparing for the worst. [...]
Seems to me this country has so much junk we’ll hardly ever run out of anything. The existing assets of Americans are excessive. Tools everywhere. No one using them. Food galore being wasted. Obesity spreading. Empty houses and stores – stuff no one wants to buy. Millions of movies and songs and sites till we’ve heard and seen our limit. We have already been stocking up for famine for the last 70 years. It just never comes. The creative engines of science, technology and industry keep churning out product. Americans are hooked on the global goods. The junk will keep coming, unfortunately many will have to sell their farm or their soul to pay for it.
The author needs to re-read _Patriots_ more carefully. Rawles’ “group” does grow crops, including extra corn to attract deer. They also gather edible wild plants. They have an herb garden for medicinal use. They have a tractor and farming equipment. They also aquire goats and chickens at the barter faire, a few years into the crisis.
Rawles focuses heavily on the concept of security. I just read Kunstler’s World Made by Hand. The townie characters in that book didn’t know the meaning of the word, and they suffered because of it. b
For Rawles’ methodology to work, one needs a functioning group of highly disciplined, switched on individuals living in harmony with each other in an isolated retreat during a highly stressful time. In my view, this is sheer fantasy due to the territoriality of human beings, especially where multiple married couples are concerned. The potential for internecine strife, bickering, petty and well grounded jealousies, flirtation-cum-adultery and arguments ending in discharged firearms is immense. A much better – and more affordable – option would be a passport and some cash stashed offshore, perhaps a modest apartment abroad too, to provide a lifeboat to escape domestic horrors. Short of that, relocation to a largely self-sufficient small farming village, where one can retain one’s own personal domestic space but enjoy the benefits of communal security.
Dear UALawdude: I noted somewhere that The Group acquired some goats at the Barter Fair, but tractors and farming equipment are expensive toys if not used. Medicinal and culinary herbs are a must, and Rawles mentions–casually, later in the book–that they had added sapplings to the existent fruit trees. My point remains valid: they did far less than they could have to expand their diets and increase their enjoyment of meals. Nice post. I agree fully that Kunstler’s characters were a bunch o dismal losers other than the Baron and the “sect.” I thought it was very sweet of me not to mention that the Narrator was having an affair with his best friend’s wife!
Thanks, LBT
[...] G.G. mentioned that both my novel "Patriots" and my latest non-fiction book were part of this round up book review: Three Views of TEOTWAWKI. [...]
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Dear Megadan: You wrote, “For Rawles’ methodology to work, one needs a functioning group of highly disciplined, switched on individuals living in harmony with each other in an isolated retreat during a highly stressful time. In my view, this is sheer fantasy due to the territoriality of human beings, especially where multiple married couples are concerned. The potential for internecine strife, bickering, petty and well grounded jealousies, flirtation-cum-adultery and arguments ending in discharged firearms is immense. A much better – and more affordable – option would be a passport and some cash stashed offshore, perhaps a modest apartment abroad too, to provide a lifeboat to escape domestic horrors. Short of that, relocation to a largely self-sufficient small farming village, where one can retain one’s own personal domestic space but enjoy the benefits of communal security>” Yes, and no. I endorse your suggestions of moving abroad–if you do not mind abandoning most of what you have and can rely upon your investments to continue to provide usable “cash,”–knowing where to find a farming village where you can pull your own weight, is certainly a fine option. Yes, I agree that those are highly desirable, but they can be quite difficult to implement. My biggest problem is suitable personnel, those who are worth feeding in return for what they can do. Jealousy, bickering, and back-biting are clearly anti-survival behaviors which could not be tolerated. The answer to the insecurity of jealousy has long been “the lady chooses,” and that settles it. If the worst happens there will be far more important matters than who sleeps with whom. A basic problem–no matter what N.O.W. says–is that there ARE far fewer “superior” females in this context than there are males. I adore my darling Charles, and vice versa, but if it came to a Waco situation I am certain that he would have no problem with me offering the comfort of my body to anyone who needed it, particularly if I expressed my love for him first. In the extraordinary event that I found MDC in bed with another female I would remove myself discretely, complacently certain that he had a good reason for it. The man adores me and knows full well how lucky he is that his feelings are returned. Chuckle…my view is that so long as my needs are met he is free to expend any excess libido wherever it will do the most good! I can love all the men who are worthy of it (not many) and what I do is MY choice, not his. He knows that and that I will not abuse my perogative frivolously. No, I would never do anything deliberately that made MDC unhappy, but he and I are thoroughly attune. If what it takes to keep a soldier functioning is some personal laying on of hands, I’ll make (chuckle) the supreme sacrifice.
Jealousy is simply insecurity, and we aren’t insecure. No, of course I do not condone casual immoral behavior, but I recognize that special circumstances may require temporary suspension of the rules. Think of it this way: Charles is my lode star, but I would not trust my life to anyone I would not be willing to bed if circumstances warranted it.
Please write me at ranch LT4.com if this answer does not, ah, satisfy you. LBT
Your review of World Made By Hand is excellent. I would like to point out that it’s well written and a smooth read. It doesn’t provide any useful ideas but it’s fine for recreation. I suspect that Mr.Kunstlers view of the world is colored by the area he lives in. My ancestors fled upstate New York around 1800 to escape the Poltroonism. I believe the laws and customs of New York are still tainted by that. I hope to read the other books but not yet. Thanks.
Dear Mr. Laubacher: Thank you for the compliment, and Mr. Kunstler is known for his ability with words and ideas. (Have you any idea how hard it is for one writer to say something nice about another without fearing she’ll sound condescending or impertinent?!) WMBH is a decided change from the articles I am most familiar with–having read them for a very long time–and The Long Emergency is at the other end of the spectrum. If your surmise is correct, whence cometh the reputation for “Yankee ingenuity?” Most of the characters just drooped around making no effort to improve their lots–which is probably what most people would do, but it didn’t keep me from feeling depressed and disappointed. I had expected imaginative solutions and determination to claw a better life out of the rubble, a lot more characters like the cattle baron. I approved thoroughly of him! Did you make a Freudian slip? I thought the Dutch were Patroons, although they may well have been poltroons as well. The Forstchen is chillingly like what I think we can expect if “I’m a dinner jacket” tosses a small dirty nuke at us next Thursday, and I think Rawles’ How To Survive is the most useful if you’re just looking for good basic “prepper” advice. Funny story on me: I concluded several years ago that TEOTWAWKI was coming, and it never occurred to me to see if there were any books or blogs on the subject! I just took off across country, planning what we would need to preserve our lives and our lifestyle (our admittedly odd lifestyle) “if.” I refused to contemplate a life without milk, cheese, eggs, and butter, so I bought cows, goats and chickens. Just common sense. Which reminds me that I haven’t got what I need to grow mushrooms, yet! If “it” comes to pass, the most tragic words will be “It was on my list but…” Thanks for writing. Linda